Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Perth Wild Cats (who are Red).
    V8 Racing Ford wins (Shell Cars, who are red).
    Labor wins landslide in Victoria.

    Is the country going to color red?

  2. If the sample is about 1,700, the margin of error is about 2.4%, so that’s a pretty comfortable result for Labor.

    My back of the envelope calculation for Labor 2PP:
    40 + 0.8*9 + 0.4*8 + 0.5*9 = 54.9 –> 55.

    However, since One Nation seems to be gaining votes from the Coalition, perhaps my assumption of 40% of One Nation preferences to Labor is off the mark. Similarly, is 50% of ‘other’ likely to go to Labor?

  3. Well Gladys doesn’t want Scotty anywhere near NSW, despite his improved personal ratings.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/25/gladys-berejiklian-says-scott-morrison-not-needed-in-nsw-election-campaign

    But we will see lots of Bill Shorten…

    Pointing to Berejiklian’s comments about Morrison, (NSW Labor leader, Michael) Daley said NSW was “the eye of the storm” for divisions within the Liberal party.

    “We’ve got a Liberal premier who doesn’t want a bar of the Liberal prime minister and the feeling’s mutual,” he said. “I mean that says everything, doesn’t it?

    “They don’t like each other, they don’t want to go near each other.”

    Daley called it a “debacle”, and said he would be campaigning with the federal Labor leader, Bill Shorten.

  4. One dangerous (for the saner part of the Liberal party) in Benson’s article

    The poll suggests that core Liberal and Nationals voters have abandoned the Coalition, with votes shifting again to One ­Nation, which recorded a significant two-point bounce to 8 per cent

    That should get the after dark crowd going.

  5. Never rains but it pours……………………….so much for my cautious 53-47……..Things looking currently very bleak for the LNP………………..

  6. If the results in Victoria are anything to go by, this Newspoll understates the likely actual vote for Labor by 2-3%.

    It’s absolutely no surprise the LNP are taking desperate measures. …and their prospects are diabolical.

  7. TPOF

    From last thread.

    Its not just polls. Its elections. Its looking like be Victoria progressive and you win the election.

    We will have confirmation when we have the NSW election. Running against Safe Schools and against an injecting room did not work for the LNP. Let alone running against renewables.

    Wentworth told us that’s not going to work in NSW.

    The timing is great for progressives after Victoria. Labor will be forcing the LNP to vote against progressive legislation. When the cross bench don’t support it becoming legislation the real LNP will show in votes giving Labor plenty of ammunition

    The LNP have lost control of the national narrative formally.
    🙂

  8. Confessions says:
    Sunday, November 25, 2018 at 10:57 pm
    Labor with a primary vote with a 4 in front of it.

    ….and a Lib PV starting with a 2…

  9. Asha Leu – at a guess, and if the overall trend turns out to be closer to the new Newspoll, I’d say that Ipsos always jumps around and has never been reliable, while Essential has always had the occassional rogue week of data, which used to get smoothed out more when they polled every week and published a fortnight’s rolling average. So, either the Ipsos and Essential had off weeks, or there really was some sort of pro Govt move in the general public a week or so ago for reasons that are hard to figure out, and that’s now dissipated.

  10. It would be madness I know, but if this trend continues surely the LNP would not consider yet another leadership change to save the furniture/help bail out the sinking ship/save the jobs of core LNP members?
    And to think it was not so long ago that many in the pulp press were calling for Shorten’s resignation, that he had “questions to answer” and the Albo was The Man for the Job……I wonder what the current spin will be?
    I think can now expect to hear nothing of Jobsen Growthe in the coming months but Lorna Order will sure get a lot of attention from the LNP.

  11. Tricot:

    I am hoping the Liberals continue to be influenced by Sky After Dark mob and Sydney News Ltd tabloid columnists and don’t cotton onto a leadership change to JBishop. Long may they continue to press for Dutton to take over.

    Or Frydenberg. Or Hunt. 😀

  12. TPOF

    As I think you might have said a while back. Scare campaigns only work when you have the voice of authority. Once you’re being ridiculed they can work against you.

  13. @Zoidlord: What should the EU-27 have done? Gone intransigent and refused Britain its sovereign right to leave an international association (however ill-advised leaving is)? Been hard-nosed and pushed for a Brexit deal both they and May know the Parliament won’t accept? Played brinkmanship games and said “No deal, no finance-sector access”?

    They’re struggling to hold themselves together as it is; between Merkel’s impending retirement, Macron being a lightweight, and a parcel of Central/Eastern European countries “electing” so-called ‘Eurosceptics’ (read: wreckers) under dubious electoral conditions, it’s like herding cats. Most especially with the wrecker-governments – none of them will back a hard line against a member leaving, when they’d mostly love to leave themselves!

  14. Steve Bracks on National Wrap tonight got it right. The Liberals don’t have any policies! And the few they do have no one likes!

    Bracks couldn’t believe the Liberals in Victoria didn’t go to the election with a comprehensive Education policy.

    The federal Coalition don’t have an Emissions and Energy policy.

    Their policy cupboard is bare!

    No wonder no one wants to support them!

  15. What a schardentastic set of numbers 🙂 As I said earlier I thought the previous polls were outliers. There have been no policy or delivery wins for the Liberals lately. Just a failed APEC summit. Where was the bounce in that?

  16. @IanBlackfordMP
    Parliamentary Leader of the SNP at Westminster.
    SNP Member of Parliament for Ross, Skye & Lochaber

    Scotland voted to remain in the EU. Our rights as EU citizens & rights to free movement throughout the EU must not be taken away. Westminster has to show respect for Scotland & our sovereign rights as defined by the claim of right.
    Ultimately independence the only option
    87 replies 383 retweets 830 likes

  17. To repeat, taking a line thru Wagga Wagga, Wentworth and now Victoria what the electorate are really looking forward to is the blunderbus Borrison making his concession speech – even more so than they were looking forward to Turnbull making the concession speech

    Imagine what the boisterous Borrison will say!!

  18. @Guytaur: What happens if someone like Annastacia P decides to run as a “Victorian progressive” in the next Queensland election? She’ll get pasted, that’s what. Why? Because Queenslanders are significantly more conservative than Victorians, and Andrews is about as far to the left as Victorians will stomach.

    I agree that the scale of Andrews’ win shows that most Australian people like progressivism “done right” – but you still need to make allowances for local electorates!

    Where it might work: Vic (obviously), NSW, SA, Tas.
    Where it definitely will not work: WA, Qld.

    So yes, by all means, Labor should run as “Victorian progressive” in the next Federal election – and write off Qld and WA, is that it?

  19. C@t:

    Yep, today’s conservatives have no plans for this country’s future. Nothing other than rent-seeking and kneeling at the feet of vested corporate donors.

    Sad!

  20. The L/NP is being sabotaged from within its own ranks. Vic libs blaming Canberra, Fed libs saying no way. Maybe Admin Sydney or Melbourne, no, no.
    Nothing to see anywhere. Definately nothing to be worried about.
    The chance to purge the ranks can be carried out at a leisurely pace from the opposition benches. Can the survivors put the good of the party above their own ambition? With Abbott, Josh and Dutton gone, Scummo knifed, who is left to be LOTO.? Difficult but necessary clean out ahead.

  21. Matt

    Are Queenslanders that conservative?

    The last election didn’t reflect that view. ALP dumped Adani to please the south east.

    I can’t comment on Western Australia other than to say WA Labor was fairly progressive in their campaign and the LNP and One Nation lost

  22. The Oz is reporting that Morrison is ‘still popular’ (very monty python black knight of them).

    Bolt, predictably, is claiming Guy lost because he was a lefty. He is one of my favourite satirists – he sends up RWNJs so well (he can’t be for real with this can he?).

    I hope they keep this level of delusion going all the way to the election – a national wipeout on a Victorian scale will be epic. Look at what a 6.5% swing in other states would mean – Victoria doesn’t have THAT many national seats at risk, but in Qld and WA we are talking a massacre. And the federal libs could get even bigger – more a Longman and Wentworth scale – swings against the, in many seats nationally. I reckon ScuMo’s bus will be able to fit all lib upper and lower house reps with some room for the press gallery at the rate they are going.

  23. @Matt

    Hello, It was Tories and fascist right bright idea to exit the EU, not the EU idea.

    It will cause chaos, as it has already done.

    lazy sods are lazy dods.

  24. Where it definitely will not work: WA, Qld.

    WA Labor took progressive policies to the last state election and won handsomely. Qld Labor won landslide election themselves after the LNP won its own massive majority only 3 years prior.

  25. Well glad to be wrong. I said 53-47. It’s just not happening for Scottie and Co. The LNP are fatally wounded. Policies most Australians don’t want. The Government is Terminal and must now choose the date the Australian people put it down.

    The longer narrative is weather the Liberal Party especially the Queensland inbred mongrel will survive or be spilt asunder after Labor takes power next year.

    A good weekend IMHO.

  26. @Swamprat: What utter rubbish from Blackstone’s mob of SNP ratbags. If Brexit – as awful as it is – constitutes cause for a second independence referendum and “Scexit” from the UK, then where does it end? When Scotland passes a referendum obliging X to become law and Aberdeen dislikes X, should Aberdeen secede thereby? When the Aberdeen Republic elects Candidate A as President, should Candidate B’s supporters in Torry form a new country of their own? How far does this “logic” extend before Thatcher’s old saying, “There is no such thing as ‘society’!” becomes tragically and literally accurate?

    “We don’t like the election result, so we’re seceding!” is pathetic ‘logic’. Scotland may be better off if it goes independent; I’ll not make any judgments on the larger argument.

    But Brexit is no reason to hold a second referendum.

  27. Matt

    “Blackstone’s mob of SNP ratbags”?

    _____

    Are You a UKipper?

    But your mob promised Scottish voters in 2014 that to stay in the EU they had to vote “No”.

    Then your mob voted to take England and Wales out of the EU.

    Your mob should make up its mind, or stop telling fibs.

    And Scotland (not Aberdeen) is a seperate nation to England and signed a Treaty of Union in 1707. It can democratically withdraw from that Treaty regardless of the views of the undemocratic mob at Westminster. 🙂

  28. Confessions says:
    Sunday, November 25, 2018 at 11:08 pm
    Tricot:

    I am hoping the Liberals continue to be influenced by Sky After Dark mob and Sydney News Ltd tabloid columnists and don’t cotton onto a leadership change to JBishop.

    The RW detest Bishop. They will not have her. Not at all. The contempt is mutual, I reckon. She could never unify them and will never get the gig as long as Dutton, Abbott, Morrison and the other Crazies have blood running in their veins.

    They hold Bishop, Pyne, Turnbull and the others responsible for everything that’s gone wrong.

  29. Frydenberg used the expression “Liberal family” a couple of times last night. I felt like retching. If they’re anything they’re the famille macabre.

    It sounded almost incestuous.

  30. @Guytaur: Wot? Last I heard, Annastacia P waffled about Adani almost up till Election Day, eventually announcing that her Government would veto (how?) any Federal loans to Adani as a halfway-between revoking the permits & concessions her Government had already handed them and going full-steam ahead. Palaszczuk herself is a member of the Right faction (Andrews is a member of the Socialist Left).

    @Fess: Speaking as a Western Australian myself, WA Labor’s signature policy was “We won’t sell Western Power”; it was certainly the one which got the most attention. A good policy – and good politics – but not exactly the height of progressivism. Following this, it was “We won’t build Roe 8 (etc.)”, which was also a good policy, but Labor claimed it was because no business case had been made, not for environmentalist reasons (I’m happy to have it sunk for whatever reason!).

  31. ONP up two points, Coalition down but no change in Labor, Greens. How will a rightwinger read that? I’ll tell you. “We’re bleeding to our right, we need to move right to stop the bleeding.”

    According to Bolt, the Victorian election was lost because the “left” were in control of the Liberal party. Frydenberg and others claim it was fought on state matters — so there’s no federal implications.

    I really don’t see a path from here to anything other than a strong, unmistakable Labor victory in the first half of next year. Their incompetence would be hilarious if they weren’t running the country.

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