Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Matt

    A good reminder on how conservative the country is came with the Marriage Survey

    It turned out that running an anti LGBTI agenda is much less vote winning than Mr Abbott and friends thought.

    Murdoch threw the Right Wing Fox style campaign in Wentworth and Victoria. Like previous elections a dismal failure.

    Safe Schools won votes. An injecting room won votes. Euthanasia laws. Protecting Woman going to abortion clinics from religious fanatics won votes.

    The political landscape has changed. Helped in a large degree by all those young people who enrolled to vote in the Marriage Survey.

    Even Conservative Queensland was less conservative than Christensen and Katter imagined

  2. The SSM postal survey is a useful proxy for how progressive or otherwise a state is:

    The Australian Capital Territory was the highest Yes voting state at 74 per cent to 26 per cent No. Victoria came second, with 64.9 per cent voting Yes and 35.1 per cent No.

    Western Australia was 63.7 per cent Yes and 36.3 per cent No, with Tasmania close behind on 63.6 per cent Yes and 36.4 per cent No.

    South Australia was next with 62.5 per cent Yes and 37.5 per cent No, followed by Queensland with 60.7 per cent Yes and 39.3 per cent No.

    The Northern Territory came just after on 60.6 per cent Yes and 39.4 per cent No, with NSW bringing up the rear on 57.8 per cent Yes and 42.2 per cent No.

  3. @Swamprat: I’m trying to avoid personally attacking other posters here. You should give it a go sometime.

    FYI, I am most certainly *not* a “UKIPper”, nor anything like it – I specifically stated I wasn’t going to come down on being pro/anti-independence (I figure that as a non-UK citizen unaffected by the result, it’s really not my place), only criticizing Blackstone’s torturous “logic” to justify another independence referendum after the last one failed.

    Also FYI: Scotland was historically a separate nation to England; however, the Treaty of Union – willingly agreed to by both Parliaments as the Acts of Union (England, 1706; Scotland, 1707) subsumed both into a single, new nation called “The United Kingdom of Great Britain”. This involved the dissolution of both the Scots and English Parliaments, with the Scottish Peerage guaranteed the right to seat sixteen of their number in the House of Lords, and the election of a minimum of fourty-five Commons members from Scotland, in perpetuity.

    Between the dissolution of both Kingdoms’ Parliaments, the abolition of any separate English or Scottish armed forces, the payment by the British Crown of both Scottish and English public debts and the explicit statement in the Treaty (and the associated Acts) that UK law overrode both English and Scottish law…

    …Scotland ceased to exist as an independent nation. As did England, incidentally. It might someday be re-established – perhaps it even should be re-established – but it can claim no continuity with the Kingdom of Scotland in any legal sense; rather, it would be a nation formed by the will of its own people.

  4. I think with the explicit failure of the neocon, trickle down compact, the ‘progressive’ or ‘conservative’ tag as it stood throughout the last 40 years is pretty unhelpful. I thtink voters are grabbing onto any promise, no matter how unlikely (Trump helping with healthcare, the UK Conservatives helping the NHS) so long as it promises to deliver what the neocon compact failed.

    I don’t think renewables are any longer a progressive / not progressive thing, I think Australians just support them, and Bill could promise to build out enough renewables in two terms to supply all the needs of the nation, and people would just say about time.

    Better more cheaper education. No brainer.
    Better more cheaper health. No brainer.

  5. @guytaur: I’m going to go over each part of your statement in turn.

    A good reminder on how conservative the country is came with the Marriage Survey

    It turned out that running an anti LGBTI agenda is much less vote winning than Mr Abbott and friends thought.

    Strawman alert! I didn’t claim the whole country was conservative, in fact I stated the exact opposite.

    On a secondary note, acceptance of LGBTQ people – while awesome and great – is not the be-all and end-all of progressivism. It’s one aspect, among many, of a progressive ideal.

    If “supports LGBTQ equality” was shorthand for “progressive”, then the Log Cabin Republicans wouldn’t exist. You can be pro-LGBTQ and still think that the Free Market holds all the solutions to our problems.

    Murdoch threw the Right Wing Fox style campaign in Wentworth and Victoria. Like previous elections a dismal failure.

    1. How is Wentworth relevant? I wasn’t talking about Wentworth – I was talking about whole States.
    2. I was holding Victoria up as a benchmark of progressivism in Australia – therefore, naturally, Murdoch-style scare campaigns wouldn’t work there. So what point are you trying to make here?

    Incidentally: Thus far, you’re in perfect agreement with everything I’ve said, whilst implying that I’m not. A little cheeky of you, yes?

    Safe Schools won votes. An injecting room won votes. Euthanasia laws. Protecting Woman going to abortion clinics from religious fanatics won votes.

    Yes. In Victoria. Would they in WA or Queensland? I doubt it – but we’ll probably find out one day!

    The political landscape has changed. Helped in a large degree by all those young people who enrolled to vote in the Marriage Survey.

    Young =/= progressive. While there’s some correlation, it’s a long, long way from 100% – and young people, being idealists, are more inclined to believe the various myths the free-market fundamentalists spread about. Why? Because the ideology of the free market is utopian, it’s simple to explain, and if reality worked perfectly according to theory it would actually be the best option. Young people are just as likely to be libertarian as they are “liberal”.

    Even Conservative Queensland was less conservative than Christensen and Katter imagined

    1. Queensland returned the second-lowest vote in favour of SSM out of the States (61%). Victoria returned the highest (65%). It may be less conservative than Christensen & Katter thought (although Kennedy voted “No” 53-47), but it’s more conservative than Victoria.

    2. SSM was never the wedge issue here that it was (is?) in America, at least not for the past 15 years; while everyone has their opinion on it, it’s much less a stand-in for “overall political beliefs” than it is there. You find a lot more otherwise-lefties opposing it (see the belt of heavy Labor seats voting against), and a lot more otherwise-righties supporting it (see the belt of blue-ribbon Liberal seats voting for) than is the case for either in America.

  6. Matt

    Good try.

    You obviously did not see the Palaczcuk government make abortion legal.

    The point is despite commentators telling us we are now a naturally right wing country the voting tells a different story. This means Victoria looks like it could be closest to what people want.

    Victoria’s exit polls were 55-45 to Labor on a 2pp basis
    This National Newspoll has the same figure. Looks to me like Victoria is a National mood with voters from that. Voters are rejecting tax cuts fear and division.

    The by elections have shown the same primary vote collapse for the LNP across the country

  7. As I said last week, Ipsos and Essential coincidentally got bad Labor samples in the same week. The inexplicable 4 points drop in Labor’s PV was a dead give away.

    Victoria was never going to have a close election. Competent first term governments just don’t. The size of the win is a little surprising, but no where near as big a shock as any sort of swing against Labor would have been.

    The next Federal election won’t be close either no matter how desperately the media and other Liberal spruikers try to convince you of it. Grotesque clownshows of riven incompetents playing pretend government might get one undeserved second chance, but not two. And this shitshow played it’s get out of gaol Trumble card three years ago.

  8. A great result in Newspoll tonight, yes the Liberal Backbenchers will be twitchy, but the latest info to hand is that they do not have any stomach for further change.
    Bishop tried to garner support a month or so ago, as reported here and failed to elicit any major interest among the Backbenchers who she had assiduously courted.
    Even more telling was that she could not get any support from the Frontbench. Not one.

  9. Tom says:
    Sunday, November 25, 2018 at 11:39 pm
    So is Lauren Order related to Jobson Grothe?

  10. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Parliament’s back today. I bet Morrison and Co. act like there hasn’t been a Newspoll.

    Although, as far as the PPM figures being good for ScaMo, I think people might be trying to tell him to stay as Opposition Leader, after Labor win the election.

    Just a theory.

  11. Here’s a balanced read of the result of last Saturday’s Victorian election by Paul Strangio of Monash University:

    Lacking the every-man touch of Bracks, Andrews has never seemed especially fussed about courting popularity and has mostly eschewed media contrivances to leaven his image. Neither has he sought to disguise that he is unambiguously a creature of the Labor Party, nor camouflaged his government’s closeness to the trade union movement.

    Only last month, Andrews boldly marched at the head of an ACTU-organised rally in support of strengthened industrial rights and improved conditions for workers. On Saturday night, he made a conspicuous point of thanking the labour movement in his victory speech. All of this has inflamed his detractors (not least News Limited’s Herald Sun), yet Andrews has remained defiantly unmoved.

  12. Tim Wilson is an IPA alumni, and in part responsible for the lurch to the Right of the party of Menzies. Having second thoughts?

    “Victorian federal MP Tim Wilson said that, at booths “all day”, voters raised issues including the federal leadership change and the party’s failure to come up with a national energy policy. “Their vote was not accidental, it was a very deliberate message,” he said.

    “We can either heed it and start finding how to advance our values through our diverse modern ­society, or keep trying to force ­reality through our priorities.”

    Mr Wilson, the member for Goldstein, spent Saturday on the polling booths in Melbourne’s Bayside suburbs which overlay his own seat, where safe Liberal seats including Caulfield, Brighton and Sandringham suffered swings of up to 6.9 per cent to Labor. “Soft liberal voters raised the negativity of the campaign, the absence of vision, as well as the federal leadership change, emissions policy and many of the party’s priorities,” Mr Wilson said.

  13. sprocket,
    Tim Wilson looked defeat in the face last Saturday as his usual smug demeanour collided with a full frontal shirtfront from the electorate.

  14. It was great to see so many Young Labor in the crosses to the seats on Saturday night. Even Young Labor as candidates who almost won! It seems as though Labor has cornered the market in computer geeks and nerds, wherever they may live, which even now includes the sons and daughters of the aristocracy.

    In fact, I saw this coming a while ago when I went out campaigning for Kristina Kenneally. I got into a conversation with the young woman who picked me up from the train station. It turned out she came from leafy Lindfield on Sydney’s North Shore. So I asked her why she had been drawn to Labor? Well, she replied, her parents had taught her good values and Labor best reflected them.

    Simple. As. That.

    The Go-Getter mentality of the Liberal Party certainly certainly doesn’t. And they are still mean and tricky and seeking to advantage one group over the other in order to leverage their votes and implement their sotto voce agenda, which they unleash upon the electorate if successful at an election.

    People have wised up to that and they just aren’t being fooled by it any more. Especially our savvy younger generation. Which is really good to see.

  15. Thanks Sprocket.
    What Tim Wilson said should not be news to Coalition leaders. Their focus groups would have provided the same message months ago. They just choose to keep doing what they know will fail.
    Are they under instructions from some higher authority?
    Rupert told them to get rid of MT because he did not want any form of emissions target spoiling his narrative, a narrative he also peddles in the
    He has already stated he will cope with an LNP loss next year. They are truly just pawns in his game.

  16. Okay, so I reckon an early Budget in March, full of goodies and so as to buoy the voters of NSW before they go to the polls, then the federal election in May.

    It’s not right and it will make Labor complain but the Coalition doesn’t care about Convention.

  17. Yes Cat, aside from getting maybe 1000 young people per electorate to enrol, Abbott and Dutton’s SSM ‘postal survey’ demonstrated a more than 60% ‘progressive’ electorate. The Liberal right and their media acolytes are still reeling from that revelation.

    And in denial (hence the ‘reconnecting with our base’ meme)

    And that young woman you met – this is why “advance australia” will never get anywhere. They may get money from donors but they just won’t get the boots on the ground.

  18. I’m rather enjoying the Coalition panic over the Vic defeat. They’re actually considering changing tactics and reviewing their policies! Perhaps they really do need to have ScoMo to listen, to hear and then to do.

    But Frydenberg persists with ‘Labor is lying’. It seems to be all he has.

    It will be fascinating to watch the bunfight as they try to reverse their climate and emissions (coal) policies, but they brag about the projected surplus budget and don’t seem to understand that it is their welfare cruelty that is also biting.

  19. But Frydenberg persists with ‘Labor is lying’. It seems to be all he has.

    Completely in denial of their own record. As Dan Andrews pointed out on Insiders, seared into the electorate’s mind is, ‘No Cuts to Health, No Cuts to Education, and No Cuts to the ABC or SBS’, followed by the Horror 2014 Budget where all those things became manifest in reality, plus more! Just straight out lies by the Coalition.

    I’m sure there’s probably even footage in some vault somewhere of Scott Morrison mouthing those same words as he went around the electorate in 2013.

  20. Tehan was just on TV saying they will have to point out to the Victorian electorate that Labor will be borrowing $25m and going into debt. Etc etc.

    He sat there straight faced, oblivious to the fact that the Nat LNP has cranked up 10 times that amount of debt in their time in office.

  21. PeeBee

    At least VicLab is using the borrowings to build infrastructure to benefit their growing population. FedLib is using it for godknowswhat expensive contracts.

  22. How Hockedonian of Tehan. And so unoriginal.

    As I commented the other day, the electorate gets the difference between borrowing to fund infrastructure for the future and cutting back and not funding these necessary things, thus getting into Surplus so you can give that money which should be being used for public infrastructure, back to your mates and supporters as tax cuts.

  23. Sam Maiden

    The origins of the turkeys voting for Christmas jibe are traced to a British MP, but have been subsequently stolen by everyone from UK Prime Minister James Callaghan to former Labor leader Mark Latham.

    It’s too good a line not to recycle as the Liberals ponder what they did that crazy day in August when they killed the sitting prime minister.

    Or, to borrow the German phrase, “Only the most stupid calves would vote for their butchers”.

  24. Economist and avid budget watcher Chris Richardson is not keen on the Treasurer blowing a near-$10 billion budget improvement in this financial year on further personal tax cuts.

    But he suspects the pressure to try to buy back votes will rule the day before next year’s federal election, even though he predicts the good news on the budget won’t last.

    “Promises made on the back of temporary good news – that is the oldest mistake in the budgetary book in Australia,” Mr Richardson, a partner at Deloitte Access Economics, told The New Daily.

    In his his twice-yearly Budget Monitor released on Monday, Mr Richardson again pushed the case for a $75 a week “catch-up” payment in unemployment benefit Newstart.

    It is an issue the Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS) has been pursuing for some time and would provide an extra $10.71 a day for more than 770,000 people – the least well off in Australian society.

    Mr Richardson said the budget is about far more than deficits or surpluses.

    “This nation has one epic fairness fail – the continuing crush we’re putting on the living standards of the unemployed,” he said.

    “History won’t judge our record kindly.”

  25. ‘It will be fascinating to watch the bunfight as they try to reverse their climate and emissions (coal) policies, but they brag about the projected surplus budget and don’t seem to understand that it is their welfare’

    They will do what they always do, lie.

    They will use smoke and mirrors to hide their true agenda, think of Direct Action.

  26. PeeBee

    They will use smoke and mirrors to hide their true agenda, think of Direct Action.

    Perhaps Greg Hunt will achieve his ambition at last and become leader (of the Oppn !!)

  27. Coorey in the AFR

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his deputy Josh Frydenberg will hold crisis talks with Victorian federal MPs on Monday, after the rout of the Liberal Party in Saturday’s state election raised fears that up to six federal Coalition seats in and around Melbourne could be lost….

    Mr Morrison and Mr Frydenberg, the most senior Victorian Liberal, will use Monday’s meeting, which coincides with the resumption of Federal Parliament for the final fortnight this year, to call for calm and to stress the need for a unified message based on the strong economy and other policy achievements….

    “They assured us Wentworth was unique,” said one Liberal moderate. “It seems like the state of Victoria is also unique.”…

    “It is no longer the Menzies era, no longer the Howard era. Generating prosperity is an expectation, and on its own it is not enough to earn the right to govern,” she [that must surely limit the identity of the source] said….

    Liberal Party members reeled from the shock. “It’s an unmitigated disaster and no one should sugar-coat it. That’s how many many people feel. There is a huge measure of goodwill towards Matthew Guy but the campaign was a disaster,” said John Roskam, executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs and longtime Liberal Party member. “The identity crisis that is engulfing the federal Liberal Party had now reached the Victorian Liberal Party. Are they going to keep arguing about what they believe in?”…

    Federal Victorian Labor MP Richard Marles said…”It is really clear that the Liberals have lost the ability to speak Victorian. I mean the federal Liberals are toxic in Victoria,” he said….in their quest to appeal to conservative voters, the party had alienated Victorians, “opened a huge flank in Victoria and put at risk such seats as Corangamite, Chisholm, La Trobe, Deakin, Dunkley, Aston, and Casey”….

  28. Morrison can’t cope with defeat?

    Shorten Suite

    Morrison refuses to release a statement on the Victorian election.

    Stay classy.

  29. So Deliotte tell us:-

    GDP up 5% (from an under trend base so still under long term trend)

    Tax take up 10%

    Due to surging Company profits

    These surging profits also seeing Companies run out of tax losses to offset their liability (think Qantas and think Murdoch who has now – once again – written down asset values)

    Further our Superannuation Fund Managers are running out of tax losses seeing them remitting a further $1- Billion to the ATO (despite YTD performances for Members being negative thanks to the 11% fall in the ASX since 31 August)

    And this 10% surge in revenue sees a surplus in prospect over a coming period

    Also because of spending cuts

    Meanwhile in the real world of voters those with savings see a Cash Rate of 1.5% persisting (but borrowers remain happy because lending interest rates remain low except interest rate increases Globally see home mortgage interest rates increasing)

    They see an ASX down 11% since 31st August and returns on their Superannuation YTD negative and strongly negative

    They see continuing flat to recessionary wages growth

    They see house prices in decline

    They see Retail under pressure with Company collapses, the latest Roger David

    And they suffer from uncertain employment Terms and Conditions with the likes of NAB, ANZ and Telstra sacking to reduce business overheads and sustain and improve profits (so they pay more tax – but they prosecute a lower tax regime)

    Meanwhile energy and health care costs increase, feeding profit to these suppliers (and increasing their tax remittances)

    Just a brief analysis, but please explain?

    The government is buoyed because the Budget may move to surplus

    But what about the rest of us?

    Noting the comments of the RBA Governor as to the pressure points on the Nation and, whilst Company profits soar, the Cash Rate remains at 1.5% and going nowhere fast

    The big disconnect

    And the reason pollin is where it is federally

    But in Victoria a government spending on required infrastructure and creating employment is wildly popular

    Spot the difference

  30. briefly

    Frydenberg used the expression “Liberal family” a couple of times last night. I felt like retching. If they’re anything they’re the famille macabre.

    It sounded almost incestuous.

    A cartoonist drew the Libs as a family several years back under Abbott. This family. (Can’t find the original,might have been animated)

  31. Thanks Laocoon

    One thing that has been missing from the discussion is the hip pocket nerve.
    This used to be the staple for explaining what the electorate was up to.
    How is the old hip pocket travelling?
    1. Stagnant nominal wages. The reality is darker with time theft, wages theft, conditions theft and Super theft all being rampant. Add precarious employment to the mix and the hip pocket nerves are jangling. Add the bastardry of Robocop and the nerves are screaming.
    2. Falling share prices.
    3. Falling house prices.

  32. Sky News Australia

    .@rowandean on the Victorian election: This result is on the @TurnbullMalcolm Liberals. The Liberals have sold their souls to chase the illusion of being ‘progressive.’

    I don’t think that RD has any idea what being progressive might mean. Delusional.

  33. Boerwar

    Yes particularly with “Stagnant nominal wages”, when I suspect there has been momentum of expectations that nominal wages would rise at 3-5%pa, with those expectations being used to borrow to buy houses at low nominal interest rates

  34. There were some interesting discussions around the Greens yesterday once we got past the Greens Hurt Feelings Syndrome.
    One insightful poster mentioned that the Greens are losing their ability to wedge Labor.
    It does rather seem that, shorn of their pet political agendas by reality, the Greens start drifting a bit.
    Marriage equality is one agenda that was a key Greens’ driver. It has gone.
    The Religious Freedoms Report was being eagerly awaited by both the Greens and the Reactionaries but it seems to have died a death, temporarily at least.
    Global warming is another that is being put to bed by state and federal Labor.
    Safe schools was put to bed by state Labor. No Greens votes there.
    There is an awful lot of wedge-fodder gone down the Greens’ political drain.
    The one that is left is the children on Nauru.
    The Cross Bench might just gut this Greens wedge over the coming few sittings.
    Finally, the Greens have traditionally been very loud and noisy about being the Party for women.
    Di Natale repeated this on election night, boasting about the number of Greens female MPs.
    However, the Party seems to have been spectacularly inept in terms of dealing with the lived experience of female Greens’s staff, volunteers and MPs.
    Criticizing Labor for pointing this out is a bit rich!
    Then there is the behaviour of the Greens when the consequences of their policy document are laid before them.
    It turns out that the majority of Greens have never read the Greens’ policy documents.
    When confronted with the direct consequences of their policies, which include job losses for tens of thousands of Australians, the Greens grow querulous.

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