Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. I wonder if there was a bit of a bounce last week to the govt in the aftermath of the Melbourne attack? It’s the only thing aside from a couple of outlier samples which might explain them gaining a couple of points, and now a return to mean once that’s filtered through the news cycle.

    Have been saying for over a year the only thing which could save the govt is, heaven forbid, a large scale attack here which frightens the horses. Even something like a Tampa wouldn’t work now, given they’ve spent 5 years sayign they’ve stopped boats, if one showed up it would just be seen as a policy failure on their part.

    Shorten on RN breakfast this morning I thought was excellent. Measured, got his points across and sounded Prime Ministerial.

  2. Ray Hadley is offering solutions to the government on how to win the next election, which could be best described as useful as a marzipan oven mitt.

    All you need is a coal-fired power station, apparently.

    LOL see that earlier NY Times excerpt re rightwingers invoking the ‘industrial virility of coalminers’.

  3. It seems to me that without a quota system the Libs will keep going backward in female representation. How many women are in safe (really safe) seats for the next federal election, given the disintegration of what were considered safe in the Vic state election?

  4. The optics are changing from today so much. One reason I say this is I suspect Labor has a better parliamentary tactics team than the LNP.

    eg. No run rabbits run from Labor is my prediction.

  5. lizzie @ #145 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 9:33 am

    KayJay

    That doesn’t seem to make sense. Do they decide whether to charge you after or before the diagnosis?
    🙁

    I will consult with my GP, in whom I have great confidence. I was given a two year holiday by the most excellent surgeon at the John Hunter Hospital. I suspect that a surfeit of backed up cases my be the cause of delay. I am not really bothered about it, although (obviously) should a cancerous growth again be revealed, I may become extremely bothered.
    In the meanwhile, some remedial mowing.
    Just a thought – regarding the Antony Green TV show a couple of nights ago – I thought that that old favourite (of somebody) might be appropriate for the leader of the party being swamped in a landslide.

    “Jubilation T. Cornpone”

    When we fought the Yankees and annihilation was near,
    Who was there to lead the charge, that took us safe to the rear?
    Why it was Jubilation T. Cornpone.
    Old “Toot your own horn pone”,
    Jubilation T. Cornpone, a man who knew no fear.
    When we almost had ’em but the issue still was in doubt,
    Who suggested the retreat that turned it into a rout?

  6. How many women are in safe (really safe) seats for the next federal election, given the disintegration of what were considered safe in the Vic state election?

    JBishop and Melissa Price are two who immediately come to mind. Karen Andrews would be another.

  7. On Twitter
    @DanielAndrewsMP speaking on ABC Radio about safe schools

    Same sex attracted Victorian teens commit suicide at 6x the rate, I’m not copping that “If that costs me votes, then so be it”

    I like Dan Andrews SO much, a true leader. Congrats Victoria.
    #auspol #vicpol #VicVotes

  8. From Scott Ryan this morning.

    The idea that these seats, Goldstein, Higgins, Menzies and Kooyong, are potentially in play for Labor is astounding.

    Scott Ryan unloads

    Paul Karp

    Scott Ryan has given his two cents on the Victorian state election and he says one of the lessons is the Liberal party must pay attention to “our electoral base – our real base”.

    The senator from Victoria told Radio National the result saw “swings in previously safe Liberal seats, seats that are cradle of the Liberal party” such as Kew, Sandringham, Brighton, Box Hill and Hawthorn that sit in the federal seats of Goldstein, Higgins, Menzies and Kooyong.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/nov/26/scott-morrison-victoria-labor-coalition-politics-live?page=with:block-5bfb044fe4b0c6aba99964ec#block-5bfb044fe4b0c6aba99964ec

  9. booleanbach

    The Liberals are going backwards in female representation. As believers in market-driven solutions, they should eventually realize that this is decreasing their productivity and should be changed.

    But they probably won’t, as they are so blinkered by their supposed ‘meritocracy’ which produces such brilliant candidates as Craig Kelly and Jim Molan.

    Just another reason contributing to Labor’s ascendancy.

  10. The same sex marriage vote has been a totemic turning point in this country, like the 1967 Aboriginal referendum.
    Being a national vote – we rarely as a whole nation vote on exactly the same thing – it has changed how we perceive ourselves- every state, urban and rural, have moved into the 21st Century. We have changed.
    If the conservatives didn’t get the message then, they will never get it.

  11. ratsak @ #133 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 9:22 am

    Put me down for Menzies being right in Labor’s gun come the Federal election. Not every Andrews got good news on Saturday night. Kevin should have seen his political death, but being the fringe nutter he is he will learn exactly the wrong lesson.

    While the parliament itself would be better off without people like Andrews in it, to the ALP he’s worth at least two Labor MPs. On that basis they should run dead in Menzies and every other RWNJ seat. The only argument against this is Revenge, which while attractive isn’t playing the long game very well.

  12. Burger “I wonder if there was a bit of a bounce last week to the govt in the aftermath of the Melbourne attack? It’s the only thing aside from a couple of outlier samples which might explain them gaining a couple of points, and now a return to mean once that’s filtered through the news cycle.”

    I think that the polls might be bouncing about a mean ALP 2PP of around 53-54.

  13. Amy:

    Oh – and Bronwyn Bishop will have her Speaker portrait unveiled later today.

    I can hear the socialists screeching already.

    Just who ARE these ‘socialists’? I need to know whether I am one.

  14. After the Victorian State Election on Sat I was trying to decide between watching Hollomen or Yes, (Prime) Minister on iView yesterday.
    Hollomen it was, no doubt the latest Newspoll at 55 – 45 will further add to the need for announcibles over in the FIFO that is Canberra ACT, aka Versailles on Lake Blwxyz Griffin, home to Washminster-repressive democracy.
    I wish PM 3/ 3 since 2013, Happy Clapping Grinno (http://newpolitics.com.au/2018/11/24/the-unknown-scott-morrison/), would stop treating Hollomen as some kinda induction video.
    Presumably there may even be some end of year holiday reshuffling of the deck chairs.
    Will it be more to the left, centre or right?
    Not that it is about that, but about doing right.

  15. Carole Cadwalladr
    Carole Cadwalladr
    @carolecadwalla
    ·
    23h
    AMERICA: Everything about this story is extraordinary. This almost never happens. UK Parliament sent sergeant-at-arms to US citizen’s hotel to seize internal Facebook docs alleged to contain explosive revelations relating to Cambridge Analytica data abuse

    Parliament seizes cache of Facebook internal papers
    theguardian.com

  16. Don’t necessarily disagree autocrat. A post election Liberal Party that lost a swag of semi literate near intelligent lifeforms, but retained Dutton, Abbott, Andrews, Abetz and the rest of the monkey pod would have a lot of electoral advantages for Labor.

    But frankly fuck em. Those idiots need a damn good thrashing.

    And on the long game question, discrediting those arseholes and the media that supports them as electorally poisonous fringe nutters will move the Overton window a quantum leap left. That’s the sort of long game we need more than anything.

  17. guytaur

    Unfortunately
    .
    .
    “2m ago 10:16

    Barnaby Joyce is about to speak on the national carp control program.

    Sadly, we don’t get to hear what he says, because the Sky feed freezes.

    I think it was something along the lines of CRAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRPPPPPPP”

  18. “Just who ARE these ‘socialists’? I need to know whether I am one.”

    I think to people like Bronwyn, “Socialist” is a swear word to be applied to anyone whose political and social views they don’t approve of. So pretty much anyone to the left of, say, Tony Abbott.

  19. @simonahac tweets

    when the former director of climate change policy at @TheIPA warns that the public is way ahead of @LiberalAus on renewables, is it a turning point in the culture wars? https://twitter.com/JonDeeOz/status/1066825595680546817

    @JonDeeOz tweets

    Good to see @TimWilsonMP supporting #FairDinkumPower on @SkyNewsAust:

    “If anyone thinks there is this great public sentiment out there that people hate renewables and they’re hugging coal – I say get real.”

    @mcannonbrookes @simonahac @wendy_harmer @Peter_Fitz @p_hannam https://twitter.com/JonDeeOz/status/1066825595680546817/video/1

  20. Another in the occasional series. This one was a bit hard to disaggregate so I have just gone for the headline:

    68. Victorian Election Cockup.

  21. Did something happen in Victoria over the weekend?

    Someone needs to tell the PM!

    Update: Scott Morrison has still not commented on the Victorian election result.

    Amy on the Guardian blog

  22. Jim Molan has spat the dummy and won’t be on Qanda tonight.

    The Government have moved with unusual alacrity and have provided a replacement who more closely reflects their views on matters far and wide – Senator Eric Abetz

  23. ScoFauxMo not commenting on the Victorian election is reminiscent of his predecessor.

    After the SuperSaturday wipeout, including the Longman humiliation, Turnbull was silent for 5 days – before emerging with the imprint of Dutton still evident on his backside.

  24. sprocket_ @ #192 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 6:29 am

    Jim Molan has spat the dummy and won’t be on Qanda tonight.

    The Government have moved with unusual alacrity and have provided a replacement who more closely reflects their views on matters far and wide – Senator Eric Abetz

    Good to see!

    A clear indication that the Government is responding to the message of the weekend. 🙂

  25. Confessions @ #197 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 6:35 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #190 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 7:27 am

    Did something happen in Victoria over the weekend?

    Someone needs to tell the PM!

    Update: Scott Morrison has still not commented on the Victorian election result.

    Amy on the Guardian blog

    He tweeted a congratulations on Sunday….to the Aussie women’s cricket team!

    I’m pretty sure they’re in the West Indies at the moment.

  26. I wasn’t the only one who noticed.

    @cheryl_kernot tweets

    Another example of churlish, sulky Morrison. And a silly move for future xbench relationships #auspol https://twitter.com/stephanieando/status/1066835812673703937

    @stephanieando tweets

    Meanwhile, Turnbull’s replacement as Member for Wentworth has been sworn in (which his replacement as PM was not in the chamber to witness) #auspol https://twitter.com/stephanieando/status/1066822853012516864

  27. The Victorian state election has further demonstrated that independents/others are on the march in the bush.
    Reference the recent NSW state by-elections in Orange and here in sunny Wagga Wagga.
    There’s something blowing in the wind out in the sticks.
    You can smell it in the air and hear it on the ground.
    Change is a beautiful thing.

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