Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. booleanbach says:
    Monday, November 26, 2018 at 3:48 pm

    way to go Libs!!!
    When others in Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong spoke of climate change and energy policy, they were told that their membership was revoked, as “ this club is a safe place for Josh and unless you fully support him 100% you are required to resign”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/26/the-liberal-party-must-reform-itself-rapidly-or-accept-its-demise
    *********************************************************
    Yes, because that’s how you run a ‘broad church’……

  2. Labor is winning things left, right, and center, and all anyone talks about is Newspoll PPM. We’re doing the RWNJ’s job for them.

    The only thing the conversation should be about is how badly the Coalition is losing at literally everything.

  3. What i know of Shorten is based on what i have seen of him in the media. But, no-one gets to his position without having abit of blood on their hands and will have made both friends and enemies along the way. That’s the way of the world.

    Seems a nice bloke and considerably more genuine than some he sits across the chamber from at work.

    Essentially i think he really has to be judged on performance as LOTO.

    He took on the job at a bad time for the ALP and took them quite close to an election win last time. Then, he has got on with it and taken the ALP to a viable election winning position for 2019. Did NOT do the small target thing and is going into an election with real policy on the table, that not everyone likes, but has established a position on a lot of important matters. And he has kept the ALP unified. Oh there will be grumbles but the ALP seem VERY focused under Shorten on beating the Lib/Nats, and having a reasonable and do-able policy agenda to implement once that job is done.

    Shorten has done well on any objective measure. Popularity?? Stuff it, people seem to be saying that they will vote for him anyway, and have been saying that for a long time.

    FFS, look at Bludgertrack?? Libs behind since Oct 2017?? People made up their minds a while ago and will take a LOT to shift enough of them to even hint that the Libs have a sniff at the election. Not complacent but looking forward to the lamentation of the RWFW’s in this country as their influence (only due to the tight numbers in the last few parliaments anyway) evaporates.

  4. This bloody arrogant “nath” character has managed to twist peoples words and get a negative discussion going on the LOTO, despite a landslide win for the ALP in Victoria and a record Newspoll results for the LOTO. He is probably a sub editor for the Murdoch press trialling Labor bad talking points ahead of the election. Do not fall into it.

  5. Craig Kelly wouldn’t rule out going to cross benches if he is not pre-selected for seat of Hughes
    That would be a wonderful news

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/26/craig-kelly-wont-rule-out-crossbench-switch-if-he-loses-liberal-preselection?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2F2018%2Fnov%2F26%2Fcraig-kelly-wont-rule-out-crossbench-switch-if-he-loses-liberal-preselection

  7. Of all the issues that will affect the outcome of the next election Shorten’s popularity will rank slightly above the colour of RDN’s slight.

    But only just.

    So long as he does the job with anything like the competence he has handled his current job then questions about his popularity simply won’t come up.

  9. Re-elected Premier Daniel Andrews says he will offer Fiona Patten a job after her likely toppling in Saturday’s election, describing her looming defeat as a ‘loss to the Parliament’.

    The Reason Party leader, who entered the upper house at the 2014 election as a member of the then-called Sex Party, looks set to be ousted by either Derryn Hinch Justice Party’s Carmela Dagiandis or a Labor candidate in the Northern Metropolitan Region.

    When asked on ABC radio on Monday morning whether he would consider giving Ms Patten a job, Mr Andrews said there were many roles with the government that would suit her.

    “I look forward to speaking with her personally in the next few days,” he said.

    “If she’s interested, I’m sure we could find some different roles for her to play to make the place fairer and stronger.”

    Ms Patten was integral in some of the Andrews government’s signature progressive policy decisions over the past four years, including changes to assisted dying laws, Melbourne’s first safe injecting room and safe access zones around abortion clinics.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/i-ve-got-a-mortgage-fiona-patten-to-consider-job-offer-from-andrews-20181126-p50ibv.html

  11. Shorten only needs to win the popularity of his electoral division.

    The public, from the opinion polls, already likes what they see in Federal Labor.

    Shorten has held the Federal parliamentary group together and disciplined.

    They as a team have worked on a suite of policies which in the main resonate with the electorate.

    This is why they are ahead and will win.

  12. Ignore the character assassins. They are upset and have every right to be. God knows in the past years I have been upset.But, in truth what they say means nothing and in this bubble influences nobody. It is just their opinion.
    QT today was a positive for Shorten and Labor one just had to look at the Liberal front and Backbencher faces to see that.
    Well done Bill and Labor, another successful day on the long march to the Treasury Benches.

  13. Is this the right moment to post this? There must be a few broken hearts around today. 😉

    A stressful event, such as the death of a loved one, really can break your heart. In medicine, the condition is known as broken heart syndrome or takotsubo syndrome.

    It is characterised by a temporary disruption of the heart’s normal pumping function, which puts the sufferer at increased risk of death. It’s believed to be the reason many elderly couples die within a short time of each other.

    https://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/broken-heart-syndrome-may-affect-us-for-longer-than-first-thought-20181108-p50eox.html

  14. Many Labor supporters have moved on from expecting a Messiah-like Bob Hawke, or even a Kevin Rudd, to sweep in from Opposition to lead Labor to some continuing Golden Future…………and who can forget the 60-40 Kevin had at one stage. Fat lot of good this type of leader has proven to be of late.
    am happy to accept a less-than-ideal human being that Shorten seems to be rather than some flashy, here-today-gone-tomorrow Saviour for Labor. The man has seen off two sitting PM’s and has consolidated Labor into a real prospect for government.
    The 55-45 poll, the debacle for the LNP in Victoria and Wentworth says a lot more.
    I suspect it is becoming obvious that a change of government at the Federal level is overdue and, by the look of things, enough voters, currently, think the same thing.

  15. This Friday is the 55th anniversary of the last federal election won by Robert Menzies.

    Therefore, the youngest person who voted for Menzies would today be 76.

    Might be time for the Liberal party to move on to a more modern narrative than this continual referencing back to Menzies.

  16. Tricot @ #614 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 6:50 pm

    Many Labor supporters have moved on from expecting a Messiah-like Bob Hawke, or even a Kevin Rudd, to sweep in from Opposition to lead Labor to some continuing Golden Future…………and who can forget the 60-40 Kevin had at one stage. Fat lot of good this type of leader has proven to be of late.

    I am positively embarrassed whenever I recall how joyfully I “embraced” Rudd at the time. My partner won’t ever let me live it down.

    I have since come to my senses and would much rather see someone competent in the top job than someone charismatic.

    Whenever I forget that lesson, I just recall Mal the Magnificent – and how the media fawned over him (and there are some who still do!).

    Once you see the trick, you can never be fooled again. Some here have yet to cotton on to it.

  17. Mr Morrison has already given up leading the COALition to an actual election victory. His hysteria in QT today, and the depressed demeanour of those sitting behind him, says it all. He didn’t even bother commenting on an election drubbing for his own party on the weekend. This from the guy who bragged about not being afraid to “call out” radicals in a rival religion.

  18. lizzie says:
    Monday, November 26, 2018 at 6:42 pm

    Lizzie, Cherry picking again i see. You cut short your post, the next 2 sentences were as follows.

    ABC host John Faine said it was ironic that Ms Patten would likely lose her seat when Mr Andrews was “boasting” about the progressive policies she championed.
    Mr Andrews denied his party had been “dragged kicking and screaming” to polices such as the safe injecting room trial and euthanasia reforms, but went on to heap praise on Ms Patten.

    Never forget her vote on the breakup of the CFA was crucial to Andrews. Purcell was the one he couldn’t ‘persuade’ although he did give 250 mill to the high polluting Alcoa smelter in trying to do so.

  19. “I am positively embarrassed whenever I recall how joyfully I “embraced” Rudd at the time.”

    Rudd was the person for the job at the time. Unseat Howard.

    Later, he lost it. Would have prefered th ALP to have kept him in place an managed it. Suspect Julia Gillard would have prefered that as well??

    Anyway, you reckon that’s embarrassing? I remember campaigning for Lathan PM. 🙁

  21. It’s been very interesting today to listen to the feed back to Melbourne Radio, Jon Faine and Raf Epstein, in particular, on the implications of the Vic election. Based on what I heard, particularly from very cranky Lib supporters and members, there’s a big fight, possibly a split coming in the Vic Libs.
    I’ve no idea how that would affect the NSW Libs but it will certainly create mayhem in Vic. What faction will win? Who would know? It will be a very bitter fight that’s for sure. Deep division and enmity on display.
    BTW, I don’t know why anyone here takes PPM in any way seriously. It’s meaningless for indicating anything.

  23. Pegasus @ #591 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 6:18 pm

    Cat

    I’ts so sweet of you to always inquire after me even if it’s always to have a snide dig. You’re not the only one here who seem to always have me on their minds.

    I didn’t know unicorns were so thin-skinned that they can’t cope with a bit of gentle ribbing! Are you still smarting over the electoral drubbing you received over the weekend? 🙂

  24. My opinion for what it is worth. I believe that if elected Shorten is going to make a real good PM, and once elected to the position will be seen to be very fair and reasonable. And will be treated by the media as such. To put it bluntly all the shit has already been thrown at him.

    Re his popularity. As a person of NSW roots and a long time resident of QLD i still remember all the crap that was thrown at that nerd bloke that got to lead the Victorian Labor Party. I remember the Vic Libs putting crap on him and laughing at Dan Who. Is it going to be Dan or Daniel.

    How did all that all work out over time?

  28. [This Friday is the 55th anniversary of the last federal election won by Robert Menzies.]

    It was exactly one week after the assassination of JFK.
    Such different times.

  29. When the NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian, said they wouldn’t rely on people from ‘outside’ to help campaign in the forthcoming state election, does that mean they won’t wheel out John Howard?

  30. Michael, you need the PB comments plug in, C+. Then the Block function just pops up beside each commenters nom. You press it, it asks you if you are sure you want to Block them? You say yes, or no, but if you say yes their posts just disappear and you never have to be bothered by them again!

  31. nath
    Just out of interest, are you a member of any political party?
    I ask because your comments convey a sort of naivety common to those who’ve got no actual experience of what it’s like to actually operate inside a party.
    It’s why I’ve previously found your comments entertaining, I might add. Now, just pretty silly.

  32. As you are lurking in the shadows, Pegasus, just waiting to pop out with one of your trademark snide swipes, what say you about this?

    “That the Senate –

    (a) notes that:

    (i) New South Wales (NSW) Greens MP, Ms Jenny Leong, used parliamentary privilege to call on fellow NSW Greens MP, Mr Jeremy Buckingham, to step down as a candidate at the NSW election due to an alleged ‘act of sexual violence’ and aggressive, intimidating behaviour,

    (ii) Mr Buckingham has been the subject of allegations that he inappropriately touched former staffer Ms Ella Buckland in 2011,

    (iii) former Greens staffer and journalist, Ms Lauren Ingram, alleges she was violently raped by a Greens party volunteer in 2015, which she says she reported to the Greens and heard nothing for months, so she tweeted pictures of her bruising from the incident, drawing a response from the Party in June 2017,

    (iv) former co-convenor of the NSW Young Greens in 2017, Ms Holly Brooke, says a male party member indecently assaulted her, trying to force his hand down her pants and alleges the Greens’ response was to suggest she teach a consent workshop to the perpetrator, a response she said was ‘more traumatic than the instance itself’,

    (v) it has also been alleged that former Victorian Greens party leader, Mr Greg Barber, had a ‘men’s-only room’ in his office, and settled out of court with a former female staffer about sex discrimination and bullying,

    (vi) Victorian Greens candidate, Mr Angus McAlpine, has refused to resign despite rapping about date-rape and domestic violence, and has been defended by Victorian Greens leader, Ms Samantha Ratnam,

    (vii) another Victorian Greens candidate, Mr Dominic Phillips, has liked one Facebook page called ‘Period Pains, Try waiting for your porn to download’ and another with a title so inappropriate it has been deemed unparliamentary,

    (viii) a former Greens volunteer alleges she was sexually assaulted by another volunteer in the back of a car in Canberra on the night of the last Federal election,

    (ix) Young Greens members wrote an open letter to their party in August demanding it reshape its culture around sexism within the party, with dozens resigning in disgust over handling of sexual misconduct allegations,

    (x) lawyer, Mr Rory Markham, says he is advising a number of women who say the Greens party mishandled their complaints of sexual assault and harassment arising in Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory,

    (xi) the Greens have 10 federal members of parliament, federal party status, 27 state members of parliament, the attendant staffing resources, and have received at least $28.5 million in federal election-based public funding since 2001, and millions more in state and territory election-based public funding, and

    (xii) Greens Senators Di Natale, Siewert and Hanson-Young have all used the phrase “the standard you walk past is the standard you accept”;

    (b) calls upon Senators Di Natale, Siewert, Steele-John, Hanson-Young, Rice, Waters, Faruqi, Whish-Wilson and McKim to make statements to the Senate condemning predatory and criminal behaviour within the Greens party, and apologise to the victims; and

    (c) calls upon the Federal Government to write to all Greens Party branches providing details of support services, and advice as to the means to report inappropriate and potentially criminal behaviour.”

    🙂

  34. Personally I have no problems with Nath’s posts. On occasion he shit stirs but he’s a witty shit stirrer… so fair play to him.

  36. Harry I am a former member and candidate of the Sex Party here in Victoria. I left the party when the decision was made to change the party’s name to the Reason Party. I led a small faction that wanted it to be renamed the Sex, Drugs and Rock’nRoll Party but we were defeated.

  38. Why is it that whenever someone starts listing those they want to block/want William to ban, the only obnoxious PB denizens that they seem to be bothered by are the ones that barrack for the wrong team?

    Don’t bother answering, it’s a rhetorical question.

  39. For the sake of this blog, I will continue as I usually do, to ignore Cat’s childish emotive baiting.

    Michael wants to block me – Woo, Hoo!

  41. I also agree on Shorten. Not at all inspiring and it’s kind of sad that in Australia in the 21st century that there’s so little visionary leadership. I also have friends who are long standing members of the ALP who are not at all well disposed to Bill Shorten. For all that I think he has the potential to make a good Labor PM, in the same way as I felt Beazley could have been. A little more than 4 years ago nobody had heard of Dan Andrews. Although he is also not especially inspiring at a personal level, he has been a very effective Labor Premier and leader of progressive politics. I think there’s the potential for Shorten to go the same way. PMs often really grow in the job.

  43. Pegasus @ #635 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 7:18 pm

    For the sake of this blog, I will continue as I usually do, to ignore Cat’s childish emotive baiting.

    Michael wants to block me – Woo, Hoo!

    Or, in other words, you’re just too gutless to address the serious issues wrt The Greens. I’d be embarrassed if I tried the above effort as a way out of answering a serious question. But, no hide, no Xmas box, eh?

  46. This is an interesting development – new NSW Labor leader Michael Daley tells the SCG Trust they can rebuild Allianz stadium at Moore Park if they want to – but they will need to get the money from somewhere else if Labor wins because Labor is not going to give them a cent of public money. And seeing as the SCG Trust repeatedly have said what an incredibly profitable enterprise this will be, they should have no trouble getting investors to put up the $800 million surely?

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/you-won-t-get-a-single-cent-labor-stands-firm-on-stadium-cash-20181126-p50ien.html

  47. I reckon a good proportion of the swing against the Reason Party in the LC on Saturday came about as a result of that name change. I mean, I get why they did it – they want to expand their base and not be pidgeonholed as a single-issue party – but they replaced a name that was enormously successful at courting attention (not to mention catching the eye on a lengthy upper house ballot paper), with a generic, truly pretentious name that gives no indication whatsoever what they stand for to the unengaged protest voter.

  48. nath
    Well, you’ve tasted how things go in political parties. You get rolled from time to time. Now what do you think of Andrew’s offer to help Fiona P?

  49. Would it not be possible to put the banning of “nath” to some sort of vote? I find him very objectionable. He is an admitted drug user, a drunkard who continually defames the LOTO and is very abrasive and rude. I think a vote would be very democratic. Just my opinion.

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