Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 14 of 52
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  1. Asha Leu,
    I get what you are saying about Sex/Reason, however, I can also understand why they wanted to move on from being the nudge, nudge, wink, wink party to something a bit more adult-seeming. I do agree though that the Reason Party, as a new name for the party, is pretty naff.

  2. Rocket Rocket @ #646 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 7:24 pm

    And seeing as the SCG Trust repeatedly have said what an incredibly profitable enterprise this will be, they should have no trouble getting investors to put up the $800 million surely?

    As with many things, it’s very profitable if you can use public money … otherwise, not so much 🙁

  3. I remember being in Victoria shortly after the 2010 state election. There was some talk about that useless, boring guy who was now leading the Labor party. “No-one even knows who he is!” How things change.

  4. Messiahs haven’t done that well in Australian politics. Turnbull, Abbott, Rudd, Latham, Hewson. The last successful Messiah was Hawke, but even with him, the gloss wore off. The last successful Prime Minister (in the political sense) was Howard, a hard right warrior who tempered his political inclinations with pragmatism.

    Shorten’s not the Messiah.

    Even less so is Morrison.

  5. Rocket Rocket @ #646 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 4:24 pm

    This is an interesting development – new NSW Labor leader Michael Daley tells the SCG Trust they can rebuild Allianz stadium at Moore Park if they want to – but they will need to get the money from somewhere else if Labor wins because Labor is not going to give them a cent of public money. And seeing as the SCG Trust repeatedly have said what an incredibly profitable enterprise this will be, they should have no trouble getting investors to put up the $800 million surely?

    Michael Daley already proving to be a better leader than Luke “Touch Up” Foley.

  8. When, as a commenter, you have to resort to defamatory imputations about the Leader of the Opposition, it doesn’t matter whether they are witty or not, they’re just plain wrong.

  10. Regarding Shorten, in the great words of the Stones, you can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes you might just find you get what you need.

  11. Great call by NSW Opposition Leader Michael Dayley. With the Liberal Government determined to demolish the Allianz Stadium before the election, Labor should make it clear that anyone who wants a new stadium can pay for it.

    And if the Government signs any side letters, don’t meekly pay. Dare the beneficiaries to sue.

  15. Michael @ #649 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 4:25 pm

    Would it not be possible to put the banning of “nath” to some sort of vote?

    No.

    This site is not a democracy. It is a benevolent dictatorship run by one William de Bowe.

    He, and he alone decides who stays and who goes.

    If you don’t like what another poster posts, either scroll on by or take advantage of the excellent Firefox/Chrome plug-in provided by AR for this site and block that poster(s).

  16. On the Greens:

    I haven’t commented much on their present, er, situation, partly because I try to avoid the interminable Labor/Greens wars on here, and partly because the whole thing is pretty depressing for this moderately rusted-on Greens voter.

    But given the absolute trainwreck of a campaign they had, I actually think they did okay on Saturday. Disappointing certainly, but I wouldn’t call a -1.6 swing and retaining one (possibly two) house seats a disaster either, considering the circumstances.

    I would definitely agree that the party has major work to do in sorting out what seems to be some serious rot in their internal structures, and needs to be far more on the ball with candidate selections.

  17. BK, I got it! Wow, that guy answering the questions is weird! Why does he always say, “Privilege” before he provides an answer!?!

  18. No, we will not be putting banning to a vote. This is not a democracy and the minority does not get done over by the majority, whatever that minority is or isn’t.
    Only one person gets to do the banning around here and it ain’t any of us.

    For one, I am happy to exist in PBland at the whim of our Overlord, Bilbo The First and Magnificent.

  20. Just had a quick squiz at the Bolt Report. Bolt and Dean were getting stuck into JBishop. There must be a reason.
    Dean was criticizing JBishop for not predicting the Brexit vote. Uh huh. How many people around he world got that right?
    And she did not suck up to Trump while he was rising to POTUS. Uh huh. Just about everyone who sucked up to Trump during that period has been either sacked or is in jail.
    And then Dean got stuck into JBishop for not doing a trade deal with Britain. Uh huh. This is simply not possible during the Brexit negotiations. And Ciobo was the minister whose responsibility for trade negotiations, in any case.
    There were smirks and snarks about JBishop’s shoes. Not sure why.
    So, it was just ill-informed, vicious, personal commentary by Dean of the former Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade.
    So, the Liberal’s women problem, the Liberal’s misogyny problem and the Liberal’s ratbag right problem were on full display.

  22. Michael @ #647 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 3:25 pm

    Would it not be possible to put the banning of “nath” to some sort of vote? I find him very objectionable. He is an admitted drug user, a drunkard who continually defames the LOTO and is very abrasive and rude. I think a vote would be very democratic. Just my opinion.

    While we sometimes discuss democracy, PB is not one and there is only one true doG here, William be his name.

  24. Asha Leu @ #666 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 4:39 pm

    I would definitely agree that the party has major work to do in sorting out what seems to be some serious rot in their internal structures, and needs to be far more on the ball with candidate selections.

    The first thing they need to do is dump Richard di Natale. Under his “leadership” they’ve abandoned their home ground of being an environmental protest party, and in doing so have found themselves way out of their depth.

  28. This Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison Coalition Government has thoroughly screwed up the implementation of the NBN, as well as the NDIS.

    Remember, there would not even be a comprehensive disability support framework such as the NDIS without the broad vision of the Rudd/Gillard Labor Governments. And the junior minister most heavily involved in the initial groundwork for this was Bill Shorten.

    As a parent of a child with autism, whose early intervention funding would have ceased at age 7, but who now can access support funding into the future, I will be forever grateful to Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard and Bill Shorten. And I completely distrust the bona fides of the Coalition, who dismissed the NDIS as unnecessary pie in the sky while in Opposition and then mismanaged it into the ground while in Government.

    Others here can nitpick about whether the LOTO showed sufficient uncritical loyalty to past leaders till the cows come home. On their best days, none of the past three Liberal leaders have been able to hold a candle to any of the past three Labor leaders on their worst days.

  29. Asha Leu

    ‘I would definitely agree that the party has major work to do in sorting out what seems to be some serious rot in their internal structures, and needs to be far more on the ball with candidate selections.’

    The Greens have a slew of policies that are very, very strange.

    I will mention just one: closing Olympic Dam because it is a uranium mine. This would have an immediate smashing effect on South Australia’s economy: around 10,000 direct and indirect jobs gone.

    In fact, if you read the Greens policies carefully, many of them would be instantly destructive should the Greens form Government.

    Di Natale is promising to the Greens supporters that the Greens are on the way to forming Government.

    Therefore the Greens have a huge credibility gap.

  30. Dan Gulberry @ #655 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 7:01 pm

    Rocket Rocket @ #646 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 4:24 pm

    This is an interesting development – new NSW Labor leader Michael Daley tells the SCG Trust they can rebuild Allianz stadium at Moore Park if they want to – but they will need to get the money from somewhere else if Labor wins because Labor is not going to give them a cent of public money. And seeing as the SCG Trust repeatedly have said what an incredibly profitable enterprise this will be, they should have no trouble getting investors to put up the $800 million surely?

    Michael Daley already proving to be a better leader than Luke “Touch Up” Foley.

    Yeah, well in SA since the LIbs got into power, the shyte has started to set in.
    The Adelaide Cricket Ground’ s The Stadiam Mangagent Aithroirty wants to build luxury accommodation at the oval. They asked the SA gov’t to pay for it. Perhaps sensing that regular SA voters might tear the gov’t limb from limb if they did pay for it, the Libs decided to lend them the money instead. Even SACA members are speaking against the plan.

    The Stadium Management Authority (SMA) has proposed a $42 million development on the eastern side of the oval, which would be funded by a loan underwritten by the State Government, which supports the plan.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-26/adelaide-oval-hotel-proposal-stirs-anger-and-debate/10554766

  35. According to Christian Porter on 7 30 nothing to see here. We’re going fine we just need sell our message better.
    Train wreck interview.

  36. ‘itsthevibe says:
    Monday, November 26, 2018 at 7:46 pm

    Okay, this “Michael” character is just an exercise in urine extraction, right?

    RIGHT? ‘

    Yes, he specializes in piss-weak piss taking.

  37. Ken Henry: I will say it here now anyway, we have said consistently to APRA the word “ensure” is a bit strong. It’s really difficult for a board to be held accountable for ensuring anything, just as it’s rather difficult to hold APRA to that – to that standard of ensuring an appropriate risk culture.”
    So why the bloody hell have a board at all then?? Or APRA for that matter?
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/nab-s-culture-could-take-10-years-to-fix-chairman-says-20181126-p50igk.html

  40. The committee members questioning Alford are all working together regardless of their party membership. Politics at its best.
    Alford is beyond belief!

  41. Boerwar @ #670 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 7:42 pm

    Just had a quick squiz at the Bolt Report. Bolt and Dean were getting stuck into JBishop. There must be a reason.
    Dean was criticizing JBishop for not predicting the Brexit vote. Uh huh. How many people around he world got that right?
    And she did not suck up to Trump while he was rising to POTUS. Uh huh. Just about everyone who sucked up to Trump during that period has been either sacked or is in jail.
    And then Dean got stuck into JBishop for not doing a trade deal with Britain. Uh huh. This is simply not possible during the Brexit negotiations. And Ciobo was the minister whose responsibility for trade negotiations, in any case.
    There were smirks and snarks about JBishop’s shoes. Not sure why.
    So, it was just ill-informed, vicious, personal commentary by Dean of the former Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade.
    So, the Liberal’s women problem, the Liberal’s misogyny problem and the Liberal’s ratbag right problem were on full display.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/julie-bishop-donates-red-shoes-to-democracy-museum

  42. Dan Gulberry / C@t
    I use an IPad, so I suppose this C+ blocking plug in would not be possible??
    If not, I’ll continue to ignore him, works for me. 😉

  43. Puffy

    Just like a child needs to actual touch a hot stove in order to learn not to touch a hot stove, the electorate needs to experience life under a party beholden to spivs to learn to never vote for them again.

    It’s only a temporary thing, so grin and bear it until the next election.

  46. Ven says:
    Monday, November 26, 2018 at 7:50 pm
    In 7:30 report
    Christian Porter says everything will be honky dory for federal LNP if the messaging better than now. Incredible!
    —————————————

    Excellent! I love it when they open their mouths and prove beyond doubt they think most Australians are either stupid or evil or both.

    Nobody show them a copy of Dale Carnegie. They’re doing fine.

  48. If we are going to have a plebiscite on ‘The Australian Republic’, then can we also have one on Indigenous recognition in the constitution, and another on our ‘National Anthem’; all at the same time please. The marginal cost would be well worth it.

  50. Its a great time to be a Labor fan.
    This blog is a great source of information and is most entertaining. The majority of you have never had the opportunity to meet with and interact with any or most of the PMs you so readily discuss and dissect.
    Not one of those PMs I’ve met since and from Howard have not lost skin and skinned others to get the PMship.
    They are of a type but their performance has varied greatly.
    Not recognising Shorten’s achievements to this time is probably just ignorance or bias on your part.
    I’m as excited for 2019 as in 1972. This amalgamation of oddballs in the LNP that purports to govern in the best interests of Australia is a pathetic sham and will be deported to the opposition benches simply because its not sufficiently capable of governing in the best interests of Australia.
    Your varied, contradictory and contorted opinions are a great delight. Keep up the good work.
    The obnoxious, over opinionated types who show up in various guises, have a shot at the title,are best left to rot on the ground. Thanks William and BK. And some others!

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