Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  3. Victoria @ #547 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 5:12 pm

    C@t

    Ouch. Hope you are okay!

    I’ll survive. Much to the consternation of some I assume. 😉

    Loads of blood though. I think I might go and get tested for Haemophilia too. Both the boys have it, and I know it’s harder for women to have it but I did have a great, great, great grandmother who died of heart failure as a result of a nose bleed. 🙂

  8. C@t

    Best to get checked out.

    A few weeks ago OH was working and within five minutes hit his head on a bolt above him attached to a duct. Then managed to get steel in his eye despite wearing safety goggles.
    Anyhoo he said blood everywhere etc. Cleaned it up as he was just about finished working. Came home and told me what happened. Said he had headache but was concerned about something being in his eye.
    Anyhoo I examined top of his head and just about passed out. Took him to our doctor immediately who managed to glue the gash and remove steel from eye.
    Worst bit about whole episode is that he injured himself working in the actual Royal Melbourne Hospital.
    Do you think he even considered fronting up to the emergency department instead of going to car and driving home!
    @facepalm@

  9. I can’t be bothered going back through all the posts today to check on whether or not a link has been posted to this article previously.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/26/the-liberal-party-must-reform-itself-rapidly-or-accept-its-demise

    Yates has hit the nail on the head IMO. If the Liberal Party continues to allow itself to be driven by the age pensioner brigade that increasingly dominates its branches, it will rapidly lose its relevance to the broader community. This is not a short-term problem, its a looming existential crisis.

    I met Yates a few times years back and he’s quite an impressive dude, although, coming as he does from the money market, he tends to break into a bit of jargon when he gets a bit excited.

    Being myself a bit inclined towards his Fiscally Conservative and Socially Progressive position, I can only say more strength to his arm. I hope his movement gathers strength and eventually triggers some sort of reform process within the Libs. However, I’m not overly optimistic unless and until the Murdoch dynasty can wean itself away from the social conservatives and climate change deniers. And there doesn’t seem to be any sign of that happening.

  11. ‘nath says:
    Monday, November 26, 2018 at 5:12 pm

    lizzie
    says:
    Monday, November 26, 2018 at 5:09 pm
    I thought nath had gone away to create his own swamp. Damn.
    ___________________________
    Yes I did say I was going to create my own blog but I was stoned and drunk on Vodka on a 2 day bender getting back from Crown Casino and was out of sorts.’

    Your best post to date.

  12. William, can something not be done about the vile “nath”? He is a most reprehensible character, as he has just said himself. His continual attacks on Shorten, unlike Asha, are annoying and not really worthy of a respectable blog like this.

  13. @Michael…There are continual attacks and smears about politicians from all sides of the political agenda here……in regards to nath,while I don’t agree with his posts he has a right to post as we all do …….if you don’t like what he posts……just ignore it or get a mouse with a scroll button.

  14. C@t hopefully the dinner wasn’t ruined.

    I managed to cut the tip of my thumb off while preparing a very expensive piece of meat for dinner. We ended up eating pizza on the way back from the hospital.

  16. Vic,
    😯 I hope your husband is okay! He may have gotten concussion as well! You just never know, from one day to the next, when disaster will strike.

  18. Re Shorten: I haven’t read all the earlier posts, but I found William’s contribution a few pages back interesting.

    The fact is Shorten simply doesn’t do it for a lot of people. Let’s face it, 55 per cent of people sampled told Newspoll that they intended to vote for Labor ahead of the Coalition, but only 34 per cent said they preferred Shorten as PM. 46 per cent of those polled – up 4 per cent – prefer Morrison, even though any objective assessment of his performance on TV in recent weeks (and I’m probably about as objective as you are going to get on this web forum) would conclude that he comes across as bumbling, bordering at times on clownish.

    The electorate has had a long time to get to know Shorten, and it’s pretty clear that a strong majority, including many people who are currently intend to vote Labor at the next election, don’t much like what they see.

    When I ask people I know – most of whom are Labor voters, Green voters or swinging voters – what they think of Shorten, the comments I tend to get back are “wooden”, “sounds insincere”, “comes across like he’s reading from a script even when he’s talking off the cuff”, “doesn’t seem to have any passion for the substance of politics, seems to be mainly there for the sake of personal vanity.”

    For what it’s worth, my personal view of Shorten is that, notwithstanding his lack of charisma, he has a proven record as a wheeler dealer and would therefore make a pretty effective PM. It’s a pity that he can’t better project this part of his skillset. I think the Libs were very effective at hampering his progress through that Royal Commission: while he came out of it with his reputation only slightly tarnished, the whole experience made it more difficult for him to sell himself as a political leader on the basis of his achievements as a trade unionist. He seems to have decided to say as little as possible about his past career and focus on the future. It’s a shame, but it would be hard to fix now.

    I won’t go on about it, as I find that nobody on here agrees with me, but I continue to think that Labor’s taxation policies represent a significant amount of lead in Shorten’s saddlebags. I still reckon they should drop them. Notwithstanding everything that is wrong with ScoMo and his team, Shorten as PM is proving to be a hard enough sell without any further distractions.

    I realise that most on here won’t agree with anything I’ve just posted. But it’s how I’m seeing things at the moment. I think we are back in 2013 territory, a contest between a party which has been tearing itself to pieces and a party led by a man that voters don’t trust all that much. And I suspect the result is going to mirror that of 2013, ie: Labor under Shorten will win pretty comfortably against the divided Libs. But it doesn’t quite feel like a done deal to me, and Shorten’s persistent lack of voter appeal is the main reason why it doesn’t.

  19. Gareth,
    Dinner went ahead anyway. I wasn’t going to waste Char Siu Pork Loin with Pak Choy, Plum Sauce and Rice! I cooked it one-handed. 😀

    It was just a neat slice off the top of my thumb, which was magically healed with gum sap from the Angophora tree outside!

  20. His posts annoy me too, but I ignore them.
    But as Sonar says he has the perfect right to post within the bounds set by the page owner, and that’s fine.
    Each to his own.

  22. I was thinking about a blog of my own. Robert Ball could have his own section called ‘Secret Squirrel’ where his fantasies as a secret agent in Canberra can be revealed. He could regale us with his collection of false noses and funny hats. There could be tips on spy tradecraft, perhaps reminisces of the Cold War, his time in Berlin and checkpoint Charlie!

  23. @meher baba….what you said about Shorten not being well liked is spot on. From people who I’ve spoken to they are not endeared to him and are a bit conflicted about the RGR and union stuff but they will vote for him. That’s all the ALP has to worry about.
    He will most propbably turn out to be a good PM…….anything will be better than the last 6 years.

  25. There, u can all see for yourselves what “it”is like, but I ignore “it’s” boorish behaviour. It dislikes being called out out, intensely.
    The baiter, baited and the provoker provoked. It cannot help but be nasty.
    Ignore it, like a whisper in the dark.

  26. Saying “I don’t like Shorten” is fine because it’s just a personal view of like/dislike and can be for any reason. But “count the cutlery if Shorten gets into the Lodge” is nasty and a real accusation of dishonesty with no basis.

  27. Nath

    There was an unpleasant brawl at Crown Casino on Saturday evening widely reported in today’s papers.

    Perhaps you might have been involved or aware of same event given your earlier statements.

    But clearly as you are either an unfunny alcoholic or troll or both you may not remember.

    Today’s Monday by the way.

    Labor has won … convincingly.

  28. You are correct Lizzie, it is an allegation of criminality and a defamation of character. It is one thing to dislike a particular politician, but to spread this lie about the cutlery is another think entirely. He needs to be dealt with please.

  29. It’s like a house inspection at the end of a tenancy, Victoria.

    It’s more likely to protect the incoming tenant than the outgoing.

  30. Akubra
    says:
    Monday, November 26, 2018 at 5:58 pm
    Nath
    There was an unpleasant brawl at Crown Casino on Saturday evening widely reported in today’s papers.
    Perhaps you might have been involved or aware of same event given your earlier statements.
    ________________________
    All I can say is that I held my own and gave as good as I got. Being drunk I mistook an Oompa Loompa on a break from the production of The Wizard of OZ for Bill Shorten and went him. Well didn’t that start an all in brawl, a pretty a melee as you are likely to witness.

  31. meher baba:

    Actually, while I don’t agree with you on the tax policies, I think the rest is totally spot on.

    Most people I know have similar opinions on Shorten – “wooden”, “inauthentic”, “reading off a script”, “don’t trust him,” and so on. But I’ll tell you what, I’d rather be the recipient of adjectives like those than the ones I’m currently hearing used to refer to Scott Morrison and the government.

  35. I wonder what’s happened to Bree? 🙂

    And Pegasus? 🙂

    I guess at least nath has the guts to continue to front up and be delusional. 🙂

  37. Sarah Hanson-Young
    ✔
    @sarahinthesen8
    The Senate this afternoon has descended into a messy, bully house. With a number of male Senators yelling out at female colleagues with threats and a barrage of insults. I’m disgusted and appalled with the level of professionalism in this place. No wonder public hates politicians

  40. Meher:

    [For what it’s worth, my personal view of Shorten is that, notwithstanding his lack of charisma, he has a proven record as a wheeler dealer and would therefore make a pretty effective PM.]

    I don’t often agree with your posts but I do agree with the above.

    Frankly, “leadership charisma” is the most over-rated requirement for being a PM.

    The PM should be eponymously the first among equals. Perhaps in a time of all-out war one would want a bit of charisma, but not now. What is wanted is a PM who can manage the talents and hard-work of the fellow cabinet ministers to achieve promised policy objectives.

    “Preferred PM” is a meaningless beauty contest. Howard was no “beauty” when he came to office (or any time afterwards IMO) but he won 3 more elections. Whoever is/will be Parliamentary leader of the ALP will have all sorts of mud thrown at them by the putrid press and, if the past is a guide, at some stage be required give evidence before a Royal Comm.

    Shorten isn’t precisely my cup of tea on policy issues. But he seems hardworking, flexible on achieving modest, but important policy outcomes (i.e. the NEG with improved targets) and clearly harnesses the talents of his shadow ministerial colleagues without incurring wrath or loathing. I know from personal experience that he is a capable background operator willing to get achievements for others without any hope, let alone expectation, that his efforts will ever be recognised.

    Finally, he is a very straightforward person to meet personally with, perhaps unsurprisingly, few airs or graces. Which is why he apparently does well on his town hall meet and greets.

    Lack of charisma is his long suit. He correctly plays it to his advantage by avoiding the reviled (for equally irrational reasons) moniker of being “arrogant”.

  42. MB no doubt Shorten doesn’t appeal to the wider population as you would think given how long he has been been OL and how bad the government has been under three PMs.

    In my mind what would make a ‘done deal’ would be an opposition putting forward a policy agenda, winning the election and steadily implementing that, with no ‘surprises’. Then putting themselves forward for reelection.

    Until a leader has been PM and succeeded or otherwise is isn’t ‘done’.
    Certainly Howard did this (albeit with the black hole budget) as did Hawke and Keating before him.
    Since then, not so much.

  45. Cat

    It’s so sweet of you to always inquire after me even if it’s always to have a snide dig. You’re not the only one here who seem to always have me on their minds.

  47. People were:

    dizzy with Rudd love
    ecstatic about Abbott
    delirious about the godlike Turnbull when he rolled Abbott

    I recall in each instance knowing better. Much, much better.

    The electorate was wrong. wrong. wrong.

    If the PPM is to be believed Morrison is the electorate’s pet, compared with Shorten.

    But it is quite obvious that the electorate’s ability to predict what makes a good prime minister is not to be trusted.

    We know that Shorten will make a good prime minister because he has done great and big things as a minister (NDIS), because he is somewhere close to the middle of Australia in his values and his views, because he does listen to people, because he is capable of putting an effective team together, and because he allows competent people to be competent around him.

    Oh, and one more thing: Shorten has a bit of the old mongrel.

    Another common failure is to assume that you have to be likeable to be a good prime minister.
    Keating put this one to bed when he made the comment, ‘If you want a friend in politics, get yourself a dog.’

    In terms of his PPM figures, Shorten picks up around three quarters of the Labor voters. That would be about right, IMO. You can’t be everything to all people unless you are lying and misrepresenting yourself big time. The other quarter in the Labor who will not name Shorten for PM would be those in the Left of the Party. No Greens supporters would support Shorten for PPM. No PHON supporters would support Shorten for PPM. No Nationals supporters will support him for PPM. Virtually no Liberals will support him for PPM. The odds and sods, ditto.

    So, Shorten lurks in the low to mid thirties in PPM.

    So what?

    PPM matters zip. What matters is 55/45 2PP.

    There is another advantage for Shorten. As Rudd’s, Abbott’s and Turnbull’s PPM figures slid, they started to behave in a more and more bizarre fashion.

    IMO, Shorten’s PPM figures will go up a bit when he becomes PM. Not by much, IMO. But it will not matter. Nor will it matter much when they slide back to the low thirties.

    What will matter is whether the Shorten Government is competent. IMO, the Shadows look, act and talk competently. Mostly. They have rich experience. They are smart. Their policies are generally pretty damn good, as well.

  48. Oh, and one more thing: Shorten has a bit of the old mongrel.
    ___________________________________
    Well we know that. You don’t shaft low paid workers for numbers at conference to get your own seat. Then once in Parliament, knife 2 PM’s to advance your own career! He’s got plenty of mongrel, but how disingenuous to hide it behind this humble/empathetic routine!

  49. Nath

    Careful you never lay into what you take to be a potato, a beetroot or a bear shaped muppet. You might accidentally be taking out some of the coalitions few leadership options.

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