Two much better results for the Coalition this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have knocked 0.8% off Labor’s still commanding two-party lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This converts into three gains on the seat projection, being one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.
For those playing particularly close attention, I am not making use here of The West Australian’s local poll by unheralded market research outfit Painted Dog Research, as I have no benchmark for calculating bias adjustments for them. In any case, it was a small sample poll that particularly low primary votes for both major parties. I have, however, included it in the archive of poll results you can find with a bit of digging under the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page.
Bill Shorten maintains a steady upward trend on the leadership ratings, on which I’m still not producing a result for Scott Morrison – this will require a fair bit of tinkering that I won’t have time for until the poll drought over new year. Full results, as always, on the link below.
So the desalination plant was sold and nsw taxpayers have been paying an availability charge since then. Now it’s about to be switched on and we are going to be slugged an additional charge.
Isn’t privitisation a modern miracle.
Straw-grasper-ometer registering a 7.8 on Sky for the Libs . Kennett’s surprise election loss getting multiple mentions 🙂
Itza
It must be fun to be a German director and place Wagner’s operas in the context of the last 150 years of history.
Parsifal particularly seems to cause problems. I saw a Stefan Herheim production which took place from the Franco-Prussian War to the present. A boy in Hitler Youth uniform, surrounded by Swastikas a troop of SS threw the spear of Longinus and the audience physically groaned
In the final act Titurel’s coffin was displayed on the floor of the Bundestag while delegates threw papers at each other
God knows what it all meant but there was plenty of colour and movement
oakeshott country @ #1553 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 6:49 pm
I ‘bumped’ into Herheim at interval, during its final season. He was charming, and generous. I heard myself saying to him – ‘It’s like (I imagine) being on acid!’. ‘As is the work’ came his quick reply.
(I think we were two years behind you)
So how did the Lobster with the Mobster’s Laura Norder campaign turn out ????????
/https://public-media.smithsonianmag.com/filer/b6/11/b611d42c-35bb-4aec-a220-34c4a6ec7afe/nasm-si-98-15068.jpg)
ItzaDream @ #1532 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 5:40 pm
There are better youtubes, without the video. I have the cd.
The audience insisted on a repeat, right away. I was crying, too.
He is a charming, utterly unaffected person. His speaking voice is a normal baritone. His singing voice is something else again.
sprocket_ @ #1547 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 6:01 pm
He’ll have lots of time to visit the friends he made in Iraq.
At least Frydenberg looks sober tonight…
The Silver Bodgie
Josh worried after a visit from the “Ghost of
ChristmasElection Yet to Come”So the saviour in the bus went north and the votes up north went south. What would have happened if the bus went south? Lol
Player One says:
Friday, November 23, 2018 at 12:20 pm
sustainable future @ #955 Friday, November 23rd, 2018 – 12:12 pm
the inaccuracy is not a reason not to have reporting and some form or pricing and/or regulation to bring emissions down
I am not opposed to reporting. The NGER process is sufficient for estimating or demonstrating our compliance with various national and international obligations. They are sufficient for us to do a gross estimate of whether our emissions are increasing or declining in some sectors (but not others, such as land clearing or forestry).
But when businesses are going to be asked for fork out actual dollars per unit of C02 emitted, they would generally not be sufficient. This is why ETS’s tend to be applied only where emissions can be accurately and unambiguously measured.
*****************
Clearly you’ve never been involved with NGER reporting. I have.
As is usual for you, you are talking rubbish on subjects that you clearly know absolutely nothing about.
NGER is as good as we’re going to get without going off and metering everything which emits greenhouse gasses.
yabba, special stuff that. The counter tenor otherworldiness is as a voice from beyond. What affects me most in those experiences is the ‘joining’ of minds in absolute focus, and the collective transcendence.
Tony Abbott better start getting worried.
Itzadream
Ever seen a Sydney audience at the City Recital Hall give a genuine standing ovation, to a man and a woman? Me neither, till Tognetii’s astounding Beethoven no 5. Grown men wept; well, the one next to me did.
_________________________________
Saw it in Canberra. Just fabulous, as was his Violin Concerto. The ACO has become something special.
Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
Oh what a night!
Good morning Dawn Patrollers on a day where finally the Coalition might, just might come to the realisation that its adherences to right wing views doesn’t cut it any more.
“It’s a wipeout!” declares The Age.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/wipeout-for-the-liberals-as-andrews-surges-to-victory-on-huge-red-wave-20181124-p50i53.html
Tim Colebatch explains how preference deals have cleaned the Greens out of the upper house.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/preference-deals-pay-off-for-microparties-and-wipe-out-greens-in-victoria-s-upper-house-20181124-p50i5m.html
Noel Towell says that last night’s demolition job leaves the Liberals looking at eight years in the wilderness.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/demolition-job-leaves-liberals-looking-at-eight-years-in-the-wilderness-20181124-p50i56.html
Bevan Shields writes about the early onset blame game that has begun as the crushing defeat in Victoria throws the spotlight on Canberra.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/blame-game-begins-as-crushing-defeat-in-victoria-throws-the-spotlight-on-canberra-20181124-p50i4w.html
The Australian’s John Ferguson says that the Victorian debacle will rebound on Morrison.
https://outline.com/79bVvF
Katharine Murphy says the Victorian election will make federal Liberal MPs contemplate their own mortality.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/24/victorian-election-will-make-federal-liberal-mps-contemplate-their-own-mortality
The Greens’ hopes of capturing a swag of inner-city seats in the lower house of the Victorian Parliament slumped on Saturday night, with Labor retaining the key marginal seat of Richmond and winning back the seat of Northcote.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/greens-vote-slumps-labor-set-to-be-returned-in-key-inner-city-seats-20181124-p50i4y.html
I what is more than a humorous contribution Jacqui Maley explore the “Trumpiness” that Morrison has developed.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-gets-in-touch-with-his-inner-trumpiness-20181123-p50hwv.html
Michael Koziol reports that the man Malcolm Turnbull once dubbed “the world’s leading demographer” has warned Premier Gladys Berejiklian against “pushing the panic button” on immigration, saying it could undermine Sydney’s economic success.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/don-t-push-the-immigration-panic-button-leading-demographer-tells-gladys-berejiklian-20181123-p50hwi.html
Peter FitzSimons declares that The Parrot is on the way out. And he wants Morrison to front up over his Hillsong friend in trouble over child sexual abuse cover up.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-walls-are-closing-in-2gb-management-wants-alan-jones-out-20181123-p50hwz.html
Elizabeth Knight writes that ASIC’s report card belongs with the squashed banana at the bottom of the school bag. Ouch!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/asic-s-report-card-belongs-with-the-squashed-banana-at-the-bottom-of-the-school-bag-20181123-p50hyc.html
Fergus Hunter reports that Mark Butler has hit out at the Morrison government’s sudden attempt to accelerate landmark national security legislation, with the political hostilities threatening to undermine the consistent bipartisanship of a powerful parliamentary committee.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/butt-out-labor-frontbencher-rejects-peter-dutton-s-push-to-speed-up-national-security-bill-20181124-p50i3g.html
The SMH editorial says that failure of the new Northern Beaches Hospital is definitely not an option.
https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/failure-of-northern-beaches-hospital-not-an-option-20181123-p50hya.html
Gareth Hutches writes that the royal commission has shown that the biggest banking scandal is that everyone knew – but still did nothing.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/24/the-biggest-banking-scandal-is-that-everyone-knew-but-still-did-nothing
John Collett tells us that property prices are falling across Sydney and Melbourne, people who bought off the plan some time ago and are only settling now who are likely to be in for a rude shock.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/off-the-plan-units-warning-as-more-buyers-settle-at-lower-valuations-20181122-p50hpo.html
John Elder says that Trump has taken a leaf out of Scott Morrison’s sneak playbook – releasing a devastating report on climate change while the country was distracted by the busiest shopping day of the year.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2018/11/24/horror-climate-report/
Walter Shapiro opines that if Trump is cornered, the judges he disdains may finally bring him down.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/23/donald-trump-judges-walter-shapiro
Meanwhile a state judge in Manhattan ruled Friday that a lawsuit by the New York state attorney general could proceed against President Donald Trump and the Trump Foundation over allegations of misused charitable assets, self-dealing and campaign finance violations during the 2016 presidential campaign.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/11/24/trump-foundation-lawsuit/
Jennifer Duke has some ideas on how to six a couple of major issues facing the ABC.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/abc-funding-guthrie-milne-fifield-board-20181123-p50hvr.html
Michael West says Macquarie chief Nicholas Moore unfurled an interesting new historical perspective this week when, appearing before the Banking Royal Commission, he praised corporate regulators for doing an excellent job regulating Macquarie.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/macquarie-bank-praises-asic-at-hayne-royal-commission-but-of-course/
Sally Whyte reports that up to 50 jobs at the Australian Maritime Safety Authority will move to Coffs Harbour under the government’s latest decentralisation push, but it is yet to be decided how many will be relocated from Canberra.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/fifty-australian-maritime-safety-authority-jobs-to-move-to-coffs-harbour-20181123-p50hu9.html
Things to consider when one is getting ready to apply for a home loan from a lending institution.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/a-little-christmas-spending-could-harm-your-chances-of-a-home-loan-20181123-p50hyx.html
Theresa May has been accused of bringing the honours system into disrepute after handing a knighthood to a former minister known to be wavering on whether or not to support her Brexit deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/23/theresa-may-accused-of-giving-knighthood-to-win-mps-brexit-support
PR specialist Pau Cheal explains what Aldi can teach us all, including politicians, about trust.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-aldi-can-teach-us-all-politicians-included-about-trust-20181123-p50hv7.html
Bloody hell! South Australia’s favourite fish — the King George whiting — is selling for up to $90 a kilo, putting it on par with luxury items like lobster and abalone and out of reach of most families.
https://outline.com/bawwbf
The ANZAC myth has been constructed to serve conservative interests, writes Bruce Haigh.
https://independentaustralia.net/australia/australia-display/the-anzacs-ransacked-by-the-right,12128
And for “Arsehole of the Week” nomination we have . . .
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/banned-from-driving-four-times-how-ceo-made-staff-lie-to-beat-charge-20181123-p50hyd.html
Cartoon Corner
Matt Golding has gone troppo!
Zanetti is a sore loser.
This was a prescient contribution from Alan Moir.
There is a mighty lot more from Matt Golding cartoons among this lot.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/asic-s-report-card-belongs-with-the-squashed-banana-at-the-bottom-of-the-school-bag-20181123-p50hyc.html
Good Morning
What an incredible result for Labor. Swept all before them. It was a bad day/night not to be Labor. One very nervous young guy for Brighton. Was great to see. Is he the youngest to be elected in Victoria?
The denial of Frydenberg was a joy to see. Good signs for Labor Federally. Being progressive and pointing out racism scare campaigns work. Its going to be very interesting to see how Dutton and Labor interact in future.
The other big loser was Murdoch last night. Labor is progressive again. Very very scary for the right.
@lynlinking tweets
Blame game begins as crushing defeat in Victoria throws the spotlight on Canberra worried about La Trobe,held by 3.5% Deakin by Peter Dutton ally Michael Sukkar on 6.3 % Casey by Speaker Tony Smith on should be a safe margin of 4.5 % https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/blame-game-begins-as-crushing-defeat-in-victoria-throws-the-spotlight-on-canberra-20181124-p50i4w.html via @canberratimes
That popcorn feeling continues
@SBSNews tweets
The federal Liberal party has wiped its hands of responsibility for a trouncing at the Victorian state poll #auspol https://bit.ly/2OVrpRf
@lynlinking tweets
Cloud over inner-city seats shocks Greens
They were touted as possible kingmakers but the Greens have emerged from Victoria’s election facing the prospect of a weaker presence in parliament http://www.mandurahmail.com.au/story/5775790/cloud-over-inner-city-seats-shocks-greens/?cs=9397 via @mandurahmail
guytaur,
If you look at Mr Bowe’s Victorian election page you will see that Brighton is back in the Liberal column.
Cat
Oh. Damn!
Pity on the job experience would have been great 🙂
I will go look for an update. Just so gobsmacked at how good the result was.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/the-walls-are-closing-in-2gb-management-wants-alan-jones-out-20181123-p50hwz.html
Oh dear!!!!!!
@washingtonpost tweets
Analysis: Trump played so little golf last month that he tied Obama https://wapo.st/2RcPC7m
😆
Morning all. Thanks BK for the summary of a lot of happy news. The Liberals can stay in denial all they like, it is clear that the voters are sick of it.
This summary from Lenore Taylor in the Guardian highlights the basic issue, that a lot of middle suburban voters have moved straight from Liberal to Labor.
“Labor’s primary vote in Saturday’s state contest is north of 40%, the Liberals south of 30%, and the swing against the Liberals in Melbourne is in the order of 8%.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/24/victorian-election-will-make-federal-liberal-mps-contemplate-their-own-mortality
It was such a clear result that it only highlighted how farcical certain senior Liberals were being when they tried to spin it away from discussion of the Federal leadership. They are toast and they know it.
Fryedtheparty said six months is an eternity in politics. But there are only a few weeks till the christmas break, after week it will be the phoney war before the election. There are no policy tricks left to play. I have said before that you will see a lot of marginal seat Liberal MPs reassess their futures over the break and quietly announce their retirements by January.
On the subject of denial.
William Walker, a councillor from Newry, agreed. “A good vibe today.”
You could feel it in the panel discussion titled “sharing the prosperity: a regional approach to inclusive growth in the UK”, with upbeat scenarios about a coming golden age of Brexit. The conference centre rooms were named after plants. This one was called Hemlock.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2018/nov/24/boris-bedazzles-dup-with-brexit-balm-on-a-cold-belfast-night?CMP=twt_gu
A question for those who know Victoria. Whilst the Federal leadership chaos obviously impacted on this state result, there seems no reason to believe that the Federal Liberal result in Victoria will be any better than the State debacle. Sure there were state issues, but I think that scumMo is actually less popular in Melbourne than Guy turned out to be. The State Libs kept him away conspicuously during the campaign.
So my question is: if this swing, just in Melbourne, held in the next Federal election, would enough Federal seats change hands in Victoria alone to give Labor victory? Labor will already gain two from the redistribution, and this would seem to put them over the bar.
This summary from Lenore Taylor in the Guardian highlights the basic issue, that a lot of middle suburban voters have moved straight from Liberal to Labor.
And I think this is for 2 main reasons, seemingly competing with one another but relevant:
* Labor are seen by many cautious former Liberal voters to have gotten the Green monkey off their back. Dan Andrews repeatedly made a point of saying he wouldn’t do a deal with them. Federal Labor have said the same.
* Labor are embracing Progressive Taxation, IR, Social Welfare, Public Services and Environment policies, which Suburban and Regional voters like but not as extreme as The Greens’.
Put them together and you have the Goldilocks algorithm for voting Labor. 🙂
Eddy Jockovich gives us the unknown Scott Morrison.
http://newpolitics.com.au/2018/11/24/the-unknown-scott-morrison/
Cat
In my humble opinion the Greens need to ditch Di Natale. They need more Jason Ball types that go after the LNP.
The moderate liberal progressive is there for the Greens. It was always the case as Bob Brown pointed out that the Greens would cease to exist if Labor took the environment problems seriously. 🙂
This factoid from Peter FitzSimons’ column is an important one to keep in mind (also applies to fallout from fires caused by Global Warming):
“Literally hundreds of people are dying preventable deaths every year because of coal-fired power.” – Ben Ewald, a GP and public health lecturer at the University of Newcastle, about a study showing that the impact of air pollution from NSW’s five coal-fired power stations carries a “substantial health burden”, including leading to an estimated 279 deaths a year with thousands more to come before they close.
guytaur,
I agree that RDN is lead in the saddlebags of The Greens. From the talent available to them atm they should pick Peter Whish-Wilson if they want to appeal to the Doctors’ Wives segment of the Liberal demographic.
wow what a pathetic and spiteful effort by Zanetti this morning
BK
That is a very damning summary of Morrison’s motivation and character (although not surprising). I hope that very soon he gets his comeuppance.
guytaur @ #1581 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 8:17 am
They can ditch RDN but as long as Labor act like a genuine left wing democratic socialist party with environmental impact, the Greens vote will stay low.
News 24 ..Fantastic to see trickle down right wing cut tax cut red tape as an answer to getting more voter support… ideal material for elevation to Banker class.
Cat
Its going to be very interesting to see what the Greens do. If they are smart they will learn from the Canberra and NZ Greens.
I think voters have punished them for poor party processes for dealing with issues like misgynism and sexual allegations. Makes them seem really inauthentic. Death for a party like the Greens.
I think without that the Greens would have at least held on not gone backwards.
Infrastructure is a huge factor as most of us know.
In Victoria, the level crossing program has delivered big swings to Labor right across the suburban areas..
At a federal level Labor will capitalise on the Liberal divisions and should now run hard on their socialist infrastructure agenda and ditch the Labor right neo-lib tendencies.
RD
Yes. Thats correct.
My point about RDN is he is making it happen faster. The Greens are not adapting to the changing political situation. Then you throw in those poor party processes and being slow and ineffectual to act on them and you get results like those we have seen in the last few elections for the Greens.
I have to agree with others the Zanetti “cartoon” is quite pathetic this morning. It is false and isn’t even funny. Seems like he hasn’t got the message from Liberal HQ that the scare campaign did not work.
Also kudos to the voters of middle Melbourne for not falling for a racist scare campaign.
Something enjoyable from The Australian. 🙂
https://outline.com/EM3GFp
“Trying to scare people into voting for you is not leadership”.
Dan Andrews is nailing it talking to David Speers.
BK
For arsehole of the week I nominate Zanetti. What a pathetically churlish effort.
poroti
Yes, you have a point.
BK @ #1593 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 8:32 am
A very strong interview from Andrews.
I am not surprised by Zanetti’s cartoon. Its an expression of the Murdoch stable real reaction.
Their Fox business model is failing to win elections in Australia.
Thus such an alternative reality view of the election result.
“I have to agree with others the Zanetti “cartoon” is quite pathetic this morning. It is false and isn’t even funny. “
Pretty typical of his efforts, except that the CFMEU guy isn’t in it.
His work looks like it might have been produced by a failed student in of a propaganda school.
The other thing about the Zanetti tantrum is the insult to the voters of Victoria. You are all a bunch of peasants and obviously stupid to support such policies.
One thing stood out for me as I watched last night.
Dan Andrews has been chipped at by the ABC for “refusing to mention Guy’s name”. All his responses to Q were positive and looked to the future.
Compare this to both Fed and State Libs, who couldn’t (can’t) resist carping and snarling at Labor in every response, even if irrelevant. Frydenberg is a particularly nasty example, but there are many others.