Victorian election minus two days

Two days to go until an election that is, in a sense, already half over, thanks to the extraordinary growth in pre-poll voting.

Amid the ongoing opinion poll drought, quench your thirst with the following intelligence from John Ferguson and Ewin Hannan of The Australian.

Elsewhere:

• Pre-poll voting continues to be conducted at an unprecedented clip, which will potentially make life different for prognosticators on Saturday night. The Victorian Electoral Commission reports just shy of a million pre-poll votes have been cast, with the trend suggesting upwards of 350,000 are still to come over the next two days, eventually accounting for nearly 40% of all votes cast. Taking postal votes into account as well, little more than half the votes are likely to be cast on election day. This will be the first Victorian election at which pre-poll votes are counted on the night, and if there is indeed a different dynamic on pre-poll votes, the picture that emerges early in the count may be upset later in the night. The VEC site offers full data on the number of pre-poll and postal votes cast by day and by electorate.

• Last night’s apparently incident-free leaders debate was deemed to have been won by Daniel Andrews by 49 members out of the audience of 100 swinging voters hand-picked by Galaxy Research, with 33 favouring Matthew Guy.

• Fourteen months after it came to light and two days before the election, the Herald Sun reports Russell Northe, Nationals-turned-independent member for Morwell, received a $5000 donation ahead of the 2010 election which, a Nationals official says, never made its way to the party’s campaign account. Northe’s departure from the party in August last year occurred against a backdrop of personal and financial difficulties, among which was a gambling problem. The seat is a complicated contest in which Northe might equally lose to the Nationals or Labor (or perhaps even former Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party Senator Ricky Muir, now with Shooters Fishers and Farmers).

• Noel Towell of The Age reports Labor believes it is “close enough to justify extra spending” in Melbourne, which Ellen Sandell of the Greens won from it by a 2.4% margin in 2014. While Labor believes it is drawing blood in its attacks on the Greens for standing by Angus McAlpine, erstwhile gangster rap homeboy and now candidate for Footscray, a party source says it is “treating its research in Melbourne with caution, because of the shortcomings of single-seat polling and the difficulty of accurately gauging voter intentions in inner-city seats”.

• The Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal has prohibited the dissemination of how-to-vote cards in Northcote disseminated by “Citizens for Stable Government”, having determined that they look rather too much like Liberal Party material. Helpfully for Labor, the cards recommended the Greens be placed last, whereas official Liberal material advises voters to make up their own minds.

• Not unsurprisingly, Labor has failed in a legal bid to have fresh ballot papers printed in Yan Yean to acknowledge Meralyn Klein’s new-found status as an independent candidate. Klein was disendorsed by the Liberal Party after the closure of nominations over her links with the far right Australian Liberal Alliance.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

128 comments on “Victorian election minus two days”

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  1. 3z @ #98 Thursday, November 22nd, 2018 – 7:25 pm

    “The Greens have stood down a candidate after a woman wrote to the party accusing one of its candidates in this weekend’s election of raping her.

    The candidate’s name will still appear on ballot papers, with voters none the wiser.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/greens-candidate-stood-down-following-rape-complaint-20181122-p50hpm.html

    This is just beyond the pale. They haven’t disendorsed him either. Just stood him down from campaign activities.

    Democracy is not well served by these last minute accusations that are clearly an attempt to disrupt the process.

    I’m suspicious of the motivations here because of the timing.

  5. If it is a minority Andrews Government, that means a Greens – Labor Coalition which will an absolute disaster for Victoria. A Greens-Labor government turned Tasmania into a basket case, the same will happen to Victoria. There are only 2 days left, Guy needs to tell the public a Greens – Labor government will wipe Victoria off the map.

  12. Given the combination of The Australian and Sky After Dark I’ll rather wait to see the numbers before I swallow their spin on them.

  13. It makes sense that lobster guy would make a last minute attempt to scare voters with theories of hung parliament. Doesnt fit anything else we have seen.

  15. Rumours on Twitter that both polls say too close to call. Could be completely made up but maybe the terrorism thing has scared people into voting for the Liberals.

  20. GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes
    #Galaxy Poll VIC State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 53 (0) L/NP 47 (0) #vicvotes #auspol

    Translate Tweet
    7:53pm · 22 Nov 2018 · Twitter Web Client

  25. I only have Labor winning about 47 seats in my model off 53.4, so 53 to Labor is potentially minority government. But a lot depends on how the Greens go; 53 could also be 50+ seats quite easily.

  26. Minority government is the best possible outcome for the Herald Sun, given the MoE.

    I expect things to become ever more febrile until Saturday night

  27. michael

    I think the majority of Victorians do not want a Labor-Green government, and so they will vote to return a majority Labor government. If Matthew Guy truly believed that the worst thing for Victoria’s future was a Labor-Green government then he should have done everything in his power to prevent this happening – that is, in the event the Coalition didn’t win, that all their preferences were directed to Labor ahead of the Greens.

    Oh, and he could also have run a candidate in Richmond to stave off any chance of the Greens being part of a government.

    I am sticking by my prediction –
    Labor 48, Coalition 35, Greens 3, Independents 2

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