BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Ipsos and Essential’s 52-48 results have knocked nearly a full point off Labor’s lead in the BludgerTrack aggregate, although that still leaves plenty to spare.

Two much better results for the Coalition this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have knocked 0.8% off Labor’s still commanding two-party lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This converts into three gains on the seat projection, being one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

For those playing particularly close attention, I am not making use here of The West Australian’s local poll by unheralded market research outfit Painted Dog Research, as I have no benchmark for calculating bias adjustments for them. In any case, it was a small sample poll that particularly low primary votes for both major parties. I have, however, included it in the archive of poll results you can find with a bit of digging under the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page.

Bill Shorten maintains a steady upward trend on the leadership ratings, on which I’m still not producing a result for Scott Morrison – this will require a fair bit of tinkering that I won’t have time for until the poll drought over new year. Full results, as always, on the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,091 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

  1. It’s quite simple.
    There’s no love for Bill. But that ain’t the issue.
    The punters are simply waiting for the first chance they get around the nation to give the two fingered salute to the Government who toppled the PM they voted for.

  2. And here it is

    PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-11-25
    Actual: ALP 55 to 45 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.4 to 46.6 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 55

    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 A different Michael
    53 / 47 Al Pal
    54 / 46 Andrew_Earlwood
    53 / 47 Aunt Mavis
    null / null Barney in Go Dau
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    53 / 47 BK
    52 / 48 Boerwar
    54 / 46 briefly
    54 / 46 C@tmomma
    52 / 48 Confessions
    55 / 45 d-money
    50 / 50 Dan Gulberry
    54 / 46 Davidwh
    51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
    52 / 48 Felix
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    54 / 46 Gareth
    54 / 46 Gecko
    55 / 45 Goll
    54 / 46 guytaur
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 imacca
    54 / 46 John Reidy
    60 / 40 KayJay
    53 / 47 Klaus Ahlhaus
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    52 / 48 LongMemory82
    53 / 47 Lynchpin
    53 / 47 Matt31
    55 / 45 nath
    55 / 45 OH
    53 / 47 Outside Left
    52 / 48 Player One
    53 / 47 poroti
    55 / 45 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar
    60 / 40 Question
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    53 / 47 Robert Ball
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    54 / 46 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 sonar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    53 / 47 Steve777
    52.5 / 47.5 The Silver Bodgie
    53 / 47 Tricot
    52 / 48 Tristo
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Victoria
    54 / 46 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba

  3. Yes, the 55-45 to Labor is more likely 57-43 or 58-42 given the evidence that polling organisations understate Labor’s vote and/or overstate the Liberals support, as demonstrated in a series of elections in the past 18 months.

  4. The Libs have slipped into Gillard territory and the outcome will be very similar. We can only hope Shorten will be a better PM than Abbott was. Not a high hurdle to overcome

  5. Shorten won a lot seats off Turnbull in the last election, despite trailing badly at the beginning of the year against the universally adored Mal. If Shorten was disliked and Turnbull was loved, then imagine what will happen to ScoMo once Shorten is finished with him.

  6. Changing leaders again – surely even these idiots are not that stupid. Or are they?

    News ltd Sydney columnists and Sky After Dark creeps have been suggesting on social media a change in leadership to Dutton would reverse their fortunes.

  7. Remember things are going to change as soon as Kerry’n Phelps is sworn in.

    Already the LNP are in same territory with an anti corruption commission as they were with the Banking Royal Commission.

    Plenty of scope for LNP to get worse polling

  8. Newspoll is before the “pull factor” from the Victorian State Election and Labor’s landslide victory

    This Newspoll has 60/40 written all over it

    No Coalition seat is safe – including from Independents

    The messages of Wagga Wagga, Wentworth and now Victoria are resonating across the Nation

    Turnbull’s concession speech was highly anticipated

    But Australians are even more so looking forward to the blunderbus Borrison making his concession speech which should be a beauty like Henderson blaming Labor “lies” as she has today in defending the Victorian result

  9. Abbott has been the most rotten, destructive, dangerous thing in Australia this century.
    Yes, Dutton has potential, but Abbott is a proven wrecker. In fact its his only talent.

  10. Looking at the polls is good to while away the time, but none of them really mean much in terms of the actual election. Although they mean more than preferred PM!

    I am convinced, based on decades of watching Australian politics, that those voters whose hearts are not with one or the other of the major party groupings simply will not vote for a divided, confused party over.a united party. And scare campaigns won’t make a difference – as they didn’t in Victoria – if these voters have no confidence that the party doing the scaring are capable of providing protection.

    If Shorten was able to get within a few seats of knocking off Turnbull at the last election over the course of the election campaign, he will find clownshoes a total walkover.

    I won’t predict the outcome, but the only thing that can save the furniture for the Coalition is if they actually started to come up with policies that were relevant to non-committed voters. Anyone but Bill Shorten is not a policy – although they can’t even execute that properly. They seem to have delivered EVERYONE but Bill Shorten.

  11. Cud

    Abbott has been the most rotten, destructive, dangerous thing in Australia this century.
    Yes, Dutton has potential, but Abbott is a proven wrecker. In fact its his only talent.

    _________________________________

    This century? My lifetime! And quite possibly since Federation.

  12. One dangerous (for rhe saner part of the Liberal party) in Benson’s article

    The poll suggests that core Liberal and Nationals voters have abandoned the Coalition, with votes shifting again to One ­Nation, which recorded a significant two-point bounce to 8 per cent

    That should get the after dark crowd going.

  13. Perth Wild Cats (who are Red).
    V8 Racing Ford wins (Shell Cars, who are red).
    Labor wins landslide in Victoria.

    Is the country going to color?

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