BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Ipsos and Essential’s 52-48 results have knocked nearly a full point off Labor’s lead in the BludgerTrack aggregate, although that still leaves plenty to spare.

Two much better results for the Coalition this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have knocked 0.8% off Labor’s still commanding two-party lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This converts into three gains on the seat projection, being one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

For those playing particularly close attention, I am not making use here of The West Australian’s local poll by unheralded market research outfit Painted Dog Research, as I have no benchmark for calculating bias adjustments for them. In any case, it was a small sample poll that particularly low primary votes for both major parties. I have, however, included it in the archive of poll results you can find with a bit of digging under the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page.

Bill Shorten maintains a steady upward trend on the leadership ratings, on which I’m still not producing a result for Scott Morrison – this will require a fair bit of tinkering that I won’t have time for until the poll drought over new year. Full results, as always, on the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,091 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  3. “If Dan Andrews was truly committed to a progressive state, he should have spent less time attacking the Greens and more time worrying about the backroom deals that have the potential to see a host of right-wing MPs controlling the agenda in the upper house,” Dr Ratnam said.

    If the Greens were truly committed to a progressive state, they would’ve spent less time attacking Labor and more time focusing on winning over small-l Liberal voters disenfranchised by the Kroger numpty vision.

  4. According to Sheridan the people of Australia are too stupid to appreciate the brilliance of our dear happy-clappy leader:

    Morrison shift you didn’t see
    GREG SHERIDAN
    The nation has not comprehended yet the depth and range of the Prime Minister’s profoundly important actions this past month. (Oz headline)

  5. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/22/bludgertrack-53-9-46-1-labor-5/comment-page-40/#comment-3011393

    If we had lower house proportional representation, it is unlikely that it would be a single state wide electorate. In Australia we generally use multiple multi-member electorates, with preferential voting. The Nationals would likely continue to do well in the electorate in their good regions, although not as well as under single member.

  6. citizen @ #2005 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 9:11 pm

    According to Sheridan the people of Australia are too stupid to appreciate the brilliance of our dear happy-clappy leader:

    Morrison shift you didn’t see
    GREG SHERIDAN
    The nation has not comprehended yet the depth and range of the Prime Minister’s profoundly important actions this past month. (Oz headline)

    Oh. Yes. They. Have. And they don’t like them.

  8. The nation has not comprehended yet the depth and range of the Prime Minister’s profoundly important actions this past month. (Oz headline)
    +++
    Not ANOTHER $30m to Foxtel?

  9. The nation has not comprehended yet the depth and range of the Prime Minister’s profoundly important actions this past month.

    The nation fully comprehended the empty bus to nowhere in Qld, while the PM was complaining about migrants congesting the freeways. Likewise the nation fully comprehends the slapstick approach Morrison has brought to the office of PM, the cringeworthy, nudge-nudge, wink-wink misogyny as he jokes with ‘the boys’ on FM radio, and his Sydney Shire Schtick that resonates nowhere other than his own electorate and on 2GB.

    If all that has a greater depth and range, then that would truly be incomprehensible. So maybe Sheridan is onto something.

  13. The extraordinarily prescient Chris Kenny!


    @chriskkenny

    Daniel Andrews is finished. Soft on crime. Paid a billion dollars not to build a tunnel. Siphoned taxpayers’ money to get elected. A drovers dog could beat him.
    4:30 PM – 21 Mar 2018

  17. Sheridan is an idiot LNP mouthpiece. There are a few of them. 🙁

    Watchin gAlbo on National Wrap. speaking well………

    OMG!!!!! He’s making a Speech!!! Obviously Bill Shortens leadership is at risk as soon as parliament goes back!!!!!!!

  18. The Libs at present remind me of the band on the Titanic who kept on playing while the ship was sinking. Nothing much else to do really.

  20. Nicola Sturgeon is less than impressed with Theresa May’s letter to the people jsus before the EU Brexit vote.
    “I don’t say this lightly, but almost nothing in this desperate letter is true. This is a bad deal, driven by the PM’s self defeating red lines and continual pandering to the right of her own party. Parliament should reject it and back a better alternative.”

  21. Can anyone fact check Friar Josh claim that power prices in Victoria increased by 80% after the power station closure?
    I know he’s lying about crime increasing in Victoria.

  22. Well said someone on Sky “People didn’t vote for Labor because the Liberal party were not right wing enough” . What a shame it does not seem a majority position on Sky 😆

  29. We won’t ever have proportional representation in the lower house

    Our system is brilliant.
    -Single member electorates in the house of government
    -Compulsory voting
    -Compulsory preferential voting
    -PR in the house of review

    The government is formed (nearly always) by the party whose candidates in a majority of seats are preferred over the next most prefered candidates

    The system creates strong incentives for the parties of government to pursue broad constituencies to achieve lower house majorities.

    Narrower groups that feel “under-represented” can organise and pursue seats in the house of review, and influence the lower house.

  31. Prof. Higgins @ #1982 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 8:00 pm

    In case it hasn’t been posted here yet, the Democratic Party picked up their 39th House of Representatives gain today with the concession by 2-term Republican Mia Love (yes, the one chided by Trump for not giving him any love). What a marvellous month this has been, psephologically speaking! 🙂

    The mystery is how a black woman (as Ms Love is) could ever have stood for the Republicans.

  41. Good evening all ,

    I was one of those who posted that the Ipsos and Essential polls from last week were indicative of a shift away from labor.

    First to acknowledge I was a bit ” spooked” by the changes and looking for a reason or reasons. Glad to see I was wrong.

    I will just have to harden up !

    Cheers and a great night to all.

  42. The majority of Victorians have listened and have concluded that the Libs and their handbag, the Nats, give wads of money to mates and the finger to everyone else.
    The Greens need to work out what they want besides telling everyone else what they want.

  43. sprocket_

    But you missed the real story – PPM – Morrison 46 Shorten 34!

    Don’t worry, it will be front and centre on The Australian’s front page.

    Right on cue: Coalition slides but PM popular

  49. Seems as though the collective opinion is, ‘Look, I love you Scotty mate, but the rest of your family’s dysfunctional!’ 🙂

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