BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Ipsos and Essential’s 52-48 results have knocked nearly a full point off Labor’s lead in the BludgerTrack aggregate, although that still leaves plenty to spare.

Two much better results for the Coalition this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have knocked 0.8% off Labor’s still commanding two-party lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This converts into three gains on the seat projection, being one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

For those playing particularly close attention, I am not making use here of The West Australian’s local poll by unheralded market research outfit Painted Dog Research, as I have no benchmark for calculating bias adjustments for them. In any case, it was a small sample poll that particularly low primary votes for both major parties. I have, however, included it in the archive of poll results you can find with a bit of digging under the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page.

Bill Shorten maintains a steady upward trend on the leadership ratings, on which I’m still not producing a result for Scott Morrison – this will require a fair bit of tinkering that I won’t have time for until the poll drought over new year. Full results, as always, on the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,091 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. I remain to be convinced of Labor using the NEG framework. Its complex and opaque by design. It is also unclear how efficient it is in pricing carbon or why it wont be gamed.

  2. Cud chewer
    I agree with all of the above, but to date more damage has been done by the Liberals gaming the need for a price on carbon. They needed to be wedged good and solid.

  3. ‘Never seen things this bad’: Soy farmers fume as their crops rot in storage thanks to Trump’s trade wars

    US. farmers finishing their harvests are facing a big problem – where to put the mountain of grain they cannot sell to Chinese buyers.

    Fontenot plowed under 1,000 of his 1,700 soybean acres this fall, chopping plants into the dirt instead of harvesting more than $300,000 worth of beans.

  4. Money-laundering experts being hired by House Intel Dems to investigate Trump’s financial ties to Russia: report

    Three sources who spoke to the Daily Beast revealed that the panel intends to hire the experts, and one confirmed that Democrats on the committee are doing so “to examine unanswered financial questions about Trump and Russia.”

    The report noted that Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), the likely pick to take over the committee, has signaled in the past his interest in investigating Trump’s relationship to Germany-based Deutsche Bank.

    Deutsche Bank loaned money to Trump at times when other lenders wouldn’t, the report noted, and the president may still owe it money.

  5. Looks like P1 may at last be pleased with Labor’s new Energy policy. Well, at least a little bit:

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will pledge direct financial support for new projects to offer reliable electricity supply, leaving the door open to gas-fired power but ruling out any help for coal.

    But also:

    Mr Shorten will outline the plan on Thursday alongside a $200 million policy to subsidise the installation of batteries in 100,000 homes so more Australians can store electricity from their solar panels, improving reliability.

  6. Scott Morrison is now definitely appealing to the right-wing populist vote, although in a somewhat sneaky way. I don’t believe it will prevent the Coalition from losing the election. However the results could be quite interesting with the Coalition retaining quite marginal electorates, while losing more safer ones at the same time.

  7. And in a good news story for the day, not all billionaires are bastards:

    If you follow global conservation and don’t already know the name Hansjörg Wyss, there’s a good chance you soon will.

    Born in Bern, Switzerland, the 83-year-old entrepreneur and businessman first made his fortune in the Belgian steel industry before establishing the U.S. division of Synthes, a multinational medical device manufacturer best known for producing internal screws and plates used to help mend fractured bones. (The company has since been acquired by Johnson & Johnson.)

    Now, Wyss — an avid outdoorsman and not-all-that improbable resident of the quaint mountain town of Wilson, Wyoming — is set to help mend the planet’s most fractured natural areas with the establishment of the Wyss Campaign for Nature, a special project of the Wyss Foundation that aims to conserve and protect 30 percent of the planet’s lands and oceans by 2030. This is double the amount of the planet’s surface that’s currently protected.

    Bolstered by a $1 billion investment, the campaign plans to reach this ambitious benchmark by “creating and expanding protected areas, establishing more ambitious international conservation targets, investing in science, and inspiring conservation action around the world.”

  8. I wonder how thinly spread the battery subsidy will be?
    I did the sums for my mum and the cost of a battery can’t be justified. I doubt even a $1000 or even $2000 subsidy would make any difference.

  9. From the Simon Benson article quoted on the previous thread. Given L-NP form it’s unlikely we will get the NEG.
    “The parliament could debate and vote on this before Christmas, if the Liberals were so inclined. And if I am elected as prime minister, I will sit down with the new opposition leader and the crossbench to talk about a way we can move forward with this framework.”

    He will say if the NEG can’t be resurrected, Labor will push ahead with a separate plan

  10. Frankston is a very marginal seat in Vic, but the Libs have chosen a candidate who does not engender confidence. (Recommended as another Clarke and Dawe example.)

    Sky News Australia

    Liberal candidate for Frankston Michael Lamb says his party will get the private industry to build a power station in Victoria, if elected, but admits it will be at least partly taxpayer-funded.

  11. And yeah reading the article. $200 million for 100,000 installs. That’s about $2000 average per install.
    The problem with these kinds of subsidy is that they tend to benefit already well off households. In other words its already people who have the cash to spend who are most likely to take up the subsidy.

  12. Cud

    More details on the plan here. The battery rebate is capped out at $500 per kWh up to $2,000 – therefore a 4kwh battery. These cost about $4-5k, so overall a 50% rebate.

    “The battery program would require people to buy only battery systems approved by the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission and installed only by the highest certified installers. The government would have no role in supply or installation.

    The scheme would begin in January 2020, provide for a rebate of $500 per kilowatt hour of battery capacity, and be capped at $2000 for households earning less than $180,000 in gross annual income.

    Mr Shorten said this would support up to 100,000 battery installations and triple the number operating in Australia. The policy claims this would benefit all electricity users by cutting peak demand and lowering prices overall.”

  13. Cud Chewer @ #11 Thursday, November 22nd, 2018 – 7:20 am

    I wonder how thinly spread the battery subsidy will be?
    I did the sums for my mum and the cost of a battery can’t be justified. I doubt even a $1000 or even $2000 subsidy would make any difference.

    Our landlord received a subsidy to install a Heat Inverter Hot Water system last time the Labor Party were in power and it was enough to, in combination with their personal desire to do good, make them agree to it.

    It’s not always about the $. Altruism plays it’s part.

  14. Question

    Yes,it looks like, one more chance to get it up you weak knee moderate Liberals, then dumped if you once again fall behind the Right wing nutters.

    It’s not as if finkel didn’t make a recommendation.

  15. Cud Chewer @ #15 Thursday, November 22nd, 2018 – 7:25 am

    And yeah reading the article. $200 million for 100,000 installs. That’s about $2000 average per install.
    The problem with these kinds of subsidy is that they tend to benefit already well off households. In other words its already people who have the cash to spend who are most likely to take up the subsidy.

    Not necessarily. As I said, my landlord, who, yes, is wealthy, but I am not, agreed to a subsidy plus costs to install a Heat Inverter Hot Water unit at our rented property. He is sympathetic both to environmental and cost concerns for his tenants.

  16. sprocket, the problem is that 4KWhr isn’t much use. It would run the aircon for about 2-4 hours depending on the conditions. Every time I look at it, a useful system would cost around $10K and therefore a $2000 subsidy isn’t a deal maker.

  17. The basic principle will apply. $1000-2000 in your pocket, for something you were going to do anyway, is better than bupkis. Plus, prices WILL come down in the future, which will make the subsidy even more financially viable.

  18. frednk, I haven’t bothered to fully understand the NEG yet, because I haven’t thought it would ever get up. If the ALP revert to the ETS it will save me some research 🙂

  19. A 45% total emissions reduction target by 2030 is going to be interesting. They’re going to have to get serious about emissions reductions in other sectors besides electricity.

  20. C@t that’s the only way I can see someone like my mum taking this up – is if the price of batteries fall and the subsidy becomes more meaningful as a result.

  21. Urban Wronski
    12h12 hours ago

    American does “$100 billion” worth of arms trade with Saudi Arabia. ABC2 TV News.
    No. Try $5-15 billion at most. Spare us Donald Trump’s disinformation.

  22. Question says:
    Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 7:37 am

    frednk, I haven’t bothered to fully understand the NEG yet, because I haven’t thought it would ever get up. If the ALP revert to the ETS it will save me some research

    It’s a very complex way to do a very simple thing.

  23. frednk

    $10K is about the price of a battery that would suit my mum’s house provided it remains grid connected.

    My advice to mum is to wait a couple of years for batteries to come down.

  24. It’s still hard to persuade people not to “let the cat out” at dusk. They just don’t get it. They refuse to believe that “dear pussy” is a killing machine. (I was involved in running a survey in the nineties.)

    A team of Australian scientists has warned that felines are on the verge of hunting 12 different species in the country to extinction – adding to the 25 they’ve already consigned to the history books. Jim Radford from La Trobe University led a team of over 20 scientists and conservationists to discover the effect cats and foxes are having on the land down under. ‘We found that 63 or about 1 in 3 surviving mammal species are highly susceptible to predation by cats and foxes,’ he warned.

  25. Cud Chewer says:
    Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 7:44 am


    $10K is about the price of a battery that would suit my mum’s house provided it remains grid connected.

    My advice to mum is to wait a couple of years for batteries to come down.

    Batteries and grid connection makes no economical sense. Your sill paying the connection fee; which is basically a charge to maintain the thing, and you add the local system service costs. The only benefit is the different between rates which will never cover the capital cost.

  26. frednk

    You’d need a much, much larger battery to become non grid connected. That’d set you back $50k.
    A more modest battery primarily has the advantage of reducing the use of grid connected power.

    I agree that the savings don’t justify the cost of the battery at current battery prices.

  27. frednk

    I did briefly consider a battery because the elec supply can be unreliable here (we suffer from “fix the largest numbers, not the first to lose power” syndrome, which can leave us without power for 3 days). However, since the battery would only function when the power was on, I quickly dropped the idea.

  28. The Queensland Govt. has announced three subsidies …

    1 Solar and battery – Loans up to $10,000 and/or Grants up to $3,000
    2 Solar only -$4500 loan
    3 Battery only (for those who already have solar) – Loans up to $6,000 and/or Grants up to $3,000

    The parameters seem to be well thought out.
    To apply for a loan or grant you will need to provide:

    a quote from an:
    eligible solar supplier(for solar only), or
    eligible battery supplier (for any system with battery storage)
    your most recent council rates notice
    a copy of your electricity bill
    proof of income to assess your ability to repay the loan (if applying for a loan).
    If applying for a solar loan (without battery storage) you will also need to provide:

    either 6 or 12 months of electricity bills (demonstrating electricity costs at your home of more than $1000 over the past 6 months or more than $2000 over the past 12 months)
    As part of your application you will need to agree to a credit check (if applying for a loan).

    Applications are being assessed now for Solar and batteries before end of year.

  29. Bartone says with the failure of the current Closing the Gap strategy evident: “It is time to address the myth that it is some form of special treatment to provide additional health funding to address additional health needs in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population.

    “Governments spend proportionally more on the health of older Australians when compared to young Australians, simply because elderly people’s health needs are proportionally greater.

    “The same principle should be applied when assessing what equitable Indigenous health spending is relative to non-Indigenous health expenditure.”

  30. Sorry folks. I missed the new thread.

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Yesterday at the royal commission Rowena Orr dropped a bombshell at Catherine Livingston over the potential criminal illegality of scant board minutes writing. All in all Ms Livingstone did not have a good day.
    The 24-hour trial by royal commission of Catherine Livingstone has ended, with the Commonwealth Bank reporting mixed ­success in its no-expense-spared bid to save the reputation of its chairman.
    And Elizabeth Knight says that the royal commission’s corporate governance gold medal for the category of “refusal to accept responsibility” must be awarded to former Commonwealth Bank chairman, David Turner.
    The AFR explains that Kenneth Hayne looks like reshaping the governance of Australia’s leading public companies judging from the line of questioning directed at Commonwealth Bank of Australia chairman Catherine Livingstone and chief executive Matt Comyn.
    At the commission yesterday Westpac chief executive Brian Hartzer said the bank was unable to quantify what proportion of a billion dollars in fees it will have to repay customers who were charged with services they never received because the records were so poor.
    And Aaron Patrick goes to the yesterday’s ten minutes that shamed the CAN’s board.
    Jess Irvine looks at the inevitable shake up that will happen with the mortgage broking industry. It’s certainly overdue.
    Greg Jericho says that the next frontier in the attack on welfare is likely to be on government spending on essential services.
    Paul Daley attacks Abbott’s call for prayers. He says Abbott should read up on the importance of Indigenous connection to country after his latest opportunistic – or wilfully ignorant – stunt
    Matthew Knott writes that the Morrison government should block right-wing US provocateur Gavin McInnes from entering Australia next month because of the strong risk he will incite violence during his visit, according to former Australian Border Force chief Roman Quaedvlieg.
    In a highly critical article John Hewson says that Morrison’s captain’s call on Israel embassy was a misguided stunt.
    David Crowe reports that in a speech from Bill Shorten today Labor will vow to underwrite a series of mammoth new energy projects that ramp up the supply of renewable power, in a long-awaited plan that sidelines a bipartisan agreement in Parliament out of concern the Coalition cannot agree on a united policy.
    Crowe writes that when it comes to climate/energy policy Shorten has learnt from the political disasters that swamped Gillard and Rudd.
    The SMH editorial advises Morrison to avoid population populism.
    Meanwhile Morrison has accused ­senior members of Australia’s Muslim community of being in denial about the causes of Islam­ist terrorism after top community leaders announced they would boycott a proposed meeting convened by the Prime Minister to tackle extremist violence.
    Micheal Koziol writes that the peak legal body has warned Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton an attempt to deport alleged foreign criminals before trial would endanger national security and undermine natural justice. The push by the Home Affairs department to allow unlawful non-citizens facing criminal charges to leave the country without facing court has also angered public prosecutors and attorneys-general.
    The seat of Warringah will offer a lot of entertainment over the next six months or so!
    The PM remains mute as his mentor, Pentecostal Pastor Brian Houston, is investigated for covering up child sexual abuse but demands Muslim leaders take responsibility for their communities’ criminal behaviour, writes Dr Jennifer Wilson.,12123
    It seems Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party could be the main beneficiary of the “preference whisperer” Glenn Druery’s lucrative work on the Victorian state election. According to media reports this week, Druery is on leave from his day job as a Justice Party staffer in the office of Senator Hinch. Academic and journalist, Dr Martin Hirst, crunches the numbers and reports.
    Stephen Koukoulas writes that the usually careful and well considered Reserve Bank of Australia is taking a huge gamble on the Australian economy into 2019 and 2020 as it rolls the dice on house prices.
    A “crisis” in Australia’s child protection services is forcing government agencies to resort to glossy advertising campaigns and mass hiring sprees in a desperate attempt to attract staff to key frontline roles. An investigation by The New Daily has revealed child protective services across the country are battling to attract new talent and combat staff attrition in crucial positions.
    A small but vocal Liberal Party branch in Sydney has passed a motion calling on Malcolm Turnbull to be expelled by the NSW division.
    A food delivery company and a powerful union have proposed alternative ways of regulating gig economy workers to avoid lengthy court battles over whether they are really employees and not independent contractors.
    Emma Koehn reports that lawyers acting for former Retail Food Group chief executive Tony Alford have argued it would be unconstitutional for a parliamentary inquiry to force him to appear for questioning.
    Matt O’Sullivan looks at a worrying Sydney infrastructure symptom apparent in one busy location.
    Phil Coorey tells us how the nation’s 3000 largest businesses will be forced to pay their bills to small and medium enterprises within 20 days as a condition of future government contracts and they will have to disclose every year the details of how promptly they pay bills to these enterprises.
    Jane Gilmore is not overly impressed with Kelly O’Dwyer’s announcement about women being able to access their superannuation to escape domestic violence.
    Peter FitzSimons gets straight to the point when he says the common factor in rugby league atrocities is plain to see – it’s drinking.
    Military historian Peter Stanley tells us that the Australian War Memorial should cease engaging in the mercenary drive to please corporate suits, and focus on the people it ostensibly serves.
    The Defence Department could hide the results of audits into billions of dollars in military spending by using the same excuse the federal government has in suppressing parts of a report into a $1.3 billion spend on armoured vehicles, an inquiry has heard.
    The Australian’s Cameron Stewart writes that Trump has decisively turned America’s moral compass away from human rights and ­towards realpolitik by allowing Saudi Arabia to escape sanctions over the Jamal Khashoggi murder. The decision is a blunt statement about the sort of internat­ional misbehaviour Trump is prepared to tolerate in pursuit of his America First foreign policy.
    Secret deals, mates’ deals and the promise of riches after politics all undermine democracy and the power of ordinary citizens. The following investigation of fossil fuel networks in Australia – put together by Adam Lucas and curated by Simone Marsh – is designed to deliver public awareness.
    The Age has analysed the true crime statistics applying to Victoria.
    Helen Hunt explains why fellow farmers are fighting the Inland Rail route.
    The Morrison government’s plan to roll over forestry agreements for another generation is dire news for endangered species, writes the is the national director of the Wilderness Society.
    The European Commission and Italy have escalated their stand-off over Rome’s expansionary budget, prompting Brussels to kick off a sanctions process that could saddle the EU’s fourth-largest economy with fines totalling billions of euros.
    Steve Bannon’s political operation to help rightwing populists triumph in next year’s European parliamentary elections is in disarray after he conceded that his campaign efforts could be illegal in most of the countries in which he planned to intervene.
    Christopher Knaus tells us that an inquiry has heardt he Coalition’s unprecedented suppression of parts of a report by the auditor general has prompted fears that future criticism of Australia’s massive submarine and naval shipbuilding projects may be suppressed.
    More than 350 South Australian doctors have signed an open letter protesting the closure of two suburban sexual health clinics amid warnings it will lead to a spike in unplanned pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections.
    This politics lecturer says that the Greens are set to be tested on a number of fronts in the Victorian election.
    Two of the biggest wholesalers of the national broadband network are not delivering NBN Co’s new cheaper bundles in full to retailers, a failure that has contributed to the collapse of at least one NBN reseller and predictions that more will follow.
    The Washington Post says that US Chief Justice John Roberts has issued an extraordinary statement in response to Trump’s criticism of federal judges.
    Orders to US factories for big-ticket manufactured goods fell by the largest amount in 15 months with a key category that tracks business investment showing weakness for the third consecutive month. Trump will probably blame the Democrats for this.
    Tony Featherstone wonders if Australia’s largest cities at risk of being swamped by international tourists. He looks to overseas experience to make his point.
    Interested? I’m not!
    It’s an easy choice for today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    At the royal commission with David Rowe.

    Mark David compares Morrison to Trump.

    And he drops in on the modern Liberal Party.

    Paul Zanetti with Morrison and immigration.

    Jon Kudelka and the fun-loving Turnbulls.
    A cracker from David Pope as he gives us Trump the Turkey.$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/dc9453a0a3ce7b84adde846532eb8955f8de7d6b
    More very good ones in here.

  31. I recall many years ago talking to an elderly neighbour, a cat lover. The subject of cats came up. She told me how, in spite of being very well looked after, her cat would go out hunting and sometimes bring the results of to the front door. “Oh yes, Steve, there is evil in her heart” she said, “her” being the cat.

  32. The primary aim of the battery subsidy is not to benefit those who install the batteries. It is to reduce the peak early evening demand on energy generators. The batteries will enable solar power generated during the day to be used in the evening. This in turn will reduce the demand on existing non renewable generators. $200 million is nothing compared with the cost of building a new generator. Currently in Queensland the market price for power generated at 11.00am is zero. what is needed is a greater capacity for that power to be stored and used later. This plan assists in that need.

  33. Thanks BK.

    And Elizabeth Knight says that the royal commission’s corporate governance gold medal for the category of “refusal to accept responsibility” must be awarded to former Commonwealth Bank chairman, David Turner.

    The incredible arrogance of the banks to rip off their ordinary wage-earning customers, coupled with the unprincipled entitlement factor of their board members has been quite the revelation in the RC.

  34. Thanks BK.
    I can recommend Grog’s article.
    In particular this opening statement
    In the last financial year, new figures from the bureau of statistics have revealed that the richest 20% of households accumulated 47.5% of the total before-tax private income. This figure, which excludes government cash benefits, is the second highest share to go to the top 20% this century:

    To be remembered especially next time the government complain that the wealthiest earners pay most of the income tax.

  35. lizzie

    The electricity supply is unreliable here also. Typically it will be out for a few hours, half a dozen times a year, plus planned outages that last most of the day.

    A 10KWhr battery would this house through most of that. The worst case scenario is the July 2007 storms where electricity was out for 4 days and there was little sunlight for the first 2 days. Under those circumstances a 10KWhr battery would have kept the fridges and TV going, plus a few lights, but you’d have to avoid the kettle, toaster and of course aircon.

  36. Morning all

    During commercial break of nine news last night, there was a Matt Guy announcement.
    Any guesses what his prime ministerial statement and announcement was?

  37. Cud Chewer

    Yes, I forgot to mention day-long planned outages. We have suffered one approx every three weeks throughout winter and spring. I can only hope that whatever was being done has made our supply safer.

  38. Bill Shorten is already proving my hypothesis correct. He will run a Liberal-lite government that will implement MT’s agenda. He has already done so in relation to the TPP and now the NEG. Once elected, more business tax cuts. Still nothing on Social Justice. Plenty for the corporations.

  39. Fascinating read. As Rick Wilson says, today’s Republicans are the party of 55 year old white guys with high school education.

    Among other results, this year’s midterm elections affirmed this much: in Washington, the two parties now speak for dramatically different segments of the American economy.

    Republicans represent the smaller, fading segment, with less-educated, more-homogenous work forces reliant on traditional manufacturing, agriculture and resource extraction. Democrats represent the larger, growing one, fueled by finance, professional services and digital innovation in diverse urban areas.

  40. Fess

    Not quite.


    In a nutshell. More money and investment in staff to deal with the threat that Victorians should not have to put up with.
    No mention that the current Andrews govt has given counterterrorism unit an unlimited budget.
    My connections in counter terrorism tell me time and again, that whatever they ask for, the govt gives.

    No surprise that Matt Guy and the fibs are milking this politically.
    One area that should not be politicised.
    They are pathetic.

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