BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Ipsos and Essential’s 52-48 results have knocked nearly a full point off Labor’s lead in the BludgerTrack aggregate, although that still leaves plenty to spare.

Two much better results for the Coalition this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have knocked 0.8% off Labor’s still commanding two-party lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This converts into three gains on the seat projection, being one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

For those playing particularly close attention, I am not making use here of The West Australian’s local poll by unheralded market research outfit Painted Dog Research, as I have no benchmark for calculating bias adjustments for them. In any case, it was a small sample poll that particularly low primary votes for both major parties. I have, however, included it in the archive of poll results you can find with a bit of digging under the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page.

Bill Shorten maintains a steady upward trend on the leadership ratings, on which I’m still not producing a result for Scott Morrison – this will require a fair bit of tinkering that I won’t have time for until the poll drought over new year. Full results, as always, on the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,091 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 42
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  2. Peter I’d generally have to agree with that.

    It just depends on the cost of batteries at grid scale versus household scale and the extent of leverage the scheme actually generates. Its certainly a politically clever move.

    I figure somewhere between 500MWhr and 800MWhr of storage as a result. So there still needs to be a lot more done in terms of grid connected storage.

  3. Vic:

    I was kinda close!

    Seriously though, conservatives have no policies to offer people other than playing to their fears and insecurities. The sooner the movement either dies from irrelevancy or is reclaimed by actual conservatives with principles, the better.

  5. Eddy Jokovich
    ‏@EddyJokovich

    If Labor’s original FTTP broadband plan was implemented, we’d now be just two years away from completion, with a super fast network, 1000mps.

    Liberal’s FTTN plan is now four years away from completion, more expensive, 20 times slower at 50mps. That’s the Liberal way! #auspol

  6. Cud Chewer
    says:
    Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 8:49 am
    God you are boring, nath
    __________________
    Maybe, but am I wrong? Shorten’s government will be the best friend business has ever had. Wait until he starts to implement some of his best mate’s policies from the IPA.

  7. The Federal government is dysfunctional

    From obliging Trade Debtors to pay suppliers of goods and services in 20 days to accessing superannuation accruals, any form of analysis makes this dysfunctional government an abject mockery

  8. nath

    I have far more reliable sources of information than your posts. Hence boring.

    Besides it really is time you to put up or shut up. Tell us whether you’d preference Labor above Liberal, or the other way around.

  9. Cud Chewer
    says:
    Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 9:09 am
    nath
    I have far more reliable sources of information than your posts. Hence boring.
    Besides it really is time you to put up or shut up. Tell us whether you’d preference Labor above Liberal, or the other way around.
    _____________________________________
    So you’d just go along with whatever the ALP did because they are not the Libs? Just suspend your critical faculties? Just because I am critical of Shorten and the ALP doesn’t mean they wont get my preference ahead of the Libs. But I will not be a mute while they just adopt MT’s policies.

  11. Cud Chewer
    says:
    Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 9:09 am
    nath
    I have far more reliable sources of information than your posts. Hence boring.
    _________________________
    So you have other information that the ALP has not passed the TPP and now support the NEG?

  12. nath

    You’re not boring because you’re critical, you’re boring because you bang on and on about subjects you clearly know nothing about, most of which we know about because they were done to death on PB a very very very long time ago.

  13. Cud Chewer
    says:
    Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 9:13 am
    Put up or shut up nath.
    __________________
    I understand. You are embarrassed. You will be voting for Malcolm Turnbull in a worse suit. Not my fault.

  14. zoomster
    says:
    Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 9:14 am
    nath
    You’re not boring because you’re critical, you’re boring because you bang on and on about subjects you clearly know nothing about, most of which we know about because they were done to death on PB a very very very long time ago.
    ______________________________
    Well considering the ALP has just recently passed the TPP and just recently adopted MT’s NEG, I’d say these issues were pretty current.

  16. Cud Chewer
    says:
    Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 9:16 am
    Who will you preference first, nath? Cat got your tongue?
    ____________
    I would preference the ALP over the Lib’s. Not because I have any confidence that Shorten will do anything for Social Justice. Although, one can hope.

  18. haha
    If Bludgers were trout, nath would have a creel full.
    He presents his fly and bingo!
    Look at it is this way, if nath has hooked you into talking about Labor bad in any way, shape or form, nath has won and you have lost.
    If he has hooked you into talking about what nath truly believes, ditto.

  19. Victoria:

    Big Law — a nexus of power where partners are often plucked for top government posts — has emerged as a fierce, and perhaps unexpected, antagonist to President Trump’s immigration agenda. While pro bono work is nothing new, over the past two years, major law firms have become more vocal and visible in pushing back against the administration’s policies.

    Top firms have a well-earned reputation as cautious defenders of the establishment, and immigration is generally considered a safe area for pro bono work because it rarely conflicts with corporate clients. Still, both supporters and critics of the president’s agenda have noticed that large firms have been behind several of the biggest court battles.

    “What’s different here is that the firms are on a wholesale basis, and dramatically, challenging the behavior of the White House,” said Stephen Gillers, a law professor at New York University and an expert in legal ethics.

    Hogan Lovells, which has more than 2,500 lawyers and revenues that topped $2 billion last year, challenged the travel ban and is one of several firms opposing the administration’s plan to cut federal funding to so-called sanctuary cities.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/21/nyregion/president-trump-immigration-law-firms.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    Good to see there are lawyers around who still care about justice. There are still hundreds if not thousands of parents who were deported under Trump’s policies without their children who are still in the US.

  21. Looks like my post disappeared.

    I’ll say it again.

    Liberal policies like NEG AND MTM FRAUDBAND, are just money making Ponzi schemes.

    The sooner people recognise it the better our country will be!

  22. Boerwar
    Look at it is this way, if nath has hooked you into talking about Labor bad in any way, shape or form, nath has won and you have lost.
    If he has hooked you into talking about what nath truly believes, ditto.
    ________________________________
    Yes. Don’t talk about anything that might be critical of Labor. That is Laborbad.

    Always talk Laborgood. No matter what they do, it is always good. TPP was once bad, now is good. NEG was once bad, now is good. To be critical of any aspect of Labor is Laborbad.

    Orwell would be amused.

  24. Boerwar @ #68 Thursday, November 22nd, 2018 – 9:23 am

    haha
    If Bludgers were trout, nath would have a creel full.
    He presents his fly and bingo!
    Look at it is this way, if nath has hooked you into talking about Labor bad in any way, shape or form, nath has won and you have lost.
    If he has hooked you into talking about what nath truly believes, ditto.

    So many feeding the trolls on here. They must stay up all night fixing the internet.

  27. C@tmomma @ #6 Thursday, November 22nd, 2018 – 6:55 am

    Looks like P1 may at last be pleased with Labor’s new Energy policy. Well, at least a little bit:

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will pledge direct financial support for new projects to offer reliable electricity supply, leaving the door open to gas-fired power but ruling out any help for coal.

    But also:

    Mr Shorten will outline the plan on Thursday alongside a $200 million policy to subsidise the installation of batteries in 100,000 homes so more Australians can store electricity from their solar panels, improving reliability.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bill-shorten-sets-new-course-on-climate-boosting-renewables-and-subsidising-batteries-for-100-000-homes-20181121-p50hgz.html

    I’m waiting till I can actually read the policy. I am beginning to think your original claim of Labor adopting the NEG was just a ploy to gain some coverage in the MSM. Otherwise, Labor’s policy launch might well vanish without trace. Ok, that’s fair enough … as a publicity ploy.

    Of course, actually adopting the NEG so would be a triumph of politics over policy, and I give the ALP more credit than that. The NEG was cobbled-together, complex, opaque, and emissions reduction was not its main purpose. There are much better options.

    There is no need for the ALP to adopt second-rate policy in this area just for political advantage – they are already going to win the next election (and quite handsomely if they were to put up a sensible population policy) and the public is already on side with sensible action on global warming.

  29. The rebate wont help lower income families, or high income families because of the cap. However, it will help those in the high-middle to purchase solar-batteries and this in turn will probably drive the economies of scale needed to get battery prices down to levels that make them a far more attractive proposition that they are presently (I think the storage needed to about double for half ther present cost of a Tesla Wall). I’m hoping that will happen by the end of 2020 when I am scheduled to finish my present home renovation program. I’ve put on solar panels at a cost of under $4,000 and this has dropped my electricity bill by about 60% to about $800 pa even though I’ve recently installed an inground pool. However most of our heating is gas and our annual gas bill is just under $1K. The plan is to have reverse cycle air conditioning to power all our heating and cooling needs and get our combined energy bill down to about $800 pa.

    Going forward, I suspect that the best hope that lower income families have of capitalising on the solar-battery revolution is through community based systems that connect a street/suburban block to a local solar-battery system. In passing the TV this morning as I readied for work I heard someone on ABC Breakfast making the point that such systems hold the best hope for local communities rather than simply relying on individual owner-occupiers. However, I’m guessing there would be a whole raft of regulatory, administrative systems and levels of bureaucratic hurdles to overcome to implement such schemes.

  33. Boerwar
    says:
    Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 9:23 am
    haha
    If Bludgers were trout, nath would have a creel full.
    He presents his fly and bingo!
    Look at it is this way, if nath has hooked you into talking about Labor bad in any way, shape or form, nath has won and you have lost.
    If he has hooked you into talking about what nath truly believes, ditto.
    _____________________________________
    It’s so amusing how Boerwar thinks he is so superior to others because he addresses me in the third person. Anyone addressing me in the first person is being hoodwinked by a troll. Boerwar uses the cunning third person trick while mentioning me and laughs at the others.

  34. https://www.michaelwest.com.au/revolving-doors-australias-fossil-fuel-networks/

    The “Revolving Doors” between politics and big business are corroding democracy in Australia. Secret deals, mates’ deals and the promise of riches after politics all undermine democracy and the power of ordinary citizens.

    Ex-politicians participating in the revolving door:

    Labor – Ferguson, Gray, Combet, Emerson

    Coalition – Macfarlane, Anderson, Vaile, Downer

  41. The test for Labor is this: will they gain office promising 45%?
    Then, if in office, how hard would they go to get their 45%?
    They should know that they are totally friendless.
    Because there is a world of pain in that 45% going into the elections and the short term political racketeers will go more or less as follows:

    The Greens will whinge and wedge like fuck.
    The Coal FUDsters will go full bore and full funding.
    The purists will wail not good enough because nothing ever is.
    The economists will pose and do BAU- and if ever there was a profession responsible for fucking up the global climate, it is the economists for their maniacal adherence to the notion of externalities.
    The Sky After Dark crew will have on-screen orgasms… OK, OK, they will writhe and moan like they have orgasms.
    The MMTears will say that the solution is dreadfully simple and totally pain free – just print enough money and Bob’s Your Uncle.
    Morrison and Frydenberg will lie thought their pentecostal teeth.
    And so on and so forth.

    The hill is high and steep and winding and long.
    But if there is any single party in Australia that is going to bite the (to-date) Sisyphian global warming bullet, it is Labor.
    They just bet their political house on it.

  44. Well, if Labor’s NEG is not Turnbull’s NEG, no matter.

    The Coalition took the brand names of Labor’s popular Gonski, NDIS and NBN, completely changed them, but then claimed they were doing them better. The public was predictably hoodwinked (and still are, to some extent).

    So good job Labor! You’re finally learning!

  45. BB

    Excellent point.

    But I can’t recall the Coalition promising to turn our relationships with Malaysia, Indonesia and the domestic islamic community into a Middle East-style Muslim v Jew.

  47. Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    37m37 minutes ago
    After completion of a recount in Georgia’s 7th congressional district, Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux today conceded the race to Republican @RepRobWoodall.

    Woodall (R) – 140,443 – 50.1%
    Bourdeaux (D) – 140,010 – 49.9%
    Final margin: 433 votes

    2 remaining undecided House races.

    There have been some very close results this year which makes you wonder whether the presidential election in two year’s time when more people traditionally vote, could tip to the Democrats.

  48. George Monbiot who takes AGW seriously and bases his views on the scientific evidence:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/14/earth-death-spiral-radical-action-climate-breakdown

    Climate breakdown could be rapid and unpredictable. We can no longer tinker around the edges and hope minor changes will avert collapse
    :::
    Those to whom we look for solutions trundle on as if nothing has changed. As if the accumulating evidence has no purchase on their minds. Decades of institutional failure ensures that only “unrealistic” proposals – the repurposing of economic life, with immediate effect – now have a realistic chance of stopping the planetary death spiral. And only those who stand outside the failed institutions can lead this effort.

    Two tasks need to be performed simultaneously: throwing ourselves at the possibility of averting collapse, as Extinction Rebellion is doing, slight though this possibility may appear; and preparing ourselves for the likely failure of these efforts, terrifying as this prospect is. Both tasks require a complete revision of our relationship with the living planet.

    Because we cannot save ourselves without contesting oligarchic control, the fight for democracy and justice and the fight against environmental breakdown are one and the same. Do not allow those who have caused this crisis to define the limits of political action. Do not allow those whose magical thinking got us into this mess to tell us what can and cannot be done.

    Grassroots movements such as Extinction Rebellion will rise up.

  50. I was not sure whether to go for Trump or Sanders.
    So, on balance, I chose Sanders.
    It was nearly a bull’s eye.
    I was just a tad to the left of him.
    Sanders IS a bit of a wuss, ideologically speaking.

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