BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Ipsos and Essential’s 52-48 results have knocked nearly a full point off Labor’s lead in the BludgerTrack aggregate, although that still leaves plenty to spare.

Two much better results for the Coalition this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have knocked 0.8% off Labor’s still commanding two-party lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This converts into three gains on the seat projection, being one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

For those playing particularly close attention, I am not making use here of The West Australian’s local poll by unheralded market research outfit Painted Dog Research, as I have no benchmark for calculating bias adjustments for them. In any case, it was a small sample poll that particularly low primary votes for both major parties. I have, however, included it in the archive of poll results you can find with a bit of digging under the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page.

Bill Shorten maintains a steady upward trend on the leadership ratings, on which I’m still not producing a result for Scott Morrison – this will require a fair bit of tinkering that I won’t have time for until the poll drought over new year. Full results, as always, on the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,091 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  2. Vic
    Trump in remarkable public argument with the Chief Justice Roberts. He knows no boundary. He has attacked every institution, group, individual he disagrees with.
    Roberts has fired back. Never before.
    Extraordinary event in US history. Unprecedented. How long before he attacks Abe Lincoln?
    Come on Mr Mueller, get this done now.

  3. Boerwar
    says:
    Sanders IS a bit of a wuss, ideologically speaking.
    __________________________
    Shorten however is not a wuss. Because to say that equals Laborbad.

  4. “Roberts has fired back. Never before.”

    Robert’s real concern isn’t Trump it is that every decision they are about to make changing the constitution and protecting Trump from the application of State or Federal law will be challenged by the left and the Court will become a laughing stock (spoiler: it already is)

  5. This mornings RC hearing seems to be saying..
    Not only do banks charge for not providing advice they also don’t provide any advice when they do provide advice!

  6. Here is the problem with the ABC news. Especially on its website (which is more trite than Fairfax these days).

    Headline: Bill Shorten to adopt Malcolm Turnbull’s energy policy, pledges to throw billions at renewables

    Article: Australian households will be offered federal rebates to install solar storage batteries under a federal Labor energy policy that will also direct billions of taxpayer dollars at solar, wind and hydro projects.

    Notice how the article uses the neutral word ‘direct’ (as in allocate) while the headline uses the right-wing meme applied to Labor of ‘throw’ (as in wasteful desperation).

    And then you have this very sober analysis by Malcolm Farr on a Murdoch web site:

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/conservation/labor-outlines-its-energy-policy-batteries-to-subsidise-solar-power-storage-for-households/news-story/f6b3b040388d858c8ab12dedbecb6137

  9. Good Morning

    I started to read some of the posts since I left.

    Cat.

    We are on the same page about socialism. I proudly use the word socialism because I don’t see saying you are socialist means you are a communist. Just as saying you are a capitalist means you are a nazi. To take two of the extremes.

    On the immigration debate.

    We need to to have the debate. However we can’t have it now because the Liberals are using it as a dog whistle to excuse for not investing in infrastructure now those birds are coming home to roost.

    Its also noteworthy to remember that Sydney congestion is that of international students. (If we are going to blame a particular group). If we want to reduce congestion due to people numbers lets start by cutting international students and listen to the howls of outrage from our education sector.

    Zoid and Observer.

    BB was right about the debate. You were right about the timing of the debate and the aims of the Liberals to dogwhistle. However that does not mean BB or anyone else trying to have a reasonable debate is being racist or is uneducated.

  12. Well The RC proposition to Westpac is that “most Australians Don’t need to advice proffered by the banks”. So the truth is out, the Banks are maufacturing a demand that isn’t there so they can charge fees..

  15. The batteries program will be means-tested.
    It will also do something for renters but just what that might be is not clear to me.
    It is clear that this is to be the first tranche, not the be-all and end-all.

    Me? I would prefer large-scale solutions but if this is one way to get modern storage through the political gates of hell, so be it.

  16. C@t

    Since you say blogs are not “harmless fluff”, then perhaps you will now strive to remedy your abusive ways which are more frequent than any other blogger.

    I note you still propagate the lie that disagreeing with a woman is misogynistic. Your glasses are anything but rose coloured.

  18. Good to see Eastman found not guilty

    The AFP screwed up their prosecution. If Eastman had been guilty they just did not have the evidence to convict. Thats the long and short of it no matter how upset the AFP gets about the result.

  19. Another fuckup that won’t get media attention:

    Nick Ross
    ‏Verified account @NickRossTech
    25m25 minutes ago

    Hi @myGovau my MyGov is showing somebody else’s Super. I called MyGov support who said they can’t help and I should call the ATO. I’ve gone through all the options and they’re all automated and not relevant. What do now?

  20. Trump will burn down the place in order to garner some advantage.
    He will find soon enough that it won’t work.

    _____________________________

    He’s already started with California

  21. I would prefer a return to a carbon price but accept Labor is smart to go with the NEG to neutralise the LNP.

    I like the push on renewables and the batteries subsidies. Much more realistic a solution than any the LNP have come up with.

    I assume after a while in opposition the LNP will either become a minority party or accept that the era of coal is over. 🙂

  22. Boerwar:

    ‘Then the suffering rate payers of the ACT are about to suffer some more pain.’

    More than likely, but that’s the price of justice.

    It’ll be interesting to see if police reopen their investigation.

  24. Frednk, ‘Batteries and grid connection makes no economical sense. Your sill paying the connection fee; which is basically a charge to maintain the thing, and you add the local system service costs. The only benefit is the different between rates which will never cover the capital cost.’

    I thought the connection fee was to connect the residence/business to the grid.

    Their is a daily charge for residential consumers of something like a dollar a day. I thought that more or less paid for the reader and associated maintenance costs of meter.

    The power bill (in residential situations at least) comprises the maintenance of poles and wires getting the electricity to your house, plus the cost of electricity, plus the retailers’ profit.

    If you are already connected to the grid and go solar, that connection cost is already paid for.

    It means you stay connected but produce the majority of power through your solar cells. The consequence is the retailer misses out the majority of their profit (albeit doing the same work or more if you export some electricity to the grid) and the distributors will be missing out on their income. Yet still have the poles and wires going past your place.

    The distributors will have to charge more to the remaining customers to cover this shortfall.

    I can see a time, when their will be a grid charge paid for by every residence to have the grid go past their place, even if you don’t tap into it (ie you are 100% solar).

  26. Robert Ball
    says:
    Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 10:35 am
    How about everyone ignores the persistent troll?
    It isn’t hard, you know. LOL!!
    ___________________
    It isn’t hard at all. I find it easy to ignore ‘Secret Squirrel’ fantasists who pretend they have access to vast amounts of inside information.

  27. Am going to have to look into the ALP power plans announced today. Have to say that what i am hearing at the moment…its a pretty good plan to be going into an election with.

    Bit nasty of them though. 🙁 They are going to an election with (apparently) a sound and very significant policy on Energy. They know that the RWFW’s in the Libs will go at least somewhat feral in opposing it and so they have good policy that is also a pretty serious wedgie for ScoMo simply because of what it is and the Liberal kaos around energy policy.

    Let the Blood run Free in the Lib/Nat party room i reckon. 🙂

    Sweet. !! 🙂

  29. Thank you BK for your link to the Kouk. https://thekouk.com/item/650-the-rba-rolls-the-dice-on-house-prices.html

    To any money people on this blog, the article touches on something that has been bothering me for a while. So I read it. But I am none wiser for it. I’m hoping someone can explain what I’m missing, or point me at something written to my level of ignorance.

    This quote from the article is at the core of my problem.

    …the loss of household wealth will impact household spending. The RBA itself and a bevy of global academic research show a link between changes in household wealth and growth in household spending.

    I would like to know why this is so. I wish to learn the cause, not merely to know of the correlation.

    This is my thinking to date.

    In my world my ability to service my debts limits my spending. That is, my income limits my spending, not the price I could get if I sold my house. My house doesn’t earn me income.

    For instance, if house prices are the measure of household wealth then that wealth is only realised if I sell my house. I still need a place to live, which in a ‘falling market’ may cost me less than I got when I sold. In a ‘falling market’ continually selling and then buying cheaper is the only mechanism I can think of to having more money to spend. It would seem that falling house prices would encourage my household spending, not the reverse.

    Looking at the converse, what happens if house prices go up? Say we’re talking about a 5% increase in house prices compared with last year. Why would that encourage me to spend more on my household? I would be stupid to sell and be faced with a higher cost to buy a place to live. If I am servicing my debts and saving a little, why save less if it will cost me more to buy another house? Rising house prices would make me spend less on my household, since if I needed to move house I would need more savings.

    So, overall, if people who are not me feel more financially secure in a ‘rising market’ and are therefore willing to take risks with their savings, and behave opposite to me too in a ‘falling market’, then I will argue falling house prices are actually a good thing as it curbs their risk taking.

    What am I missing? Serious question.

  34. Some more in the occasional series of Government by Mr Bean:

    58. Borroloola Second Hand Indigenous Housing Backflip Cockup.
    59. Morrison Silent on Pentecostal Child Sex Abuse Cockup.
    60. O’Dwyer’s Plan to Impoverish Abused Women in Retirement Cockup.
    61. My Gov Someone Else’s Super Cockup.

  35. LR

    You are missing the whole real estate as an investment property not a house thing.

    All those stories of people racking up debt to have multiple houses to get income from. Some of that thought the capital gain of selling the house. Thus all those home improvement reality shows. Others from being landlords of multiple dwellings.

    For those that just buy a home on a mortgage you are correct and it makes no sense. You just pay off the mortgage and the amount you pay is a cost and only the reduction of that payment will help your income increase. Not the price of the property when you sell.

  37. BB. @9.57am

    Spot on!

    Your Gonski, NDIS, and NBN examples are very pertinent.

    Labor can do whatever they like using the title NEG. Typical voter won’t know the difference. And once it’s publicised as the scheme Turnbull and Frydenberg wanted but were frightened off by the Coalition RWNJs, that will please swing voters with coalition tendencies and push them towards Labor.

    I’m looking forward to a market based scheme …… an ETS called NEG.

  38. zoid

    Fraudband is being installed in our streets today

    _______________________________________

    I signed up a few weeks ago with Optus on their NBN50 plan. I’ve never gotten above 20mbps on any speed test at any time. Trying to sort it out now. Not happy. Upside is that it is a little cheaper than my old ADSL plan.

  39. Robert Ball

    Out of curiosity who were you talking about. I understand Nath’s reaction having seen him being called a troll many times for disagreeing with the Labor is everything and anyone disagreeing is a troll.

    Nath is provocative for sure. Troll nah.

    So who is your definition of a troll and is it someone disagreeing with Labor that makes them a troll?

  40. PeeBee
    You raise some interesting and important public policy issues.
    One of the outcomes of decoupling water rights from land parcels was ‘pepperpotting’.
    What this means is that, in some irrigation districts, irrigation water distribution channels have far fewer live customers than they used to.
    But the management and maintenance costs are more or less the same.

  43. guytaur,

    I should have said that I understand that the skimmers (realtors, banks, etc.) have less to spend in a falling market. But the article is about household spending. My spending. The only way it makes sense is if it is meant to mislead me, either deliberately or otherwise. I am encouraged to think that a falling market is a bad thing.

  44. Late Riser

    What am I missing? Serious question.
    ______________________________

    Wealth is a ‘feeling’ thing rather than a rational thing. Your logic is correct for most people, but people feel well off when their wealth (whether convertible or not) is up and feel concerned when it is down. If people feel their wealth is down they will tend to cut back spending and economise. There is a rough logic to it, but the reality is that it is basically how you feel.

  45. CNN analyst warns Trump’s starting a fight with John Roberts to deflect from Ivanka’s email scandal

    President Donald Trump lashed out at Chief Justice John Roberts during his holiday at Mar-a-Lago, but one CNN analyst speculated there was a motivation behind the recent attack that has nothing to do with the law or the courts.

    “Here’s a president who, yesterday, refused to criticize a Saudi crown prince for brutal murder but today is laying into a Supreme Court justice,” began CNN’s Jim Sciutto. “The chief Supreme Court justice appointed by a Republican. Why?”

    “To ensure that that’s not what we talk about,” Doug Heye answered simply.

    He argued that there is a great deal of bad news for the White House right now, and the last thing the president wants to talk about are the stacking scandals and plummeting stock market.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/cnn-analyst-warns-trumps-starting-fight-john-roberts-deflect-ivankas-email-scandal/

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    Only a fool would pick a fight with the guy that will oversee his impeachment.

  47. LR

    I agree with your summary. I would only add that falling house prices means renters will not have rent increases as housing becomes cheaper.

    I am assuming an oversupply not an undersupply of housing.
    Thus people have been shout out of areas due to high rents.

  48. PeeBee @ #123 Thursday, November 22nd, 2018 – 9:44 am

    The consequence is the retailer misses out the majority of their profit (albeit doing the same work or more if you export some electricity to the grid)

    I suppose reading two numbers off a meter once every 90 days is technically twice as much work as reading one number. But still. Pfft. 🙂

    and the distributors will be missing out on their income. Yet still have the poles and wires going past your place.

    Indeed, they’re providing such a costly and complicated and hard to maintain service by having bits of wood and copper out in front of everyone’s house. 🙄

    The distributors will have to charge more to the remaining customers to cover this shortfall.

    The distributors sound like rip-off artists, to me.

    I can see a time, when their will be a grid charge paid for by every residence to have the grid go past their place, even if you don’t tap into it (ie you are 100% solar).

    Well, if Australians keep buying into the nonsense that it’s ungodly expensive on an ongoing basis to have some fixed copper wires (poles are 100% optional) running past a house, then sure.

    But I’d hope at some point they’ll realize that while the initial rollout of the copper wires may be costly (or not really, if taken on a per-premises-passed basis in areas with a reasonable density of residences), the ongoing maintenance costs are practically nil.

  49. Late Riser,

    You are an intelligent person who has analysed the situation in a thoughtful and considered manner. And that’s the problem. You haven’t allowed for the fact that most home owners are idiots.

  50. Robert Ball
    says:
    Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 11:05 am
    I cannot be held responsible if he identifies himself, now can I? ROFL!!
    I do note how nasty he got though, sad really. LOL!!
    _________________________
    You’ve called me a troll before. And if you think Secret Squirrel is nasty, get out of the house sometime! I thought it was funny, and very appropriate to your ‘secret agent’ persona you peddle on here.

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