BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Ipsos and Essential’s 52-48 results have knocked nearly a full point off Labor’s lead in the BludgerTrack aggregate, although that still leaves plenty to spare.

Two much better results for the Coalition this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have knocked 0.8% off Labor’s still commanding two-party lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This converts into three gains on the seat projection, being one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

For those playing particularly close attention, I am not making use here of The West Australian’s local poll by unheralded market research outfit Painted Dog Research, as I have no benchmark for calculating bias adjustments for them. In any case, it was a small sample poll that particularly low primary votes for both major parties. I have, however, included it in the archive of poll results you can find with a bit of digging under the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page.

Bill Shorten maintains a steady upward trend on the leadership ratings, on which I’m still not producing a result for Scott Morrison – this will require a fair bit of tinkering that I won’t have time for until the poll drought over new year. Full results, as always, on the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,091 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. Morning all.

    So it seems like Liberal voters in the Vic election voted earlier, hence the postals and pre-polls coming in favour them. It was expected, as last night’s commentary by the MPs on the ABC panel indicated.

  2. poroti @ #1599 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 8:42 am

    The other thing about the Zanetti tantrum is the insult to the voters of Victoria. You are all a bunch of peasants and obviously stupid to support such policies.

    Don’t worry, poroti, Zanetti and his ilk at Murdoch and S.A.D. can keep going down that path forever as far as I’m concerned. It’s a political dead end. 🙂

  3. Insiders ABCVerified account@InsidersABC
    51m51 minutes ago
    Coming up at 9am. @theheraldsun’s @annikasmethurst, @australian’s Niki Savva and @smh’s David Crowe join @barriecassidy. Victorian Premier @DanielAndrewsMP and Shadow Minister for Employment @BOConnorMP are live in the studio. @mpbowers talks pictures with @AmyRemeikis #Insiders

  4. Poroti

    Murdoch was behind the push for Dutton. It was his Sky after Dark that Turnbull cited about the leadership coup along with Jones.

    Fairfax at least can get rid of Jones. Murdoch’s stable can’t they are owned by the guys that are steeped in Trumps America and think going to the right for the “base” is going to win them elections.

    This is why yet another election rejecting that is such a disaster for Murdoch. Labor can act on regulating the media this time in sensible ways. voters are rejecting that message big time.

  5. The Zanetti Cartoon is hilarious.
    It is a subtle comment on the Coalition, not Labor.
    It depicts why the Coalition got a thrashing: stupidity, lies and FUD.

  10. Surely the big takeaway from last is that voters turned out to be more scared of the Liberal party than they were of African gangs and muslims.

  11. And what is Frydenberg banging on about? When did Shorten do o “victory lap” in 2016? In any case, Bill Shorten wasn’t a candidate in the Victorian election and didn’t play a big role from what I can see.

  12. Maker Mayek
    ‏@MakMayek
    13h13 hours ago

    For those of us who were pushed to the periphery by the LNP’s nasty campaign,tonight’s election result means much more than an election won & a government re-elected. It’s a restoration of faith in humanity. It feels like a welcoming to the country. Absolutely ecstatic #VicVotes

  13. Steve

    I disagree. Mr Shorten announced his environment policy in the last week. That along with the rejection of the injecting centre for addicts made rejection of facts resonate with voters. LNP seen to be ideological and extreme. Not evidence based policy by voters.

    As Confessions points out. The Liberals became more scary than African Gangs.

  14. Fess

    Thanks for the Insiders lineup. To me the interesting bit is that there is a common feature with last night’s Liberal commenters: not a single senior Liberal leader, state or federal, in sight. Where is Kroger, Guy, ScumMo, Fryedthe party, Dutton, Abbott, Cash, Bishop, Corman or Joyce? The RWNJs love to lob the grenades into public debate to upset others, but when the electoral backlash comes, they run and hide. Like most bullys, they are cowards.

    On the plus side, I thought the ABC panel compares last night were both very fair. They asked the Liberals (notably Hume) hard questions about the result and when Hume tried to stall or dissemble, but were courteous to Pesutto when he behaved graciously in defeat. It shows that an unmuzzled ABC can still do good in political debate.

  15. S777
    Shorten’s ‘victory lap’ is Frydenberg doing Canberra Bubble Talk.
    After the last election Shorten toured the nation thanking people.
    Frydenberg’s effort last night would have, IMO, solidified the views of those who switched to Labor.
    It was aggressive and defensive. It avoided the truth. And it blame-shifted.

  16. Steve777 @ #1611 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 8:53 am

    And what is Frydenberg banging on about? When did Shorten do o “victory lap” in 2016? In any case, Bill Shorten wasn’t a candidate in the Victorian election and didn’t play a big role from what I can see.

    That ‘victory lap’ furphy is made up from the minds of Crosby/Textor no doubt. The Fiberals think it will turn people off Bill Shorten. It’s not working guys!

  19. Credit to Matthew Guy for his generous concession speech which lacked the rancour so blatantly displayed by Frydenberg.
    Will be interesting to see the response from Morrisson et al.

  23. Cat
    (earlier) “* Labor are embracing Progressive Taxation, IR, Social Welfare, Public Services and Environment policies, which Suburban and Regional voters like but not as extreme as The Greens’.”

    Cat I think you gave a pretty good summary before of the Victorian situation in response to my comment about the voting shift. I agree with your view that when Labor focuses on basic service delivery and cost of living as Andrews has done, it stands strong.

    On two specific policy fronts of interest to me, I am now optimistic that Labor can win votes with a progressive policy stance.

    On climate change, almost every independent commentator agrees that investment in renewables, not coal, can lower power prices. That is a good message Labor can sell in acting on climate change, while focusing efforts on compensating workers, not mine owners, and helping them retrain and transition to new jobs in places like La Trobe, Hunter and Bowen basin. Labor can point out that only it, not the Liberals, will help the workers survive the shift.

    The second one is in urban transport infrastructure and the road vs rail debate. There should not be a debate technically; when cities get to the size all of our capitals are now, building more roads gets futile, and it is more efficient to expand the reach and capacity of rail systems. In this regard Labor surely picked up votes with its Melbourne rail project delivery and future rail ring promise. The Liberals promised back to the future with the EW Link project and did not pick up a single vote from it as far as I can see. This is similar to the pattern at the last ACT election. Federal Labor should look to establishing a national rail program. With commonality in system design, there is probably enough scale of work to justify local rain manufacturing. For example, if Hobart proceeds with a light rail system, why not run extra Melbourne E class trams on them?

  24. Fess
    “Did you catch the verbal fisticuffs on live TV between Kennett and Kroger last night?”

    No I missed it. I saw up till 7.30 SA time then had to go out. By the time I got back in it was all over.

  31. Fess

    Thanks. Looking forward to it 🙂

    Kroger’s attitude is why the Liberals will find it so hard to reform themselves. We shoudl not underestimate pure greed and self interest as motives for the Liberals. With a majority of RWNJs in federal party and parliamentary positions, a whole lot of people have to give up their jobs for the federal party to change. And most of those individuals do not have significant private careers to fall back on outside of politics. The gravy train is almost over for some of them. You can bet ScumMo will be appointing a lot of Liberal politicians as ambassadors and tribunal members in the next six months.

  32. More from Roman Quaedvlieg.
    “I’m flipping a coin. Heads: the Fed Libs will have a damascene moment tonight and radically change policy course to behave like a responsive & responsible govt; Tails: they will ignore Victoria as a State-based loss & double down on their abjectly fragmented & divisive approach. “

  33. And from Tony Windsor – “This is possibly the most important message of the Vic election …the people are mature enough to see through shit when it gets sprayed on them .”

  35. nath @ #1057 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 1:26 pm

    Yes it points to the abandonment of the inner city by the Libs. Which will be all Green after this election I am sure. It’s just further indication that the inner city is now Greens territory and that we are eating the ALP alive, chomp chomp.

    Looks like the greens forgot to slip their false teeth in…

  36. The message of voters is very clear to me.

    Essential polling has told us. The Marriage Survey has told us. The By Elections Federal and State have told us.

    Labor has picked the right issue from the start. Inequality is what the voters are rejecting. Culture war or economic war. Its the same issue. People want a fair Australia.

  37. After the last Federal election Di Natale came out and dudded Greens voters.
    He promised them that they were making progress towards a Greens Government.
    The wait time for that moved from some time next century to infinity.

  38. BK @ #1632 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 5:22 am

    More form Roman Quaedvlieg.
    “I’m flipping a coin. Heads: the Fed Libs will have a damascene moment tonight and radically change policy course to behave like a responsive & responsible govt; Tails: they will ignore Victoria as a State-based loss & double down on their abjectly fragmented & divisive approach. “

    I don’t think it’s a 50-50 proposition.

    The overwhelming favourite must be option 2. 🙂

  39. @CommissionerKate tweets

    Every Australian now knows that as long as the Dutton’s an MP, he could become PM at any moment – literally – and are voting accordingly.

    The Dudster’s like a voter repellant for the LNP.
    #lol
    #insiders

  48. Bishop Talbert Swan
    ‏Verified account @TalbertSwan
    24h24 hours ago

    Contaminated Romain lettuce killed 4 people. They pulled it from the shelves of grocery stores across America.

    There have been 307 mass shootings so far this year. You can still buy a gun online or at your neighborhood Walmart.

    Let that sink in.

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