BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Ipsos and Essential’s 52-48 results have knocked nearly a full point off Labor’s lead in the BludgerTrack aggregate, although that still leaves plenty to spare.

Two much better results for the Coalition this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have knocked 0.8% off Labor’s still commanding two-party lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This converts into three gains on the seat projection, being one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

For those playing particularly close attention, I am not making use here of The West Australian’s local poll by unheralded market research outfit Painted Dog Research, as I have no benchmark for calculating bias adjustments for them. In any case, it was a small sample poll that particularly low primary votes for both major parties. I have, however, included it in the archive of poll results you can find with a bit of digging under the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page.

Bill Shorten maintains a steady upward trend on the leadership ratings, on which I’m still not producing a result for Scott Morrison – this will require a fair bit of tinkering that I won’t have time for until the poll drought over new year. Full results, as always, on the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,091 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. Greensborough Growler @ #1526 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 1:09 pm

    In breaking news, Liberal Senator Jim Molan has been placed 4th on the Liberal senate ticket in NSW. They’ve put a woman as their lead candidate. Clear;y, the message the electorate has been sending regarding Turnbull’s sacking is starting to break through.

    https://twitter.com/kloussikian/status/1066188825863417856

    Colour me absolutely stunned at this! And in NSW as well.

  2. Yes, phoenix, it’s going to be great to witness the unravelling of the orange dotard. I understand the House Democrats have been planning his demise for some time.

    Also interesting is that in the early hours of November, 6 it appeared that the Dems were in a spot of bother, but that dissipated as the count progressed. I understand that nearly 9 million more Americans voted for the Dems in the House – a crushing personal blow to Trump, and a clear message that a majority want a fetter on his abuse of power.

  3. RR

    Wunderlich was the competition for James Hardie although until about 1970 they split up the market for supply of asbestos cement products.

    At some point Wunderlich was acquired by CSR which then sold the asbestos cement business to James Hardie in 1977.

  6. Diogenes

    As you know pathology is the gold standard for the diagnosis of mesothelioma and Henderson was the go to person for this work.

    A little later on he then became the go to person on the causal link between exposure and the disease.

  7. Mavis Smith @ #1502 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 4:44 pm

    Yes, phoenix, it’s going to be great to witness the unravelling of the orange dotard. I understand the House Democrats have been planning his demise for some time.

    Also interesting is that in the early hours of November, 6 it appeared that the Dems were in a spot of bother, but that dissipated as the count progressed. I understand that nearly 9 million more Americans voted for the Dems in the House – a crushing personal blow to Trump, and a clear message that a majority want a fetter on his abuse of power.

    Can’t wait until 2020 for the Mango Mussolini to get his just desserts. Revenge is a dish best served cold and I think the American electorate are waiting to serve it up.

  8. Good afternoon all,

    Re the liberal senate ticket in NSW.

    I would not be too surprised if the ranking of Moylan at four had more to do with factional matters than NSW going all kum bia with a new found zeal to promote more women into Parliament.

    The response of Abbott, Kelly and co to this will be interesting.

  10. Yes here’s hoping the Democrats can take the WH and the Senate in 2020. It will what the country would need to free itself of the shackles of the Trump era and the damage he and Republicans have wrought so far.

  11. Mavis Smith says: Saturday, November 24, 2018 at 4:44 pm

    Yes, phoenix, it’s going to be great to witness the unravelling of the orange dotard. I understand the House Democrats have been planning his demise for some time.

    ********************************************************

    Mavis – for all that Trump might be as a despicable human being – as WaPo Max Boot said – he may/may not be the worst ever President but he is surely the worst ever person to be President – then to me what makes it worse is the spineless cowardly GOP members who continue to support him and his deplorable madness and decisions that are destroying America on a daily basis – both domestically and internationally – they could do something but put their own political survival above their country ……..

  12. ausdavo @ #1504 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 3:45 pm

    A huge new development in electricity storage.

    Will lithium batteries become old school ?

    http://www.unitedsunsystems.com/?fbclid=IwAR0IuYPZmLRYLqDqr2nHmjK0adjo7TzE2oEB-i-xS_4Z3DXo74-Ah8IVw3I

    The link to Sweden is interesting.
    https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-develop-liquid-that-sucks-up-sun-s-energy

    The fluid is actually a molecule in liquid form that scientists from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden have been working on improving for over a year.

    This molecule is composed of carbon, hydrogen and nitrogen, and when it is hit by sunlight, it does something unusual: the bonds between its atoms are rearranged and it turns into an energised new version of itself, called an isomer.

    Like prey caught in a trap, energy from the sun is thus captured between the isomer’s strong chemical bonds, and it stays there even when the molecule cools down to room temperature.

    When the energy is needed – say at nighttime, or during winter – the fluid is simply drawn through a catalyst that returns the molecule to its original form, releasing energy in the form of heat.

    This description seems to match your link. If it is the same technology there is still a problem in that released temperatures are still low, but they’re working on it.

  13. C@tmomma:

    [‘Can’t wait until 2020 for the Mango Mussolini to get his just desserts. Revenge is a dish best served cold and I think the American electorate are waiting to serve it up.’]

    I do trust that the Dems put up a capable candidate in 2020. I know you like Beto O’Rourke, who nearly pulled it off against Cruz in Texas. I’ve had a look at some of his speeches and he does appear to have the goods.

  15. Itza
    Absolutely not what the Master ordered!
    Thanks for the reviews I only saw the Age which seemed to miss the perverting of the story.
    “Honour thy German masters!” is arguably Wagner’s most nationalistic aria; on numerous occasions in Bayreuth the audience has responded by rising to sing Deutschland Uber Alles (not so much in the last 70 years). In this production I was distracted by Eva carrying on like a pork (sorry) chop while Walther is invested not only with the guild chain but also an elaborate uniform and Sachs is highlighted in a single spotlight. The implication is that the Meistersingers are nascent Nazis and Eva is the only resistance on the stage. Fits in very well with early 21st century political sensitivities but not what Wagner intended.

    I saw the Katharina Wagner production at Bayreuth about 7 years ago – FMD! the best part was the prolonged demonstrations by the audience at the end inflammed by Katharina taking multiple bows amid a cacophony of booing
    The Kosky sounds very interesting; set in the Nuremberg courtroom indeed.

  16. Mavis Smith says: Saturday, November 24, 2018 at 4:56 pm

    I do trust that the Dems put up a capable candidate in 2020. I know you like Beto O’Rourke, who nearly pulled it off against Cruz in Texas. I’ve had a look at some of his speeches and he does appear to have the goods.

    ***********************************************

    I am with C@tmomma – I would love to see Beto O’Rourke and California’s Kamala Harris as the Dem team in 2020 …….

  17. In breaking news, Liberal Senator Jim Molan has been placed 4th on the Liberal senate ticket in NSW. They’ve put a woman as their lead candidate. Clear;y, the message the electorate has been sending regarding Turnbull’s sacking is starting to break through.
    _____
    Thanks for that excellent news, GG!

  18. ItzaDream @ #1491 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 4:17 pm

    @OC

    Ever seen a Sydney audience at the City Recital Hall give a genuine standing ovation, to a man and a woman? Me neither, till Tognetii’s astounding Beethoven no 5. Grown men wept; well, the one next to me did.

    I have, for Andreas Scholl, Paul Dyer and the Brandenburg Orchestra. Scholl singing Vivaldi, Cum Dederit. Utterly beautiful. The strings with strips of lead across the bridge!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_AUIyZEIzc

    My goto calming music, together with the Well Tempered Clavier, Schiff, and Mahler 5 Adagietto, BPO, Karajan.

  19. phoenixRed:

    [‘he may/may not be the worst ever President ever but he is surely the worst ever person to be President…’]

    Max Boost has a way with words, an excellent way of describing the Trump presidency.

  20. briefly

    women’s voices really must be heard….

    The closest I’ve come to the report I am looking for is this one: https://phys.org/news/2018-06-corruption-countries-women.html

    An extensive body of prior research shows that women politicians choose policies that are more closely related to the welfare of women, children, and family. The relationship is robust to the inclusion of a number of other control variables including economic, cultural, and institutional factors.

    The article itself is about how an increased presence of women as legislators correlates with a decrease in corruption.

    Still looking.

  22. Magpies have built a nest in my blackbutt. There’s a sentence waiting for the humorists to get started.
    Anyway, there is a male Koel hanging around moaning for a mate.
    I’ve chucked a few things at it to scare it off. Other than a rifle which I don’t have and don’t want, any suggestions for moving the Koel on?

  23. C@tmomma says: Saturday, November 24, 2018 at 5:12 pm

    phoenixRED,
    Kamala Harris has already produced her own innovative tax policy!

    ******************************************************

    From what I have seen and heard Kamala Harris is an extremely intelligent and extremely competent person and already from her appearances on various panels a person that the GOP fears to be on the wrong end of her forensic questioning ……

    That being said – the Dems can’t just rely on anti-Trump sentiment in 2020 but need to come up with great policies that will appeal to all America

  24. Aqualung @ #1522 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 5:17 pm

    Magpies have built a nest in my blackbutt. There’s a sentence waiting for the humorists to get started.
    Anyway, there is a male Koel hanging around moaning for a mate.
    I’ve chucked a few things at it to scare it off. Other than a rifle which I don’t have and don’t want, any suggestions for moving the Koel on?

    Koels love nesting magpies, to cuckold. Good luck moving it on. I wouldn’t bet on it, until a Koel egg is laid.

  25. “Will lithium batteries become old school ?”

    On a quick read of that link…no. Different battery suited to different application. Not same as the Swedish thing either. Different application.

    But, looks like a good type of tech if it actually works at the scale needed got grid type applications.

    Interesting that as the new techs like this come out they don’t actually make existing investments obsolete. The thing i like about the ALP energy policy is that the battery aspect seems linked to smart grids fit for distributed generation and storage. Have that kind of underlying infrastructure and you can link in new techs, and, when you get to replacement of the tech you start with easily integrate the new stuff.

    Bit like having a Fiber telecoms network. Have to make sure that we keep the Libs well away from this so they dont fwark it up.

  26. Lev Lafayette

    That is terrible. Dog whistling to a select few who ‘know’ who he’s talking about. Like Advance Australia’s Maurice Newman saying “We can’t leave the world to George Soros”. They just don’t want to say “evil Jews”.

    And I see Lyle Shelton has said of that Newman comment “Well said Maurice Newman”

    @LyleShelton
    Follow Follow @LyleShelton
    More
    “We are in the position of the battle of Stalingrad … we have retreated to such an extent we need to hold our ground somewhere and start to push back…We can’t leave the world to ­George Soros.” – Well said Maurice Newman #AdvanceAustralia

    Sort of makes a joke of their favourite “Judeo-Christian Civilization” line doesn’t it?

    Also sort of funny to use the metaphor of Stalingrad from The Great Patriotic War!

  27. Exit poll predicts comfortable Labor win
    Channel Nine has released the results of an election day Galaxy poll that shows Labor on track for a huge win, claiming 55% of the two party vote to 45% for the Coalition.

    The poll puts Labor on a 41% primary vote, with the Coalition on 38%. The Greens’ vote, predicted at 12%, appears to have held up despite the party’s disastrous campaign.

    Notably, there has been a record number of early votes cast this election.

  28. Mavis Smith @ #1467 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 3:02 pm

    don:

    My birth date was drawn but I was already in the ADF at the time. Judging by the effects it had on many called up for national service, you were lucky to have doged a bullet.

    Sadly, many who went to Vietnam copped that bullet. It was a bad time for Australia and those families who sent a loved one off to fight.

    I could never work out why they needed conscription. If they had done things better, high pay and the promise of training in trades and so on, they could have had volunteers enough, I would have thought.

    But it was the time when the ADF (and the politicians) had a ‘cannon-fodder’ mentality, left over from WWI and WWII, instead of the present ‘professional’ and very highly trained defence forces we have now.

    Even those who returned unharmed physically had a bad time on return. They were shunned by the people back in Australia in many cases, and if memory serves did not feel welcome in RSL clubs.

    And many suffered from PTSD, as had other veterans from earlier wars.

  29. That’s what I’m worried about Yabba. I thought it was an old nest but I watched a magpie work it’s way cautiously up the tree and then hop in the nest.
    Explains why the Koel has been hanging around.

  30. Kroger says:

    “In the end if we were to lose tonight and Labor were to win it would be on the basis that public thinks, “Well, the more important thing to worry about than crime is that we are getting free money from the government.”

  31. don
    Vietnam was the first war that was seriously contested domestically. The veterans returned into this contested space which did not help them with their PTSD at all.
    The closest previous experience for vets was those who returned from captivity following the Fall of Singapore. There was clearly an ambiguity about whether or not they had let the side down. Given that it was the British Army’s Worst Ever Defeat, and given the pitifully small casualties inflicted on the Japanese assault army, the doubters would have thought that they had a point. And certainly there is plenty of evidence of a readiness to run combined with a readiness to loot and get very drunk.
    But this point was, IMO, the wrong point.
    The British Army in Malaya was supplied with crap materiel, and then not much of it, and generally crap troops. The Japanese enjoyed more or less total control of the air and of the sea.
    Most of all, the British Army in Malaya was saddled with utterly crap officer material.
    Mr Churchill rather thought it best not to initiate an official inquiry.
    Such an inquiry would have made the RC into the Banks look like a Teddy Bear’s Picnic.
    The Inquiry would have trashed Churchill.
    Particularly had the TOR include the Fall of Burma which was an even worse shambles. It cost over a million lives.

  32. yabba @ #1518 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 5:02 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1491 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 4:17 pm

    @OC

    Ever seen a Sydney audience at the City Recital Hall give a genuine standing ovation, to a man and a woman? Me neither, till Tognetii’s astounding Beethoven no 5. Grown men wept; well, the one next to me did.

    I have, for Andreas Scholl, Paul Dyer and the Brandenburg Orchestra. Scholl singing Vivaldi, Cum Dederit. Utterly beautiful. The strings with strips of lead across the bridge!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_AUIyZEIzc

    My goto calming music, together with the Well Tempered Clavier, Schiff, and Mahler 5 Adagietto, BPO, Karajan.

    Good one yabba.

  33. lizzie @ #1530 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 5:38 pm

    Kroger says:

    “In the end if we were to lose tonight and Labor were to win it would be on the basis that public thinks, “Well, the more important thing to worry about than crime is that we are getting free money from the government.”

    Wasn’t it Matthew Guy who promised the Victorian electorate a free fridge!?!

  35. ‘Turnbull factor’ bites Liberals
    Malcolm Turnbull
    Samantha Hutchinson, Rachel Baxendale

    Labor says exit polls point to a stronger than expected result in wealthier seats as voters confront Liberal candidates over ex-PM.

    Excuses have started even before the result.

  36. “Most of all, the British Army in Malaya was saddled with utterly crap officer material.”

    It went higher than that Boer. A VERY massive underestimation of Japanese capability and almost a complete blind spot to the fact that a lot of the Japanese troops had extensive combat experience in China. Very much a failure at the highest levels of commonwealth command.

  39. Geoff Pearson
    @GCobber99

    Herald Sun, rails against Labor to little effect and Andrews refuses to go on 3aw’s Neil Mitchell program because he doesn’t believe he gets a fair go. That would be like a NSW premier snubbing Alan Jones. Andrews is many things, but he is not intimidated by anyone.

  41. Lizzie, Cat

    Exactly! I was about to say that Kroger’s claims were a bit rich coming from the party that has travelled the state with a trailer full of pork behind the wise Guy bus.

    Whereas most of Labor’s promises have been for projects and programs that serve the whole community. I’d like to think it shows Victorians have seen through bribes and scare campaigns.

  42. oakeshott country @ #1515 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 5:00 pm

    Itza
    Absolutely not what the Master ordered!

    the audience has responded by rising to sing Deutschland Uber Alles (not so much in the last 70 years).

    No, not so much!

    I saw a Parsifal in Zurich (Skelton) d Claus Gutt where Parsifal emerges from the ruins of WW1 as a proto-dictator. Parsifal! All power corrupts, and all that.

    Curtain calls here, Skelton in uniform.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydKp6V5XOLU

  43. Mavis Smith@4:44pm
    Democrats won every seat in Orange County, which was once a Republican base. Orange County sent a huge message to ‘Orange dotard’.

  45. Just saw the Jim Molan thing – amazing. Even the Liberals realise he is an absolute dud.

    For the Democrats in 2020 I like Harris and O’Rourke, but I think the smoky is this Senator from Minnesota representing the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party : Amy Klobuchar.

    I think she would clean sweep the Rust Belt states and thus become President.

  46. So I assume No 1 on the NSW Coalition ticket Holly Hughes has gotten over her ‘office of profit under the crown’?

    She lost out last time for the casual vacancy due to being on Brandis’s Rubber stamp Administrative Appeals Tribunal

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