Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Another national poll finds a narrowing in Labor’s lead, but there’s less encouraging news for the government out of Western Australia.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll echoes the weekend Ipsos result in recording a narrowing in the Labor lead to 52-48, in this case from 54-46 in the previous poll. The report in The Guardian is more forthcoming than usual on the primary vote, revealing that the damage to Labor has taken the form of a four-point drop to 35%, with the Coalition up only one point to 37%. Beyond that, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.

The supplementary questions include two gauging support for independents in parliament (42% would consider voting for one, 38% felt there should be more); two in which they were asked to rate the overall quality of the Coalition (28% good, 35% poor) and Labor (28% good, 33% poor) front benches; one in which they were asked who would do a better job running the country (36% Labor, 35% Coalition); one series in which they were presented with various propositions about the major parties and asked whether they agreed or disagreed (51% agreed both had no long-term plan for the country, 38% said there was no substantial difference between their policies and 42% said they were too ideological); and another in which they were asked if the government was doing enough to tackle various issues (no to pretty much everything).

There was also a small-sample poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia published in yesterday’s West Australian, conducted by local market research firm Painted Dog Research. This showed Labor leading 51-49 in the state, compared with a 54.7-45.3 result at the 2016 election. The primary votes were Coalition 32% (48.7% in 2016), Labor 34% (32.5%), Greens 11% (12.1%), One Nation 6% (no candidates fielded) and, echoing the findings of the Essential Research, 11% for independents. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday last week from a sample of 474. The report also relates that Labor internal polling in Cowan has Anne Aly adding 5% to her 0.7% margin, with the Liberal primary vote down 15% from its 42.2% in 2016, and that the party “believes it is in a strong position in Hasluck and in front in Stirling and line-ball in Pearce”.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential here. The full primary votes are Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 35% (down four), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1027.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,214 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 25
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  3. Alan Kirkland
    ‏ @AlanKirkland
    1m1 minute ago

    The Commonwealth Bank has a long track record of apologies. Why believe them this time? #bankingRC #sorrynotsorry

  4. KayJay,
    Despite much anti opinion Bemused was a ready assistant in cases such as this.

    So what!?! The ‘anti opinion’ was more than justified in Bemused’s case.

    KayJay, you are a nice man and very helpful to Bludgers but can I just say that this seemingly tireless, subtle campaign you have been waging lately to get Bemused reinstated to PB is just plain tacky.

    So what if he was of help in sorting out software and/or computer issues for Bludgers? It in no way takes away from the copious evidence of his stalking of various female posters and his unalloyed sexism and chauvinistic belittling of them, often multiple times a day and over a period of days, weeks, months and years!

    If you think that’s okay, say so, but this prevarication and papering over history with a none-to-subtle rewriting of it to portray Bemused as such a nice guy who should be allowed back to PB to take up where he left off, helping people, does you no credit at all.

    Just come right out and say it if you think that helping people with their computer problems should trump abusing women on this forum, eh? You’re just being too cute by half when you leave out the other parts of Bemused’s history on PB, in order to achieve your seeming goal.

  7. https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/activist-group-mobilises-local-antiabbott-campaign/news-story/a9176a04e93b73f17d0c3fd60a3ea141

    There are few things that would better serve this country than removing Abbott and his cronies from the Parliament. Abbott, Joyce, Dutton….Morrison too, for that matter. I hope that Hastie (in Canning) also goes and will be campaigning for his Labor opponent, Melissa Teede:

    https://www.alp.org.au/our-people/our-people/mellisa-teede/

  8. Victoria says: Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 10:32 am

    so Trump has submitted answers to the Mueller probe. Perhaps the investigation will be close to wrapping up n0w

    **************************************************************

    I guess its then a comparison by what he ( read His Lawyers ) has written in submission to what the Mueller team knows from all the US intelligence agencies, 5 Eyes SIGINT etc etc that have fed into Mueller …… and maybe it will then open the rumoured sealed indictment(s) on Trump …..

  9. I’ve just had a read of the Advance Australia website.

    It looks like FairGo re-written by an American Republican who has been given a 20 minute run down of Australian politics.

  10. I’m with C@t on the matter of “bemused”. He was snark on overdrive….turbo-snark. He spent 8 unbroken years taunting several other bludgers, most particularly ”confessions”. His malice was mostly aimed at women and resulted in more than one of them retreating from this site for good, usually in tears. He came looking for trouble everyday, a skinhead among the bludgers. Apart from the periods when he was excluded, he spent most of his days here chucking rocks, breaking windows, upending the bins, slashing tyres and looting the shops. Bludging is a team sport but he was determined to make it all about him, about his particular hates.

    I very deeply hope WB never changes his mind.

  13. The trouble for mobs like Advance Australia is that generally a Tory’s idea of activism is to go to a fundraiser, rub shoulders with like minded people and hand over a cheque. Hopefully some people can then be paid to actually do the work.

    Get Up and Labor have attracted a large pool of volunteers who are prepared to give their time and energy to the causes they believe in.

    I would wager Advance Australia will have a very short life, disappearing soon after the next election.

  15. Pigeons coming home to roost.

    Abul Rizvi, a former deputy secretary of the Department of Immigration, says Mr Morrison made three key decisions which have contributed to the population problem Australia now faces.

    “He locked in [the] migration program at 190,000 per annum by linking it to the budget,” Mr Rizvi told 7.30.

    “He significantly boosted the level of overseas students, who drove the increase in net overseas migration, particularly to Sydney and Melbourne.

    “Thirdly, he reduced the usage of regional visas very significantly, the very visas that he now says we need to increase the usage of.”

    Mr Rizvi said immigration policy needed to be thought of as a, “long-term lever, not just something you whipped together before an election”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-20/morrisons-population-problem-of-own-making-former-official-says/10515852

  16. C@tmomma (Block)
    Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 10:49 am
    Comment #804

    and

    briefly (AnonBlock)
    Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 11:06 am
    Comment #810

    Thank you for your comments.

    My note related only to the assistance Bemused was willing to give in relation to posting to Poll Bludger problems. Nothing else.

    Thank you. 🌻

  17. “The WaPo, NY Times, NBC and others have been salivating from last Wednesday. Do they know something that we don’t, or is it just speculation?”

    I saw a report that major issues were to happen on the 26th of this month US time. A judge was requested to put off things to the 26th then “all matters before him would be clearer”

  18. don @ #766 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 10:52 am

    C@tmomma (Block)
    Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 10:49 am
    Comment #804

    C@t that is an unbecoming comment, totally over the top and unwarranted.

    Sorry, but no it isn’t. Obviously you don’t suffer from the PTSD that I do, as a Domestic Violence Survivor, when none too subtle attempts are made to slyly suggest that Bemused wasn’t that bad after all, helpful little computer gnome that he was.

    Well, I’m sorry but the truth is he was so persistently an aggressive transgressor that Mr Bowe saw fit to put a stop to it.

    If you can’t see that salient fact as being pertinent, then the fault is yours, not mine.

    So, I will constantly stay on the alert for any instances of Bemused knob-polishing which occurs and call them out.

  19. C@tmomma @ #804 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 10:49 am

    KayJay,
    Despite much anti opinion Bemused was a ready assistant in cases such as this.

    So what!?! The ‘anti opinion’ was more than justified in Bemused’s case.
    This is just bullshit, way over the top.
    There is the scroll wheel use it or the block.
    KayJay, you are a nice man and very helpful to Bludgers but can I just say that this seemingly tireless, subtle campaign you have been waging lately to get Bemused reinstated to PB is just plain tacky.

    So what if he was of help in sorting out software and/or computer issues for Bludgers? It in no way takes away from the copious evidence of his stalking of various female posters and his unalloyed sexism and chauvinistic belittling of them, often multiple times a day and over a period of days, weeks, months and years!

    If you think that’s okay, say so, but this prevarication and papering over history with a none-to-subtle rewriting of it to portray Bemused as such a nice guy who should be allowed back to PB to take up where he left off, helping people, does you no credit at all.

    Just come right out and say it if you think that helping people with their computer problems should trump abusing women on this forum, eh? You’re just being too cute by half when you leave out the other parts of Bemused’s history on PB, in order to achieve your seeming goal.

  22. Rossmcg

    Exactly what I was thinking after that absurd announcement. Cory Bernardi likewise had this vision of a “Conservative Army” to take on activists. But these movements seem to always fail due to lack of actual boots on the ground. All the fundraisers in the world with the like of say Gina Rinehart are no substitute for actual person power. And the Soros comment – so pathetic that it really makes you wonder if they were reading from the wrong press release, you know – one from the USA.

    It is interesting to hear very anti-Labor relatives bang on about GetUp in particular, even more than Unions. Basically they would like to ban them! When hearing these diatribes I just think “They really must be doing something right”.

  23. his stalking of various female posters and his unalloyed sexism and chauvinistic belittling of them, often multiple times a day and over a period of days, weeks, months and years!

    Are those peals of incredulous laughter that I can hear coming from Pegasus and Daretotread?

  24. ‘Advance Australia’ is so obviously just a collection of Elites and Vested Interests who have concocted an Astro Turf group to try and game the next federal election. You just have to look at their roll call to understand this.

    Whereas, GetUp are a grass roots organisation. Yes, maybe they receive funds from Unions, but, at the end of the day, Unions themselves are also grass roots organisations but in the workplace. And that’s no bad thing.

    Unlike, ‘Advance Australia’.

  26. imacca @ #684 Tuesday, November 20th, 2018 – 10:43 pm

    “Are you saying you think you can taste the salt or you just have the impression it’s there?”

    Oh i know its there. used to the taste though…its the water i grew up with.

    Most obvious is at work where we have a lot of evap coolers on scheme water. Get the salt cleaned off them 2 times a year.

    On Perth water, I keep turtles and fish so maintain a key interest in the GH and KH of Perth water. It’s very high which accounts for the white reside you see wherever water regularly evaporates from. The level of salt is not notably high for freshwater.

  27. Sceptic @8.32 am………..I made the same point two days ago. I too noted Latham but also pointed to the likes of Richo and Hewson as changelings. However, it does seem that Fran Kelly pushes the hot buttons for some. I notice some have bagged her approach this morning on RN breakfast with Dan Andrews. As RN has a listening audience about the size of The Australian’s readership it Perth, I doubt it matters that much.

  28. itsthevibe @ #784 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 11:41 am

    his stalking of various female posters and his unalloyed sexism and chauvinistic belittling of them, often multiple times a day and over a period of days, weeks, months and years!

    Are those peals of incredulous laughter that I can hear coming from Pegasus and Daretotread?

    Come in spinner! I knew this false equivalence may be advanced by someone, and up you popped.

    Yes, you have a kind of point, however, Pegasus gives as good as she gets, a fact that never seems to come into the equation, plus the added fact of her constant attempts to denigrate Labor with her cutting and pasting, a fact I pointed out, yet again, with hard evidence, when she brought up an article from 2015! and magically left out the bits that weren’t suitable for the advancement of her Anti Labor agenda.

    Which is all well and good, she has a ‘free speech’ right to do that, but it is also my ‘free speech’ right to pull her up about it and to exemplify the cogs which turn her gears.

    As far as daretotread is concerned, you may not have noticed that we have achieved a rapprochement and gentle chiding on both sides is now the result. I am also leaving it to others to point out the flies in her ointment. I don’t have the time. 🙂

    So, although I don’t expect it, it would be nice if just once in a while people would acknowledge that there are 2 sides to every coin.

  29. ross, cat

    The other absurd thing about AA is that they see one of the most important issues as “preserving Australia Day”.

    I believe we should celebrate Australia Day – on 9th May.
    – 9th May 1901 opening of Australia’s first Federal Parliament (in Melbourne)
    – 9th May 1927 opening of Parliament House in Canberra
    – 9th May 1988 opening of New Parliament House in Canberra

  33. “So, although I don’t expect it, it would be nice if just once in a while people would acknowledge that there are 2 sides to every coin.”

    As was the case with Bemused of course.

  34. GetUp are an excellent organisation – they are progressive, they have boots on the ground, they are media savvy, they are economically literate. Especially Ed Miller, the leader of the Future To Fight For Campaign.

    ed@getup.org.au

    Their advocacy for a Job Guarantee to ensure that that anyone who wants minimum wage employment will have it whenever they want is by far the most valuable contribution that anyone is making to shaping the political agenda in Australia today.

  37. Well, even I ended up getting along with Bemused in the end. There’s always room for accommodation, in any relationship, dysfunctional or otherwise.

    I don’t think Kay Jay is agitating for Bemused’s return. Mere mention of a name, in appreciative tone, is evidence of nothing.

    Anyway, what if he was? What’s the harm?

  40. It’s not just that casuals don’t get paid enough to compensate them for loss of holiday pay etc it’s also that casuals can’t take holidays.

    Basically, if you’re a casual and you say ‘no’ to work, then they get someone else in to do your work, and that person takes your job.

    I’ve known casual workers who work seven days a week for six weeks straight.

  41. Some people are blinded by their sheer arrogant self-serving ideological stupidity.
    Take a look where the Far Right and the Far Left are taking the poor old British Lion.
    As for the Australian Greens and their addiction to the UBI, nothing could be more stupid.
    If GetUp! is going there, they are finished.

  43. B

    Some people are blinded by their sheer arrogant self-serving ideological stupidity.

    I agree. Good to see you have some self-awareness.

    Please call me “filthy” again.

    (Not to be taken seriously).

  45. Re. Two sides to every coin… exactly!

    C@t, you do have a habit of picking fights, offering free criticism, chucking shit around and then squealing when some of it comes back your way.

    This thing with Kay Jay is a perfect example. KJ is one of the gentle souls around here, our resident good spirit. Yet you tore into him as if he was some kind of malevolent plotter and schemer.

    It was an unjustified attack, far too aggressive. Referring to your personal feelings about Bemused doesn’t excuse it.

  47. Pegasus says:
    Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 12:11 pm
    Does Cat stalk me? Discuss.

    (Not to be taken seriously, really)
    ——————————-
    Cat, Briefly, Boerwar and a few of their adherents appear to stalk, try to intimidate and abuse everyone who doesn’t kow-tow to their opinions, from my observations over years.
    The ridiculousness of diatribes from many hear are entertaining, if you don’t take them too seriously.
    The majority of all political decisions passed by the parliamnet over the last two decades have been with express and complicit support of the Lib Lab tweedledum, tweedledee parties.
    Anyone who thinks there been failures and problems, needds to recognise that.
    Pity that facts don’t count for much on this forum. Cheers

  48. In the end, bemused did himself in by targeting WB for vituperative slander and insults. So the decision to forgive and restore bemused’s visitation rights for PB are entirely in the gift of William.

    I don’t see it happening soon. But, others have been banned forever and returned.

  50. Bushfire Bill @ #798 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 12:12 pm

    Well, even I ended up getting along with Bemused in the end. There’s always room for accommodation, in any relationship, dysfunctional or otherwise.

    I don’t think Kay Jay is agitating for Bemused’s return. Mere mention of a name, in appreciative tone, is evidence of nothing.

    Anyway, what if he was? What’s the harm?

    1. You’re a male. Bemused may have sniped at you but that was mane e mane, and not All. The. Time. And I’m mainly standing up for ‘fess here. It was as relentless as it was galling and upsetting. I called it out, so he started in on me as well. Ditto, zoomster. Then he came up with his, ‘The Sisterhood’ dig. Then worse. And that’s what eventually, after a long history of infractions, caused Mr Bowe to bin him. That wasn’t my decision, I didn’t send a pleading email to Mr Bowe asking for it, it was just done when he just went too far.

    2. If it was ‘mere mention of a name in appreciative tone’ I could have thought, fair enough, but it was the fact that his name was intentionally bolded, in order to highlight his good deeds, without mention of his misdeeds, by way of balance, that said to me, Bemused ain’t so bad.

    Btw, is Bemused still banned ‘over the road’?

    Anyway, now that we all know the convolutions of my thought processes, can we all just put it to bed?

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