The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll echoes the weekend Ipsos result in recording a narrowing in the Labor lead to 52-48, in this case from 54-46 in the previous poll. The report in The Guardian is more forthcoming than usual on the primary vote, revealing that the damage to Labor has taken the form of a four-point drop to 35%, with the Coalition up only one point to 37%. Beyond that, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.
The supplementary questions include two gauging support for independents in parliament (42% would consider voting for one, 38% felt there should be more); two in which they were asked to rate the overall quality of the Coalition (28% good, 35% poor) and Labor (28% good, 33% poor) front benches; one in which they were asked who would do a better job running the country (36% Labor, 35% Coalition); one series in which they were presented with various propositions about the major parties and asked whether they agreed or disagreed (51% agreed both had no long-term plan for the country, 38% said there was no substantial difference between their policies and 42% said they were too ideological); and another in which they were asked if the government was doing enough to tackle various issues (no to pretty much everything).
There was also a small-sample poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia published in yesterday’s West Australian, conducted by local market research firm Painted Dog Research. This showed Labor leading 51-49 in the state, compared with a 54.7-45.3 result at the 2016 election. The primary votes were Coalition 32% (48.7% in 2016), Labor 34% (32.5%), Greens 11% (12.1%), One Nation 6% (no candidates fielded) and, echoing the findings of the Essential Research, 11% for independents. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday last week from a sample of 474. The report also relates that Labor internal polling in Cowan has Anne Aly adding 5% to her 0.7% margin, with the Liberal primary vote down 15% from its 42.2% in 2016, and that the party “believes it is in a strong position in Hasluck and in front in Stirling and line-ball in Pearce”.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential here. The full primary votes are Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 35% (down four), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1027.
Best of luck to Renae Lawrence, but will the ABC PLEASE STOP breathlessly announcing, and re-announcing her release, over and over, day after day, minute by minute?
Anyone who doesn’t know Lawrence is about to be released will already have been hiding in a bush clearing somewhere in the Blue Mountains, living rough off the land, muttering about the End Of The World. In short, if they don’t already know, they won’t be WANTING to know.
The same goes for the story about our friendly NSW coppers waiting for her with handcuffs and an arrest warrant, not for drugs offences (she’s already done her time for them: 13 years of it), but over a stolen car.
For Christ’s sake what bunch of wowsers are running the NSW police, so desperate to get in on the act that they need to photo-bomb a very fragile, fraught and no doubt contrite Lawrence’s return by proving how tough on crime they are. Will they be pepper-spraying her dog too? Threatening her mother with a pistol?
Last week we saw Trolley Man try to help Melbourne police avoid being stabbed by a crazy. He became a national hero for his efforts, misguided or not.
His reward from the state of Victoria for publicly revealing his identity on national TV? First, heavy ctiticism for performing a civic act that may have saved lives, then arrested and charged by a humorless (and heartless) Victorian plod.
Is this where their NSW bretheren got the inspiration for their Renae Lawrence effort?
Haven’t she and Trolley Man done their bit, arguably at far greater cost and risk than any of the gun-toting coppers, who lately seem to have turned arriving late to a crime scene into an art form?
ven
Ratnam is loud when it comes to wedging Labor; silent when it comes to truthin the Greens.
”
KayJay says:
Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 9:13 am
We are pleased for you. (Tears of joy.)
Have you been able to find a cause for the disruption ❓
”
Thanks KJ
No, I could not find the cause KJ. I tried Ctrl+F5/ Alt+F5 to no avail. Today I cleared Cookies & caches for last 7 days & I am able to post
@Ven
Browser probably just being silly with information left behind somewhere and your browser decided it was ok now.
”
Zoidlord says:
Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 9:18 am
Greg Jericho
Verified account @GrogsGamut
36m36 minutes ago
So an election campaign based on fear and migrants (with some fairly unsubtle links between the two). Oh joy.
”
Hopefully it backfires like it did in US of A. BTW, isn’t it coincidental that 3 terror suspects, who were under surveillance for a long time, are arrested for suspected terror plot just before elections. Just wondering
Better still: ditch the plug in and enjoy PB warts and all. What’s so scary about it?
”
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 9:25 am
ven
Ratnam is loud when it comes to wedging Labor; silent when it comes to truthin the Greens.
”
You mean like Pegasus. 🙂
Jackie Trad
Verified account @jackietrad
Nov 20
On the day Melbourne honours one of her most success migrants, @ScottMorrisonMP starts an anti-immigration debate… seriously, what is wrong with this bloke? Poor planning & under investment in infrastructure to blame for congested cities, not migrants.
‘These losses are caused by climate change rather than population or fishing pressure. The marine environment is undergoing immense changes as temperatures rise.’
Briefly, surely more people will fix that. If only Australia had more people, emitting more CO2 per person than just about anywhere else, will fix AGW and the fish will come back.
”
Zoidlord says:
Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 9:32 am
@Ven
Browser probably just being silly with information left behind somewhere and your browser decided it was ok now.
”
May be.
Ven @ #753 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 9:29 am
Good information. I somehow thought that CTRL F5 would do that.
Thanks for your response. 😎
Wonder if we having another economy crash and not just a “correction”…..?
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/world/wall-streets-slow-motion-crash-continues-with-no-end-in-sight-20181120-h1855c
Murdoch’s Oz has an article (not paywalled) on “Advance Australia” which isn’t entirely complimentary:
Plenty of coincidences there already.
In a week where a crazy man who killed 6 and injured dozens was convicted of the crimes, another crazy turns up to the same spot, kills one poor bloke, and causes a national panic. Where were the cops? Checking Trolley Man’s credentials, that’s where.
Moral of the story? Never embarrass the police.
Second coincidence: amazing the number of prominent politicians – even the ones from interstate like the PM – who knew the victim on first name terms, personally, as a good friend of apparent long standing.
I thought that was today’s Liberal party.
Roger
“It is almost like you people think that the kind of middle-class socially-progressive-but-individualist type that dominate the progressive media institutions in this country could in some way harbour unconscious biases towards the ALP?”
——–
Indeed.
I hate the way “liberals” have arrogantly taken to calling themselves “left”. The liberals, i.e. those whose primary ideology is furthering global liberal capitalism are the main enemy of the real left. The right wing nut jobs are a dead end distraction. The RWNJ are supported by increasingly stranded industries.
The real game for global capitalism is to disrupt local centres of autonomy so global corporations can graze over the whole earth without hinderance.
Globalising liberals are their main political instruments. As mainstream left wing parties in the west have been taken over by globalising liberals they have gone into political decline.
This has given an unfortunate opening to far right parties who can claim to be the only ones offering an alternative.
The name of Alternative for Germany is a smart piece of spin.
@Confessions
Today’s right wing part of the Liberal Party.
PeeBee @ #761 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 5:36 am
Isn’t that figure partly due to Australia’s relatively low population and large land area?
Guardian Australia
Verified account @GuardianAus
1m1 minute ago
Australia refuses to sign UN migration pact, citing risks to turnbacks and detention
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/21/australia-refuses-to-sign-un-migration-pact-citing-risks-to-turnbacks-and-detention?CMP=soc_568
And like I said last night, we are closing our borders.
Bec Shaw
Verified account @Brocklesnitch
5m5 minutes ago
Bec Shaw Retweeted
The day after transgender day of rememberence, the PM spreading misinformation & hate that will only cause harm. https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP
Perhaps you guys last night should be focusing your energy on Liberal Party hating anyone that is not Australian.
NSW Coal Plants will kill thousands:
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/scandal-nsw-coal-power-plants-will-kill-thousands-before-they-close-20181120-p50h66.html
MPs failed to Declare:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/190-bottles-of-wine-21-cases-of-beer-and-a-pineapple-gifts-for-mp-s-interest-20181113-p50fs8.html
KayJay @ #741 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 9:13 am
Thank you for your help in times of trouble KJ. You do the hard yards of struggling with obstreperous machines and software to help the rest of us chooks, who only just maintain a semblance of computer knowhow.
The only problem I have had recently is that I have had to occasionally refresh PB, and that a comment I have artfully composed either disappears completely or goes into some limbo land, only to appear twenty minutes later.
Andrew Giles MP
Verified account @andrewjgiles
2h2 hours ago
Just appalling to hear that Australia will line up with Trump and Orban in rejecting the Global Compact on Migration, and turning our backs on the world’s most vulnerable. We are better than this – capable of leadership, of supporting hope over fear.
BIgD, ‘Isn’t that figure partly due to Australia’s relatively low population and large land area?’
Accepting that logic (which I don’t). As the land area is fixed, then more people equal more emissions. And because of the large area, more emissions per capita than any other peoples on earth.
Hence my sarcastic comment about increasing Australia’s population will fix AGW and bring back the fish.
Trump says troops on border are ‘tough people’ and don’t need to spend Thanksgiving with their families
President Donald Trump on Tuesday dismissed the idea that U.S. troops were suffering by spending time away from their families on Thanksgiving.
Before the president headed to his Thanksgiving festivities at Mar-a-Lago, he was asked about the thousands of troops who he has ordered to spend the holiday on the U.S. border.
Trump added that the soldiers are “tough people” who are used to making sacrifices.
“They are proud to be on the border,” he said. “They are proud to be defending our nation.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/trump-says-troops-border-tough-people-dont-need-spend-thanksgiving-families/
lizzie says:
Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 9:41 am
Remy Varga
@RemyVarga
36m36 minutes ago
A motion to expel Turnbull from the Liberal Party has been passed by the Roseville branch. Sources tell @aclennell it’s because Turnbull didn’t support the Libs at Wentworth AND because he started following an instagram account aiming to unseat Abbott
They will all end up taking revenge on each other. Excellent. Let’s hope that Turnbull campaigns against Abbott. Abbott certainly campaigned against Turnbull.
Donald Trump wanted Justice Department to prosecute Hillary Clinton and James Comey but was told he’d be impeached: report
White House counsel Donald F. McGahn II reportedly “rebuffed” the president.” McGahn has since left the administration.
“To underscore his point, Mr. McGahn had White House lawyers write a memo for Mr. Trump warning that if he asked law enforcement to investigate his rivals, he could face a range of consequences, including possible impeachment,” The Times reported. “The encounter was one of the most blatant examples yet of how Mr. Trump views the typically independent Justice Department as a tool to be wielded against his political enemies.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/donald-trump-wanted-justice-department-prosecute-hillary-clinton-james-comey-talked-report/
BB
‘..then arrested and charged by a humorless (and heartless) Victorian plod.’
Actually, no.
The media dug into his past, found he was wanted on a number of matters, and then he VOLUNTARILY gave himself up. There is no evidence the police went looking for him (although, of course, using the Matthew Guy Rules Of Justice, he should have been locked up anyway).
FECCA
@iFECCA
23h23 hours ago
FECCA says immigration decision shows lack of leadership: https://mailchi.mp/fecca/fecca-says-immigration-decision-shows-lack-of-leadership?e=474951093f …
“”The best thing that can be done to limit population growth on Earth is to give everyone a decent standard of living, with access to good health care, education, and a decent living environment.””
And don’t forget FREE condoms!.
FECCA? Wow what a surprise that it wants supercharged immigration!
Pretty pointless not signing up to the Global Compact on Migration as it says below, non-legally binding’ . Number 13 of the 23 objectives would have scared the Coalition…………..and Labor.
.
.
The Global Compact for Migration is the first-ever UN global agreement on a common approach to international migration in all its dimensions. The global compact is non-legally binding.
The global compact comprises 23 objectives
(13) Use migration detention only as a measure of last resort and work towards alternatives
https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/migration-compact
@Swanprat
Actually…. Maybe read the press release:
“The real issue in the so-called ‘immigration debate’ is inadequate infrastructure, not migrant numbers. We need a Government that shows true leadership on population policy,” Ms Patetsos said.
Today (or mostly tomorrow our time) is Thanksgiving in the USA, which marks the start of the (commercial) Christmas season there. Christmas is in full swing in local shopping malls, with the decorations and Santas, although it seems to be a little lower key than I recall from the past. Meanwhile, I am sure that right wing politicians and Murdoch columnists are trawling through the internet to look for instances of schools not Christmas pageants, stores not setting up nativity scenes and what have you to get outraged about.
@poroti
Except that Detention is used first, and “work towards alternatives” is last.
https://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/376442/refugees-in-png-being-pushed-to-the-brink-amnesty-says
don (Block)
Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 10:01 am
Comment #774
You are too kind. Really. Rather than simply being obsessive compulsive in regard to posting my pieces of nonsense (most of which are a little to the left of sane) I like to understand how various problems arise and how they may be circumvented.
Some of the Poll Bludgers – AR and Zeh in particular, are the gems who are educated in the nuts and bolts of the code involved in both the blog and the various addins/addons.
The mysterious disappearances/reappearances are beyond my ken and because of that I have as an adjunct to posting a little program Comfort Clipboard Manager which saves my gems (and other items subsequent to CTRL A – CTRL C).
à votre santé – I have given up my pseudo Portuguese (which I have been spelling incorrectly)and Swahili. 💐🌺
The global compact comprises 23 objectives
(13) Use migration detention only as a measure of last resort and work towards alternatives
Conspicuous imprisonment under inhuman conditions is the measure of first resort in Lib doctrine.
Activist group mobilises local anti-Abbott campaign:
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/activist-group-mobilises-local-antiabbott-campaign/news-story/a9176a04e93b73f17d0c3fd60a3ea141
““I’ve never seen anything like this — people are literally queuing up to hear how they can take on Tony Abbott. It’s unreal. It feels more like a festival than a community meeting.””
Tony Abbott, John Howard, ScoMo.
All hate Migration and Refugees.
Zoidlord
I read it. It says exactly as I expected it would say.
Quotes:
– Our strong immigration level is vital to Australia’s economic growth (i.e. presumably growth is an unalloyed good which must be pursued at all costs?)
– cutting immigration would negatively impact the Budget (i.e. why has our budget become dependent on more and more people?)
– The real issue in the so-called ‘immigration debate’ is ….. not migrant numbers. (i.e. presumably unending numbers will never be an issue); and
– Our role is to advocate and promote issues on behalf of our constituency
Go to an Advance Australia meeting…and be girt by Cs….
so Trump has submitted answers to the Mueller probe. Perhaps the investigation will be close to wrapping up n0w
Of course Morrison’s supposed 30,000 cut in permanent migration is/will be smoke and mirrors. They will just increase the temporary visas.
But the liberals running the ALP cannot say this.
The Libs are making themselves synonymous with phobias. They are the champs of fear. Really, they have succumbed to terror, in a sense. In most cases, the fears are of their own making, which means they have frightened themselves into cruelty, stupidity and cowardice.
I think that’s the best that can be said of them today.
on twitter. not unbelievable at all. Trump knows which side his bread is buttered on.
———————–
F’n Unbelievable.
The Americans who killed Bin Laden – a Saudi, gets insulted by our President.
A Saudi murders an American resident journalist and he 100% okay with it.
Which side is this clown on?
zoidlord
Morrison is carrying on about immigration to help his counterparts in Victoria. The fiberals are the masters of pretending to want to cut immigration and do opposite. Big business relies on the economy growing via immigration.
swamprat @ #795 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 6:33 am
I thought it was a cut to 30,000 which as we have discovered would be a negative cut. 🙂
Dan Ziffer
Verified account @danziffer
2m2 minutes ago
BIG BIG. Commonwealth Bank board accused of breaking the law twice – director’s duties and failure to keep good board minutes – by Rowena Orr QC in #BankingRC #auspol
Steve777 @ #17980 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 7:34 am
The dread diseases bit would be another FauxMown goal: David Isaacs is Professor of Paediatric Infectious Diseases at Westmead, and was heavily involved in the genuine effort to provide adequate medical care for these Refugees when the current Prime Muppet set up the reign of terror currently run by the Obergruppenführer-SS Adolph Kipfler. David was the bloke who dared the Scum Staffel to prosecute him for breaching the gag order they tried to impose on the hellish conditions in the Concentration Camps. FauxMo had to back down on that one too.