Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Another national poll finds a narrowing in Labor’s lead, but there’s less encouraging news for the government out of Western Australia.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll echoes the weekend Ipsos result in recording a narrowing in the Labor lead to 52-48, in this case from 54-46 in the previous poll. The report in The Guardian is more forthcoming than usual on the primary vote, revealing that the damage to Labor has taken the form of a four-point drop to 35%, with the Coalition up only one point to 37%. Beyond that, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.

The supplementary questions include two gauging support for independents in parliament (42% would consider voting for one, 38% felt there should be more); two in which they were asked to rate the overall quality of the Coalition (28% good, 35% poor) and Labor (28% good, 33% poor) front benches; one in which they were asked who would do a better job running the country (36% Labor, 35% Coalition); one series in which they were presented with various propositions about the major parties and asked whether they agreed or disagreed (51% agreed both had no long-term plan for the country, 38% said there was no substantial difference between their policies and 42% said they were too ideological); and another in which they were asked if the government was doing enough to tackle various issues (no to pretty much everything).

There was also a small-sample poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia published in yesterday’s West Australian, conducted by local market research firm Painted Dog Research. This showed Labor leading 51-49 in the state, compared with a 54.7-45.3 result at the 2016 election. The primary votes were Coalition 32% (48.7% in 2016), Labor 34% (32.5%), Greens 11% (12.1%), One Nation 6% (no candidates fielded) and, echoing the findings of the Essential Research, 11% for independents. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday last week from a sample of 474. The report also relates that Labor internal polling in Cowan has Anne Aly adding 5% to her 0.7% margin, with the Liberal primary vote down 15% from its 42.2% in 2016, and that the party “believes it is in a strong position in Hasluck and in front in Stirling and line-ball in Pearce”.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential here. The full primary votes are Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 35% (down four), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1027.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,214 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 18 of 25
1 … 17 18 19 … 25

  2. Breaking:
    Maggie Habbernan.
    Trump wanted to order Justice Dept to prosecute Comey and Clinton but was warned it could lead to impeachment. He also asked the Dept ( Rosenstein and Whitaker) on multiple occasions as to how the investigations into Clinton and Comey were proceeding.
    Yet, both Comey and Clinton were no longer in office.
    This is the seminal moment in Trump’s Presidency. He has attempted to politicise the DOJ.
    Will be interesting what Mueller makes of this interference.

  3. In the end, bemused did himself in by targeting WB for vituperative slander and insults

    As has been pointed out by others to Cat when she made the same claim about why bemused was banned.

    No doubt she will continue to misrepresent the facts.

  7. No doubt she will continue to misrepresent the facts.

    It is actually a misrepresentation of the facts that it was one, isolated incident that got Bemused banned. That was just the straw that broke the camel’s back. He finally went a bridge too far.

    But, so nice of you to try and misrepresent that fact so you could have your usual little sly dig at me. So predictable.

  8. Finally, because I am well and truly over it, as all I wished to do was make sure that Bemused continued to be seen in the cold light of day for what he was most of the time, can I also just point out again that, yes, KayJay is a ‘gentle soul’ and a lovely human being etc etc it’s just that bolding his name in his comment seemed a little bit ott to me. That’s all.

  10. [‘The motion could be killed off if it goes to the federal electorate conference for Bradfield, the seat that includes Roseville, because the party’s moderate faction controls the key party positions in the FEC.’]

    I’m surprised that the moderate faction controls any key positions in the Tory Party.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-fall-silent-after-roseville-branch-votes-to-expel-malcolm-turnbull-20181121-p50hcy.html

  11. I really hope the libs are crazy enough to expel Turnbull. What better way could there be to declare themselves to be Tont Abbott’s party and lose thousands of voters forever? I know quite a few people who hoped Turnbull would bring the libs back to the centre and expelling him would tell them all that this is never going to happen. Turnbull and son will be free to start financing and endorsing liberal democrats around the nation targeting the most conservative lib and national pollies around the country. the remain moderates in the LNP might choose to become independents if their is a movement.

    The libs only need to lose one seat – they seem to forget this. All it will take is one moderate in a marginal seat (perhaps contemplating retirement) to declare themselves to be an independent, bring on an election and get their pension (and revenge). are there any likely candidates?

  13. Expulsion of Turnbull from the Liberals would give him free reign to back anti Abbott candidates in Warringah and against other conservatives elsewhere. Plus it would lead to more civil war in the Liberals as the moderates and conservatives duke it out.

  14. I never met Bemused but if he annoyed C@t this much then get him back here! And Confessions is the most boring contributor on here, always just agreeing with what someone said or offering the most banal observation.

  16. Mundine’s really turned full circle exampled by his Sky News gig, giving consideration to stand in Gilmore as a Tory – this from a former national president of the ALP.

  23. nath

    Actually, he isn’t.

    ‘…he doesn’t expect to change course now.’

    To make it clear to you: he’s still going to vote the same way he always has.

  25. Banking RC

    Ms. Orr to CBAs Livingstone on why Comyn was appointed. … But, perhaps distressingly, she tells the commission that “to find an external person globally at that level who has not been involved in some regulatory event is almost impossible”.

    “And I don’t mean that as a joke,” she says.

    In short the whole world banking system is corrupt!

  26. Italian migrant Domenic Gigliotti, 80, alters Tim Read’s clothes. He might vote Greens this time.

    One who is considering his vote is Domenic Gigliotti, who’s owned a clothing store on Lygon Street for 46 years.
    Going inside the shop is like going back in time – to when this was still ALP heartland. But Gigliotti says he’s still thinking about who to vote for and won’t decide for another week.
    “Usually I stick with the same,” he says,
    This time he might “give the vote to my friend here”, he says pointing to a Tim Read sticker in the front window. Read comes to Gigliotti to “fix things, buy things … but it’s not because of that”. “He’s a good man.”

  28. …I also note that the article makes it clear that those voting Green are admitting that they like the Andrews government.

    In other words, they’re rusted on Greens voters – they’re not voting Green on any particular issues du jour, because if they did, they’d vote for Andrews.

    For Brunswick and other similar seats to fall, the Greens need a swing TO them – that is, people who are dissatisfied with the Andrews government deliberately switching.

    The writer of that article seemed unable to find anyone like that in Brunswick. If everyone votes the way they did last time (as all of those interviewed indicated they were) then Brunswick stays Labor.

    Not saying it will, just saying that article isn’t evidence of anything much.

  31. nath

    Not on current polling, it isn’t.

    The Greens have been very wise to change their strategy to target particular seats. However, it’s also an admission that they’re a fringe party, like PHON – able to pick up a seat here and there, but never likely to win government.

    The evidence is that the tide is going out for the Greens. This makes it unlikely – not impossible, but unlikely – that they will pick up many more seats in the future.

  32. poroti:

    [‘Mundine-It’s what happens when you start hanging out too much with your father in law ‘]

    I blame B.A Santamaria’s love child Gerard Henderson for the proselytisation of Mundine.

  35. zoomster
    says:
    Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 1:22 pm
    nath
    Not on current polling, it isn’t.
    The Greens have been very wise to change their strategy to target particular seats.
    _____________________________
    You see that’s what you don’t understand. It’s not a matter of targeting seats. The Greens could ‘target’ Carrum and spend all their money there, wont do much. It’s the changing, and still changing demographics in inner Melbourne that will make it a Greens stronghold. Not by ‘targeting’ them.

  41. So Harry Leslie Smith (@Harryslaststand) is apparently gravely ill in the UK. His son is keeping the Twitterverse updated with live updates from the hospital. Many progressive PBers will probably be familiar with his work, but for those who aren’t:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/04/coalition-attacks-nhs-return-britain-age-workhouse

    He’s a wonderful man and a great writer with it. I’d ask everyone to keep him in their thoughts.

  42. Labor certainly don’t waste valuable resources on campaigns in New England, but if Fiona Simson enters the fray I would not be surprised if they did a Wentworth and gave what help they could to her.

    Labor, no matter what candidate, has no hope of a win here.

  43. Ewart Dave
    ‏

    @davidbewart
    2m2 minutes ago

    Matthew Guy has announced a 100 day plan to scrap Vic’s Renewable Energy Target.

    This puts 10,000 jobs and our climate under threat! #fuckingmuppet

  46. As for the Australian Greens and their addiction to the UBI, nothing could be more stupid.
    If GetUp! is going there, they are finished.

    GetUp’s Fight For The Future campaign promotes a Job Guarantee, not a Universal Basic Income.

Comments Page 18 of 25
1 … 17 18 19 … 25

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *