BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. Despite Turnbulls vandalism as comms minister, the completely gutlessness on climate change, many people continue to blow smoke up his arse without question.

  2. ‘Nicko says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 8:24 pm

    Despite Turnbulls vandalism as comms minister, the completely gutlessness on climate change, many people continue to blow smoke up his arse without question.’

    True, but when he blows the smoke back up they form perfect circular poetical inspirations for the Nobel Laureate for Literature.

  3. This is huge on Facebook……
    Anyone got info on it ?


    The Canberra Press Gallery has received word that yesterdays attack on Luke Foley was a litmus test for a planned attack on Bill Shorten, focusing entirely on the rape allegations of the past.

    The attack will be brutal and is intended to force Bill Shorten to resign and to be replaced by Anthony Albanese.

    We have messaged both with this information, the story is set to break at any time.

    Woodward and Bernstein.

  4. Slowly, Scotty is grudgingly coming clean in answering the question ‘Why did Malcolm Turnbull get ‘boned’?” Here is his latest attempt…

    “We live in a parliamentary democracy, we don’t live in a presidential system,” he said during a question and answer session after a Lifeline charity lunch in Sydney.

    “The Parliamentary Liberal Party decides who their leader is and the Parliamentary Liberal Party formed a decision that we wanted to make a change.”

    Mr Morrison also said that those within the party who had argued for a change in the leader had made “points about the need to better connect with the values and beliefs of Liberal, National and LNP members across the country.”

  5. The Turnbull foundation is a Private Ancillary Fund, which means that the only thing it can do with its money, apart from paying administration costs, is to make donations to other bodies that have a tax deductible charitable purpose. Reasonable administrative costs would be quite small. What this type of fund does for those who set it up is give them an immediate tax deduction for the money they donate to it, which can then be doled out over a number of years to worthy causes, which do not include things like the Liberal party. There will be a minimum amount, based on the size of the fund, that they have to pass on in each year. They can also invest the funds and use the income to make donations.

    I am no supporter of Turnbull, but going down the road of having a go at this arrangement is an unnecessary diversion. I’ve little doubt that the Foundation would be found to be properly run, because Turnbull is not completely stupid, just stupid in terms of politics.

  6. Hi Fess just arrived home today. The heat expedited the latter part of our trip. Oh and it was both upper and downer as well as across and back.

  7. Ausdavo

    If it is the black ops crap about Bill Shorten at a Young Labor camp in 1986, it is bullshit.

    Fully investigated by the police in 2014, who threw out the allegations.

  8. Sprocket et. al.

    The site is…

    Philip’s and Friends’ Political Analysis

    The police have been asked – claims are Lib Dirt Unit again.

  9. Nath means this:

    ‘Why, man, he doth bestride the narrow world
    Like a Colossus, and we petty men
    Walk under his huge legs and peep about
    To find ourselves dishonorable graves.’

  10. nath:

    [‘This Q&A is like a micro reenactment of his tenure as PM.’]

    While not intending to piss in your pocket, I feel compelled to agree with your assessment.

    Mal had the opportunity to call a spade a shovel, but failed misearablly, ingrained reactionaries still holding sway in the Tory Party. He, in keeping with Keating’s criitique, evidences he’s a penny bunger that fizzed.

  11. ‘ TheLoxionKasie
    2 years ago (edited)
    Just a bit of history on the music by Ladysmith Black Mambazo. The style is called “isicathamiya”, which is derived from the word “”ukucothoma”, which means to walk on your tip-toes. So, what would happen in the South African mines was that Zulu dancers wishing to dance and sing at night had to keep noise level downs. So they would sing and dance on the hush. Voices would be lowered and dance moves would also be softer. So they would go tippity-toe, tippity-toe, tippity-toe when dancing. The singing would also go “hush, hush, hush”, emphasizing harmony over loud sound. Over time, all this evolved from full-on and hushed-down Zulu dance and song to “Isicathamiya”. The style is also known as “ingoma-busuku”, which literally means the “dance of the night”, as this was done in the night, as already explained. A new genre was then born and there were frequent meets where bands would get together and compete for a prize. Prizes included all sort of things, including livestock! The bands were known by the names of the town where the founding members came from. They took pride in representing their hometowns. South Africa had a mingrant labour system, with young men leaving their hometowns to go work in gold mines in Johannesburg. Upon arrival, people would typically meet up with their homeboys in Johannesburg. In fact even the move to Johannesburg would come after the parents of the person hoping to move had been convinced that the person had someone to look after him in Johannesburg. The new arrivals would then be shown the ropes and from time to time, Ingoma-busuku bands would be formed so the men would have something to do on weekends. Practice would be during the week and competitions would be on weekends.There was some travelling involved, but the distances were manageable. Ladysmith Black Mambazo was formed in the same way at the behest of Joseph Shabalala, by young men coming fromt the town of Ladysmith (eMnambithi), in the province of KwaZulu-Natal. Only, they were eventually considered to be too good and they were not allowed to enter competitions! Go figure. ‘

  12. ‘BK says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 8:44 pm

    That sorry Fla episode of 2000 is etched into my brain!’

    The earth would, literally, be a cooler place right now.

  13. Confessions – hope you are right.

    Unfortunately it’s spreading like wildfire re new allegations.

    Heaps of defence for Bill fortunately.

  14. I am of the opinion nath thinks he is a legend in his own lunchbox. Such a fitting stage for one who projects himself in lower case. He can get up on his lunchbox and look down on the rest of us Lilliputians. 🙂

  15. “Unfortunately it’s spreading like wildfire re new allegations.”

    “Liberal” black ops? Facing defeat, they’ll fight like cornered rats. With the nation’s major media organisation acting as their propaganda arm, any allegations don’t have to be credible, let alone have a modicum of truth, to do damage.

  16. On my 5 minute perusal of social media just now I can report the the ‘negative chatter’ about Bill Shorten is no different to the usual crap. YoungLibs after Friday drinks, bots with IP addresses in the former CCCP, and deluded tossers with 26 followers are the sad cohort peddling away..

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