BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. antonbruckner11 says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 7:16 pm

    Nath – you really are a total moron. Turnbull “donated” his salary to his own charity as a tax dodge. The charity only has to spend 5% a year on charitable purposes and can pretty much blow the rest on whatever it likes (e.g donate money to the liberal party or rent a property leased from one of his dodgy companies). How an Australia PM got away with such a blatant scam is beyond me.
    Well I’m not a TOTAL moron, I wasn’t aware where he had donated his money, but once I saw where it is obvious that it could be dodgy. So perhaps partial moron?

  2. antonbruckner11

    Not to mention paying the hard working office holders . What luck Lucy and Truffle are office holders. What odds the offices rented belong to some entity associated with the Turnbulls ?

  3. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 7:19 pm

    Amazing, isn’t it, how nath is more than prepared to believe the best of a Liberal PM, but if Bill Shorten had done what Malcolm Turnbull did with his salary, ol’ nath would have been digging for the sinister motive.
    I was under no illusions that Malcolm is all about Malcolm. I just didn’t look into the details. Bill is all about Bill too. Just without the cash to pull off a similar job.

  4. Poroti

    German Physics ! There is your opening. Scotty would be unable to resist Fair Dinkum Physics.

    I love it!!! Every cloud has a silver lining 🙂

  5. How an Australia PM got away with such a blatant scam is beyond me.

    How such a bucket of s… could have been Australian PM is beyond me.

    are you completely unaware of the Australian media?

  6. Of course the Turnbull Foundation could be completely legit. Anyone remember that Simpsons episode where Bill Gates roughs up Homer and says ‘I didn’t get rich by cutting cheques’. Well turns out Gates is giving away just about everything.

    The Turnbull Foundation, at the initiative of Lucy Turnbull AO, Chief Commissioner of the Greater Sydney Commission, established the UNSW Sydney scholarship to help increase the number of women in leadership roles in the built environment industry.

    Worth $95,000, the scholarship supports professionals to undertake postgraduate study at UNSW’s Faculty of Built Environment and, importantly, includes participation in UNSW’s Australian Graduate School of Management (AGSM) Women in Leadership Program.

  7. I have known a Few people who have run small and slightly bigger businesses and they somehow had much more disposable income than me and paid way less tax than PAYG me.

    The serious rich like Turnbull must piss themselves laughing when the Tories go on about tax cuts being important to the economy.

    I reckon most of them, like the big corporations, hardly pay any.

  8. Turnbull Foundation donates a cool half a million to cancer centre.

    Last night, The Bright Alliance, a leading collaboration between the South Eastern Sydney Local Health District, Prince of Wales Hospital and University of New South Wales (UNSW), with support of The Prime Minister, The Hon. Malcolm Turnbull MP and Advisory Committee Chair Ms Lucy Hughes Turnbull AO, raised in excess of $3 million at its first fundraising event….
    Leading organisations: The Nelune Foundation; Huawei Australia; Optus; The Turnbull Foundation and Audi Australia donated $1 million, $500,000, $500,000, $500,000, and $100,000 respectively at the event held at Bondi’s Bucket List. Well-known faces from across Sydney’s business, entertainment and political community attended the event contributing to the funds raised on the night.

  9. KJ

    One way of capturing them in sufficient numbers to impact on the domestic population was to put a bit of honey at the bottom of a very large jar and leave it out overnight.

    Someone really ought to make a horror movie of the resultant heaving mass of cockroaches..

  10. Chasing down inter Company loans to net them out was always a very interesting exercise

    So doing was an exercise to ascertain, when you shook the Group by the ankles, what exactly fell out

    This went to the trail of distributions and other inter company payments – so you were not double adding revenue

    And the complexities were always for a reason (and not to just confuse a banker)

    Such an analysis of FAI saw me shut down their Standby Treasury Dealing Limits when the sign off was transferred to me

    Turnbull subsequently sold FAI to HIH – and FAI bought down HIH, consistent with my assessment a couple of years prior

    Turnbull received the “success fee” he did

    But HIH and the Australian public paying a levy to survive the Insurance Industry did not fare so well

    My experiences have always impacted on my view of Turnbull

    But he was a Merchant Banker – so think Shylock

    And on Monday night my wife said to me “Do you want to watch this?”

    I said “No”

    Some may hold Turnbull in high esteem – including Turnbull

    I do not, and never have

  11. I suppose when you look into your murky shit ridden soul and count the millions you’ve made walking over everyone in sight and your days on this planet are numbered you make the odd donation, maybe 1% of your total wealth. Turnbull, what a hero.

  12. Nancy Pelosi’s Pay-Go rule is economically illiterate. There is a vast amount of unused real resource capacity in the United States economy. The US Government needs to increase its fiscal deficit (also known as increasing the non-government sector’s surplus) in socially useful, environmentally sustainable, productivity-enhancing ways. A great place to start would be a universal federal Job Guarantee that makes an unconditional offer of $15 an hour employment to anyone who wants it. This would increase household spending power, enable private firms to expand production and hire more workers, increase the skill level of the workforce, and generate valuable output. The second priority should be to extend Medicare to everyone and abolish out-of-pocket fees for all health care (including pharmaceuticals). The third priority should be to abolish out-of-pocket fees for education and training at all levels (including very early childhood interventions). The fourth priority should be to build first rate public infrastructure.

    All of those initiatives would enhance America’s productive capacity and improve everybody’s quality of life.

    The House Democrats need to be led by a charismatic progressive. Nancy Pelosi is trapped in discredited neoliberal group think. This renders her ill-suited to the role of Speaker.

    Stephanie Kelton is one of America’s most perceptive economists. In this video she explains the fiscal policy options available to the United States Government.

  13. nath says:

    Maybe I’m not such a total moron. Hmmm.

    Reminds me of Goons(?) line “He’s not a complete idiot. There are still some bits missing” .

  14. So Bree, would you care to acquaint us with the circumstances where 3 people walking down a Melbourne CBD Street were killed by an advertising hoarding falling on them?

    And continue that onto the defence of the Company involved including the plea to admit guilt in a lower jurisdiction where lesser penalty could be applied

    Then the subsequent findings and admissions

    This was a Construction Company where the second generation Director was and is a personal friend of a Victorian politician known also to associate with undesirable characters dining on lobster washed down by Grange – and a donor to that political party, as are others in the Construction industry and who have had their wealth enhanced by rezonings by the very same politician

    Sometimes, just sometimes when you make rediculous statements you invite retribution and retribution based on facts

    That assessment applies to a few who “contribute” to this site, presenting abject and unsubstantiated nonsense

  15. Meanwhile Bill Shorten has never paid for a holiday in his life and enjoys the TAB marquee and loves some free champagne. I’m serious about an audit of the Kirribilli silver!

  16. Here’s a few more, An Aboriginal mentorship program, 3 30,000 scholarships at the US Studies Centre and the Sydney Dance Company.

    That sounds like Nicholoconomical GOSplanning.

    They are either going to run out of Aborigines or they will generate a surplus of people who can dance and who know more about the US than Trump does.

  17. Nath you have to read Independent Australia if you want a completely unbiased analysis of The Turnbull Foundation. All those donations to cancer research, children’s hospital, education etc are just a big tax dodge done with mirrors.

  18. “Some may hold Turnbull in high esteem – including Turnbull

    I do not, and never have”

    Me neither. He really is a Prime Minister without legacy.

    Except that Abbott would probably have lost a 2016 election (in the alternative universe held in October-November), so there is that. Plus Turnbull didn’t knight or shirtfront anyone. But other than that? Marriage Equality? In the alternative universe that would have been legislated by the Shorten Government early in 2017.

    So basically what Turnbull did was to prosecute Abbott’s and the Right’s agenda for another couple of years. Yet they have proved surprisingly ungrateful.

  19. I know it sounds strange but we like to donate, we can donate without suffering an iota of hardship – so we have not been tested in that moral space – and we do donate.
    Our faves are medical research, even though we are probably still going to die.

  20. Mavis Smith says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 8:11 pm


    An audit has been undertaken, with the result that there are no discrepancies.
    Thanks Mavis. Well there you go, a lesson for us all on jumping to conclusions.

  21. And from personal experience, I can confirm that Bill Shorten is quite the humble and unaffected politician. No tickets on himself, no bag carriers, no FIGJAM.

    Which is counter to what the Murdoch press, and their running dogs have tried to imply.

  22. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 8:14 pm

    Why so much shade being thrown at nath? If he wants to blow smoke up Malcolm’s arse he should be left in peace
    Yes I’m a real Turnbull backer:

    nath says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 9:00 pm

    This Q&A is like a micro reenactment of his tenure as PM. Much anticipation followed by gentlemanly waffling and nothing very exciting.

  23. Bob Dylan singing a Hazy Shade of Winter for Nath. I think he is signing the Russian version.

    The utube visuals are good, the backing is good, but the lyrics not so good.

    Paul Simon

    A Hazy Shade Of Winter”

    Time, time, time See what’s become of me
    While I looked around for my possibilities
    I was so hard to please
    But look around Leaves are brown
    And the sky is a hazy shade of winter
    Hear the Salvation Army band
    Down by the riverside’s
    Bound to be a better ride
    Than what you’ve got planned
    Carry your cup in your hand
    And look around you
    Leaves are brown, now
    And the sky is a hazy shade of winter
    Hang on to your hopes, my friend
    That’s an easy thing to say
    But if your hopes should pass away
    Simply pretend That you can build them again
    Look around
    The grass is high
    The fields are ripe
    It’s the springtime of my life
    Seasons change with the scenery
    Weaving time in a tapestry
    Won’t you stop and remember me
    At any convenient time?
    Funny how my memory skips
    Looking over manuscripts
    Of unpublished rhyme
    Drinking my vodka and lime
    I look around Leaves are brown
    And the sky is a hazy shade of winter
    Look around Leaves are brown
    There’s a patch of snow on the ground
    Look around Leaves are brown
    There’s a patch of snow on the ground

  24. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 8:19 pm

    And from personal experience, I can confirm that Bill Shorten is quite the humble and unaffected politician. No tickets on himself, no bag carriers, no FIGJAM.

    Which is counter to what the Murdoch press, and their running dogs have tried to imply.’

    I know one or two people who have spent a lot of time with Shorten. Amen to your comments.

  25. I think some are angry that with 5 minutes of research I busted a long cherished myth about the Turnbull Foundation. Sorry, I just like to know shit.

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