BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 36
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  2. Morning, PB.
    Nice to read all your comments on Mal. I only lasted 15 minutes and got tired of the repetition “How great I am”.
    Mal’s lost weight. He seemed shrunken inside his jacket. Not surprising in the circs.

    So glad that he speared Dutton, Cormann, Hunt & Ciobo, but not his efforts to build up Morrison.
    Just boring, on the whole.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Yet another mass shooting in the US, but the perpetrator was white, a former marine and with an Anglo name so it won’t be classed as terrorism. His gun was apparently bought legally. No doubt thoughts and prayers will abound.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/mass-shooting-reported-at-bar-in-thousand-oaks-california-20181108-p50ew6.html
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/08/california-borderline-mass-shooting-thousand-oaks
    Alexandra Smith looks at Luke Foley’s travails.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/luke-foley-resigns-as-nsw-labor-leader-following-explosive-allegations-20181108-p50euz.html
    Jacqui Maley says that the statement from ABC journalist Ashleigh Raper tells you everything you need to know about why women generally don’t report sexual harassment.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/once-again-the-woman-cleans-up-the-mess-20181108-p50esu.html
    Jacob Saulwick writes that after almost four years as state opposition leader, Luke Foley finally emerged with his own transport policy on Thursday – and held on to it for less than a day.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/after-four-years-as-opposition-leader-foley-finally-finds-a-policy-and-loses-the-job-20181108-p50evk.html
    Lisa Visentin gives us a picture of the man most likely to replace Foley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/he-s-finished-the-labor-mps-who-could-replace-foley-20181108-p50esj.html
    Jenna Price expresses why our justice system needs an overhaul, for the sake of women everywhere.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/our-justice-system-needs-an-overhaul-for-the-sake-of-women-everywhere-20181108-p50es3.html
    Michael Koziol reports that Morrison has shored up his minority government’s numbers in Parliament with a $234 million handout to Bob Katter’s electorate in return for the independent MP’s support on the floor of the House of Representatives.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-locks-in-bob-katter-s-support-with-234-million-water-investment-20181108-p50evs.html
    Phil Coorey writes that Scott Morrison had to behave more like an opposition leader with this week’s four day bus (and VIP jet) tour of Queensland, underscoring the urgency of his task between now and the impending election.
    https://outline.com/gSHBTX
    Michaela Whitbourn reports on the blast that Rush’s lawyer gave the Daily Telegraph in his closing submission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/reckless-cruel-irresponsibility-rush-barrister-slams-telegraph-20181108-p50eqa.html
    David Crowe makes the case to lift the stone-age secrecy shrouding political donations. And it’s a good one.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/time-to-lift-stone-age-secrecy-shrouding-political-donations-20181108-p50etc.html
    Neil McMahon looks at Turnbull’s Q and A performance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/madness-malcolm-turnbull-takes-whip-to-colleagues-over-leadership-coup-20181108-p50ewu.html
    Phil Coorey tells us that Malcolm Turnbull has excused Scott Morrison from helping orchestrate his downfall but said many senior members of the Coalition were bullies who posed an existential threat to the Liberal Party and who blew up the government for no good reason, jeopardising its re-election prospects.
    https://www.outline.com/KmFg8K
    In her piece on Q and A Michelle Grattan says Turnbull might have had a penchant for trams and trains with selfies but not the faux bus tour with cheesy videos.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-turnbull-tells-liberals-to-answer-that-unanswerable-question-106668
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has a corker of a new strategy to win back voters. Dave Donovan fair dinkum doubts it will work.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/editorial-excerpt-scott-morrison-the-fair-dinkum-self-marketing-man,12078
    Here’s Katharine Murphy’s take on Turnbull’s effort.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/08/qa-malcolm-turnbull-accuses-liberal-conservatives-of-blowing-up-his-government
    Despite the media working to discredit Barnaby Joyce, the man seems indestructible and likely to win back leadership of the Nationals, writes Ross Jones.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-skeletons-in-barnabys-closet,12079
    Experts have rubbished Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s claims that a proposed rollback of negative gearing will decimate the property market and send rents soaring.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2018/11/08/negative-gearing-claims-slammed/
    David Wroe reports that the chief of Australia’s navy has revealed that the first of the new fleet of submarines will likely not be fully operational until 2035 – three years after it is due to be in service – and that all six of the existing Collins Class submarines may need to have their life spans extended.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/future-submarines-will-need-lengthy-trials-navy-chief-20181108-p50es5.html
    According to the chair of the Coalition’s backbench energy committee, Craig Kelly, the RET’s penalty for committing grievous bodily harm to mining profits should be death by firing squad rather than its current slow death by hanging. Getting rid of the RET, so the logic goes, will provide more subsidies to the fossil fuel industry. Philip Soos investigates how this rent-seeking industry has captured the Coalition Government to loot the pockets of taxpayers. The irony is that by axing fossil fuel subsidies, we’d need never spend another brass razoo on renewables.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/as-planet-cooks-coalition-cooks-the-books-on-fossil-fuel-subsidies/
    Richo’s latest contribution is well worth a read.
    https://outline.com/xdxAUK
    Democrats in the House of Representatives have vowed to investigate Donald Trump’s removal of the attorney general, Jeff Sessions. This is a whole new ball game for Trump.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/08/democrats-investigate-jeff-sessions-firing-house
    Suzanne Moore tells us that the US press corps has to learn to stand up to Trump. She says Journalists are too complicit in the ritual degradations at the president’s press conferences. Why not just walk out?
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/08/us-press-corps-trump-journalists-press-conferences
    Professor of International Politics Scott Lucas says that after the midterm elections there are six key issues and he tells us what they mean for the country’s uncertain future.
    https://theconversation.com/us-midterm-results-six-key-issues-and-what-they-mean-for-the-countrys-uncertain-future-106467
    The big four banks have launched a strident defence of vertical integration, lending benchmarks and executive bonuses, in response to the Hayne royal commission interim report.
    https://outline.com/98jmJv
    In a very worrying contribution the London Telegraph says that Trump’s $2.1 trillion deal with the devil has failed,
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/trump-s-2-1-trillion-deal-with-the-devil-has-failed-20181108-p50eom.html
    Waleed Aly posits that although using race for campaigning gave Trump some success with the Senate this tactic has its limitations and alone it won’t be enough for provide success in 2020.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-limits-of-trump-s-politics-of-race-20181108-p50eq5.html
    John McDuling says that Paul Keating’s incendiary rhetoric may be entertaining, but it won’t be enough to stop the most significant media merger in decades from getting over the line.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/keating-s-attacks-on-nine-fairfax-are-really-just-noise-20181108-p50esv.html
    The Adelaide Advertiser warns of the damage the merger is likely to do to country newspapers.
    https://outline.com/RqN7cX
    Banks have told the Hayne royal commission that more rules to ensure their lending is responsible would make it harder for consumers and businesses to get loans and push borrowers into the hands of unregulated “shadow” banks.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/banks-warn-rules-will-push-consumers-into-unregulated-shadows-20181108-p50eu3.html
    Paul Karp reports that The health minister and the Australian Digital Health Agency have refused to give an update on how many Australians have opted out of the My Health Record system.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/09/greg-hunt-refuses-to-give-my-health-record-update-as-mps-push-to-extend-opt-out-period
    Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor’s crusade for lower household power prices for households hit another speed bump yesterday when the regulator approved increases in tariffs for Victorian distributors from January 1.
    https://outline.com/M2BSfZ
    James Adonis examines the obsession known as hyper-connectivity which, in contrast to its opposite, hypo-connectivity, attracts consequences such as the neglect of relationships, burnout, distraction from bigger priorities and the risk of becoming a mind-numbingly boring person with whom no one wants to hang out.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/are-smartphones-an-employer-led-addiction-20181108-p50epk.html
    Fairfax tells us that Australia will have to get used to handling a cascade of difficult issues with China, all the while striving to preserve an immensely valuable trade relationship. Amid such upheaval, it is worth asking whether Canberra’s new policies are well targeted to address the new challenges.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-must-tread-carefully-in-its-pacific-contest-with-china-20181108-p50etu.html
    A long contribution from Shane Warne on how to fix cricket in Australia.
    https://outline.com/D45tsj
    From inside jail Roger Rogerson makes a ply for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/roger-rogerson-wanted-ten-million-and-a-jet-jury-hears-20181108-p50evq.html
    Although Carnival Australia’s bid is worthy of consideration.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/08/great-barrier-reef-carnival-australia-fined-21m-after-dumping-28000-litres-of-waste

    Cartoon Corner

    Two beauties from David Rowe.


    On the campaign trail with Mark David.

    A couple from Peter Broelman on the political wedding of the year.


    Two from Paul Zanetti.


    From the US.


    Matt Golding hits the target.

    Glen Le Lievre and a helpful Abbott.

    David Pope on Morison’s motives in the South Pacific.
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/1868866108b599752ac155eae05c749deef4b55f
    Jon Kudelka and the ghost from Christmases past.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/620aad7bfcaddecf2671a12a0990b41b
    More in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-november-9-2018-20181108-h17o4z.html

  5. From the Guardian transcript of last nights Q&A Malcolm said,

    “I’m out of politics, and I will return to the business world, and I love nothing more than technology, I love new projects, I like new technology, and I love creating jobs.”

    This from the man who totally fekked the NBN

  6. How will Qld react to Scummos visit. Many of his incumbents are performing poorly in their electorate and are not looking good in the polls. They also voted for Dutton in the Turnbull debacle as did the LNP admin.
    Shorten has touring up north since the last election. Dozens of packed town hall meetings from all reports.
    The PM has been getting plenty of press coverage but it appears to be quantity rather than quality. Not many of the voting public showing up. Just yap yap yap Labor Yap Yap Yap Labor YAP YAP YAP.

  7. Trump’s new acting AG won’t recuse himself — and he won’t let Mueller subpoena the president: report

    A new report from the Washington Post claims that new acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker will not recuse himself from overseeing special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election — and he also will block the special counsel from subpoenaing the president which would eliminate the danger of the president perjuring himself under oath during an interview with the special counsel.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/trumps-new-acting-ag-wont-recuse-wont-let-mueller-subpoena-president-report/

  8. From the previous thread:

    taylormade @ #1946 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 10:51 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 7:35 pm
    Yes, you would think some people would take a dose of reality before they start their wowserish moralising, but no, we must all be as pure as the driven snow in thought and deed these days.
    Me? I prefer to leave these things up to the law, as opposed to thinking I am the last word in the law.

    What a load of crap. If Foley was a Liberal or a Green you would be leading the charge. We all remember how hard you went at Bhathal and then your embarrassing efforts in defence of Emma Husar.

    What a load of self-serving garbage. Though I expect no more from your spiteful offerings.

    The fact is I had evidence against Alex Bhathal from a long-standing member of her branch and former classmate of mine, which I linked to for proof. It provided comprehensive detail.

    Secondly, I was aghast at the treatment of Emma Husar by an ambitious and vindictive member of the Labor Party, plus those here who were prepared to take any opportunity presented to them, hypocrites who support The Greens, mainly, that was meted out to her and which the subsequent report found to be the case.

    Yet again, though, we have a known attacker of Labor coming here and using a current position of mine as a club to beat me over the head with, via some spurious rewriting of history.

    Get a life.

    And grow up and stop trying to put words in my mouth and ascribe actions to me that are false. It’s just another form of assault in my book.

  9. Former FBI agent says Sarah Sanders libeled CNN’s Jim Acosta with ‘doctored’ InfoWars video: ‘Your tweet is Exhibit A’

    A former FBI special agent says White House press secretary Sarah Sanders libeled CNN reporter Jim Acosta by sharing an altered video of his interaction with an intern during a presidential news conference.

    Asha Rangappa, a CNN contributor and former counterintelligence agent, said Sanders had met the standard of proof for libel — publishing a false statement to damage a person’s reputation.

    Sanders accused Acosta of “placing his hands on a young woman” during the incident, and then shared a video circulated by InfoWars editor Paul Joseph Watson that is briefly slowed down at one point to make Acosta’s actions look more aggressive.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/former-fbi-agent-says-sarah-sanders-libeled-cnns-jim-acosta-doctored-infowars-video-tweet-exhibit/

  10. Apparently Turnbull has a book in the works – saw a reference sometime ago about a release date prior to the coming election.

    lets hope so.

  11. BREAKING Sky News understand the Indonesian Govt is seeking a guarantee from Aust that it won’t move the Embassy in Israel – before it will finalise the FTA.

    It’s unlikely to be completed until there is an assurance that the embassy won’t be moved to Jerusalem.

  14. BK

    Thank you for the Dawn Patrol.

    IMO Australia cannot give a guarantee that it will not move its embassy to Jerusalem EVEN IF IT HAS NO INTENTION OF SO DOING.

    Another bloody Fake Dinkum mess.

  15. Cheryl Kernot
    ‏
    How dare @ScottMorrisonMP comment on Foley issue at all when his colleague Abetz wilfully & knowingly used the female journalist as a political pawn at ABC Estimates. #auspol

  16. Fake Dinkum paid $234 million to Katter to buy his Government for seven months?

    I assume that the argument is that it is in the national interest.

  18. Australia’s gun lobby is pouring money into a US-style state election campaign aimed at weakening Victoria’s firearms laws, according to anti-violence campaigners.

    Gun Safety Australia says the Shooting Industry Firearms Association (SIFA) is using tactics developed by the National Rifle Association to get pro-gun politicians into Victoria’s parliament to work against the state’s weapons control laws.

    The association insists the $200,000 campaign it is funding, called ‘Not Happy Dan’, asking voters to preference the Labor Party last, is simply a response to community concerns identified in its research.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/gun-lobby-spends-big-in-victorian-election-20181108-p50ev7.html

  19. phoenixRED @ #13 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:19 am

    Palmer Report‏Verified account @PalmerReport

    Bill Nelson is getting a recount, and Andrew Gillum is on the verge of getting one. The 2018 election results in Florida were highly suspicious, so a recount really could change the outcome

    This contribution from Matt on the Mid terms thread is very informative:

    And in more meaningful wins: Democrats took the House despite Republicans’ outrageous gerrymandering, voter-suppression, abuse of power (lookin’ at you, Brian Kemp!) and (I strongly suspect) outright vote-rigging in key States. This means that Mueller effectively cannot be fired anymore, since the Democratic House will just re-hire him under the House’s oversight powers. And that means that Trump’s day of reckoning continues to march toward him, slowly but inexorably, as the man who sent Manuel Noriega to prison and broke “Teflon Don” John Gotti closes in on his inner circle.

    Attempts by Republicans to stack the court in North Carolina failed by popular vote, while the Democratic candidate for the State Supreme Court ousted the Republican incumbent (the two Republicans on the ticket split the right-wing vote evenly), giving the Democrats a 5-2 majority – and near-certainty that the State Supreme Court will soon start striking down GOP dirty-tricks laws left, right and centre.

    Florida passed a (State) Constitutional amendment mandating automatic restoration of ex-convicts’ voting rights, making a key part of the GOP playbook there (deny the vote to ex-convicts in perpetuity, and use racist policing tactics to ensure that more blacks can’t vote than whites) history. There are going to be about 1.5 million newly-eligible voters in Florida in 2020, most of them African-American, and all of them painfully aware of which Party spent decades denying them their right to vote. Related to this, the highest GOP margin in Florida since 1988 is 380,000 votes (Bush, 2004) – so, if Democrats play their cards right, Florida’s about to permanently become a light-blue State, not a swing-State with a reddish tint.

    In answer to Michael A, above: See immediately above this line – I’m not worried about the Democrats’ ability to win Florida in 2020 at all.

    Along with Florida, Maryland, Michigan and Nevada all passed ballot measures to open access to the ballot box in future elections. This significantly narrows the scope of possible GOP voter-suppression efforts in at least two of those States (I doubt they could get much done in Maryland, and I’ve already discussed Florida above).

    Four States had anti-gerrymandering initiatives on the ballot – three of them have passed, with Utah’s ballot measure too close to call. This dramatically narrows the scope for Republican gerrymandering in Michigan, Ohio and Colorado going into 2020 reapportionment.

    The Rust Belt States that gave Trump narrow wins and a path to the White House have all turned on Trumpism – Democrats carried the Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania Senate elections easily, and the gubernatorial elections almost as easily, except in Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, Democrat Tony Evers only succeeded where the past three Democratic candidates failed, and ousted the revolting Gov. Scott Walker by a “mere” 1.2% margin – Walker had won the previous 3 elections with ~6% margins.

    Democrats campaigned hard down the ticket, taking seven (out of 38 up for election, less 9 they already held) Governors’ offices across the U.S. to hold 16 out of the 38 when the dust settled. Far less than a majority, but vastly better than before! They won in State legislative elections, gaining unified control of six additional State governments, and removing Republican unified control over another four States.

    Overall, even if it was heartbreaking watching the Senate move further into the red, Election Night was a very good one for Democrats – it just wasn’t perfect.

  21. In Washington overnight a split has seemingly emerged in the Conway household … this from the Guardian American Politics blog:

    “The husband of White House counselor Kellyanne Conway slammed Donald Trump’s appointment of an acting attorney general as unconstitutional in a new op-ed.

    “President Trump’s installation of Matthew Whitaker as acting attorney general of the United States after forcing the resignation of Jeff Sessions is unconstitutional. It’s illegal. And it means that anything Mr. Whitaker does, or tries to do, in that position is invalid,” George Conway and co-author Neal Katyal wrote in the New York Times.

    They argue the move violates the appointments clause of the constitution, which argues that a principal officer – meaning an official who reports only to the president – must be appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate.

    “It defies one of the explicit checks and balances set out in the Constitution, a provision designed to protect us all against the centralization of government power,” they wrote.

    When a vacancy occurs in the attorney generals seat, the constitution requires another person who has undergone Senate confirmation – like the deputy attorney general or the solicitor general – take over the post, they argue.”

  23. lizzie @ #18 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:34 am

    Australia’s gun lobby is pouring money into a US-style state election campaign aimed at weakening Victoria’s firearms laws, according to anti-violence campaigners.

    Gun Safety Australia says the Shooting Industry Firearms Association (SIFA) is using tactics developed by the National Rifle Association to get pro-gun politicians into Victoria’s parliament to work against the state’s weapons control laws.

    The association insists the $200,000 campaign it is funding, called ‘Not Happy Dan’, asking voters to preference the Labor Party last, is simply a response to community concerns identified in its research.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/gun-lobby-spends-big-in-victorian-election-20181108-p50ev7.html

    They tried to do the same thing in the last Queensland election, where there is only one House, by supporting KAP and PHON, but failed. Labor got their majority and no cross bench holding the balance of power over a weak government. Media Watch or 7.30 devoted a segment to analysing how they went about their devious work. Bob Katter’s brother-in-law is behind the funding of the campaigns too.

  24. @JohnWren1950
    1m1 minute ago

    Complete & utter lie from @JoshFrydenberg. Any cursory examination will see Labor’s policy is grandfathered meaning any CURRENT negatively geared investments are NOT affected. Please share widely as the media is complicit in the lie. #auspol #negativegearing @westaustralian

  25. lizzie @ #18 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:34 am

    Australia’s gun lobby is pouring money into a US-style state election campaign aimed at weakening Victoria’s firearms laws, according to anti-violence campaigners.

    Gun Safety Australia says the Shooting Industry Firearms Association (SIFA) is using tactics developed by the National Rifle Association to get pro-gun politicians into Victoria’s parliament to work against the state’s weapons control laws.

    The association insists the $200,000 campaign it is funding, called ‘Not Happy Dan’, asking voters to preference the Labor Party last, is simply a response to community concerns identified in its research.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/gun-lobby-spends-big-in-victorian-election-20181108-p50ev7.html

    Labor’s response is a no brainer. Andrews announces that labor have no intention of changing these Laws and out the people that are running the campaign.

    Andrew’s hasn’t attained office by being backwards about social or economic policy.

  26. dave @ #20 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:38 am

    lizzie @ #12 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:18 am

    dave

    If MT’s book follows the same formula as his Q&A appearance, it won’t be very interesting.

    Lizzie,

    Your probably right – but lets hope he has more to say in the book – if it eventuates.

    One thing that did come to light last night was that Turnbull fingered Greg the Lying Hunt, as well as Dutton, Abbott, Hastie and Cormann, as a major Conservative instigator of the coup to oust him.

    It would be interesting to know his links in Victoria to the Bastiaan Conservative Christian cabal in the Liberal Party and how that links in with Morrison’s own Conservative Christian wing in NSW, comprising, Alex Hawke, Lucy Wicks and others. That being the motivating factor to support Morrison. Which they did, if they couldn’t get Dutton up. Obviously. Despite Turnbull’s pathetic attempt to cover for Morrison last night on QandA.

  27. Shorten on Foley scandal: “The behaviour that Ashleigh described is clearly improper, inappropriate, cannot be tolerated. Modern society has no tolerance for the behaviour which she described. Now whatever the details, Ashleigh I think needs deserves our support & understanding”

  28. I’m going to pose this question here and also on the US Midterms thread:

    Given the fundamental change in the composition of the Democrat Congressional Caucus what are the chances of Nancy Pelosi being roled from her leadership position and hence from being the Democrat nominee for Speaker?

    She faced a contested ballot after 2016 and although she won comfortably in the end her low profile opponent still garnered significant support. Her leadership (and that of Schumer in the senate) has come under critics for being over,y opposed with Trumps failings, whilst virtually ignoring – let alone articulating – a Democrat alternative for the future. I dont think the young, progressive and mainly female congressional “freshmen” are likely to put up with that.

  29. lizzie @ #24 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:44 am

    @JohnWren1950
    1m1 minute ago

    Complete & utter lie from @JoshFrydenberg. Any cursory examination will see Labor’s policy is grandfathered meaning any CURRENT negatively geared investments are NOT affected. Please share widely as the media is complicit in the lie. #auspol #negativegearing @westaustralian

    Fake News! Really!

  30. Q. Why don’t the MSM question these fibs?
    A. Josh would simply walk away.

    Dr Eslake described the Treasurer’s claim that “Labor’s property tax will hit 1.3 million Australians who negative gear and every Australian with equity in their home” as “hyperbole”.

    “The question that needs to be asked is ‘For whom should we feel more sympathy?’

    “People with three to six investment properties, who will see the value of investments decline a bit?

    “Or the large number of predominantly younger and growing proportion of middle-aged people unable to get into the housing market because they’re faced with ever-increasing competition from investors?”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2018/11/08/negative-gearing-claims-slammed/

  31. Several people who have seen Turnbull in private since he was removed from the Liberal leadership say he feels intensely bitter about the leadership change. He sees himself as a victim of an unjust act.

    Wife Lucy, who in the past has moderated Turnbull’s most self-indulgent instincts, has been fuelling the emotional response, they say. Son Alex has reinforced the family victim status.

    Anger is natural. Spending an hour on a television justifying yourself and naming internal enemies is an act of personal and political self-indulgence. Turnbull is giving Liberal voters upset at his removal tacit approval to turn against the party.

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/malcolm-turnbull-brings-out-his-inner-narcissist-on-qa-20181108-h17ow9

  33. Teela Reid
    ‏@teelareid

    The greatest failure of the Turnbull government was to dismiss the #UluruStatement and @QandA failed to put a question to him! Disappointing. He broke the hearts of so many First Nations, but he will not break our fighting spirit.

  34. C@t

    Josh F fibs blatantly with a smile almost every time he has an audience. I cannot admire him, yet he has been touted as highly intelligent and a future leader. Perhaps he believes the publicity. He comes over to me as a spoilt rich kid.

  35. Morning all. Thanks BK for the dawn patrol, Rowe’s depictions of Trump are getting more and more grotesque!

    Meanwhile in Trumplandia the president’s words have real consequences.

    AxiosVerified account@axios
    2h2 hours ago
    A 39-year-old Arkansas man was arrested for making 40 calls to CNN over three days allegedly harassing and making death threats against an unidentified reporter, the Hollywood Reporter reports

    https://www.axios.com/man-arrested-for-threatening-calls-to-cnn-a17a41df-53da-4478-ae55-7efd06dc1b0f.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100

  36. After the loss of the seat, coalition MPs maintained Wentworth was a special case, and voters there were not representative of the broader population.

    And campaigning in Queensland this week, Morrison gave worried backbenchers more cause to squirm.

    Blitzing marginal seats in Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, Morrison morphed into a caricature somewhere between Barry McKenzie and Ted Bullpitt, cramming his face with pies and swigging XXXX Gold, while posting a series of cringe-worthy videos to social media in an attempt to speak directly to voters.

    Like a teenager who has just discovered Facebook, Morrison appeared guilty of over-sharing.

    He spoke to an FM radio station about his “first pash” and released a Spotify playlist of his favourite music, complete with a tune from Wa Wa Nee.

    The guitarist from that 1980s synth pop group, Steve Williams, later took to Twitter to disassociate himself from the Prime Minister.

    A staged bus tour up the Bruce Highway aboard the “ScoMo Express” emblazoned with the PM’s face came unstuck when local media twigged that Morrison was actually flying aboard a government jet for large parts of the trip.

    The theory behind the ScoMo blokey road trip was sound on paper: expunge the Turnbull Toff image that had reportedly landed like a Polly Waffle in a pool in those vital Queensland battleground seats.

    But in trying to turn the dial from Mr Harbourside Mansion to League-loving Everyman, Morrison went too far, risking accusations of fakery — maybe the greatest of political sins in the eyes of the Australian voter.

    https://thewest.com.au/opinion/nick-butterly-scomo-in-great-rush-to-connect-with-voters-ng-b881015310z?utm_campaign=share-icons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&tid=1541710244526

  37. lizzie @ #31 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:52 am

    Several people who have seen Turnbull in private since he was removed from the Liberal leadership say he feels intensely bitter about the leadership change. He sees himself as a victim of an unjust act.

    Wife Lucy, who in the past has moderated Turnbull’s most self-indulgent instincts, has been fuelling the emotional response, they say. Son Alex has reinforced the family victim status.

    Anger is natural. Spending an hour on a television justifying yourself and naming internal enemies is an act of personal and political self-indulgence. Turnbull is giving Liberal voters upset at his removal tacit approval to turn against the party.

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/malcolm-turnbull-brings-out-his-inner-narcissist-on-qa-20181108-h17ow9

    Interesting post. Turnbull spent some time talking about Wentworth, Indi and Mayo as all being natural Liberal constituencies with Members that are female, small L Liberals and representing a constituency that seems out of step with the mainstream Liberal party membership today.

    As the writer says he’s giving Lib voters the green light to vote elsewhere. Turnbull junior is taking a high profile. Prentice will be running in Queensland and Julia banks is hinting that she’ll run as an independent. I sense there may be the beginnings of a centrist party that will attempt to wrest control of the political agenda.

  38. Josh Frydenburg IS super intelligent. He still can’t be trusted though. His history since his involvement crafting WorkChoices cannot be denied.

  39. White House photography association slams Sarah Sanders for sharing ‘manipulated’ video of Acosta’s interaction with intern

    “The White House News Photographers Association is appalled to learn that the White House spokesperson may have shared a manipulated video of CNN reporter Jim Acosta’s interaction with a White House intern during a news conference,” Whitney Shefte, the organization’s president, wrote in a statement.

    “As visual journalists, we know that manipulating images is manipulating truth,” the statement continued. “It’s deceptive, dangerous and unethical.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/white-house-photography-association-slams-sarah-sanders-sharing-manipulated-video-acostas-interaction-intern/

  40. Pokie Bob Carr gets a huge kicking in the AFR for sucking up to China. It’s a great read.
    Did Malcolm mention who told him that calling a spill on the Tuesday morning would be a good idea (whereupon 5 of Sco-Mos troops ensured he was scuppered). That was the true judas.

  41. There are two stories. One is that the Helge Ingstad was moored at the dock. The under one was that it was under way.
    In both stories it was rammed by an oil tanker.
    The image below tends to support the story that it was under way before it was not under way: it has been run aground to stop it sinking.

  42. Just had another earthquake here. This one actually shook the whole house, my coffee was shaking on the table and the windows were rattling. Very scary.

  45. #BREAKING: CNN and CBS news crews outside the federal courthouse in DC where Rosentein’s attorney just made an appearance.

    Brian Krassenstein‏ @krassenstein · 14m14 minutes ago

    I’m not ready to say what’s going on yet but it appears as if Rod Rosenstein may be challenging the line of succession and Whitaker’s appointment overseeing the Mueller Probe. Stay tuned. This may be big news or it may be nothing.

  46. ‘Confessions says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 8:09 am

    Just had another earthquake here. This one actually shook the whole house, my coffee was shaking on the table and the windows were rattling. Very scary.’

    Wow.

  48. What’s interesting is Morrison’s ‘target audience’ – it certainly isn’t women, educated professionals, migrants, etc etc – it’s ocker blokes maaaate.

    I can’t see any particular reason to target that demographic. They’re not necessarily ON supporters, for example.

    One of the reasons (there were many) Mirabella lost Indi was that she decided early on that she was representing a seat consisting entirely of rednecks. Stereotyping your electorate might help hone your political message but you have to ensure the stereotype has some accuracy because doing so p*sses off everybody else.

  50. When you combine these observations:

    While the events of this week laid bare the catch-up job Morrison faces if he is to have a chance at the election, the government consoles itself with the unpopularity of Bill Shorten and the reluctance to hand a recovering economy to Labor.

    Needs to be combined in the mind with this(it’s about the Trumpian American economy but a similar scenario with our ultra low interest rates applies here):

    The task of taming America’s runaway entitlements will be that much harder by the time Trump has finished his handiwork, or impossible.

    It is one reason why former Fed chief Alan Greenspan calls Trump “the closest thing that America has produced to a Latin American-style populist”, the Caudillo del Norte. The other reason is Trump’s clientelism: how he coddles incumbent interests – coal, steel, cars, declining industries – that stand in the way of creative destruction.

    Trump’s policies flout the cardinal Keynesian rule – “the boom, not the slump is the right time for austerity” – without compensating gains on the supply-side front. Trump claimed a year ago that his “tax cuts and jobs act” would lead to a Reaganesque investment boom and would be “rocket fuel for the US economy”.

    It has done no such thing. Capex spending by business has been falling. Non-residential investment is the slowest in two years. The “happy hand-over” from fiscal fizz to a durable surge in productivity is absent.

    The cut in corporate tax rates from 35per cent to 21per cent has instead fed stock buybacks by US companies. Why would they invest a decade into an ageing boom, and in the midst of a global trade war?

    From The Telegraph, London article.

    Australia also has an Entitlement Culture. And a government that has been captured by the industries and demographics that want that Entitlement Culture to go on forever.

    It can’t. The Day of Reckoning will come, as surely as night follows day.

    So the choice becomes, do you vote for the party who will do the right thing wrt the Entitlement Culture, or do you vote for the party that will perpetuate the Entitlement Culture and take out the pain which will necessarily need to be thus inflicted, on the defenseless?

    That ‘recovering economy’ is only benefiting some. At the expense of others. We need to remember that whenever it’s brilliance is touted.

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