First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.
1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”
Exciting to think that the ALP are traveling this comfortably BEFORE they open the war chest.
Nice to read all your comments on Mal. I only lasted 15 minutes and got tired of the repetition “How great I am”.
Mal’s lost weight. He seemed shrunken inside his jacket. Not surprising in the circs.
So glad that he speared Dutton, Cormann, Hunt & Ciobo, but not his efforts to build up Morrison.
Just boring, on the whole.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Yet another mass shooting in the US, but the perpetrator was white, a former marine and with an Anglo name so it won’t be classed as terrorism. His gun was apparently bought legally. No doubt thoughts and prayers will abound.
Alexandra Smith looks at Luke Foley’s travails.
Jacqui Maley says that the statement from ABC journalist Ashleigh Raper tells you everything you need to know about why women generally don’t report sexual harassment.
Jacob Saulwick writes that after almost four years as state opposition leader, Luke Foley finally emerged with his own transport policy on Thursday – and held on to it for less than a day.
Lisa Visentin gives us a picture of the man most likely to replace Foley.
Jenna Price expresses why our justice system needs an overhaul, for the sake of women everywhere.
Michael Koziol reports that Morrison has shored up his minority government’s numbers in Parliament with a $234 million handout to Bob Katter’s electorate in return for the independent MP’s support on the floor of the House of Representatives.
Phil Coorey writes that Scott Morrison had to behave more like an opposition leader with this week’s four day bus (and VIP jet) tour of Queensland, underscoring the urgency of his task between now and the impending election.
Michaela Whitbourn reports on the blast that Rush’s lawyer gave the Daily Telegraph in his closing submission.
David Crowe makes the case to lift the stone-age secrecy shrouding political donations. And it’s a good one.
Neil McMahon looks at Turnbull’s Q and A performance.
Phil Coorey tells us that Malcolm Turnbull has excused Scott Morrison from helping orchestrate his downfall but said many senior members of the Coalition were bullies who posed an existential threat to the Liberal Party and who blew up the government for no good reason, jeopardising its re-election prospects.
In her piece on Q and A Michelle Grattan says Turnbull might have had a penchant for trams and trains with selfies but not the faux bus tour with cheesy videos.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has a corker of a new strategy to win back voters. Dave Donovan fair dinkum doubts it will work.
Here’s Katharine Murphy’s take on Turnbull’s effort.
Despite the media working to discredit Barnaby Joyce, the man seems indestructible and likely to win back leadership of the Nationals, writes Ross Jones.
Experts have rubbished Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s claims that a proposed rollback of negative gearing will decimate the property market and send rents soaring.
David Wroe reports that the chief of Australia’s navy has revealed that the first of the new fleet of submarines will likely not be fully operational until 2035 – three years after it is due to be in service – and that all six of the existing Collins Class submarines may need to have their life spans extended.
According to the chair of the Coalition’s backbench energy committee, Craig Kelly, the RET’s penalty for committing grievous bodily harm to mining profits should be death by firing squad rather than its current slow death by hanging. Getting rid of the RET, so the logic goes, will provide more subsidies to the fossil fuel industry. Philip Soos investigates how this rent-seeking industry has captured the Coalition Government to loot the pockets of taxpayers. The irony is that by axing fossil fuel subsidies, we’d need never spend another brass razoo on renewables.
Richo’s latest contribution is well worth a read.
Democrats in the House of Representatives have vowed to investigate Donald Trump’s removal of the attorney general, Jeff Sessions. This is a whole new ball game for Trump.
Suzanne Moore tells us that the US press corps has to learn to stand up to Trump. She says Journalists are too complicit in the ritual degradations at the president’s press conferences. Why not just walk out?
Professor of International Politics Scott Lucas says that after the midterm elections there are six key issues and he tells us what they mean for the country’s uncertain future.
The big four banks have launched a strident defence of vertical integration, lending benchmarks and executive bonuses, in response to the Hayne royal commission interim report.
In a very worrying contribution the London Telegraph says that Trump’s $2.1 trillion deal with the devil has failed,
Waleed Aly posits that although using race for campaigning gave Trump some success with the Senate this tactic has its limitations and alone it won’t be enough for provide success in 2020.
John McDuling says that Paul Keating’s incendiary rhetoric may be entertaining, but it won’t be enough to stop the most significant media merger in decades from getting over the line.
The Adelaide Advertiser warns of the damage the merger is likely to do to country newspapers.
Banks have told the Hayne royal commission that more rules to ensure their lending is responsible would make it harder for consumers and businesses to get loans and push borrowers into the hands of unregulated “shadow” banks.
Paul Karp reports that The health minister and the Australian Digital Health Agency have refused to give an update on how many Australians have opted out of the My Health Record system.
Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor’s crusade for lower household power prices for households hit another speed bump yesterday when the regulator approved increases in tariffs for Victorian distributors from January 1.
James Adonis examines the obsession known as hyper-connectivity which, in contrast to its opposite, hypo-connectivity, attracts consequences such as the neglect of relationships, burnout, distraction from bigger priorities and the risk of becoming a mind-numbingly boring person with whom no one wants to hang out.
Fairfax tells us that Australia will have to get used to handling a cascade of difficult issues with China, all the while striving to preserve an immensely valuable trade relationship. Amid such upheaval, it is worth asking whether Canberra’s new policies are well targeted to address the new challenges.
A long contribution from Shane Warne on how to fix cricket in Australia.
From inside jail Roger Rogerson makes a ply for “Arsehole of the Week”.
Although Carnival Australia’s bid is worthy of consideration.
Two beauties from David Rowe.
On the campaign trail with Mark David.
A couple from Peter Broelman on the political wedding of the year.
Two from Paul Zanetti.
From the US.
Matt Golding hits the target.
Glen Le Lievre and a helpful Abbott.
David Pope on Morison’s motives in the South Pacific.
Jon Kudelka and the ghost from Christmases past.
More in here.
Mals last chance to amount to something and he fizzed. How surprisement!
From the Guardian transcript of last nights Q&A Malcolm said,
“I’m out of politics, and I will return to the business world, and I love nothing more than technology, I love new projects, I like new technology, and I love creating jobs.”
This from the man who totally fekked the NBN
How will Qld react to Scummos visit. Many of his incumbents are performing poorly in their electorate and are not looking good in the polls. They also voted for Dutton in the Turnbull debacle as did the LNP admin.
Shorten has touring up north since the last election. Dozens of packed town hall meetings from all reports.
The PM has been getting plenty of press coverage but it appears to be quantity rather than quality. Not many of the voting public showing up. Just yap yap yap Labor Yap Yap Yap Labor YAP YAP YAP.
Trump’s new acting AG won’t recuse himself — and he won’t let Mueller subpoena the president: report
A new report from the Washington Post claims that new acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker will not recuse himself from overseeing special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election — and he also will block the special counsel from subpoenaing the president which would eliminate the danger of the president perjuring himself under oath during an interview with the special counsel.
From the previous thread:
taylormade @ #1946 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 10:51 pm
What a load of self-serving garbage. Though I expect no more from your spiteful offerings.
The fact is I had evidence against Alex Bhathal from a long-standing member of her branch and former classmate of mine, which I linked to for proof. It provided comprehensive detail.
Secondly, I was aghast at the treatment of Emma Husar by an ambitious and vindictive member of the Labor Party, plus those here who were prepared to take any opportunity presented to them, hypocrites who support The Greens, mainly, that was meted out to her and which the subsequent report found to be the case.
Yet again, though, we have a known attacker of Labor coming here and using a current position of mine as a club to beat me over the head with, via some spurious rewriting of history.
Get a life.
And grow up and stop trying to put words in my mouth and ascribe actions to me that are false. It’s just another form of assault in my book.
Former FBI agent says Sarah Sanders libeled CNN’s Jim Acosta with ‘doctored’ InfoWars video: ‘Your tweet is Exhibit A’
A former FBI special agent says White House press secretary Sarah Sanders libeled CNN reporter Jim Acosta by sharing an altered video of his interaction with an intern during a presidential news conference.
Asha Rangappa, a CNN contributor and former counterintelligence agent, said Sanders had met the standard of proof for libel — publishing a false statement to damage a person’s reputation.
Sanders accused Acosta of “placing his hands on a young woman” during the incident, and then shared a video circulated by InfoWars editor Paul Joseph Watson that is briefly slowed down at one point to make Acosta’s actions look more aggressive.
Apparently Turnbull has a book in the works – saw a reference sometime ago about a release date prior to the coming election.
lets hope so.
BREAKING Sky News understand the Indonesian Govt is seeking a guarantee from Aust that it won’t move the Embassy in Israel – before it will finalise the FTA.
It’s unlikely to be completed until there is an assurance that the embassy won’t be moved to Jerusalem.
If MT’s book follows the same formula as his Q&A appearance, it won’t be very interesting.
Palmer ReportVerified account @PalmerReport
Bill Nelson is getting a recount, and Andrew Gillum is on the verge of getting one. The 2018 election results in Florida were highly suspicious, so a recount really could change the outcome
Florida governor’s race faces recount as Senate race gets even tighter
Thank you for the Dawn Patrol.
IMO Australia cannot give a guarantee that it will not move its embassy to Jerusalem EVEN IF IT HAS NO INTENTION OF SO DOING.
Another bloody Fake Dinkum mess.
Fake Dinkum paid $234 million to Katter to buy his Government for seven months?
I assume that the argument is that it is in the national interest.
Totally dishonest Trump regime.
phoenixRED @ #13 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:19 am
This contribution from Matt on the Mid terms thread is very informative:
lizzie @ #12 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:18 am
Your probably right – but lets hope he has more to say in the book – if it eventuates.
In Washington overnight a split has seemingly emerged in the Conway household … this from the Guardian American Politics blog:
“The husband of White House counselor Kellyanne Conway slammed Donald Trump’s appointment of an acting attorney general as unconstitutional in a new op-ed.
“President Trump’s installation of Matthew Whitaker as acting attorney general of the United States after forcing the resignation of Jeff Sessions is unconstitutional. It’s illegal. And it means that anything Mr. Whitaker does, or tries to do, in that position is invalid,” George Conway and co-author Neal Katyal wrote in the New York Times.
They argue the move violates the appointments clause of the constitution, which argues that a principal officer – meaning an official who reports only to the president – must be appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate.
“It defies one of the explicit checks and balances set out in the Constitution, a provision designed to protect us all against the centralization of government power,” they wrote.
When a vacancy occurs in the attorney generals seat, the constitution requires another person who has undergone Senate confirmation – like the deputy attorney general or the solicitor general – take over the post, they argue.”
Here’s a reason to show why Labor and Bill Shorten are in a commanding position atm. They focus on issues that are relevant to all Australians.
lizzie @ #18 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:34 am
They tried to do the same thing in the last Queensland election, where there is only one House, by supporting KAP and PHON, but failed. Labor got their majority and no cross bench holding the balance of power over a weak government. Media Watch or 7.30 devoted a segment to analysing how they went about their devious work. Bob Katter’s brother-in-law is behind the funding of the campaigns too.
lizzie @ #18 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:34 am
Labor’s response is a no brainer. Andrews announces that labor have no intention of changing these Laws and out the people that are running the campaign.
Andrew’s hasn’t attained office by being backwards about social or economic policy.
dave @ #20 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:38 am
One thing that did come to light last night was that Turnbull fingered Greg the Lying Hunt, as well as Dutton, Abbott, Hastie and Cormann, as a major Conservative instigator of the coup to oust him.
It would be interesting to know his links in Victoria to the Bastiaan Conservative Christian cabal in the Liberal Party and how that links in with Morrison’s own Conservative Christian wing in NSW, comprising, Alex Hawke, Lucy Wicks and others. That being the motivating factor to support Morrison. Which they did, if they couldn’t get Dutton up. Obviously. Despite Turnbull’s pathetic attempt to cover for Morrison last night on QandA.
Shorten on Foley scandal: “The behaviour that Ashleigh described is clearly improper, inappropriate, cannot be tolerated. Modern society has no tolerance for the behaviour which she described. Now whatever the details, Ashleigh I think needs deserves our support & understanding”
I’m going to pose this question here and also on the US Midterms thread:
Given the fundamental change in the composition of the Democrat Congressional Caucus what are the chances of Nancy Pelosi being roled from her leadership position and hence from being the Democrat nominee for Speaker?
She faced a contested ballot after 2016 and although she won comfortably in the end her low profile opponent still garnered significant support. Her leadership (and that of Schumer in the senate) has come under critics for being over,y opposed with Trumps failings, whilst virtually ignoring – let alone articulating – a Democrat alternative for the future. I dont think the young, progressive and mainly female congressional “freshmen” are likely to put up with that.
lizzie @ #24 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:44 am
Fake News! Really!
Q. Why don’t the MSM question these fibs?
A. Josh would simply walk away.
Labor should refer to it as ‘Josh Frydenburg’s Fake Views’. 🙂
Josh F fibs blatantly with a smile almost every time he has an audience. I cannot admire him, yet he has been touted as highly intelligent and a future leader. Perhaps he believes the publicity. He comes over to me as a spoilt rich kid.
Morning all. Thanks BK for the dawn patrol, Rowe’s depictions of Trump are getting more and more grotesque!
Meanwhile in Trumplandia the president’s words have real consequences.
lizzie @ #31 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:52 am
Interesting post. Turnbull spent some time talking about Wentworth, Indi and Mayo as all being natural Liberal constituencies with Members that are female, small L Liberals and representing a constituency that seems out of step with the mainstream Liberal party membership today.
As the writer says he’s giving Lib voters the green light to vote elsewhere. Turnbull junior is taking a high profile. Prentice will be running in Queensland and Julia banks is hinting that she’ll run as an independent. I sense there may be the beginnings of a centrist party that will attempt to wrest control of the political agenda.
Josh Frydenburg IS super intelligent. He still can’t be trusted though. His history since his involvement crafting WorkChoices cannot be denied.
White House photography association slams Sarah Sanders for sharing ‘manipulated’ video of Acosta’s interaction with intern
“The White House News Photographers Association is appalled to learn that the White House spokesperson may have shared a manipulated video of CNN reporter Jim Acosta’s interaction with a White House intern during a news conference,” Whitney Shefte, the organization’s president, wrote in a statement.
“As visual journalists, we know that manipulating images is manipulating truth,” the statement continued. “It’s deceptive, dangerous and unethical.”
Pokie Bob Carr gets a huge kicking in the AFR for sucking up to China. It’s a great read.
Did Malcolm mention who told him that calling a spill on the Tuesday morning would be a good idea (whereupon 5 of Sco-Mos troops ensured he was scuppered). That was the true judas.
There are two stories. One is that the Helge Ingstad was moored at the dock. The under one was that it was under way.
In both stories it was rammed by an oil tanker.
The image below tends to support the story that it was under way before it was not under way: it has been run aground to stop it sinking.
Just had another earthquake here. This one actually shook the whole house, my coffee was shaking on the table and the windows were rattling. Very scary.
Felt that one in Perth too.
I DO like Bludger Track with a ’54’ in front of it.
#BREAKING: CNN and CBS news crews outside the federal courthouse in DC where Rosentein’s attorney just made an appearance.
Brian Krassenstein @krassenstein · 14m14 minutes ago
I’m not ready to say what’s going on yet but it appears as if Rod Rosenstein may be challenging the line of succession and Whitaker’s appointment overseeing the Mueller Probe. Stay tuned. This may be big news or it may be nothing.
Friday, November 9, 2018 at 8:09 am
Just had another earthquake here. This one actually shook the whole house, my coffee was shaking on the table and the windows were rattling. Very scary.’
Roger Miller @ #43 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 5:10 am
It seemed to go forever. OH was in the bathroom and he said he thought it was wind starting up.
What’s interesting is Morrison’s ‘target audience’ – it certainly isn’t women, educated professionals, migrants, etc etc – it’s ocker blokes maaaate.
I can’t see any particular reason to target that demographic. They’re not necessarily ON supporters, for example.
One of the reasons (there were many) Mirabella lost Indi was that she decided early on that she was representing a seat consisting entirely of rednecks. Stereotyping your electorate might help hone your political message but you have to ensure the stereotype has some accuracy because doing so p*sses off everybody else.
Last one I felt up here was a few seconds. This one I felt for maybe 30.
When you combine these observations:
Needs to be combined in the mind with this(it’s about the Trumpian American economy but a similar scenario with our ultra low interest rates applies here):
From The Telegraph, London article.
Australia also has an Entitlement Culture. And a government that has been captured by the industries and demographics that want that Entitlement Culture to go on forever.
It can’t. The Day of Reckoning will come, as surely as night follows day.
So the choice becomes, do you vote for the party who will do the right thing wrt the Entitlement Culture, or do you vote for the party that will perpetuate the Entitlement Culture and take out the pain which will necessarily need to be thus inflicted, on the defenseless?
That ‘recovering economy’ is only benefiting some. At the expense of others. We need to remember that whenever it’s brilliance is touted.