BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 36
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  1. dave says:

    Apparently Turnbull has a book in the works – saw a reference sometime ago about a release date prior to the coming election.

    Sadly there has been a slight hitch 🙂

  2. Andrew at 7:48: I heard one suggestion that Nancy Pelosi would become Speaker in January and then be gracefully retired after 12 months or so in the run up to 2020. Not sure how informed an opinion it was, nor of the mechanism that would bring that about.

  3. Andrew_Earlwood

    I think what will happen is Nancy Pelosi will be elected Speaker, but there will be a backroom arrangement that she will step down down some time in 2019.

    I am still stunned by the shooting at Thousand Oaks – a place I would describe as like Woodend (Vic), Armidale (NSW) or Victor Harbor (SA). I wonder if this had happened two nights earlier, on the eve of the mid-terms, whether it would have changed the vote in any way.

  5. It is timely to reflect on Frydenberg’s achievements as Minister for Energy and the Environment:

    1 He gutted marine parks
    2 He gutted the EPBC Act
    3 He delivered no energy policy
    4. He delivered no emissions policy
    5. He increased sovereign risk in the energy investment space
    6. He delivered a half dead Reef
    7. He increased list of vulnerable and endangered species. He achieved the world’s first global warming extinction.
    8. He increased emissions in transport space
    9. He delivered record hot temperatures
    10. He delivered record low rainfall
    11. Her turned tens of thousands of farmers into Global Warming beggars.
    12. He enabled POMS to smash Tassie’s Pacific Oyster industry
    13. He delivered 100 km of dead kelp beds along the WA coast
    14. He delivered 2500 square kilometers of mangroves in the Gulf.
    15. He enabled Kosciusko National Park to be turned into a horse paddock.

  6. I am still stunned by the shooting at Thousand Oaks – a place I would describe as like Woodend (Vic), Armidale (NSW) or Victor Harbor (SA). I wonder if this had happened two nights earlier, on the eve of the mid-terms, whether it would have changed the vote in any way.

    Apparently the murderer was known to police although not sure exactly how. A policeman I saw interviewed said they’d had several incidents with him in the past.

  8. Christine Blasey Ford Is Still Being Put Through Hell

    “Justice Kavanaugh ascended to the Supreme Court, but the threats to Dr. Ford continue,” Ford’s lawyers, Debra Katz, Lisa Banks, and Michael Bromwich, told NPR in a statement.

    As of last month, Ford has had to move four times due to harassment, NPR reports. Her attorneys further explained that she has not been able to return to her job at Palo Alto University

    https://www.thecut.com/2018/11/kavanaugh-accuser-christine-blasey-ford-harassment.html

  11. From Wiki

    “Semper Fidelis” signifies the dedication that individual Marines have to “Corps and country,” and to their fellow Marines. It is a way of life. Said one former Marine, “It is not negotiable. It is not relative, but absolute…Marines pride themselves on their mission and steadfast dedication to accomplish it.”

    (The source of the above text is The National Museum of the Marine Corps and Heritage Center.)

    That is odd. It does not say anything about mowing down a bar full of young folk.

  12. Did Mal mention the NBN as one of his greatest achievements? I don’t think so.

    THE BOSS of the ACCC, Rod Sims, has told The Australian:

    ‘Its recent dealings with the retail telcos has highlighted a weakness with the fibre-to-the-node (FTTN) access technology.’

    For numerous broadband experts, not to mention millions of hapless NBN customers, this might be seen as a classic “no shit, Sherlock” moment. However, it is probably the most significant recent development in the long-running saga that began with Labor’s 21st century fibre-based national broadband network, only to end in tears for so many when former Prime Minister Tony Abbott ordered his heavily-wedged communications minister, Malcolm Turnbull, to “destroy the NBN”.

    The way we’re heading now, whoever wins the next federal election will have to deal with our all-time biggest national infrastructure debacle. NBN Co will soon owe the Government around $19 billion it’s in the process of drawing down. It will have to find more funding for the inevitable replacement of FTTN, which will increasingly be seen to be incapable of meeting the needs of most of us.

    Nobody knows how much it will cost to rip out the copper network, but we’re talking many billions of dollars. According to Internet Australia, FTTN will need to be replaced within five to ten years, perhaps sooner if the level of customer complaints from those stuck with this inferior technology continues to rise.

    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/accc-intervenes-in-troubled-nbn-project,12082

  16. Apparently the murderer was known to police although not sure exactly how. A policeman I saw interviewed said they’d had several incidents with him in the past.

    And did naff all about him, apparently. Except maybe thank him for his service every time he got onto a plane.

    And doesn’t this incident just point to the dangerous nature of glorifying these individuals?

  17. Confessions says: Friday, November 9, 2018 at 8:26 am

    phoenixRed:

    I was wondering how you felt about the midterm elections? Perhaps you missed my comment from yesterday.

    *****************************************************

    Sorry I missed your comment Confessions – I was trying to follow the 2 threads running as well as doing a bit of child minding.

    Obviously there were many positives and some negatives – feel for Beto in Texas and there is still some shaking out to be done in the festering electoral sore that is Florida …

    America is a complex and wild place and obviously about half the country are still prepared to vote for that adulterous, philandering, narcissist, meglomaniacal, con artist buffoon as well his the teams of shysters like McConnell, Graham etc ……. something beyond my mental comprehension

  18. Pheonix
    It is way less than half. In Australia if the electorate was tipped by that much it would be a landslide of staggering proportions.

  19. I think it is a case of what do you do when police know of individuals?

    You can’t just arrest anyone who you think might be dangerous.

    I don’t think it has anything to do with glorifying veterans.

  22. Roger Miller says: Friday, November 9, 2018 at 8:50 am

    Pheonix
    It is way less than half. In Australia if the electorate was tipped by that much it would be a landslide of staggering proportions

    ******************************************************

    Hi Roger – I guess I meant to say that of the around 60 % of registered to vote actually did ……. and the screwy electoral process and machines, gerrymandering, voter suppression etc etc …….. that the Dems won the popular vote in both races but …..

    Among the most eye-catching was a statistic showing Democrats led Republicans by more than 12 million votes in Senate races, and yet still suffered losses on the night and failed to win a majority of seats in the chamber.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/08/democrats-republicans-senate-majority-minority-rule

  23. Confessions says: Friday, November 9, 2018 at 8:54 am

    phoenixRed:

    Btw when you have a spare hour you might enjoy this interview with Rick Wilson if you haven’t already seen it.

    Dark Politics in the Age of Trump

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SI1kLt8xpU

    ************************************************

    Thanks Confessions – I have not seen that – will watch when I can squeeze it in

    I loved Ricks comment the other day that Trump publically supported 31 candidates – and that 28 of them lost their seat !!! …. so much winning – ETTD continues to put the kiss of death on anyone or anything that hitches their wagon to Trump

  24. Seismologists know that how long an earthquake lasts is a decent proxy for its magnitude. The 1989 earthquake in Loma Prieta, California, which killed sixty-three people and caused six billion dollars’ worth of damage, lasted about fifteen seconds and had a magnitude of 6.9. A thirty-second earthquake generally has a magnitude in the mid-sevens. A minute-long quake is in the high sevens, a two-minute quake has entered the eights, and a three-minute quake is in the high eights. By four minutes, an earthquake has hit magnitude 9.0.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

  25. Clearly the Libs have seen how successful ALP’s ground campaigns are and decided to try and emulate it (which is advertising’s usual trick – see success and copy it) but the ALP tactics are completely foreign to the Libs and their ‘attitiude’ to campaigning so it is coming across as crass.

    Won’t end well. Just saw two guests on ABC dropping heaps of crap on Scomo about it – riciculing him …. and we all know that ridicule is the WORST possible response from the electorate.

  26. Larwood

    No.

    At best Labor will be hoping to have multiple options for passing bills the Libs oppose. Ie the greens only or a combination of minors without the greens.

    Needing the greens AND extras from the x-bench is what Labor will be hoping to avoid.

  27. Larwood @ #71 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 7:58 am

    Obviously the calculation is very different, but at a guess would Labor control the senate on numbers like this?

    If Australia selected had just 12 senators elected for 6 years in two year cycles, I think we could have a senate that sometime swung 100% to a particular party, especially without preferential voting.

    For example Qld would always return two LNP as would WA. NSW and Victoria would probably generally return a labor person but not always – so assume 3 ALP and 1 LNP. Tasmania would return 1 ALP and an independent, SA probably 1 Lib and 1 lab

    So you would have a senate of 12 that would be 6 LNP, 5 ALP and an Independent

  28. ”
    Yet another mass shooting in the US, but the perpetrator was white, a former marine and with an Anglo name so it won’t be classed as terrorism. His gun was apparently bought legally. No doubt thoughts and prayers will abound.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/mass-shooting-reported-at-bar-in-thousand-oaks-california-20181108-p50ew6.html
    ”
    Of course it is not terrorism, it is run-of-the-mill mass shooting. The county where shooting happened it appears was declared as 3rd safest in US.

  29. Jaeger:

    Thanks for that. Geoscience Aust shows there have been around a dozen earthquakes in the Lake Muir area over the last week at least. I’d love to know why. Why that area and why so frequently?

  30. Barry Cassidy discussing politics this week to award wooden spoon mentioned that a brothel owner( a pimp), who died 1 month ago but was on Ballot, has won from Nevada on Republican ticket. He was a Trump supporter & no wonder about that.

  31. Trump counting on Kavanaugh to OK his new round of controversial executive orders: report

    White House insiders admit that Donald Trump expects his administration will be sued over its latest immigration policy — but with Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, he expects to win those suits.

    Two senior administration officials that spoke to NBC News said that “of the [immigration] measures most likely to be approved by the president, all were likely to lead to a lawsuit.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/trump-counting-kavanaugh-ok-new-round-controversial-executive-orders-report/

  32. Sorry I meant to add that although mostly you would something close to 50/50, in a bad year for labor you could have a fall to 4/8 and if there were two bad years it could fall to 2/10

  34. Republicans Are Scared In Florida As Sean Hannity Calls Recount An Illegal Democrat Plot

    Trump propaganda minister Sean Hannity showed how scared the regime is in Florida when he attacked the recount as an illegal Democratic plot.

    Hannity said via Media Matters:

    I want to start in the state of Florida because it looks like the typical, predictable, Democratic tactics of whatever it takes to win might be going on as it relates to the election of Rick Scott as the new senator from Florida and of course Ron DeSantis the new governor of Florida.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/11/08/republicans-are-scared-in-florida-as-sean-hannity-calls-recount-an-illegal-democrat-plot.html

  36. Catprog @ #69 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 8:52 am

    I think it is a case of what do you do when police know of individuals?

    You can’t just arrest anyone who you think might be dangerous.

    I don’t think it has anything to do with glorifying veterans.

    What it has to do with is the mindset created when you put them up on a pedestal. Thus you tend to ignore red flags that you otherwise might do something about. Thus you, in your mind, tend to ascribe noble emotions and self control, that they have been taught in military school, you think, and thus discount their potential for bad acts. Until it’s too late.

  37. phoenixRED @ #84 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 9:24 am

    Republicans Are Scared In Florida As Sean Hannity Calls Recount An Illegal Democrat Plot

    Trump propaganda minister Sean Hannity showed how scared the regime is in Florida when he attacked the recount as an illegal Democratic plot.

    Hannity said via Media Matters:

    I want to start in the state of Florida because it looks like the typical, predictable, Democratic tactics of whatever it takes to win might be going on as it relates to the election of Rick Scott as the new senator from Florida and of course Ron DeSantis the new governor of Florida.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/11/08/republicans-are-scared-in-florida-as-sean-hannity-calls-recount-an-illegal-democrat-plot.html

    That, from the party, and with his red tie worn on the stage with Trump the day before the Mid Terms Hannity is now OF the Republican Party, who shoe-horned George W.Bush into the White House via a Recount in FLORIDA!

  38. ”
    phoenixRED says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 8:43 am
    America is a complex and wild place and obviously about half the country are still prepared to vote for that adulterous, philandering, narcissist, meglomaniacal, con artist buffoon as well his the teams of shysters like McConnell, Graham etc ……. something beyond my mental comprehension
    ”
    The kind of people who voted for Trump & his team were hiding in plain sight for 1/2 century since Nixon election but commentators it coloured with the brush called conservatism. It is just that Trump brought it in open. The more far right wing Republicans became the Democrats moved to further right than they were culminating in the selection of Hilary Clinton as Presidential candidate(a right wing Republican turned Democrat who was a supporter of Barry Goldwater)

  39. Ven @ #83 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 8:23 am

    DTT

    You posted Democrats winning House is not a Blue wave. Nate Cohn disagrees with you. He says it is a wave because Democrats got 7 to 8 more than Republicans. A person do not have to be a contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. 8 House seats are in doubt & the number of seats Democrats won could go up to 40 seats

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/11/8/1811270/-Sorry-Trump-it-was-absolutely-a-blue-wave

    Ven

    Look the whole idea of the Blue wave was based on polling in late 2017 when the trump vote was way down. That set up expectations of a major Democrat win in the House and the senate. hence the term wave or even Tsunami was used. at the end of the day there was a reasonable but not spectacular swing to the Democrats but nothing like the high hopes of December last year.

    Although there were some very good outcomes for the democrats, especially in Governors, i think even you will agree that the vote fell way short of expectations. The Democrats cannot pick up 40 seats. Of the outstanding seats at most they can pick up 5/11 (there is one that seems to have disappeared). So while they will be happy they won the house they came in at the lower end of expectation.

    Whatever way you look at it the Senate was a bad outcome. had they held ground they would have been very happy or even losing 1 seat it would have been a good outcome. But losing 3 as they have is a problem for 2020. They did scrape home in Montana which is a good thing, but it should NOT have been so close – not in Montana.

    As i said before the very best thing for the Democrats is that their rust belt seems to have returned. This sets them up for a good win in 2020 PROVIDED they select a good candidate.

  40. C@tmomma says:

    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 9:30 am

    phoenixRED @ #84 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 9:24 am

    Republicans Are Scared In Florida As Sean Hannity Calls Recount An Illegal Democrat Plot

    That, from the party, and with his red tie worn on the stage with Trump the day before the Mid Terms Hannity is now OF the Republican Party, who shoe-horned George W.Bush into the White House via a Recount in FLORIDA!

    ********************************************************************

    AND – you won’t be surprised to read THIS name and his numerous instances in Florida :

    New Supreme Court nominee Kavanaugh has ties to big Florida moments

    This time, it was the 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. With the Florida votes still undecided in December because of a state-mandated recount due to the razor-thin margin of the election results, Kavanaugh joined Bush’s legal team, which was trying to stop the ballot recount in the state.

    The case went before the U.S. Supreme Court, which voted 5-4 to stop the recount, essentially paving the way for Bush to become president. That decision by the Supreme Court is still controversial 18 years later.

    Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article214604235.html#storylink=cpy

  41. Can somebody clarify which Democrat President got more than 50 % of the popular vote after Franklin Roosevelt other than Obama?

  43. So much for Trump and the NRA’s theory that having armed security everywhere will save you from mass shootings:

    “It appears he walked up to the scene. He shot the security guard that was standing outside. He stepped inside,” Dean said.

    “It appears that he turned to the right and shot several of the other security and employees there, and then began opening fire inside the nightclub.”

    – ‘Everyone dove to the floor’ –

    Among those killed in the assault was a three-decade veteran of the sheriff’s department, 54-year-old Ron Helus, who was married and had a grown son.

    “He went in there to save people and made the ultimate sacrifice,” Dean said.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/photos-emerge-ian-david-long-ex-marine-accused-killing-12-thousand-oaks-mass-shooting/

  44. On topic of the Fraudband.

    It looks like NBN bursted our water mains yesterday.

    But there is no media outburst.

    And yes we can claim they digging up our footpaths too :/

  45. Good Morning

    So much happened on my break 🙂

    As expected Turnbull was a fizzer on QandA last night. He certainly is no Keating.
    It was all the fault of the right wing and not his years of appeasement.

    Florida is still not decided recounts are the go we could still see hanging chads on our tv screens
    Trump doing his best China impersonation to distract from how bigly he won.

    NSW politics. Glad Foley is gone. Hopefully NSW Labor will learn something. Maybe having the Federal Labor leadership rules would help. It would certainly bring about the needed change of culture.

    I think thats about it. 🙂

  46. Good Morning

    So much happened on my break 🙂

    As expected Turnbull was a fizzer on QandA last night. He certainly is no Keating.
    It was all the fault of the right wing and not his years of appeasement.

    Florida is still not decided recounts are the go we could still see hanging chads on our tv screens
    Trump doing his best China impersonation to distract from how bigly he won.

    NSW politics. Glad Foley is gone. Hopefully NSW Labor will learn something. Maybe having the Federal Labor leadership rules would help. It would certainly bring about the needed change of culture.

    I think thats about it. 🙂

  47. Ven says: Friday, November 9, 2018 at 9:38 am

    Can somebody clarify which Democrat President got more than 50 % of the popular vote after Franklin Roosevelt other than Obama?

    **********************************************

    Jimmy Carter is one ???? ….

  48. @iorvolsky tweets

    CNN Exit Poll shows guns as 4th ranking issue of voters’ minds on #MidtermElection2018

    Most important issue facing the country:

    Health care: 41%
    Immigration: 23%
    Economy: 21%
    Gun Policy: 11%

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