BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,767 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. In a sign that the Morrison ­government was also failing to connect with voters, Labor posted a further one-point gain in popular support to reach a commanding primary vote of 40 per cent.

    The Coalition’s primary vote fell by a point to 35 per cent.

    This is two points higher than the 10-year record low of 33 per cent recorded on the weekend following the August 24 spill and two points down on the 37 per cent it had reached in mid-October when there were signs the government might be mounting an electoral ­recovery.

    The last time prior to the leadership spill that the Coalition’s primary vote was this low was in October 2017 when the government was in the grip of the citizenship crisis and facing divisions within its ranks over the gay marriage plebiscite. For Labor, it is only the third time it has posted a primary vote above 40 per cent since February 2015.

    The numbers for all other ­parties remained unchanged, with the Greens on 9 per cent, One ­Nation firm on 6 per cent and the vote for “other” minor parties and independents at 10 per cent. The gloss continued to come off Mr Morrison’s leadership, after he had initially become the first prime minister to post a positive net ­satisfaction rating in more than two years.

  2. The United States polity is so severely polarized that the case for political union should be questioned.

    A nation state is only sustainable if there is a very strong sense of shared assumptions, values, and civic identity. If different elements of the nation are living in fundamentally different realities and want fundamentally different things, they would probably be better off living in separate nations.

    Perhaps California should start issuing its own currency, enforce tax obligations in that currency, and allow the currency to float in foreign exchange markets. California is the fifth largest economy in the world. Perhaps Oregon and Washington state would like to merge with California and constitute a new nation state called California.

    Perhaps New York State should do the same, and perhaps Massachusetts, Maryland, and New Hampshire would like to be part of a monetarily sovereign nation state known as New York.

    Let the other states decide whether they would like to join the nation state of California or the nation state of New York or remain part of a rump United States that is hampered by very limited real resource capacity.

    At a certain point, it can become necessary for people to acknowledge that they have incompatible concepts of what a good government and a good society look like.

  3. Murdoch pulled the support plug for ScoMo already:

    The Australian
    ‏Verified account @australian
    30m30 minutes ago

    #BREAKING: Scott Morrison has failed to arrest the slide in support for the government, with the Coalition falling back another point behind Labor on a two-party-preferred basis #Newspoll https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/coalition-and-pm-continue-to-slide-down-slippery-poll/news-story/9e6e3c8cd42f6f1a8db2ee227301e828/

  4. Labor to win 100+seats in the HoR looking like a possibility.
    Dutton appearing out of his box this weekend not helping.
    O’Dywer and the LNP attitude to superannuation exemplifies the utter incompetence of this leftover Howard era LNP government. Turnbulls appearance last week provided the evidence for his removal. Dutton, buses, planes and all is just a dimwit with the Tourism thing ready to break in his face. Abbott hanging about in the dustbins of delusion.
    Ths nation and voters are very patient. The only sign of leadership at this stage would be to allow an election to take place. We can only hope.

  5. Nicholas @ #1759 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 8:39 pm

    The United States polity is so severely polarized that the case for political union should be questioned.

    A nation state is only sustainable if there is a very strong sense of shared assumptions, values, and civic identity. If different elements of the nation are living in fundamentally different realities and want fundamentally different things, they would probably be better off living in separate nations.

    Perhaps California should start issuing its own currency, enforce tax obligations in that currency, and allow the currency to float in foreign exchange markets. California is the fifth largest economy in the world. Perhaps Oregon and Washington state would like to merge with California and constitute a new nation state called California.

    Perhaps New York State should do the same, and perhaps Massachusetts, Maryland, and New Hampshire would like to be part of a monetarily sovereign nation state known as New York.

    Let the other states decide whether they would like to join the nation state of California or the nation state of New York or remain part of a rump United States that is hampered by very limited real resource capacity.

    At a certain point, it can become necessary for people to acknowledge that they have incompatible concepts of what a good government and a good society look like.

    Nicholas

    There are (admittedly very biased) people who argue that the USA will go the same way as the USSR.

    I must admit when i was getting closely into the 2016 election I looked at USA demographics and I was stunned by what I found. The differences in racial composition were very significant, such that other than all speaking English there was not much to bind them. It is hard to see what binds them when they differ in ethnicity, economies, religion and core values.

    Broadly there are the following “zones”

    California – yes big enough to be a nation. Ethically diverse and rather wealthy. it could join with Washington and Oregon or with Nevada . There IS a secessionist movement but it seems weakening now.

    If California were to leave then Texas would follow, probably dragging in Arizona and New Mexico although New Mexico with its 10% Indian population and 50% Spanish speakers is a special case.

    Then there are the slave states. Too poor to go it alone these states would have a hard time fining a home. They have a large very poor black population byt very few Latinos

    New England of course could easily stand alone or join Canada. This is white central which given that it is a Blue” area does not support the idea of Republicans= white

    The beltway – DC, Virginia and probably Georgia

    The rust belt – PA, Mi, Ill, Wi Minn, Oho – also the lakes states.

    The flyovers – that inland morass of rural states

    The outliers – stand alone – NY (the city anyway), Florida, Hawaii, Alaska.

  6. Jim Pembroke
    ‏ @Jim_Pembroke
    11h11 hours ago

    Jim Pembroke Retweeted The Australian

    I know it looks bad @ScottMorrisonMP
    But keep doing what you’re doing…over and over again.
    Just do it louder, more often and in bigger buses.
    You’re bound to get a different result.
    #Newspoll #auspol

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