Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another turn of the polling screw against the Coalition, as formerly uncommitted respondents increasingly offer a negative view of the Prime Minister.

The fortnightly Essential poll — now appearing in Newspoll off weeks, praise be — follows Newspoll in recording Labor’s lead at 54-46, out from 53-47. Monthly personal ratings are better for Scott Morrison than Newspoll in that he remains in net positive territory, but the formerly undecided are breaking heavily against him, with his approval down two to 41% and disapproval up nine to 37%. Bill Shorten maintains his recent improving form, up five on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 44% – his second best result from the pollster in the past two years. However, the shift on preferred prime minister is relatively modest, with Morrison’s lead down from 42-27 to 41-29.

Other findings: 44% support Australia becoming a republic in principle, down four since May, with 32% opposed; 61% have a favourable view of Queen Elizabeth, 68% of Prince William, 70% of Prince Harry but only 33% of Prince Charles. The Guardian report is here; the full report from Essential Research, including primary votes, will be with us later today. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1028.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here, and the primary vote shifts are on the high end from what you’d expect out of a one-point shift on two-party preferred: the Coalition is down two to 36%, and Labor up two to 39%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,958 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. This comment sums it up well:

    Ian Mason

    The appearance of @TurnbullMalcolm on #QandA seems as much a pitch to the Liberal Party about his place in their history as it is about giving honest answers.

  2. Yesterday, upon the stair,
    I met a Mal who wasn’t there
    He wasn’t there again today
    I wish, I wish he’d go away…

    When I came home last night at three
    The Mal was waiting there for me
    But when I looked around the hall
    I couldn’t see him there at all!
    Go away, go away, don’t you come back any more!
    Go away, go away, and please don’t slam the door… (slam!)

    Last night I saw upon the stair
    A little Mal who wasn’t there
    He wasn’t there again today
    Oh, how I wish he’d go away…

  3. Nath: “This Q&A is like a micro reenactment of his tenure as PM. Much anticipation followed by gentlemanly waffling and nothing very exciting.”

    That’s a very neat summary.

  4. “So, a member of the Liberal Party whilst heading the Republic movement”

    No. He wasn’t. He was actively hawking himself to the Labor party as the next party leader at the time “I’m through with whe Liberal Party” he’d thunder from his Park St Office to anyone passing: he’d openly brag about the plan to march on Moscow: the Republic, followed by his pick of safe Labor seats – preferably Sydney or Grayndler, tapping Beasley on the shoulder in early 2001, defeating Howard in the coming spring campaign, 17 years glorious reign and retirement … about now.

  5. “is Foley a catholic that feels he needs to confess, for what reason.”
    They probably talked about him not going into the reasons he was resigning and her not making any statements.
    The 19 minutes would just be what comes up automatically on your mobile phone under call history.

  6. “Thank you for your service”

    Where is Malcolm Tucker when one needs him.

    Truffles service includes the FTTN / mixed media NBN – the greatest scandal involving public money since federation. Every other service fuck up by that omnishambles of a man pales, including the cloud seeding scandal, Ute gate and the Great Barrier Reef Boondoggle.

    Of course his public service scandals simply reflect his private business scandals before entering parliament: strip logging the Solomons, the HIH Affair, fluffing up ozemail for sale as local chairman for the international vampire squid bank and making a 1000 times personal profit from that transaction, then trousering all that lucre and snuffling it out of the country and into the Caymans before the Taxman cottoned on (and before iiNet worked out they’d been had) …

  7. “I’m a great friend of the ABC.”

    Yep, he even set the ABC up with another great friend of his, Justin Milne. I’m surely he’s deeply saddened that his friends have now split.

  8. When Turnbull told us he was all there was between disaster and Bill Shorten I was shocked.

    I put my pipe down, adjusted my cravat and turned around to Her Indoors, asking her if she’d ever heard of how dangerous Bill Shorten would be to Australia.

    “What’s that idiot Turnbull saying now?” was all she replied.

    “Good point,” I thought.

  9. Final comment?

    So pleased Malcolm came back one more time to remind us what a self-aggrandising, duplicitous, jelly-spined, delusional, smug faced, toadie he really is/was. We’d almost forgotten. #qanda… fuck off

  10. “So pleased Malcolm came back one more time to remind us what a self-aggrandising, duplicitous, jelly-spined, delusional, smug faced, toadie he really is/was…” and that’s just some of his better qualities.

  11. Special time of 8pm in the east fess.
    Caught me by surprise, was about to watch Seinfeld. Again.
    Should have watched Seinfeld. Again.
    Mal very dull, full of self aggrandisement.

  12. The most interesting comment from Turnbull was that he was leading in 40 marginal seats according to internal polling.

    What do others think?

  13. C@t

    You just cant help yourself can you. Since William told you to lift your game the other night I have drliberately not mentioned you in despatches.

    To do a bit of virtue signalling I was just making sure that I would not stir you up. S favour actually.

    In the meanwhile I countered 7 occasions when you entered other conversations to snark.

    Now this makes 8, and since it is me that you snarked at, I am drawing your attention to it.

    Your aggression reigns supreme.

    Your delusional pursuance of the role of pseudo leading influencer on the blog is tiresome and juvenile.

    There is no doubt you are just a nasty lady with logs on both shoulders. Please dog I never run into you in the flesh.

  14. Yes Late Riser

    If I’d been there I’d have asked the questions…

    Given you’ve spent tens of billions on a copper network that will have to be replaced to keep up with the rest of the world, how do you think history will remember you? Do you regret wasting tens of billions on a temporary NBN when you could have built a future proof fibre network for about the same cost? Were you wrong in telling Tony Jones here on Q+A that your second rate NBN would only be “a quarter to a third the cost”?

  15. Foley is cactus, rightly or wrongly. Probably rightly imo.
    All for the presumption of innocence and all that but his phone calls to the journo suggesting he was a drunken idiot at the time and would be resigning poste haste, then saying to her a day later he wouldn’t resign due to legal advice, is not a good look.
    He’s trying to preserve his marriage poor bugger.

  16. Henry:

    I’m reminded of the woman at the center of the Kavanaugh accusations with Foley and the ABC journo. She said she didn’t want to complain, wanted to move on, but the caravan around her moved in a way it made it difficult for her to stay silent. Same as Blasey Ford in the Kavanaugh situation.

  17. grimace:

    This is where I miss not having Sky News. They at least covered these events, even if it was on their multi view with a small screen.

  18. I have to say, Amy Remeikis, I love what you do.

    Bronwyn Bishop is on Sky, but there is a limit to how much punishment anyone can take in one night. I am sure it is along the lines of; “something, something socialists, something socialists”.

  19. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 7:35 pm
    Yes, you would think some people would take a dose of reality before they start their wowserish moralising, but no, we must all be as pure as the driven snow in thought and deed these days.
    Me? I prefer to leave these things up to the law, as opposed to thinking I am the last word in the law.

    What a load of crap. If Foley was a Liberal or a Green you would be leading the charge. We all remember how hard you went at Bhathal and then your embarrassing efforts in defence of Emma Husar.

  20. BB

    “Each case is different, and should be assessed on its merits”

    Yes, and not by you, but by a court.

    Earlier on you joked about hands inside underwear/outside underwear, then went on “Seriously though….” and said how you found the whole reported scenario “strange”.

    Over past days your abject ignorance as to the dynamics of sexual assault has shone brightly like a beacon.

    I have read your essays for many years here, the Pol Sword and other places. Often you write very interesting posts, when you are writing about things you know. And rightly you have been subjected to truckloads of praise.

    I usually write here at length about my two career specialties ..,.. psychology and law. For me both these aspects of my working life came together in the last decade where I worked specifically in the area of sexual assault/ abuse and the related pursuit of justice for victims and punishment for perpetrators.

    So in this area I can see that you ate full of it, and clearly do not know or understand what you are writing about. Your lay knowledge is obviously filtered through the eyes of a man of a particular vintage.

    Back to your description of the alleged Foley/Raper incident as “strange”. Frotteurism and toucherism are 2 of the most common forms of sexual assault. They are not at all strange. They are ends in themselves, and usually do not lead to further contact.

    It behoves you to consider one of the famous quote of Socrates “I am the wisest man I know. I know one more proposition than anyone else. I know that I don’t know everything”

    Regards from this wowserish, puritanical idiot.

  21. I have just read an article by Sean Kelly.

    The rise, duck and weave of Australia’s no-fault prime minister

    Scott Morrison, in his own telling, is so often a mere observer … he is not an instigator, only a vessel through which others’ bidding is done. If you are Scott Morrison, it is even possible to become prime minister without any agency on your part.

    by determinedly avoiding the sense you are responsible and the risk of fallout that accrues when you are, you can come out on top

    I’d title it: “An empty man plays games”, and summarise it by saying Morrison shows care but no responsibility. He’s playing a role. He has no sense of responsibility. The obvious problem being that a sense of responsibility is precisiely what a national leader should have.

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