Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another turn of the polling screw against the Coalition, as formerly uncommitted respondents increasingly offer a negative view of the Prime Minister.

The fortnightly Essential poll — now appearing in Newspoll off weeks, praise be — follows Newspoll in recording Labor’s lead at 54-46, out from 53-47. Monthly personal ratings are better for Scott Morrison than Newspoll in that he remains in net positive territory, but the formerly undecided are breaking heavily against him, with his approval down two to 41% and disapproval up nine to 37%. Bill Shorten maintains his recent improving form, up five on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 44% – his second best result from the pollster in the past two years. However, the shift on preferred prime minister is relatively modest, with Morrison’s lead down from 42-27 to 41-29.

Other findings: 44% support Australia becoming a republic in principle, down four since May, with 32% opposed; 61% have a favourable view of Queen Elizabeth, 68% of Prince William, 70% of Prince Harry but only 33% of Prince Charles. The Guardian report is here; the full report from Essential Research, including primary votes, will be with us later today. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1028.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here, and the primary vote shifts are on the high end from what you’d expect out of a one-point shift on two-party preferred: the Coalition is down two to 36%, and Labor up two to 39%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,958 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Late Riser
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 11:32 pm
    I have just read an article by Sean Kelly.
    The rise, duck and weave of Australia’s no-fault prime minister
    This is quite a good article. I particularly liked Kelly’s exploration of Morrison’s evasiveness and use of language. Nice job. Kelly also raised the issue of Morrison’s cunning, well put by an audience member in Q&A earlier then asking MT whether Morrison was a Steven Bradbury or Machiavelli. I got the impression that Kelly thinks its the former, but he provided some evidence that its the latter.

  2. Lets hope we dont see Trumble ever again.Its all about me,me and me again.What a fucking charlatan.Good riddance to the smarmy fizza.

  3. I don’t give a shit whether Morisson is a cunning linguist or a drongo.

    His party stands for an ideology that is wrong and dangerous.

  4. taylormade @ #1946 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 10:51 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 7:35 pm
    Yes, you would think some people would take a dose of reality before they start their wowserish moralising, but no, we must all be as pure as the driven snow in thought and deed these days.
    Me? I prefer to leave these things up to the law, as opposed to thinking I am the last word in the law.

    What a load of crap. If Foley was a Liberal or a Green you would be leading the charge. We all remember how hard you went at Bhathal and then your embarrassing efforts in defence of Emma Husar.

    What a load of self-serving crap. Though I expect no more from your spiteful offerings.

    The fact is I had evidence against Alex Bhathal from a long-standing member of her branch and former classmate of mine, which I linked to for proof.

    Secondly, I was aghast at the treatment of Emma Husar by an ambitious and vindictive member of the Labor Party, plus those here who were prepared to take any opportunity presented to them, hypocrites who support The Greens, mainly, that was meted out to her and which the subsequent report found.

    Yet again, though, we have a known attacker of Labor coming here and using a current position of mine as a club to beat me over the head with, via some spurious rewriting of history.

    Get a life.

    And grow up.

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