Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another turn of the polling screw against the Coalition, as formerly uncommitted respondents increasingly offer a negative view of the Prime Minister.

The fortnightly Essential poll — now appearing in Newspoll off weeks, praise be — follows Newspoll in recording Labor’s lead at 54-46, out from 53-47. Monthly personal ratings are better for Scott Morrison than Newspoll in that he remains in net positive territory, but the formerly undecided are breaking heavily against him, with his approval down two to 41% and disapproval up nine to 37%. Bill Shorten maintains his recent improving form, up five on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 44% – his second best result from the pollster in the past two years. However, the shift on preferred prime minister is relatively modest, with Morrison’s lead down from 42-27 to 41-29.

Other findings: 44% support Australia becoming a republic in principle, down four since May, with 32% opposed; 61% have a favourable view of Queen Elizabeth, 68% of Prince William, 70% of Prince Harry but only 33% of Prince Charles. The Guardian report is here; the full report from Essential Research, including primary votes, will be with us later today. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1028.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here, and the primary vote shifts are on the high end from what you’d expect out of a one-point shift on two-party preferred: the Coalition is down two to 36%, and Labor up two to 39%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,958 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. William Bowe says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 8:25 pm

    Ven when have I ever abused you? please apologise

    Nath, this was rather pathetic of you, under the circumstances.
    Yeah, probably. I didn’t think he would though.

  2. The Liberal “broard church” … “the party I joined in 1973”.

    The Liberal Party was conceived to benefit black marketeers and war profiteers. It has always been the party of the tax lurk and quick buck. The true heir of the Rum Corp. A Ponzi scheme. No wonder Malcolm felt entitled to be worshipped by that kind of outfit.

    As for Malcolm joining the party in 1973 – that never stopped him from leaving the party from time to time and shopping h8mslef to the ALP as both a potential National Secretary of the AWU and ALP Senator in the 1980s.

  3. “Jones is wriggling in his seat… thinks… how do I stop this bullshittery?”

    Nah mate, he’s soiled himself in the excitement and is feeling sticky.

  4. Turnbull fires a parting shot at the Right.

    Not sure whether all this is going to gel with Morrison’s attempt to suck up to the Far Northern Right.

  5. Speaking of ‘Right Wing Populism’, what’s this septic tankery wankery when a questioner starts their question with, “Thank you for your service”. Sheesh!

  6. “Turnbull has his list of ‘achievements’ off pat by now.”

    Sort of like one of those “Shortest books in the world jokes” (no link – might offend).

    Let’s see:
    1. Continued to prosecute predecessor’s policies
    2. …?

    One thing definitely NOT onthe list which he probably claimed: Marriage Equality. That came about in spite of him.

  7. c
    I don’t mind people being polite in public discourse. In fact I like it. Except when I don’t want to do it myself, of course.

  8. Why were you so hostile to the ABC?

    Gets a dribble for an answer.

    There has to be a good follow up here… c’mon Jones, sink the slipper in.

  9. Turnbull:

    Well,no. I got so much done. You know,the Labor Party used to say, “Oh,Malcolm used to be in favour ofmarriage equality – he’s no longerin favour of it.” Then I legislatedit, right? So I delivered it.

    The audience does not like this. “No you didn’t” can be heard, which is no mean feat, given they don’t have a microphone.


    We did. We did. It’s legal. 5,000 people have been married – 5,000same-sex couples have been married in Australia since it was legalised just about a year ago, and that was done under my government.

    Now, you know, that is a fact. It might be a melancholy fact, from some people’s point of view – from the Labor Party’s point of view, because they would have rather they did it – but it is a great Liberal achievement. A great Liberal achievement. And it was my government that delivered it.


    And all without a ludicrous popular voting charade in which GLTBQ people would be subject to vicious public smears and attacks….oh…wait…

  10. This Q&A is like a micro reenactment of his tenure as PM. Much anticipation followed by gentlemanly waffling and nothing very exciting.

  11. The confirmation of the Stokes/Murdoch conversation is also more than a little interesting.

    I look forward to Labor ads stressing that Murdoch would not mind three years of Labor Government…

  12. So Malcolm hasn’t changed. Still disappointingly anticlimactic. 🙁

    Think that its going to be the reaction to Malcoms appearance, rather than the appearance itself that will hurt the Libs.

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