There’s a fair bit going on on the blog right now, so for those of you focused on the top of the page, note the various threads below this one: the main discussion thread, Adrian Beaumont’s post on the US mid-terms, my comprehensive Victorian election campaign summary and the one where I plead for donations.
And now to the matter at hand: the last batch of postals have finally been added for the Wentworth by-election, for which my full accounting of the results can be found here. The late postals have broken 232-164 in favour of Kerryn Phelps, who emerges with a winning margin of 38,989 (51.2%) to 37,138 (48.8%), or 1851 votes. All that remains to be done is the formal distribution of preferences, which might yet turn up a few small anomalies.
Fin Review article “GetUp, Israel and Alex Turnbull: How Wentworth was lost”
https://www.outline.com/4JaArE
So the swing is about 19% both on PV and 2PP.
Strange. I though it was lost because the Coalition opted-in on switching PM’s knowing full well that it would leave them facing a by-election if they did.
Too simplistic?
I wonder if the Coalition 100% knew Turnbull would resign & so thought they’d win the seat hands down, or thought he was just bluffing?
Either way they couldn’t have scripted a worse outcome.
don’t rule out a second by-election. Kerryn Phelps could yet be found to fall foul of section 44.
Will the live voting page get a final update? Still has no results for Absents.
oh if she goes to the high court so do Dutton and others…………also what will be the lib/alp 2pp … my guess is 57/43 for the libs
Phelps won’t get S44’d. The Libs pushing to have Phelps disqualified and do another by-election shortly before an imminent general election would look remarkably bitter and deluded even by Morrison’s standards, surely the margin would blow out even further.
I love the fact that out of 9500 postal-vote envelopes returned, 88 didn’t include a ballot paper! And Cud, as has been remarked several times on the main Wentworth thread, there’s no absentee voting in by-elections (for the simple reason that no polling booths are open in the other 149 electorates).
Oh ok cool. Odd that they list it as an item
Will the AEC eventually release a Lib-Lab TPP count? If so, how long is it expected to take?
Don’t quote me, but I think some time next week.
Michael@9:09pm
That is waste of time and can be classified under the category of ‘dog’s happiness’.
“don’t rule out a second by-election. Kerryn Phelps could yet be found to fall foul of section 44.”…. Don’t you worry about that. The Liberals will be too busy trying to escape from this danger:
“Labor pushes for high court to examine Coalition MP Chris Crewther’s eligibility”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/02/labor-to-push-for-s44-high-court-referral-for-coalition-mp-chris-crewther
🙂
The AEC will officially declare the poll for the recent Wentworth by-election on Monday, 5 November at 9:30am. All candidates, the media and members of the public are welcome to attend the event on Level 13, 59 Goulburn Street, Haymarket, Sydney #wentworth #auspol
Ven:
Saturday, November 3, 2018 at 9:29 pm
—————————————
Nobody’s asking you to be interested. Would you mind explaining the expression you used? I am not familiar with it.
William Bowe says:
Saturday, November 3, 2018 at 9:13 pm
Will the AEC eventually release a Lib-Lab TPP count? If so, how long is it expected to take?
Don’t quote me, but I think some time next week.
—————————————
Thanks, William.
mick Quinlivan says:
Saturday, November 3, 2018 at 8:25 pm
oh if she goes to the high court so do Dutton and others…………also what will be the lib/alp 2pp … my guess is 57/43 for the libs
—————————————
I’ve said before I think Wentworth leans 5-6% more to the Coalition than NSW as a whole. BludgerTrack currently has NSW as a whole having a Coal TPP of about 47%. So, my guess at the Lib-Lab TPP here is 52-48.
I am not a lawyer, but as I understand it, any unsuccessful candidate, or possibly any elector (Peter King, come on down!) can challenge Phelps’s election if they think she’s ineligible due to Section 44. The writ hasn’t been returned yet so her election can be challenged. Parliament doesn’t need to get involved.
That said, I wouldn’t count on such a challenge succeeding, although it may at least clarify the law in one area.
Would be interesting to know how many of Phelps Primaries put 2 ALP. This would give an idea of those ALP voters choosing to vote strategically.
Upnorth that’s exactly what I was wondering.
Jack: Remember a lot of postal voters are old people and some of them have memory issues. Also note the large number of votes that were rejected; this is often because the voter has forgotten to fill in the details on the return envelop.
For Phelps to get referred by parliament under s44 she would have to vote for her own referral. Desperation to even raise the claim.
Simon
You should clarify that that is “any elector” with the funds to mount a HC challenge. Deafening silence.
”
Michael A says:
Saturday, November 3, 2018 at 9:49 pm
Ven:
Saturday, November 3, 2018 at 9:29 pm
—————————————
Nobody’s asking you to be interested. Would you mind explaining the expression you used? I am not familiar with it.
”
It is an expression used in another language translated into English. If you have noticed dogs, they show their happiness by wagging their tail for insignificant things.
Ven says:
Sunday, November 4, 2018 at 10:45 am
”
Michael A says:
Saturday, November 3, 2018 at 9:49 pm
Ven:
Saturday, November 3, 2018 at 9:29 pm
—————————————
Nobody’s asking you to be interested. Would you mind explaining the expression you used? I am not familiar with it.
”
It is an expression used in another language translated into English. If you have noticed dogs, they show their happiness by wagging their tail for insignificant things.
—————————————
Why don’t you contact the AEC to let them know they’re wasting their time with an ALP-Coal TPP count in seats where at least one of them isn’t in the final TCP count? They’d appreciate the advice on being careful with resources, I’m sure.
🙂
William Bowe. In the very last row of the Wentworth Polling Place Results table, Percentages tab, columns LP2 and IND2, I think the two percentages are wrong. I thought you’d like to know in case you need to update your scripts for the “big one” coming up next year.
While it’s obvious that there will not be a second byelection based on S44, if by some miracle there was, that is unlikely to show the same results. This was a protest vote. The voters of Wentworth have made their point. The next time they vote I expect them to vote Liberal again, and resoundingly so.
@Adam Antichrist
why would it be a miracle? all that would be required would be for all government MPs + katter to refer her to the high court.
Thanks LR, I’ve corrected that now.
unitary state, I think it takes a miracle to get Katter into the chamber doesn’t it? I note he’s been super critical of the idea of referring a few other MPs, but i guess it doesn’t take a miracle to get him to change his mind.
Still, if she (or the others) gets referred it’ll be a few months till we get an answer. There’s no chance of another by election. Even if it’s legally unavoidable, they’ll just change the date of the federal election.
@Felix
I dont dispute that it may take a while before the high court makes its judgement, but if she had nothing to hide why is she refusing to release the legal advice she supposedly received two days before the by-election?
As much as people here may dislike Dutton, at least he released the legal advice he received.
[As much as people here may dislike Dutton, at least he released the legal advice he received.]
LOL! He released legal advice from the solicitor general that was completely ambiguous and yet the government continues to use its numbers to stop Dutton being referred to the High Court.
Mikehillard @7:28PM “I wonder if the Coalition 100% knew Turnbull would resign & so thought they’d win the seat hands down, or thought he was just bluffing?”
I suspect that they thought that Malcolm would stay and that even if he didn’t, they’d hold the seat, even with a bad swing of 10-15%, which their media mates would spin as a great victory for Morrison.
@ShowsOn
be fair, the allegation against dutton isn’t really even levelled against dutton. It is actually against peter duttons wife for want of a more accurate name. And the question surrounds a change in the law that came into effect july of 2018 – when in fact dutton renominated for the current parliament back in 2016. the case against him is weak.
Antony Green did a blog post on why the final result was closer than it seemed for most of election night.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-05/why-the-results-in-wentworth-narrowed/10446090
Probably the main issue of interest is how to take account of absent vote history in by-elections. Much of the rest is due to Wentworth’s geography, and differences in where the PPVCs were.
The provisions of section 44 apply to sitting members via section 45 which declares their seat vacant if they fall foul of section 44, takes the benefit of any insolvency laws or takes any kind of money for services to the Commonwealth or any kind of bribe for anything done in Parliament.
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Australia_Constitution_Act
a 2pp is of interest to me…. it gives an indication of the underlying mixture or bias of the seat……just on the figures I can see from 2016 and now it appears that at least 2/3 of Phelps votes came from labor the greens and left wing voters. assuming there was a swing of at least 10% to labour then this figure will be higher.
thanks citizen very interesting also read some of Ms Crosby’s blog as well on the Wentworth by election…. she suggests 90% of Phelps voters put the liberals last if so then there could have been a narrow alp majority possible….. we will see when the 2pp comes out
2pp approx 60/40 lib/lab