BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,767 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. ““Unfortunately it’s spreading like wildfire re new allegations.”

    Or maybe some unnamed, dark, sinister power has come to the conclusion that Morrison is as big an idiot as Trump and have decided to bugger up the USA’s mini-me by helping Trump’s mini me retain power there.

  2. Good for Bob. I suppose we will find out eventually if the money spent is worth it, but you have to admire him for exacting something for his electorate.

  3. ajm

    The horse before the cart

    How did Turnbull accrue such wealth?

    His career path is on the public record

    It is being reported that Vicpol are treating the events of this afternoon as an act of terrorism

    So National implications

    Obviously a few suspects can be ruled out as complicit because they are on the public record responding to every contribution on this site

    The question is if they are such experts on every subject (noting also their biases) why are they not gainfully employed instead being on this site 24/7?

    Me?

    I am long since retired (from prior to turning 50) and Father Brown is a repeat – but my wife is engaged

    When you know the outcome interest waxes and wanes

    So some side amusement

    Sad tho that there is such a connection with this site – and others?

    And having spent the last 40 years enjoying the Member’s Reserve and other facilities during the Cup Carnival but not using our tickets last year and this year (and the comment at lunch today was that some no longer being with us and that we are older so now it is hustle and bustle impacts on the fun), attendance including by invitation to hospitality is what it is

    I note in regards Shorten’s low key presence there is no mention of Bishop (from WA where it was not even a public holiday)

    Credibility, hey?

    But typical

  4. Ausdavo

    If the Shorten is so serious on facebook, and its not fake news, why don’t the authors identify themselves? They should get credit for the scoop.

  5. Just to clarify – Phillip & Friends is not my site.

    I received a link to it on Facebook from an ALP friend asking what I thought of the reference to the Canberra Press and maybe new allegations compared with those which I was previously aware of re Bill.

    There are over 100 comments on the site all favourable to Bill. I felt that some of those “in the know” here might be able to throw a light on the “veracity” of the claims regarding the Lib Dirt Unit.

    Steve777 made a sensible comment “Liberal” black ops? Facing defeat, they’ll fight like cornered rats. With the nation’s major media organisation acting as their propaganda arm, any allegations don’t have to be credible, let alone have a modicum of truth, to do damage.”

    As for people like Nath – mate you clearly illustrate where you are coming from. You denigrate anyone at any time you get the opportunity. Thanks Cat for your comment to Nath.

    Enough said – let’s hope the story dies tonight and goes back where it belongs.

  6. Katter’s the Harradine of Tassie. An ICAC, as proposed by Shorten, may stop these clear rorts. Yet given both sides are into it, probably not. Harradine knew how to milk the system, a DLP stooge.

  7. Observer
    And having spent the last 40 years enjoying the Member’s Reserve and other facilities during the Cup Carnival but not using our tickets last year and this year
    ___________________________
    Anyone ever note that Observer always explicitly mentions how well off and comfortable he is? I suppose a certain amount of pomposity is possible in the wealthy but it wouldn’t surprise me if he lives in a housing commission property and ‘portrays’ this wealthy independent character for his, and our, amusement.

  8. And Labor and the Greens want to bring the Nauru boat people onto Australian soil – complete insanity, some of these people on Nauru could be connected to terrorist groups. PM Morrison needs to absolutely go to town on this, Shorten and the Greens will be exposed on this issue.

  9. I must admit being no expert on matters Sub Saharan ** , but I have this general perception that Somalia is not Sudan – and all the feigned hysteria by Liberals in Victoria is about the Sudanese youth.

    Indeed Somalia is ** mostly influenced both ethnically and religion-wise by the Arab diaspora. From what I could tell of the one photo i’ve seen of the Melbourne attacker is that he was of Arabic appearance.

    Sudanese on the other hand, and I have known quite a few of these from my basketball playing kids activities, are ** more ethically negroid and religion-wise Christian.

    One of the constant tensions ** in Sub Saharan Africa is the Arab Muslim north and the Negroid Christian south – they have lots of disputes and civil wars. And they are not the same.

    ** = I have these perceptions, which may not reflect reality

  10. The attacker is Somalian.

    Not Sudanese but It is a BS argument anyway.

    Without full knowledge of all the facts, I would still postulate that the attacker is a violent criminal foremost. Closely followed by being a piece of sh_t.

    There are violent criminal pieces of shit in all ethnic groups. Including Caucasian.

    There are many problems and threats to our society and terrorism is definitely one. But you can not deal with terrorism in a multi ethnic society by using the sins of a few to demonise whole ethnic or religious groups,

  11. Bree:

    Stop the inanity! The children on Nauru are exposed to conditions that a parent would justifiably find anethama. And so should you.

  12. “Katter’s the Harradine of Tassie.”

    Actually Harradine was the Harridane of Tassie. Katter might be the Harradine of outback Qld.

  13. Bree @ #563 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 9:21 pm

    And Labor and the Greens want to bring the Nauru boat people onto Australian soil – complete insanity, some of these people on Nauru could be connected to terrorist groups. PM Morrison needs to absolutely go to town on this, Shorten and the Greens will be exposed on this issue.

    Now, this is just rolled gold bullshit.

  14. Bree

    And Labor and the Greens want to bring the Nauru boat people onto Australian soil – complete insanity, some of these people on Nauru could be connected to terrorist groups. PM Morrison needs to absolutely go to town on this, Shorten and the Greens will be exposed on this issue.

    The only impact will be that dimwitted, racist conservatives like yourself will enjoy whipping themselves into a lather over the issue.

  15. sprocket:

    It doesn’t matter that Somalia isn’t Sudan, the Liberals are going to milk this African attack thing for all its worth. Trump and his allies were happy to lie about terrorists being in the migrant caravan. Dutton and the Vic LOTO will do exactly the same over-hyped rhetoric with this. Facts don’t matter.

  16. Without full knowledge of all the facts, I would still postulate that the attacker is a violent criminal foremost.

    Violent criminal, mentally ill and/or drug user – take your pick.

    Forget the “war on drugs” – just pick one: crystal methamphetamine (aka “ice”.)
    Take a zero tolerance approach on that, and you might achieve something…

  17. Southern Sudan, like its neighbour Ethiopia, is Christian from ancient times. Christianity persisted there while Islam swept through Egypt and the rest of North Africa in the 7th and 8th centuries. Somalia is a Muslim country.

  18. Steve777:

    “Katter’s the Harradine of Tassie.”

    [‘Actually Harradine was the Harridane of Tassie. Katter might be the Harradine of outback Qld.’]

    I don’t quite follow your nuance.

  19. Bree @9:21PM. Instead of rattling off “Liberal” talking points of the day, why don’t you try to convince us of the virtue and utility of “free” markets (i.e. dominated by plutocrats) or whatever it is you believe in.

  20. Matthew guy can’t help himself.

    He has declared enough is enough according to Fairfax.

    But the man involved is said to be known to ASIO so by my reading that makes this a Federal matter.

    Remind me again who is in charge of the spooks.

  21. “If Dutton or the Lobster Mobster do not milk the Melbourne CBD attack for political gain, then I will eat Trump’s MAGA hat.”

    And if they do, they should be called – loudly.

  22. Remind me again who is in charge of the spooks.

    Cue lots of Vic LOTO being frowning serious noddy to equally frowning serious Dutton in news conferences over the weekend.

  23. “I don’t quite follow your nuance.”

    Brian Harradine was an independent Senator for Tasmania from 1975-2005. He gained a reputation for extracting goodies for Tasmania from Governments on both sides. For a while he held the balance of power and made use of it.

    Bob Katter wants to do the same for his electorate centred on Mt Isa which covers a wide swathe of outback Queensland.

  24. A historic moment in Victorian politics.
    Victorian Police Commissionet and Dan Andrews, Premier, press conference on the 9/11 Bourke St terror attack.

    Calm measured response from the Victorian Police Commissioner and Dan Andrews reaasuring words to Melbournians.

    https://www.theage.com.au/melbourne-news/bourke-street-car-explosion-live-man-shot-after-car-bursts-into-flames-on-bourke-street-20181109-p50f5b.html

    Events, dear boys events. Dan hit the perfect note in this Press Conference and I reckon has sealed his reelection on 24/11.

  25. I can’t see anything untoward about the government’s gift to Katter’s electorate. Just the normal wheeling and dealing done in a hung parliament. Sure, Morrison has caved easily, but that’s not a bribe, just a weak leader desperate to retain power.

  26. The Melbourne CBD attack was horrible.
    If it turns out to have been a terrorist attack, ScoMo needs to come out and explain whether this person was on their radar or not.

  27. Premier Dan Andrews Facebook post:
    Today, an act of terror struck the heart of our city, in a place where past wounds have still not healed.

    Exact details of what occurred are being investigated.

    What we know is that in that moment, our city responded with courage and conviction.

    We saw it in our police, whose swift, brave and decisive action saved lives.

    We saw it in the everyday Victorians, who stayed with and cared for the injured, and stood ready to protect others.

    And we saw it in the firefighters who rushed to the scene, and in our paramedics and hospital staff, who continue to treat the injured.

    To all of our first responders, we extend our utmost gratitude.

    And to the victims and their loved ones, we offer our prayers, support and deepest sympathies.

    We won’t be defined by this evil act.

    Victorians will continue to go about their business, together and with resolve.

  28. “I can’t see anything untoward about the government’s gift to Katter’s electorate. Just the normal wheeling and dealing done in a hung parliament. Sure, Morrison has caved easily, but that’s not a bribe, just a weak leader desperate to retain power.”

    It may or may not be “untoward”, but that’s how the system works. Katter is doing his job and has probably secured his seat.

  29. Victoria @ #589 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 9:54 pm

    The Melbourne CBD attack was horrible.
    If it turns out to have been a terrorist attack, ScoMo needs to come out and explain whether this person was on their radar or not.

    * the man was known to police and intelligence agencies(ASIO)

    So, good job, not, ScuMo and your government, protecting the citizens of this nation.

  30. Victoria @ #596 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 10:00 pm

    Rossmore

    Just saw your link.

    It would be disgraceful if anyone attempts to politicise this

    You-know-who already has:

    Opposition leader Matthew Guy: ‘enough is enough’
    Opposition Leader Matthew Guy has said “enough is enough”, that there was no room for “moral squeamishness” and that all the state’s resources should be used to ensure the safety of Victorians.

    “We need to eradicate this sort of behaviour, because enough is enough.”

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