Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another turn of the polling screw against the Coalition, as formerly uncommitted respondents increasingly offer a negative view of the Prime Minister.

The fortnightly Essential poll — now appearing in Newspoll off weeks, praise be — follows Newspoll in recording Labor’s lead at 54-46, out from 53-47. Monthly personal ratings are better for Scott Morrison than Newspoll in that he remains in net positive territory, but the formerly undecided are breaking heavily against him, with his approval down two to 41% and disapproval up nine to 37%. Bill Shorten maintains his recent improving form, up five on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 44% – his second best result from the pollster in the past two years. However, the shift on preferred prime minister is relatively modest, with Morrison’s lead down from 42-27 to 41-29.

Other findings: 44% support Australia becoming a republic in principle, down four since May, with 32% opposed; 61% have a favourable view of Queen Elizabeth, 68% of Prince William, 70% of Prince Harry but only 33% of Prince Charles. The Guardian report is here; the full report from Essential Research, including primary votes, will be with us later today. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1028.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here, and the primary vote shifts are on the high end from what you’d expect out of a one-point shift on two-party preferred: the Coalition is down two to 36%, and Labor up two to 39%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,958 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 40
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  1. Interesting. Sam Maiden writing for the Grauniad now.
    ___
    Dan I reckon Maiden is freelancing. I have seen contributions from her popping up all over the place.

  3. Thanks Michael.

    GG
    “Morrison is selling quirkiness, unpredicatability and boof headed good blokiness.”

    Yes exactly. It is all image. “People, please like me!!”, shouts Shouty McShoutface.

    And a (fake) bus tour seven months out from an election? It is like Latham in opposition. Is he the PM or the LOTO? Is his in-tray really empty? No governing to do? Why do we still have to pay him $500k if he has basically given up governing and started campaigning?

    In case he hasn’t noticed, Kerryn Phelps still wants to take her seat and ask some questions. I’m sure if he could, he would cancel parliament entirely.

  4. I am putting up the best posts this blog has ever seen only to lose them because I have left off my name etc.

    Put in your name, etc?

    Use a text editor/note taker to draft the post first.

  9. *** NATH MIGRAINE TRIGGER WARNING!! ***

    US midterm election reference in this post.

    Scroll past NOW if you’re handle is “nath”.
    —————————————

    Robert Ball, ABC News 24 looks like it is “including” US midterm election night coverage in its broadcast from 12:00pm to 6:00pm tomorrow:

    https://www.abc.net.au/tv/epg/#/channel/ABCN

  10. Thanks Peg, I though the criticism of Shorten was well justified and further supports what I suspect will be just a liberal-lite government under Shortmen. 60-90 billion on subs! the whole thing is a farce. I’d rather give that cash to Cud Chewer so that he can finish the NBN properly.

  13. Pegasus the credibility of the author went down the shitter by the 2nd paragraph.

    He goes on to say Shorten is devoid of courage or ideas. That’s hilarious.

    And it reflects badly on you to Peg.

  14. Cat

    Bk linked to it not me. Perhaps you had better admonish him for doing so I was just warning those who are sensitive to criticisms of Shorten to not read it – a welcome action I would have thought.

  15. Shellbell @ #144 Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 9:58 am

    I am putting up the best posts this blog has ever seen only to lose them because I have left off my name etc.

    How is this avoided?

    CTRL A – CTRL C prior to post.

    Naturally the very finest, well researched and carefully composed post will go missing simply to remind us of Murphy’s Law.

    Windows 10 now has multiple clipboard entries.

  19. CC

    So serious. I didn’t say I agreed with what was said about Shorten.

    99% of the article was critical of Morrison and the Coalition government.

  20. It’s possible that Morrison is an even worse leader than Downer, who had to give up after a few months. Then there was Nelson, who was completely ineffectual. The best that could be said of Nelson is that he was not faking it. Morrison is faking everything. Voters can work that out in no time. He’s out there every day proving he’s hopeless.

  21. Nath

    There is only one possible outcome as far as the NBN is concerned. At least half its value will be written down and FTTN will be scrapped and replaced.

    The submarines are beside the point.

  23. briefly
    says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 10:13 am
    It’s possible that Morrison is an even worse leader than Downer, who had to give up after a few months. Then there was Nelson, who was completely ineffectual. The best that could be said of Nelson is that he was not faking it. Morrison is faking everything. Voters can work that out in no time. He’s out there every day proving he’s hopeless.
    _________________________________
    He has had a very poor start. If he stops yelling that would be an improvement. He should start walking like Howard. People like the image of a man walking stubbornly in one direction, not even glancing at the Taj Mahal, or even a lovely tree. Just purposefully striding forward, eyes locked on the horizon. Less talking, more walking. That would be a start.

  24. Pegasus,
    So why highlight the particular article that has a bad bit about Bill Shorten, even if it’s 99% critical of the Coalition and Morrison?

    Anyway, enough from me, I’m on my best behaviour today. 😉

  28. C@tmomma
    says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 10:18 am
    nath,
    I really don’t want to see Scott in a tracksuit!
    ___________________________
    Perhaps he could walk with Paul Murray, those guys have gotten heavily into the pies of late.

  29. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/government-rules-out-dual-election-option-says-poll-will-be-next-year-20181106-p50e81.html

    The Morrison government has ruled out a “dual election” scenario where Australian voters would go to two federal elections next year, after talks about the option emerged in the media.

    Special Minister of State Alex Hawke dismissed the idea and insisted on the standard timetable for an election next year.

    “The government has no plans for a dual election. The election is due next year, as required,” Mr Hawke tweeted.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s office also rejected the option, saying “the government has no plans for a dual election” and also stipulating the election would be next year, as Mr Morrison continues a bus tour in regional Queensland to listen to voters.

  31. While ScumMo is in Qld you can bet there will be no unguarded moment when a normal (unscripted) member of the public can talk to him. Otherwise they might ask questions like “so how come we have a heat wave in November if climate change isn’t a problem?”
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/heatwave-to-bring-40-degree-scorcher-to-south-east-queensland-20181105-p50dzs.html

    Briefly
    I agree. There is no substance in ScumMo. Image management has been the reality of his career.

    Back later.

  33. Rossmcg

    I went off them when Johnny Howard started giving them government jobs. Then stories started coming out about huge salary increases for the CEOs etc. The excuse given at the time was that they ‘now’ needed more professional people to run it and of course to attract ‘the right people’ suitably large 6 figure salaries were needed 🙁

  34. Australian Labor, which governed during the 1980s, seemingly provided a stable center-left contrast to Reagan and Thatcher. Though some dispute it, the Bob Hawke-Paul Keating model was a version of what would come to be characterized in the 1990s as Third Way social democracy. It enacted neoliberal measures — such as the privatization of the state-owned bank and airlines, ending free tertiary education, and dismantling centralized wage bargaining — at the same time as it expanded universal health care coverage and taxed capital gains. Paul Keating, then Treasurer and later Prime Minister, was the architect of many of these neoliberal reforms and a key figure in the right-wing faction of Australian Labor, having formed the right-wing NSW Centre Unity faction in 1979.

    https://jacobinmag.com/2018/11/australian-labor-party-third-way-social-democracy

  35. Queen Lizzie 8 and 10 points less popular than her grandsons! I’d love to know what she’s done wrong, other than grow old.

  36. Pegasus @ #178 Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 10:20 am

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/government-rules-out-dual-election-option-says-poll-will-be-next-year-20181106-p50e81.html

    The Morrison government has ruled out a “dual election” scenario where Australian voters would go to two federal elections next year, after talks about the option emerged in the media.

    Special Minister of State Alex Hawke dismissed the idea and insisted on the standard timetable for an election next year.

    “The government has no plans for a dual election. The election is due next year, as required,” Mr Hawke tweeted.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s office also rejected the option, saying “the government has no plans for a dual election” and also stipulating the election would be next year, as Mr Morrison continues a bus tour in regional Queensland to listen to voters.

    I get it now. It’s the bus that is on tour. Is Scott at the Melbourne Cup today? If so, that’s the very south of Queensland.

  37. ”
    ratsak says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 9:56 am
    If Shorten could use some sort of mind control on Morrison to make him self destruct he’d make sure ScoMo was never out of the public’s eye and continuously announcing new brainfarts as policy. Lucky Bill doesn’t look like he needs mind control though. Morrison just doesn’t look like he can stop himself.
    ”
    Maybe Shorten is controlling CoalMo mind. Who knows? 😉


  39. Shellbell says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 9:58 am

    I am putting up the best posts this blog has ever seen only to lose them because I have left off my name etc.

    How is this avoided?

    Use the back arrow on your browser; your brilliance will still be there in comment box; add your handle and email in fields below and post again.

  42. I turned on Paul Murray’s show last night, out of curiousity.

    It was weird. It was as if the show’s producers deliberately wanted to create the impression he was talking to nobody. I swear there was an echo on the set.

  43. nath (AnonBlock)
    Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 10:20 am
    Comment #136

    Disastrous news on the Pie Front.

    Darby’s Pies closes, leaving 120 people unemployed | Newcastle Herald

    http://www.theherald.com.au › News › Local News
    Sep 24, 2018 – Darby’s Pies will shut its 27 stores this afternoon, leaving 120 people unemployed.

    What will happen with the pie eater brigade only Zeus would know.

    ?w=640

    Looks as though one of our heroes has already made a start.

  44. peg

    Of course, what they should do is target federal delegates – those elected by the membership to represent them. I think there are far more of them than there are MPs.

  46. Bruce Haigh is not known for being diplomatic post his diplomatic career. Refugees, international relations and defence are where his expertise lies, and if he says Shorten has come up short in these areas then it’s worth paying attention to him.

    For mine, I think it’s less a case of “me-tooism” than being in opposition and avoiding constant wedging. Also not interfering in areas that are conventionally left to the government of the day to fuck up without help from those opposite.

    (For those who don’t know, Bruce is the guy who, while working at the Australian Embassy, smuggled Donald Woods and his “Biko” manuscript out of apartheid South Africa).

  48. It’s pissing down in Melbourne and will be a heavy track by 3pm. If your having a punt, look for the ducks today!

    #MelbourneCupon PB

  49. Psyclaw @ #139 Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 9:26 am

    PTMD

    What you say isn’t not unclear. I can’t undecipher what you’re not saying or saying nevertheless. In any case it doesn’t make no difference.

    Cheers

    As I wasn’t not unclear in my mind what not loosely I was trying to not unsay so what the not-unfucked do I know or not what I was trying to not to not say.

    I think it would be a not ungood idea for me to write speeches for not good-PM Morrison.

    I could not really not do any unworser .

  50. Interaction with National Conference delegates is a very good thing. There will be lots of competition, of course, but there is no better place to be if you want to be involved in the democratic political process.

    Labor believes in public democracy. It’s great that young environmental activists will try to make themselves heard and, hopefully, get to listen to others too.

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