Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another turn of the polling screw against the Coalition, as formerly uncommitted respondents increasingly offer a negative view of the Prime Minister.

The fortnightly Essential poll — now appearing in Newspoll off weeks, praise be — follows Newspoll in recording Labor’s lead at 54-46, out from 53-47. Monthly personal ratings are better for Scott Morrison than Newspoll in that he remains in net positive territory, but the formerly undecided are breaking heavily against him, with his approval down two to 41% and disapproval up nine to 37%. Bill Shorten maintains his recent improving form, up five on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 44% – his second best result from the pollster in the past two years. However, the shift on preferred prime minister is relatively modest, with Morrison’s lead down from 42-27 to 41-29.

Other findings: 44% support Australia becoming a republic in principle, down four since May, with 32% opposed; 61% have a favourable view of Queen Elizabeth, 68% of Prince William, 70% of Prince Harry but only 33% of Prince Charles. The Guardian report is here; the full report from Essential Research, including primary votes, will be with us later today. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1028.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here, and the primary vote shifts are on the high end from what you’d expect out of a one-point shift on two-party preferred: the Coalition is down two to 36%, and Labor up two to 39%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,958 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Note the word rare !!!
    The results, presented on Monday in a four-year assessment of the health of the ozone layer, represent a rare instance of global environmental damage being repaired, and a victory for concerted global action by governments.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/05/ozone-layer-healing-after-aerosols-un-northern-hemisphere
    I think the same degree of cooperation is very unlikely when it comes to global warming.

  2. It seems the Morrison strategists are desperately trying to raise his profile and create a family guy Aussie Battler that all fair dinkum Aussies can love and respect.

    Obviously, the ScoMo crew think achieving good personal ratings is the key to long term political success.

    Meanwhile, the real polls Primary and TPP continue to drift southwards.

    I would have thought that competence, unity and a relentless focus on policy and good community outcomes would have been the best way to advance his cahnces of governing post the next election.

    Morrison probably has the right approach if he were running for the office of Santa Claus.

  7. Fess

    Yes. With record numbers recorded voting so far I think its likely. Thats not even counting hispanics who have voted in Nevada in record numbers. They are not a cohesive voting block but given the immigration debate I would think that would also advantage the Democrats.

    With Evangelicals splitting and record numbers voting I would much prefer to be the Democrats than the GOP at this stage. Its going to be a very long night and California could be crucial and thus with its mail in vote we could be waiting weeks.

  9. This has been my favourite “day before” election piece that 538 does. Use it if you’re going to obsessively lap up each tidbit of results as they come in, to get the earliest sense possible of how the US midterm results are going to eventually land.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-election-polls-close/

    NB: set the “world clock” on your phone to Washington DC time. That corresponds to “EST” as 538 states it. That way your timing will be right for where you are.

  15. “I would have thought that competence, unity and a relentless focus on policy and good community outcomes would have been the best way to advance his chances of governing post the next election”… in government that is the only way to win, but some pollies never learn.
    People in marketing and advertising think they can sell anything….how often do we hear ‘we didn’t sell our message well enough’…

  17. Another ex-Republican urging a vote for Democrats – this time to preserve democracy.

    The midterm election Tuesday is not a primarily a choice between conservatives and liberals or their policies. It would be, in the words of Ernest Hemingway, “pretty to think so,” but it is not true.

    Yes, there are some important issues pending as we head into the 116th Congress: health care, an idiotic trade war, an arms control treaty. Yet they pale in comparison to what should be the overriding concern of every American citizen of any party or affiliation: the preservation and protection of our constitutional system of government.

    This is a serious claim. How much damage, really, can any one member of Congress, or any state or local official, make to our way of life?

    As it turns out, plenty, if they choose to run under the banner of a party that is now little more than the vehicle of an ignorant and rage-addicted cult of personality. The 2018 midterms are, more than anything else, a referendum on the corrosive changes in our political life wrought by the current president of the United States. Donald Trump himself has said so. “I’m not on the ticket,” he said last month, “but I am on the ticket, because this is also a referendum about me.”

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/11/04/election-referendum-trump-corrosive-changes-american-politics-column/1871790002/

  18. This is from the 538 article I linked just above. 9pm EST in the US will be 1:00pm EST tomorrow in Australia. Look out for calls on control of the US House about then.

    “9 p.m.

    Polls close in: Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, the rest of Kansas, the rest of Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, the rest of North Dakota, the rest of South Dakota, the rest of Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

    My guess is that this is the hour when we’ll know if Democrats will win the House (or at the very least, if they’re on track to do so).”

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-election-polls-close/

  19. Urban Wronski
    ‏

    The Australian says that when friends and former colleag­ues contacted Mr Turnbull this week to urge him to step into the shadows, the former PM was defiant, saying he would defend his legacy and “correct the record” when needed.
    Dead man walking, ScoMo said to be “infuriated.”

  20. ‘fess,
    You might like this bit of feedback from the front:

    The Republicans are bailing the boat in a Maryland district won big by Trump with a robocall from the president.

    In the call, Trump accuses “radical liberals” of taking away “seniors’ medicare” and wanting to “open our border to crime and drugs.”

    “Please, go out, make America great again, reelect congressman Andy Harris, a very special person,” Trump says.

    He won that district by 20 points in 2016. 🙂

  24. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 9:41 am
    ‘fess,
    You might like this bit of feedback from the front:

    The Republicans are bailing the boat in a Maryland district won big by Trump with a robocall from the president.

    In the call, Trump accuses “radical liberals” of taking away “seniors’ medicare” and wanting to “open our border to crime and drugs.”

    “Please, go out, make America great again, reelect congressman Andy Harris, a very special person,” Trump says.

    He won that district by 20 points in 2016.
    —————————————

    MD-01 has a Cook PVI of R+14. If a district like that even goes close, “tsunami” would be understating the “blueness” of this midterm!

  25. A delayed good morning all. The poll confirms the reality. It has been a ScumMo belly flop, not a ScumMo bounce. The hard line right wing religious fundamentalist underneath the ScumMo image is really not that warm and cuddly.

    The Pope cartoon on the Qld bus tour is brilliant. Why does a prime minister of a minority government fighting for survival go to Qld when there is a critical Victorian state election on at the opposite end of the country? Not so much as a Cup day photo op for ScumMo. The answer is obvious: Guy knows ScumMo will only cost votes and has asked ScumMo to stay away.

    The mere hint of a two election strategy next year shows the desperation. Annoy the voters so that you can stay in office long enough to pass another budget. Governing the nation? Meh. Policy reform? Hah! Holding onto power for a few more days is the only plan. It is a long time since the sole desire to hold onto power for its own sake has been so nakedly exposed.

  28. Quick Question,
    I take it that Sky will televise the midterms tomorrow, are there any other channels televivising the election during the day?

  29. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 9:43 am
    MA

    Tis luxury following an election count in daytime
    —————————————

    Eager anticipation turned to stunned horror from mid-afternoon in 2016, but your point is still well made.
    🙂

  30. torchbearer @ #114 Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 9:35 am

    “I would have thought that competence, unity and a relentless focus on policy and good community outcomes would have been the best way to advance his chances of governing post the next election”… in government that is the only way to win, but some pollies never learn.
    People in marketing and advertising think they can sell anything….how often do we hear ‘we didn’t sell our message well enough’…

    Morrison is selling quirkiness, unpredicatability and boof headed good blokiness.

    Voters in Australia tend to worship certainty, consistency and aren’t really that concerned about likeability.

  31. Robert Ball

    News 24 is doing a Mid Term special.
    _________________________
    Nath

    At least its psephological and not about a horse race ………………….. oh wait. 🙂

  33. Socrates says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 9:47 am
    “The mere hint of a two election strategy next year shows the desperation. Annoy the voters so that you can stay in office long enough to pass another budget. Governing the nation? Meh. Policy reform? Hah! Holding onto power for a few more days is the only plan. It is a long time since the sole desire to hold onto power for its own sake has been so nakedly exposed.”
    —————————————

    A point so good, and so well made, it is worth repeating just so it might get read twice.
    🙂

  34. Eager anticipation turned to stunned horror from mid-afternoon in 2016, but your point is still well made.

    Absolutely. I can still remember it vividly.

  36. C@tmomma
    says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 9:51 am
    nath @ #126 Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 9:48 am
    There is a mid term US thread here. I dislike being deluged with information on that crazy joint.
    Tough. There’s lots on PB that we dislike being deluged with. My contributions at times as well it seems.
    The scroll wheel might help you out.
    ________________________
    You gonna try and get me banned today C@t? 🙂

  37. Oooh Harry Enten knows how to stoke the drama

    I don’t think this is where it will end up, but this would legit open the door to a Dem majority if McDaniel snuck into the runoff with Espy. https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059562373772505088

    @ChangePolls

    MS Senate (n=1003)

    Mike Espy 40
    Chris McDaniel 28
    Cindy Hyde-Smith 27
    Tobey Bernard Bartee 1

    Mike Espy will almost certainly advance to a runoff election. It’s not clear who his opponent will be.

  38. nath says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 9:48 am
    There is a mid term US thread here. I dislike being deluged with information on that crazy joint.
    —————————————

    Thanks for reminding me, Nath. I’d better go copy my posts in that thread too. I forgot to put them there as well.
    🙂

  39. PTMD

    What you say isn’t not unclear. I can’t undecipher what you’re not saying or saying nevertheless. In any case it doesn’t make no difference.

    Cheers

  40. We’ve been talking about the Libs going to a half Senate election for over a year now surely. It has always been been a completely idiotic idea. Which is exactly why you could never rule out these idiots doing it.

    Also good to see Morrison’s not learnt the single most important message from Wentworth for his political fortunes.

    Namely Shut The Fuck Up.

    The more people see of Morrison the less they wish to see. The more Morrison talks to people the more they notice he says stupid shit that just makes them wish he’d stop talking at all.

    If Shorten could use some sort of mind control on Morrison to make him self destruct he’d make sure ScoMo was never out of the public’s eye and continuously announcing new brainfarts as policy. Lucky Bill doesn’t look like he needs mind control though. Morrison just doesn’t look like he can stop himself.

  43. nath @ #136 Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 9:52 am

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 9:51 am
    nath @ #126 Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 9:48 am
    There is a mid term US thread here. I dislike being deluged with information on that crazy joint.
    Tough. There’s lots on PB that we dislike being deluged with. My contributions at times as well it seems.
    The scroll wheel might help you out.
    ________________________
    You gonna try and get me banned today C@t? 🙂

    Are you kidding!?! You’re the Teacher’s Pet! I can’t, even if I wanted to. 😉

    Anyway, I have been ordered by god to be on my best behaviour, and that means leaving all the teacher’s pets alone and not poking them. 🙂

  44. I am putting up the best posts this blog has ever seen only to lose them because I have left off my name etc.

    How is this avoided?

  45. It’s just that I try to stay relatively uninformed. US politics gives me headaches. If there was no dedicated thread, then sure, but a thread has been provided. I just start developing a migraine even at the hint of hearing one of those harsh American accents.

  48. nath

    Normally I would agree with you.

    This time its the excitement!! Just imagine. The Democrats win the house. They Impeach Trump and Pence. Nancy Pelosi becomes Speaker.

    Popcorn futures through the roof!!

    The drama of it all. 🙂

  50. I like this post from a Fairfax contributor:

    Penguin

    ‘Scotty powering through the air in his taxpayer funded jet , while the “Blunder Bus ” meanders up the hiway , resplendant in its NSW blue livery , into the heart of maroon loving Nth Queensland , another cunning plan there , PM Baldrick.’

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