Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another turn of the polling screw against the Coalition, as formerly uncommitted respondents increasingly offer a negative view of the Prime Minister.

The fortnightly Essential poll — now appearing in Newspoll off weeks, praise be — follows Newspoll in recording Labor’s lead at 54-46, out from 53-47. Monthly personal ratings are better for Scott Morrison than Newspoll in that he remains in net positive territory, but the formerly undecided are breaking heavily against him, with his approval down two to 41% and disapproval up nine to 37%. Bill Shorten maintains his recent improving form, up five on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 44% – his second best result from the pollster in the past two years. However, the shift on preferred prime minister is relatively modest, with Morrison’s lead down from 42-27 to 41-29.

Other findings: 44% support Australia becoming a republic in principle, down four since May, with 32% opposed; 61% have a favourable view of Queen Elizabeth, 68% of Prince William, 70% of Prince Harry but only 33% of Prince Charles. The Guardian report is here; the full report from Essential Research, including primary votes, will be with us later today. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1028.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here, and the primary vote shifts are on the high end from what you’d expect out of a one-point shift on two-party preferred: the Coalition is down two to 36%, and Labor up two to 39%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,958 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  4. ‘Shellbell says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 9:58 am

    I am putting up the best posts this blog has ever seen only to lose them because I have left off my name etc.

    How is this avoided?’

    Enter your name etc.

  6. [‘…Morrison is spending a lot of time projecting what his strategists consider to be a relatable persona, with frequent social media posts heavy on vernacular.’]

    Your average Aussie is not as dumb as Morrison and his spivs think they are. They know a fraud when they see one, and he’s a mighty big one. He won’t go down well in Queensland, which is where elections are won or lost, at least for the last generation or so.

  7. guytaur

    Sort of irrelevant. I’m simply saying that it would be better use of their time and efforts to target federal delegates, rather than MPs.

  8. autocrat says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 10:36 am
    Bruce Haigh is not known for being diplomatic post his diplomatic career….

    I met Haigh once, many years ago. He’s an impressive person, strong-minded and true to his principles. He influenced me; provided an example of a lived commitment to justice.

  9. I read somewhere this morning that NBN will have to write down as 5G mobile networks will be available here in 2 years with the mobile network providers targeting broadband users on lower plans ie any consumer connected to the internet via slow copper fibre to the curb FTTC or even slower degraded hybrid fibre cable, HFC iethe old Optus or Foxtel cable

  11. When the press start taking the piss, your time is up :

    Q: What’s the point of the bus if you’re not on it?
    Scott Morrison: “I just got off it”.

  13. Glenn Davies is the Anglican Archbishop of Sydney:

    A fundamental community expect­ation recognises the rights of organisati­ons to hire staff who uphol­d their values. You wouldn’t expect the Liberal Party to hire a communist any more than the Labor Party would hire someone who was anti-union.

    Being gay or straight isn’t a value, you nong.

    You are going to lose your right to discriminate on the basis of sexual orientation.

    And you will accept that fact with equanimity instead of whining like a petulant bigot.

  14. Via 538 the Democrats have very solid leads in the latest polling – into double figures

    Hopefully this shows the majority of Americans are sensible and have not been swayed by an objectionable buffoon and his media

    That media influenced also by Market players looking for further tax cuts to drive an already sugar hit market due to imprudent tax cuts even higher with the price being equality

    And where I refer to equality, there will never be equality because we all take different courses but we do contribute to a level of equality by paying taxes and otherwise contributing – so there is a base line

  18. Fox legal analyst outlines how Democrats can expose Trump’s closely guarded secrets if they take the House

    While interviewing with Fox News’ Shep Smith, Napolitano said that the most powerful weapon against Trump that Democrats would gain is the “subpoena power.”

    “We said they will begin with the president personally. They will begin with Justice Kavanaugh to determine whether he lied under oath at his confirmation hearings. And with respect to the president to determine why James Comey was fired. The most powerful weapon they have is the subpoena power. Which Democrats have not had since Donald Trump was president. Can they subpoena his tax returns? Yes, they can. Will they get them? Yes, they will. They can draw up conclusions,” Napolitano said.

    They then discussed how Democrats will draw parallels to Trump’s team communication with Russians.

    “Reportedly there have been 87 communications between members of [Trump’s campaign team] and Russians. That will be up for grabs,” Smith said.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/fox-legal-analyst-outlines-how-democrats-can-expose-trumps-closely-guarded-secrets-if-they-take-the-house/

  19. “It will be interesting to see how Tony Jones treats Turnbull. Gentle regret, or attack mode.”
    Jones will never attack anyone with Liberal Party connections, especially if they are male.

  24. FMD
    There is an advert on Fox to donate $200 to buy 200 bales of hay for farmers. Who else gets this help when their business/family finances go tits up, particulary when they repeatly vote in the bastards who are refusing to address the big issue making their businesses impossible, climate change.

    Eff ’em.


  26. Vogon Poet says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 10:50 am

    When the press start taking the piss, your time is up :

    Q: What’s the point of the bus if you’re not on it?
    Scott Morrison: “I just got off it”.

    I think today’s pope cartoon is the most devastation I have seen for a while. It will be interesting to see if the others follow and if Morrison morphs into a clown in all.

  27. Thanks guys and gals

    Sky and ABC24 it is then. As it was in 2016.
    The Budweiser is on ice, the hot dogs and buns bought, plenty of mustard and ketchup on hand.
    Friends coming over.
    Looking forward to the day and a better result than 2016.
    Have a good one folks.
    BTW
    Am informed that Morrison has got on to the AEC re four dates, two in later March and two in early April.
    That’s when, but whether it is both houses or just a half Senate, not sure yet. But one source says half Senate only, and he is normally on the money.
    Enjoy tomorrow.

  30. autocrat says: Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 11:01 am

    Mueller has been quiet recently. Probably staying out of the mid-terms.

    *******************************************************

    There is some sort of unwritten rule to not bring up ‘political stuff’ – I think its like 60 days before the mid-terms

    Look for Mueller shoes to drop big time after the mid-term especially if the Dems take one or two of the
    House/Senate

    mueller investigation

    Anticipation builds around Mueller as 60-day election window nears

    The cutoff is not a hard and fast rule, but some former prosecutors expect Mueller to bend over backward to avoid taking steps that might be construed as improper before the midterms.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/30/mueller-midterms-russia-probe-election-window-805491

  31. I met Haigh once, many years ago. He’s an impressive person, strong-minded and true to his principles. He influenced me; provided an example of a lived commitment to justice.

    He’s certainly all of that. And also somewhere to the left of Frank Hardy, and this needs to be taken into account when reading his criticisms.

    He also used to make stunning olive oil, and a pretty good Cab Sauv. Not on the farm any more, sadly.

  33. PTMD

    If I was you I wouldn’t be unreluctant to hesitate to offer speech writing services to the PM.

    Anyway he wouldn’t be unable to resist your offer, because you wouln’t not be unable to fill his head with ALP ideas.

  34. BK @ #28 Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 8:02 am

    Pruning migration is low-hanging policy fruit compared with reducing greenhouse emissions says Stephen Saunders.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-do-we-have-a-big-australia-20181030-p50ct2.html

    Pruning migration is necessary for us to meet our Paris commitments. Thankfully, the message seems to be getting out …

    Compared with the difficulty of reducing greenhouse emissions, pruning population growth is low-hanging policy fruit. The report modestly proposes dialling Australia’s migration intake back to the 80,000 to 90,000 levels of the 1990s, and reeling in net overseas migration. That would allow us to aim for population growth under 1 per cent a year. This would be more in line with our realistic carrying – and servicing – capacities.

  35. Puffy
    $200 gets you half of one bale.

    I assume that when good times return farmers will be queuing up to hand out free meat to the homeless and that the Morrison Government will be giving freight subsidies for this to happen.

  36. This sounds very familiar

    A cross-party group of MPs has called for a review of the government’s controversial benefit sanctions regime after concluding that it was arbitrary, punitive and at times “pointlessly cruel”.

    The Commons work and pensions committee inquiry said the human cost of stopping benefit payments to claimants judged to have breached job centre rules was too high and there was scant evidence that it helped or incentivised people to get a job.

    It called for people with disabilities and chronic health conditions who have limited capability for work to be exempt from sanctions and said penalties for single parents and care leavers should be vastly reduced.

    “We have heard stories of terrible and unnecessary hardship from people who’ve been sanctioned. They were left bewildered and driven to despair at becoming, often with their children, the victims of a sanctions regime that is at times so counterproductive it just seems pointlessly cruel,” said the committee’s chair, Frank Field.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/06/mps-call-for-review-of-pointlessly-cruel-benefit-sanctions?CMP=twt_gu

  37. This is the paragraph where Haigh distils most of his anti-Shorten rhetoric in an article that is mainly concerned with LNP shortcomings:

    “Perhaps the biggest and saddest clown is Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, who is short on courage and ideas when he should be bursting with both. He has gone along with the Government’s cruel refugee policy of deterrence. He has agreed with defence expenditure, which has us building submarines for between $60-$90 billion for a strategic gain yet to be explained. And a donation of $500 million to the new Canberra theme park and ADF recruiting centre, the Australian War Memorial. And he has said he will keep the Home Affairs Department. Is Shorten’s me-tooism a joke or a tragedy? I’m not laughing.”

    Regardless of whether you agree with Haigh’s views on refugees, defence or the war memorial I call bullshit on his claim that Shorten is short on courage and ideas. Demonstrable bullshit. Bill is short on neither. It’s a pretty sad article that uses the fact that the author disagrees on certain line items of policy as the only evidence to support his main accusation. Lazy even.

    The raison de atre of federal Labor is to be found in policy areas of health, education, infrastructure and inequality. The only evidence of policy cowardice I can see in those areas is the “we will hold a review” line into the level of Centrelink payments. That’s it. Curiously this was not mentioned by the author.

  41. Robert Ball says:
    Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 11:03 am

    Am informed that Morrison has got on to the AEC re four dates, two in later March and two in early April.
    That’s when, but whether it is both houses or just a half Senate, not sure yet. But one source says half Senate only, and he is normally on the money.
    Enjoy tomorrow.

    If they go to a half-Senate election only voters will see it as a national by-election/referendum on the events of the preceding 6 months, the leadership of Morrison and a cowardly avoidance of a House election. Since the control of government would not be on the line, it would be reasonable to expect the Liberal PV in the Senate to fall into the low 20s.

    The LNP would be totally massacred, electorally speaking. If they thought Wentworth was bad, they will experience something they will never forget.

    Even so, the Liberals are so inept they may do it. They are motivated by two things. Greed and fear. They will likely get everything completely wrong, as they have been doing ever since March 2016.

  42. Huge effort from BK, wow.

    Peter Hartcher kicks off his Morrison foreign policy piece with this:

    Scott Morrison lamented that foreign policy lately is too much about transactions, not enough about values. “We are more than the sum of our deals,” he told the Asia Society in Sydney on Thursday. “We are better than that.”

    Better than what? Better than anything Morrison is dishing up for starters.

    Which is a timely reminder that when Morrison was minister for Locking Up Children, all tough guy and a couple of signatures ago, this campaign was spawned;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=BSSxL6FZLbc

  43. The Mueller Race Will Resume After All the Votes Are Counted

    But after all the votes are counted, it is very possible that a whole new race will resume. That is the contest over whether the release of findings from the Mueller investigation will beat out attempts by Donald Trump to stop it.

    https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/11/05/the-mueller-race-will-resume-after-all-the-votes-are-counted/

    Mueller could soon roar back into the news

    Robert Mueller could have some big announcements later this week. An indicted member of Congress still hopes to win re-election

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/04/politics/ip-forecast/index.html

    Mueller’s Gone Quiet, But Expect Some Post-Midterms Surprises

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/11/mueller-post-midterms-surprises.html

    Mueller could have big news after the midterms

    Just the name “Mueller” makes the President angry, a Trump insider said in a weekend exchange. If the election goes poorly for the White House, this source suggested the President will be on edge, anyway. And if the investigations then roar back into the news, “I’m worried about a volcano.”

    https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/national/mueller-could-have-big-news-after-the-midterms

  44. Boerwar,
    Oh yes, it will be free barbeques and salads for all, and Colworths will rebate 30c of every dairy purchase back to the customer.

    Maybe remote Aboriginal Communities might get a transport subsidy so their fresh good does not cost double to pay for trucking it in.

  47. briefly

    In my view; even if the voters put caution aside and give labor the senate; there will be no satisfaction and they will really swing the bat when the representative election occurs.

    If the Liberals go for a half senate; they have given up and are not even trying to save the furniture.

  48. Andrew, it no longer hurts Labor to be attacked from the left on those issues. It probably helps them, since it makes it far more difficult to be attacked from the Right, where power usually resides in Australia. Shorten has avoided all the dangerous missiles from the Right….and the results can be read in the 2PP polling. The clods that have been running RW political projects must be tearing their hair out. They have been unable to troll Shorten and have simply strengthened him.

  50. I’m parking this cut and paste from Guytaur so I can comment later on today when I have more time. Suffice to say that while the author is attempting to provide some balance in his description of the Hawke-Keating era he consistently misses the point when listing all the line items he uses as evidence of the Labor Govermnment “enacting neoliberal measures”. As I said, more later.

    “Australian Labor, which governed during the 1980s, seemingly provided a stable center-left contrast to Reagan and Thatcher. Though some dispute it, the Bob Hawke-Paul Keating model was a version of what would come to be characterized in the 1990s as Third Way social democracy. It enacted neoliberal measures — such as the privatization of the state-owned bank and airlines, ending free tertiary education, and dismantling centralized wage bargaining — at the same time as it expanded universal health care coverage and taxed capital gains. Paul Keating, then Treasurer and later Prime Minister, was the architect of many of these neoliberal reforms and a key figure in the right-wing faction of Australian Labor, having formed the right-wing NSW Centre Unity faction in 1979.”

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