Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another turn of the polling screw against the Coalition, as formerly uncommitted respondents increasingly offer a negative view of the Prime Minister.

The fortnightly Essential poll — now appearing in Newspoll off weeks, praise be — follows Newspoll in recording Labor’s lead at 54-46, out from 53-47. Monthly personal ratings are better for Scott Morrison than Newspoll in that he remains in net positive territory, but the formerly undecided are breaking heavily against him, with his approval down two to 41% and disapproval up nine to 37%. Bill Shorten maintains his recent improving form, up five on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 44% – his second best result from the pollster in the past two years. However, the shift on preferred prime minister is relatively modest, with Morrison’s lead down from 42-27 to 41-29.

Other findings: 44% support Australia becoming a republic in principle, down four since May, with 32% opposed; 61% have a favourable view of Queen Elizabeth, 68% of Prince William, 70% of Prince Harry but only 33% of Prince Charles. The Guardian report is here; the full report from Essential Research, including primary votes, will be with us later today. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1028.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here, and the primary vote shifts are on the high end from what you’d expect out of a one-point shift on two-party preferred: the Coalition is down two to 36%, and Labor up two to 39%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,958 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Torchbearer and nath
    “They never seem to launch any legal action though..”
    Exactly. It’s often a face-saving, time-buying response. Still, Ms Raper (unfortunate name) could be barking mad and making up the phone calls and complaints from two years ago. My guess is the legal action will be dropped and Foley has some explaining to do to his wife and family.

  2. Great. Our commercial broadcasting newtworks will broadcast crap, fake news and right wing drivel to our Pacific neighbors. Labor should cancel this initiative as soon as it can re-establish the Australis Network.

  3. Nath said

    You should have seen what Lizzie, TPOF and imacca said earlier. TPOF said, the sexual assault was a ‘human failing and not political’.

    ___________________________________
    What I actually said:

    “Without getting into the details of the various allegations regarding sexual assault – and I’ve never made a comment on that until now – the critical difference is whether the person concerned (and it can be a male) is prepared to pursue the matter or not. Whatever the motive, some of the Greens’s accusers did make formal reports, as did the woman who accused Barnaby Joyce.

    “My concern is for those people for whom going public is traumatic (and for reasons other than being in the full glare of publicity) and being put out there without consultation, let alone agreement, for political purposes.

    “As for allegations of sexual harassment and assault, these are human failings, rather than political ones. I don’t go there because people who do it do not conform to any colour, age, gender or political leaning. Although in my experience the biggest moralists are the greatest hypocrites (whether ideologues on the left or the right).”

  4. There will be a lot of journos ringing the witness of the alleged incident, Sean Nicholls who works at the ABC, for his version of the story.

  5. One thing’s for sure, if it were a Liberal politician the ABC wouldn’t be promoting this NSW scandal. That’s not to say the NSW Labor guy shouldn’t have resigned.


  6. nath says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 5:44 pm
    Ven
    says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 5:41 pm
    5:32pm@pm
    He has abused everybody
    ___________________
    I don’t believe that I have abused you Ven. Please apologise.

    I was searching for last 1 1/2 hours for the post where you abuse me but unfortunately I could not find it. So I apologise

  7. Dio

    Nicholls’ employer at the time, Fairfax, must be wondering why he didn’t know news when he saw it.

    On a serious note, I reckon there would be any number of journalists with notebooks full of recollections about similar incidents. Probably a few involving their colleagues and bosses.

    It used to be that prominent people in business, politics, sport, the arts, the media etc … could get away with stuff. As the sportsmen said, what happened on tour stayed on tour.

    It was wrong.

    Shaking this tree could cause all sorts of things to come to light. Some people might wonder about being careful what they wish for.

  8. I heard someone today say these words. “Foley is in trouble.” I had to look up who that was. Now I now. I suspect I’m not the only one who now knows. (I don’t follow NSW politics.)

  9. What the fuck does Foley hope to achieve, being presumably a rational self interested person, from going to court about this?

    The only possibility that makes sense is that Foley hopes to regain the leadership later on.

    Can anyone else think of a good reason why he would do this?

  10. Late Riser,
    It looks like the Senate only sits next week (12-15 Nov) and then both houses sit between 26 Nov and 6 Dec, so two weeks later. There might be a Newspoll because of the Senate.

  11. Ven says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 6:58 pm


    nath says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 5:44 pm
    Ven
    says:
    He has abused everybody
    ___________________
    I don’t believe that I have abused you Ven. Please apologise.

    I was searching for last 1 1/2 hours for the post where you abuse me but unfortunately I could not find it. So I apologise
    ______________
    Thank you Ven.

  12. Ms Raper’s story looks detailed and credible. Is Foley suggesting that she is making it all up?

    Foley needs to go quietly now, ideally from the Parliament as well.

  13. lizzie,

    I guess we now know the reason the bus stopped at Townsville. It’s almost as if words were said, something like, “Nice government. Shame if anything…”

  14. Well I recall being criticised here a few days ago for suggesting Foley should resign. If the allegations were false, and Foley called Raper a few days ago, you would think Foley would have called David Elliot to confirm it was false by now. So like others here I will not hold my breath waiting for the court case.

    If true, I am sure Foley is not the only politician to have done this sort of thing. But he would be sacked for it in any job I have ever held. The age of entitlement needs to end in more ways than one.

  15. Cud Chewer

    As someone suggested earlier, cry innocent when the the press klieg lights are on you and then quietly drop legal action after the circus leaves town.

  16. poroti

    That’s what any decent PR person would advise you against.

    Foley is best advised to say “I have limited recollection but I take her on her word and I have apologised”.

    A lot of people would give him credit for that and in any case the whole thing would soon be forgotten. Taking it to court just keeps it in the media mill.

  17. Sohar. In that case hmm. Well I am up for score keeping if anyone wants to throw them out there. It doesn’t take a lot of effort to keep track. My guess is Newspoll will be stable at 54/46. Most folks don’t pay much day to day attention. Short of big events change happens gradually.

  18. Late Riser I think that the ScoMo’s bus tour has kept him in the media for all the wrong reasons. He’s being ridiculed. Perhaps even more so than a couple of weeks ago.

    And then all the US politics and now this has taken oxygen out of anything else other than the bus stunt.

  19. Newspoll will be next week. They like to have a shit sandwich for someone to chow down on when the come back for a sitting week.

    That someone is almost never Senators though. Especially when they only have to wait one more week to hand a fresh sandy to the PM or LOTO because the reps are in town.

  20. Perhaps Foley’s just disputing whether his hand was inside or outside Raper’s knickers?

    Seriously though, it does seem like a strange thing to do in company, then just shake hands and go home. What was Foley going to do? Get a room? Something doesn’t make sense here. But I’m (relatively) normal, not a stressed-out, sleep-deprived pollie, or journo.

    Foley might be arguing that it was someone else’s hand. Company, people pissed to varying extents, low lights, I wasn’t there, so don’t know… but no one on this board was there, and THEY don’t know, either.

  21. Cud Chewer, You triggered an interesting thought about Morrison being ridiculed. I have noticed references to ‘clown’ and ‘circus’. When things are steady ridicule is embarrassing, but should an ‘event’ happen now it might not be a pick-me-up for a seriously confidence drained government. It might be quite the reverse.

  22. Following Trump’s press conference today where he launched personal attacks against three journalists who asked legitimate and respectful questions, one of those abused journalists CNN’s Acosta observed:
    “We were all expecting the President to do a victory dance about the Senate. Instead, it was a pity party.”

    As Lawrence O’Donnell opined, Trump has hit the panic button. Replays of today’s Lawrence O’Donnell and Rachel Maddow shows are not to be missed by Pollbludgers with even a quark of interest in American politics. http://www.msnbc.com

    The game is afoot!

  23. Bushfire Bill @ #1740 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 6:37 pm

    Psyclaw, I am speaking passionately… keep your puritanical, wowserish virtue signalling to yourself.

    Yes, you would think some people would take a dose of reality before they start their wowserish moralising, but no, we must all be as pure as the driven snow in thought and deed these days.

    Me? I prefer to leave these things up to the law, as opposed to thinking I am the last word in the law.

  24. Cud

    A lot of people would give him credit for that and in any case the whole thing would soon be forgotten. Taking it to court just keeps it in the media mill.

    ______________________________

    Depends. If he says he can’t recall and the allegation stays out there he is ripe for a criminal charge against him. As pointed out by a number of posters here.

    Personally, assuming that Ms Raper’s statement is true, I think he should have just resigned and used some generic terms that did not go into the details. However, I can see some news outlets could have scented a story and published something that outed Ms Raper anyway (a la Ms Norvill). My suspicion – and it is purely that and based on accepting Ms Raper’s statement in its entirety – is that the rejection of the claims and the statement of intention to start defamation proceedings may well be intended to avoid criminal proceedings. Either way, Ms Raper’s wish for this grief for her to end will be ignored by people playing politics (including prosecution political games).

  25. Cud Chewer says Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 7:05 pm

    What the fuck does Foley hope to achieve, being presumably a rational self interested person, from going to court about this?

    The only possibility that makes sense is that Foley hopes to regain the leadership later on.

    Can anyone else think of a good reason why he would do this?

    I doubt he has any intention of going to court. I would be surprised if he even commences proceedings.

  26. Player One

    Having been through Thousand Oaks on the inland route between LA and Santa Barbara, it is hard to imagine a place less likely to be the site of a mass shooting. But I suppose it demonstrates the increased risk you face anywhere in the USA.

  27. Australian people appreciate contrition.

    Foley’s best option to save his career and his family is to show contrition.

    Admit to being drunk and stupid. Genuinely apologise to the journalist and his family. Go to the backbench – and give everyone time to deal with it.

    Honesty and contrition is the best solution.

  28. Amazing

    CNN Business
    ‏Verified account @CNNBusiness
    1h1 hour ago

    JUST IN: Robyn Denholm, the chief financial officer of Australian telecommunications company Telstra, is replacing Elon Musk as head of Tesla’s board

  29. I’m still of the opinion that on close reading Ms. Rapers statement doesn’t seem quite right… would Foley ring her & talk for 19 minutes confessing all & say he was resigning.. is Foley a catholic that feels he needs to confess, for what reason.

  30. Sceptic says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 7:47 pm

    I’m still of the opinion that on close reading Ms. Rapers statement doesn’t seem quite right… would Foley ring her & talk for 19 minutes confessing all & say he was resigning.. is Foley a catholic that feels he needs to confess, for what reason.
    _________________________
    I knew you would be sceptical about this.

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