Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another turn of the polling screw against the Coalition, as formerly uncommitted respondents increasingly offer a negative view of the Prime Minister.

The fortnightly Essential poll — now appearing in Newspoll off weeks, praise be — follows Newspoll in recording Labor’s lead at 54-46, out from 53-47. Monthly personal ratings are better for Scott Morrison than Newspoll in that he remains in net positive territory, but the formerly undecided are breaking heavily against him, with his approval down two to 41% and disapproval up nine to 37%. Bill Shorten maintains his recent improving form, up five on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 44% – his second best result from the pollster in the past two years. However, the shift on preferred prime minister is relatively modest, with Morrison’s lead down from 42-27 to 41-29.

Other findings: 44% support Australia becoming a republic in principle, down four since May, with 32% opposed; 61% have a favourable view of Queen Elizabeth, 68% of Prince William, 70% of Prince Harry but only 33% of Prince Charles. The Guardian report is here; the full report from Essential Research, including primary votes, will be with us later today. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1028.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here, and the primary vote shifts are on the high end from what you’d expect out of a one-point shift on two-party preferred: the Coalition is down two to 36%, and Labor up two to 39%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,958 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Between them, Andrews and Foley have totally succeeded in starving Fake Dinkum of 24/7 news cycle oxygen.
    Tonight at 8 pm the Empty Leather Jacket might re-ignite the flames, but.

  2. frednk
    says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 6:00 pm
    nath
    So it’s 5 years.
    The question is; was attempting ( I ware a tight belt not a low cut dress) to slip her hand down my trousers assault. Was the attempt sexual? She could have been trying to warm her hand and I completely miss interpreted what was happening and I should not have taken off like a bondi tram.
    _____________________________________
    First of all I have doubts that any woman would be interested in you. But let’s assume she was drunk and went for the oldfella. I think you said you stopped her from it, so I suppose it is attempted indecent assault. I guess it’s up to whether you reported it or not.

  3. Okaaaaaaaaaaaaay.

    Wasn’t expecting that. Sure I did allow for the idea that Foley didn’t do it, but the clarity of the accusation and especially the naming of a witness and details of the calls to apologise, resign and then renounce the resignation were just too precise to not be easily demolished if they were wrong. So the allowance was too small to even bother with.

    I think I’ll still go with my initial reaction that Foley is getting some terrible legal advice here. Who’s he going to sue? Raper? For making a public statement in which Raper names her corroborating witness? FFS she could quite easily walk into a police station with Sean Nichols.

    Madness.

  4. Steve Davis

    At this time your question is moot, because as far as I know there is no civil or criminal action announced by anyone.

    Right now I believe it is a political matter, ie should someone involved in the allegations, including the recent phone call allegations, be NSW LOTO.

  5. With those allegations floating around, Luke Foley has to resign as state leader.
    As he thinks he is innocent, he has started defamation proceedings.

    NOW all men aspiring to positions of power had better keep their pants zipped and their hands in their pockets. The perfect political leader for these times is a prig

  6. Ratsak
    News saying he is suing the ABC.
    “In a brief statement to media, Mr Foley insisted the allegations were “false” and he intended to begin defamation proceedings against the ABC”

  7. billie
    The perfect political leader for these times is a prig
    __________________________
    Please. You don’t have to be a prig to not go around indecently assaulting people. Most men understand that no matter how much they drink.

  8. Darc
    Thank you for that. Much appreciated. My reading, FWIW, is not that the Tele’s witnesses lied as such but that they were rather sloppy.
    IMO, Rush’s witness were, by way of contrast, tight.

  9. billie @ #1703 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 6:07 pm

    With those allegations floating around, Luke Foley has to resign as state leader.
    As he thinks he is innocent, he has started defamation proceedings.

    NOW all men aspiring to positions of power had better keep their pants zipped and their hands in their pockets. The perfect political leader for these times is a prig

    The image of all men with their hands in their pockets leaves a lot to the imagination 🙂

  10. Not entering any discussion on the matter but I am wondering if someone knows the timeline order in the public raising of the Foley-Raper matter.
    Was it raised first by David Elliott in State Parliament or by Eric Abetz to an ABC representative in the recent Senate Estimates ?

  11. Ok, myself like others took Rapers statement at face value. Very plausible.

    Foley resigned. I think that, whatever, he had to do that with an election coming up. The accusation at this stage would be too much of an albatross around the ALP’s neck to realistically cope with. With Foley resigned (is that just from leadership, or from parliament??) this particular accusation may not be a factor come the election.

    Anyway, the accusation, which may be true or not, will now be tested on evidence or settled between the parties. Hope both of them survive it mostly intact.

    “FFS she could quite easily walk into a police station with Sean Nichols.”

    And phone records??? Foley has a right to defend himself, same as anyone, but this is going to go very messy.

  12. I find that the minimisation of the Raper allegations by Frednyk and BB is quite over the top.

    Therefore in BB’s words I am a PB “puritan or idiot”.

    It is now my view that BB and frednyk are good examples of a particular subgroup withinthe species “old white man” who possess the values and attitudes of a bygone era in regard to their understanding of unwanted sexual actions.

  13. Roger,

    I don’t think the ABC have made a statement have they? They have simply reported verbatim Ms Raper’s statement. That’s just a news organisation reporting news. And as such a very very different kettle of fish to Rush v News.

    It is Raper that has defamed Foley. Problem for him is that she says she has an eyewitness to the alleged incident and that both discussed the incident at the time. There’s plenty there for a truth defence if Nichols backs her up.

    I think P1 might have the rights of it. A cheap ploy to shut down the media until after the election when they will lose interest.

    Not a very noble ploy I might say if true.


  14. NOW all men aspiring to positions of power had better keep their pants zipped and their hands in their pockets. The perfect political leader for these times is a prig

    No office parties, no booze, no flirting, no responding to flirting, no sleeping with anyone before marriage.

    The problem is grabbing someone by the pussy in now presented as being the same as brushing a breast while performing on stage.

  15. FWIW, I reckon Foley’s resignation can only improve the ALP’s chances at the next election.

    Foley was a dud. His replacement (whoever it is) could not possibly be any worse.

    Makes you wonder if the leak really was from someone within in the ALP.

  16. I find that the minimisation of the Raper allegations by Frednyk and BB is quite over the top.

    Well flog me to death with a limp lettuce leaf. What ARE you rabbiting on about now, Psyclaw?

  17. But you do seem to be atrophying into a grumpy old white man in the Latham mold.

    Ranting on a blog may be the only thing that dissuades Boerwar from seeking preselection as a One Nation candidate.

    Overweening sense of white male grievance? Check.

    Contempt for people who aim for a less unequal distribution of income and wealth? Check.

    Paternalistic attitude towards the most marginalised people in society? Check.

    Reflexive disbelief of women who report sexual misconduct? Check.

    He has the makings of a bog standard One Nation candidate.

    Perhaps it is a good thing that he vents those grievances and insecurities in a blog instead of bringing them to a legislative body.

  18. Imacca

    Phone call records between the two might be a big obstacle to Mr Foley, if they exist.

    Ms Raper could refer the matter to police, and there is evidently a direct witness. Or she might take civil action against him.

    But based on what she has said, she might do nothing and preserve whatever privacy she considers to remain, and save herself further trauma from the legal process.

  19. Psyclaw
    says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 6:15 pm
    I find that the minimisation of the Raper allegations by Frednyk and BB is quite over the top.
    _______________________
    You should have seen what Lizzie, TPOF and imacca said earlier. TPOF said, the sexual assault was a ‘human failing and not political’.

  20. Discussion on The Drum suggests that accusation of Foley’s misbehaviour under Parl privilege has been used by ?David Elliott to get rid of him, but that the victim is really the female, used by politicians for their own ends.

  21. Nikolai writes:

    Reflexive disbelief of women who report sexual misconduct?

    Or..

    Reflexive belief of women who report sexual misconduct?

    Which is worse?

  22. Roger,

    Nothing in the ABC statement can possibly be twisted to be defamatory to Foley. The only time he is mentioned by name is in relation to the demonstrable fact that allegations were made against him in the media and the NSW and Federal parliaments.

    Everything else is about how the ABC has supported Raper.

  23. Luke Foley losing the leadership removes one barnacle from the good burghers of NSW waiting with their baseball bats for Gladys.

    And Michael Daley is a good Marcellin College Catholic boy who replaced an absolute star in the seat of Maroubra on 2005.

  24. lizzie
    says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 6:24 pm
    Discussion on The Drum suggests that accusation of Foley’s misbehaviour under Parl privilege has been used by ?David Elliott to get rid of him, but that the victim is really the female, used by politicians for their own ends.
    ____________________________
    And I would add, allegedly indecently assaulted by another politician.

  25. “Not a very noble ploy I might say if true.”

    Nor is finding a way to insert a hand through the back a dress, under underpants and come to rest on buttocks. Of a journalist, in front of another journalist and in a public place. …

    It’s not like his job entailed carrying her seemingly lifeless body across a theatre stage whilst morning the death of her character is some play thingy …

  26. Foley saying ‘I am looking into defamation action’ is a common ploy used to try to save some face in the midst of disgrace.
    They never seem to launch any legal action though..

  27. “Foley was a dud. His replacement (whoever it is) could not possibly be any worse.”

    Have your met Michael Daley? Or heard him speak in public?

    Whenever I see him I instinctively go to hand him some legal documents to file in the Registry or serve on some witness.

  28. Scott Morrison says he will not be tuning into the ABC’s Q&A program tonight to watch his predecessor Malcolm Turnbull’s first media appearance since he was ousted by Liberal MPs.

    “I’m flying home to Sydney tonight,” he told reporters in Townsville this morning, “I wish him the best and if I asked him a question I would say how are you going?”

  29. Torchbearer
    says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 6:30 pm
    Foley saying ‘I am looking into defamation action’ is a common ploy used to try to save some face in the midst of disgrace.
    They never seem to launch any legal action though..
    ___________________________
    And also good to tell the wife. ‘Honey I’m going to sue’. Later, ‘Honey, the lawyers said its too risky, we could lose the house. Dam it’.

  30. sprocket_ @ #1732 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 6:30 pm

    Scott Morrison says he will not be tuning into the ABC’s Q&A program tonight to watch his predecessor Malcolm Turnbull’s first media appearance since he was ousted by Liberal MPs.

    “I’m flying home to Sydney tonight,” he told reporters in Townsville this morning, “I wish him the best and if I asked him a question I would say how are you going?”

    Flying home on his bus!

  31. Your a hard marker Andrew_E

    Daley was Chief Lawyer for the NRMA before Parliament, so maybe he hasn’t shaken off the lawyers boring burden. From an electability perspective, he is better than Foley.

  32. If I could interrupt for a moment… ScoMo at work again.

    Ben Oquist

    How utterly idiotic. Australia has a national broadcaster with the most extensive international reach of any domestic network. Millions were spent to leverage that into the region. Then Abbott axed it. Now the govt will give taxpayer dollars to private sector

  33. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1737 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 6:30 pm

    Have your met Michael Daley? Or heard him speak in public?

    No, but I’ve seen Foley speak. He’s very unimpressive. Actually, the most common reaction amongst the people I have discussed him with is “sleazo”. Those few that knew who he was, I should add.

    Whenever I see him I instinctively go to hand him some legal documents to file in the Registry or serve on some witness.

    Well, at least he’s not invisible. That’s got to count for something.

  34. Ellen Fanning:Journo

    So this is the new normal is it? A woman decides not to pursue sexual harassment allegations. Another man with his own agenda decides to make the alleged incident public. The woman gets dragged into a defamation case. What is this? The Stone Age? #lukefoley

  35. lizzie @ #1741 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 2:37 pm

    If I could interrupt for a moment… ScoMo at work again.

    Ben Oquist

    How utterly idiotic. Australia has a national broadcaster with the most extensive international reach of any domestic network. Millions were spent to leverage that into the region. Then Abbott axed it. Now the govt will give taxpayer dollars to private sector

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Yes, and they have maintained much of it, despite funding cuts, broadcasting now as Australia Plus.

    A further attempt to place public money in private hands. 🙁

  36. I sense a disinterest in Newspoll this evening. I don’t know if we should expect one Sunday or Monday, but I am assuming there won’t be. If that changes and anyone wants to have a guess I’m happy to keep score.

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