Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another turn of the polling screw against the Coalition, as formerly uncommitted respondents increasingly offer a negative view of the Prime Minister.

The fortnightly Essential poll — now appearing in Newspoll off weeks, praise be — follows Newspoll in recording Labor’s lead at 54-46, out from 53-47. Monthly personal ratings are better for Scott Morrison than Newspoll in that he remains in net positive territory, but the formerly undecided are breaking heavily against him, with his approval down two to 41% and disapproval up nine to 37%. Bill Shorten maintains his recent improving form, up five on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 44% – his second best result from the pollster in the past two years. However, the shift on preferred prime minister is relatively modest, with Morrison’s lead down from 42-27 to 41-29.

Other findings: 44% support Australia becoming a republic in principle, down four since May, with 32% opposed; 61% have a favourable view of Queen Elizabeth, 68% of Prince William, 70% of Prince Harry but only 33% of Prince Charles. The Guardian report is here; the full report from Essential Research, including primary votes, will be with us later today. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1028.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here, and the primary vote shifts are on the high end from what you’d expect out of a one-point shift on two-party preferred: the Coalition is down two to 36%, and Labor up two to 39%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,958 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Deploring sexual harassment and sexual assault is not wowserism.

    False accusations of sexual harassment and sexual assault are very rare. These offences are drastically under-reported.

  2. QandA is on my banned list but I see Amy Remeikis is live blogging the show at The Guardian.

    I like her style. She calls bullshit when she sees it.

  3. There is no doubt that there are statistical probabilities as they apply to, for example, domestic violence.
    My view is that these probabilities should help drive policy settings and resourcing decisions.
    For example, here are some changes that I believe would make systemic changes for domestic violence:
    1. Ankle banding for all AVO and restraining orders. Automatic jail for those who breach the.
    2. Sufficient supply of emergency accommondation for battered women and their children.
    3. Women in domestic violence legal actions having the ability to provide evidence remotely.
    4. Women in domestic violence legal actions not having to be cross-examined by the men who are charged with domestic violence.
    5. Consideration of whether a lower threshold of evidence should operate in the domestic violence space is, IMO, warranted.

    I do not believe that an automatic assumption that all allegations of domestic violence must be true is a solution.

  4. C@tmomma @ #1802 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 3:58 pm

    I guess we’ll see the leather jacket tonight, it’s a pretty cool night in Sydney.


    According to Amy it was auctioned off.

    And for those wondering if THE leather jacket will make an appearance:

    You’ll be disappointed. He auctioned it off for charity in November 2011.

    But he did buy another one.

  5. People have to be adults and be accountable…and they have to be prepared to stand up and explain why they do things… and none of them have.

  6. Names Dutton, Cormann, Hunt, Ciobo… it never occurred to me that those people would act in a way that was so damaging to the Government, the Party and the Nation…

  7. Interesting discussion between Leigh Sales and Latingle, linking the Rush and Foley situations, in that the women in both situations have had disclosure taken out of their hands, arguably to their detriment.

    On the one hand we have the right of women to be free of sexual harassment. But they should not be believed out of hand (and of course, nor condemned).

    On the other hand we have men involved who do not believe (or claim not to believe) that they are sexual harassers, either on the facts, or on the interpretation of the facts.

    Many women in this situation say they are reluctant to complain, because of the potential for retribution, damage to family amenity, and even career ruin… or all three. No doubt this is real concern. But there is always the possibility that this could become a plenary excuse for inaction, or mischief.

    The men, for their part, may be too old or stupid to see that their behaviour was excessive. Or they may genuinely – and honorably – believe that they or their actions have been misunderstood, or misinterpreted. Alternatively, they may seek to kick the defamation ball into touch, string things out, delay, obfuscate, muddy the waters, to see how much nerve the other side really has.

    Each case is different, and should be assessed on its merits.

  8. I would not anticipate that Cabinet Ministers would act so self-destructively…
    They are self-centered bottom feeders, why would they not?

  9. We had 2 exemplary Public Servants heading Treasury and the RBA in 2008 – giving frank and fearless advice, advice which was accepted by the government of the day

    In the matter consuming the minds of some on this blog

    An allegation has been made

    The allegation has been denied

    The process by which the allegation has come into the public domain and not courtesy of the person making the allegation (so her privacy and her position has been compromised by others) is a matter which needs to be addressed

    In all matters there is recourse by taking an allegation to the authorities – and the authorities then lay charges in a Court of Law given their review

    The matter is then judged by a judiciary officer or a jury

    That is process

    And, at times, the old saying that the law is an ass is supported

    Because the law reflects society

  10. Watching Turnbull makes one wonder as to why they elected this jerk to lead them.
    Turnbull arrived in Federal parliament a conceited type and has managed to maintain that conceit even after having been dump mid term by a mob of plotters.
    The government is better without Turnbull.
    The Liberals have reached a nadir.
    Is he going back to New York?

  11. Lenore Taylor
    ‏Verified account @lenoretaylor
    2m2 minutes ago

    Hmmm this is a take no prisoners #qanda
    0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes

    Stephen Koukoulas
    ‏Verified account @TheKouk
    2m2 minutes ago

    Turnbull – I cannot understand why everyone didn’t see how brilliant I was #qanda

  12. 😆 Nailed it

    Stephen Koukoulas
    ‏Verified account @TheKouk
    2m2 minutes ago

    Turnbull – I cannot understand why everyone didn’t see how brilliant I was #qanda

  13. Is anybody, other than his boyfriend T Jones, buying his ‘we were ahead in the polls’ bullshit. The dude beat up the ‘this is a test of leadership’, re the byelections – which blew up spectacularly weeks befor his demise. Even the published polls showed that the ‘narrowing’ had stopped and was actually in retreat. He would fuck up each Parliamentary week by Tuesday.

  14. Malcolm Turnbull is not being very revelatory. He’s not answering the questions but instead using the QandA opportunity to boast about his achievements and endeavour to boost the government’s fortunes.

    He didn’t do as much as he is trying to get us to believe. And he did some things that were incredibly negative. Supporting the cut to Penalty Rates for example. Nor is his silly line about ‘Cutting taxes good. Raising taxes bad!’ one which should survive scrutiny. It’s just the sort of simplistic nonsense that the electorate eventually saw through.

    Plus, the way Turnbull is going on and on and on when he answers the questions put to him just brings back that feeling we all had about him and his persiflage, and we were glad to see the backside of it.

    His revisionism isn’t convincing me either. He’s leaving out the failures and pumping up the tyres on his successes. Few and far between as they were.

  15. Turnbull waffling, pulling his punches and reminding me why much of the electorate lost faith and interest in him a long time ago.
    Audience members dozing as i type.

  16. When Will USA LEARN?

    Nine News Australia
    ‏Verified account @9NewsAUS
    27m27 minutes ago

    #BREAKING: Multiple people have been injured in a suspected mass shooting at a California bar. #9News

  17. “would Foley ring her & talk for 19 minutes confessing all & say he was resigning..”

    19 minutes?? That’s a pretty exact number. Not “about 20 mins…”

    Implies there is a record of that call and duration???

  18. From the Guardian live blog

    Jones: One quick one to put on the record – did you speak to Kerry Stokes, and did he tell you that Rupert Murdoch told him”Malcolm’s got to go”?

    Turnbull: Yes, I did speak to him, and that’s what he’d said Rupert had said to him. And Kerry Stokes – he’s given an account of this conversation to many people – he said to Rupert, “That’s crazy – Malcolm’s doing well in the polls, he’s way ahead of Bill Shorten. Why would you want Bill Shorten to be prime minister?” To which, according to Kerry, Rupert said, “Oh, well, three years of Labor wouldn’t be so bad.” I can’t work that out. I can’t explain that.”

    ‘Three years of Labor wouldn’t be so bad’

    Makes you wonder whether Bill has cut a deal with Rupert…?

  19. With the US elections front and centre, I’ve racked my brain trying to think of the poster who vehemently supported Rudd during the R/G/R disputation. I now remember: it was Thomas Paine. If you’re lurking Thomas, hello. Such a shame that your man is still so bitter & twisted; whereas, Julia is basking in the glory.

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