Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. He has overreached and he will pay a heavy price, even if gets a few hundred thousand dollars out of this defamation action under our badly designed defamation laws.

    So at last we reach the Final Absurdity, care of Nicholas the Resident PB Puritan.

    1. If Rush loses the case he is guilty.

    2. If Rush wins the case he is guilty.

    Rush is guilty whether he wins or loses.

    If he loses according to law it is a good law. If he wins it is a badly designed law.

    QED.

  2. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 7:50 pm

    For a young man, Nicholas seems to have a lot of time on his hands.
    _____________________________
    Thereby alleging that Nicholas is unemployed or some other rat bag classification.

    Don’t post too much on C@t’s blog Nicholas, you will get scratched.

  3. ‘Harry “Snapper” Organs says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 8:06 pm

    Good grief, why are people still banging on about Rush vs. the Telecrap rubbish?
    Why no discussion on the forthcoming Vic. State election? Implications for the Fed. election’

    So, HSO, are you a Guy sort of person?

  8. Boerwar
    You have to be kidding. Guy is the sort of malevolent pseudo Christian I most despise. Putting chaplains in schools vs. putting mental health professionals is schools is a no brainer for me

  10. With an application to have “Witness X” give evidence in the Rush defamation suit, the presiding judge has portended that there may have to be a new trial.

  12. On the Rush case, whoever ‘wins’ there is a lot of money to move from one side or other and three lives changed in a big way.

  16. Nicholas @ #2896 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 7:52 pm

    it is also patently obvious that The Daily Telegraph published vile unsourced defamatory material.

    The material isn’t unsourced. Eryn has testified under oath and so has Mark.

    Geoffrey thought he could bluff his way through this. Under our insane defamation laws he could still win a few hundred thousand dollars, but he has done much more damage to his reputation than if he had apologized at the outset and acknowledged how out of touch he was with contemporary social norms.

    Nicholas, are you really such a complete fuckwit?

    The Telegraph did not speak with Eryn Jean Norvill at all, before they published their story. It appears they got it third hand, via a ‘chinese whispers’ route. The particular vile statement that Geoffrey Rush followed her into a toilet, and refused to leave, has not been addressed at all by the defence, and has been denied absolutely by Eryn Jean Norvill herself. As I said the Daily Telegraph published vile unsourced defamatory material. Really, you are behaving in a deranged manner.

    For you and Michael to claim any sort of intellectual superiority over others commenting on here is both pitiable and laughable. For my part, I am a Mensa member, and my 726 raw score in the Princeton Test, also known as the Admission Test for Graduate Studies in Business, placed me in the top 1% in both verbal and numerate inteligence when compared to the university graduates who qualify to undertake the test.

  17. ‘Harry "Snapper" Organs says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 8:21 pm

    Boerwar
    You have to be kidding. ‘

    Yeah. I was kidding. But I claim an extenuating circumstance. We have a type two diabetes sugar hit crisis here because most of the the Halloween choccies went begging.

  18. Hmmm… apparently the Tele’s new defence is going to rest on other allegations and other witnesses than the ones they published the first time around…
    At least the Bukharin Trial was efficient.

  20. yabba
    For my part, I am a Mensa member, and my 726 raw score in the Princeton Test, also known as the Admission Test for Graduate Studies in Business, placed me in the top 1% in both verbal and numerate inteligence when compared to the university graduates who qualify to undertake the test.
    ____________________________________________
    Pompous ass of the day award goes to ancient computer programmer that remembers the 60s and had zero fun because he was in a relationship with an IBM the size of a car.

  22. Boerwar
    Do you have the type 2? So do I. It’s a bit of a bastard as I’ve lost so much weight, the nerves in the back of my legs are now pinched and I need to use a walker.
    I steered clear of the leftover choccies from Halloween.

  23. Lol. I unblocked the nong to see what sort of garbage he was spewing forth today, and yes, it’s still at the level of Young Liberal/Young recently-expelled Alt Reich Nat…Black Ops, YAY! garbage.

    It’s amusing to watch him come here and in his pathetically low-rent, provocative way, try and unsettle us.

    For his efforts, I have thus decided to give nath the Travis Bickle Award:

    https://youtu.be/kGTY-7e3iT0

    *kissykissy* 😉

  26. it is also patently obvious that The Daily Telegraph published vile unsourced defamatory material.

    Yabba, you need to get with the times. Men are no longer entitled to women’s bodies. Nobody cares what it was like when you came of age in the 1960s.

    Geoffrey Rush behaved badly.

    Eryn Norvill has conducted herself with grace and dignity.

  30. placed me in the top 1% in both verbal and numerate intelligence

    You seem to be in the bottom 1 % in emotional intelligence and social skills.

    Men are not entitled to women’s bodies.

    Learn that social script.

  31. Major infrastructure projects require the hiring of highly skilled people. This involves the federal government potentially competing with the private sector at market prices. This can be inflationary.

    I am talking about a Job Guarantee that hires off the bottom

    This is where you are wrong, Nicholas. There are highly skilled people (such as myself) who are chronically underemployed.

    Sure there’s plenty of room for street sweepers but if you had any genuine sense of the real world you’d understand that a Jobs Guarantee has to have positions for pretty much every skill and ability.

    I don’t exactly like living on a disability pension Nicholas. A JG without a decent UBI still leaves a lot of people out in the cold. Like me.

  32. Nicholas @ #2926 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 8:47 pm

    it is also patently obvious that The Daily Telegraph published vile unsourced defamatory material.

    Yabba, you need to get with the times. Men are no longer entitled to women’s bodies. Nobody cares what it was like when you came of age in the 1960s.

    Geoffrey Rush behaved badly.

    Eryn Norvill has conducted herself with grace and dignity.

    Whatever you say, Nicholas. I know when I have met my match. I surrender to your profound perspicacity, and orotund, mellifluous pulchritude. How could I possibly complete with such a pompous, know-all, self-appointed genius such as yourself. I look forward to your Prime Ministership with open-mouthed dread.

    I hope that you and Earyinne will be very happy. I wouldn’t be too sure about her boyfriend though. He looks as though he could handle himself.

  36. Player One:

    [‘As they say – “If you can remember the ’60s, you really weren’t there” ]

    That’s true. The only thing I didn’t do was illicit drugs, only because I was in uniform in those days.

  38. Scrolling past = 95%
    Reading = 5%

    Back in the day the popular convention in banking that you did not wish for a matter to go to a Court because the presumption was the Court would always favour the “weak” versus the “strong” so the the bench mark for the bank was so much higher in any proceedings

  40. I don’t exactly like living on a disability pension Nicholas. A JG without a decent UBI still leaves a lot of people out in the cold. Like me.

    In order to serve a macroeconomic stabilizer function a JG has to employ people at the minimum wage. The JG’s purpose is to establish a floor for wages and working conditions in the economy.

    But in addition to the JG, the federal government should make active use of discretionary fiscal policy to hire more engineers, architects, project managers, construction workers, scientists, scholars, teachers, doctors, statisticians, and so on, to the maximum possible extent permitted by the available real resources in the economy.

    A JG is an automatic stabilizer.

    Discretionary fiscal policy should be used as well.

  42. nath:

    [‘For sure Mavis, but lets face it, Australia in the 60s wasn’t exactly Carnaby Street or San Francisco’s Summer of Love. Now that would be cool.’]

    I was lucky enough to visit San Francisco in ’67 onboard HMAS Melbourne. Hippies, flower people abounded. Got to see a few rock concerts, but can’t remeber who they were. Oh to be young again.

  45. Ouch more ageist barbs from Nicholas. As for his feminism, a couple of years ago, during a little sparring, he assumed I was a bloke – when I corrected him he got quite stroppy (changed my user name since to spare him the embarrassment……)

  46. yabba:

    [‘I surrender to your profound perspicacity, and orotund, mellifluous pulchritude.’]

    Please go easy on the big words, as, unlike you, I barely passed the Intermediate Certificate.

  47. Pretty disgusting accusations there Nick.

    But I’m sure William Bowe, who appears to enjoy the presence of malignant blow-ins like yourself, and delights in defending, even encouraging them, will approve.

  48. Harry “Snapper” Organs

    Did you ever get around to listening to the Diggers Requiem in full? You commented on the overture and posted a link a little while ago.

    I definitely enjoyed the experience and would love to have been in the audience to get the full effect, although it’s a pity the commentator had to interrupt after each movement or section. Surely the details could have been provided by the ABC as notes? I thought it spoiled the performance ever so slightly. Otherwise a highly worthwhile broadcast with some truly beautiful music, imho. Thanks again for drawing attention to it.

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