The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.
Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor
A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.
#Newspoll Morrison: Approve 41 (-4) Disapprove 44 (+6) #auspol
10 point turnaround a hint of the baseball bats waiting for Scotty
ScoMo’s mojo nogo.
A beautiful set of numbers. LNP down on everything, nothing for MSM to spin for them
It’s still a shocker for Morrison….I smell #leaderspill in the air.
Who’s the man?
I’m the man!
Post those predictions LR.
Feeling chesty.
What a shock.
The worst honeymoon ever is over
And now it begins
“It’s still a shocker for Morrison….I smell #leaderspill in the air.”
Maybe Barnaby will make a speech and calm things down?? 🙂
Andrew @ #3 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 8:40 pm
Oh, I don’t know. Shorten ratings still negative. Shorten still behind on PPM. Making silk purses out of sows ears is a key skill at Newscorpse.
So, again, here is the full list of guesses.
PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-28
Actual: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
PB mean: ALP 54.4 to 45.6 LNP
PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 75
ALP / LNP
55 / 45 A different Michael
60 / 40 adrian
54 / 46 a r
57 / 43 ajm
57 / 43 Akubra
55 / 45 Al Pal
54 / 46 Andrew_Earlwood
56 / 44 Aqualung
54 / 46 Asha Leu
54 / 46 Aunt Mavis
55 / 45 ausdavo
55 / 45 autocrat
53 / 47 Bert
54 / 46 bilko
54 / 46 BK
53 / 47 Boerwar
56 / 44 briefly
55 / 45 Burgey
53 / 47 C@tmomma
55 / 45 chinda63
53 / 47 Clem Attlee
54 / 46 Confessions
54 / 46 Cud Chewer
57 / 43 Dan Gulberry
55 / 45 DaretoTread
53 / 47 Douglas and Milko
53 / 47 Felix
56 / 44 Fulvio Sammut
54 / 46 Gareth
57 / 43 Gecko
56 / 44 Golly
55 / 45 grimace
54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
54 / 46 Henry
54 / 46 imacca
53 / 47 It’s Time
54 / 46 jeffemu
54 / 46 jenauthor
54 / 46 John R
60 / 40 KayJay
54 / 46 Late Riser
55 / 45 lefty e
55 / 45 LongMemory82
54 / 46 Lynchpin
52 / 48 Matt
54 / 46 Matt31
53 / 47 max
54 / 46 meher baba
55 / 45 Michael A
53 / 47 mikehilliard
53 / 47 Paddy O
54 / 46 pica
54 / 46 Player One
54 / 46 poroti
57 / 43 Puffytmd
57 / 43 Quasar
54 / 46 Question
53 / 47 Robert Ball
53 / 47 SCOUT
52 / 48 Simon² Katich®
50 / 50 Sprocket_
54 / 46 Socrates
54 / 46 Sohar
57 / 43 sonar
53 / 47 steve davis
54 / 46 Steve777
54 / 46 The Silver Bodgie
54 / 46 Tricot
53 / 47 Tristo
54 / 46 Upnorth
53 / 47 Victoria
54 / 46 Whisper
55 / 45 Work To Rule
54 / 46 Yabba
53 / 47 Zoidlord
Late Riser
The wisdom of the crowd is very accurate. The PB mean is just about spot on using Newspoll primaries and the 2016 prefs. 54.4 – 45.6.
William, “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor” comes up just fine for me using Chrome, which still refuses to bring up “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”.
Great result.
I haven’t been able to log into the last universal thread all afternoon, and still can’t. I have missed some of the gloating!
Anyone else had this problem?
Great and deserving result, indicative of Morrison’s ineptness in the week preceding Wentworth.
Mr Morrison’s tendency to make snap decisions without appropriate consultation, including with his ministers, seems to be becoming a bit of a pattern. In his previous ministerial positions he was probably able to get away with it, but it’s different when you are the PM; you still aren’t a dictator, and there’s more attention on you. If there’s one thing politicians and public servants hate, it’s being expected to clean up other people’s messes. It’s bad enough when you have a government that is basically running smoothly. It’s ten times worse when you have a government composed of antipathetic individuals who and factions which don’t trust each other: think China after the death of Chairman Mao.
Fulvio – yes many problems with old thread hopefully fixed by William through cache clearing
Yes! works now though.
Fulvio Sammut @ #13 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 9:48 pm
I’ve had it too, and still can’t get to the other thread.
Fulvio Sammut, apparently there’s been a problem for anyone on a “desktop” using chrome or firefox. FWIW Opera, which I was using, worked fine.
At this rate my 60-40 will come true eventually.
I too was with the “Let’s hope things get worse for LNP” without being too far-fetched. I will be surprised if the LNP sinks much further but I am happy to be proved incorrect.
Had problems logging in before. Great result for Labor. Three in a row for Upnorth. Think the punters are waking up that Scomo is a no go and a Snake Oik Salesman. The longer he goes now. The more he will fall. As has been said before – a beautiful set of numbers.
Andrew says:
Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 9:40 pm
A beautiful set of numbers. LNP down on everything, nothing for MSM to spin for them
You underestimate their skill set.
People can see a lot of Tony Abbott in Scotty – BrainFarts, no consultation, tin ear, oblivious to consequences, poor judgement, bad policies
My PB is steadfastly refusing to load the previous BludgerTrack thread.
Computer says no, we have to move on. I like this number better in any event.
Late Riser:
Safari, too.
Thanks for collating the predictions.
Mumble from the other day. I really do hope there is a genuine, sensible conservative-leaning independent who can take on Abbott in Warringah and pose a real threat to his re-election. It would appear the only way the Liberals are going to move on from the Howard era is by those Howard-era MPs losing their seats, and unfortunately they are in safe Liberal seats which Labor has no hope of winning. So it’s down to indies.
https://insidestory.org.au/when-safe-means-vulnerable/
Great work LR.
Hank goes to bed with a grin.
Change is coming.
Late Riser @ #12 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 9:48 pm
See if you can get there via the Dashboard. Worked for me.
Adrian, may you and KayJay come good on election Day 🙂
I. Am on ipad with safari and cannot log into the previous main thread
Question @ #11 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 8:48 pm
Yes. Even allowing for a handful of deliberate outliers. 🙂
Will be interesting to see how Morrison reacts to this.
I expect he will turn the volume up to 12 with myriad photo ops and announcements.
And of course it will be all Labor’s fault and Shorten will have questions to answer.
Julie Bishop, meanwhile, is looking forward to a couple of days at the races in Melbourne.
Tony Abbott has been grooming Scotty
Swamp rat
Me too. I was out all afternoon but if this morning was a guide Nicholas probably overwhelmed it.
It was pretty boring swamprat.
And that’s my other beef, why cant we post smilies on this blog.
They say so much with less words.
KayJay @ #28 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 8:55 pm
Thanks KayJay. I’m not worried for myself. Opera works for me. I’m just posting in case it helps any forensics.
Lol…. it is old hat now anyway….
Election NOW!!!
Nice!
Gotta wonder how on earth 36% of Australians could give this shitforbrains mob their first preference. WTF
The trick is to make sure this trend stays much as it is for the coming few months…………..Like others I will be interested just what sliver of silver the Oz and the rest of the Murdoch press can find.
Our local Paul Murray of the West newspapers spent a whole article pointing out the decline in the Labor vote in Wentworth as something that Labor should be really worried about. For one who is supposedly so astute, his rant did not include any concept of tactical voting on behalf of Labor voter. On top of this, he was really snarky about Turnbull not turning a trick for Sharma. Or, as someone else has put it, expect him come back and clean up his own blood from the knife in the back.
To think people like out local Murray still get a gig.
Android tablet/Chrome – no problem all day.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-scott-morrison-takes-significant-personal-hit-in-wake-of-wentworth-byelection/news-story/bb4ba993cebe589c497a49003b384d54
Whoops, paywall.
Any supposed political “journalist” or expert who did not pick up on the tactical ALP voting in Wentworth does not deserve to have that job. Looking at you Hartcher and Murray for a start.
Henry @ #36 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 9:59 pm
Smilies work just fine.
I will post site in a few minutes. 😇
confessions @ 9.55 pm
I am struggling to understand why the ALP would want to see Mr Abbott beaten in Warringah. He’s a cancer in the Liberal party room and organisation, and will be for years to come if given half a chance. He’s an asset to the ALP, and they should direct preferences to him. (He may have been an effective Opposition Leader up to the 2013 election, but that was in the context of the hung Parliament, and before people at large had really figured him out.)
Gecko – unemployment low, tax cuts and boats stopped count for something.
Also those over 60 with investments will for Libs to protect their imputation credits and negative gearing.
Maybe it’s time to rotate another PM into the slot. 😇
I know how to 🙂 and 🙁
HH
Also those over 60 with investments will for Libs to protect their imputation credits and negative gearing.
_____________________________________
Not me. I’ll take it while it’s there because it’s currently legal, but neither are right policy and in the national interest.