Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. “It’s still a shocker for Morrison….I smell #leaderspill in the air.”

    Maybe Barnaby will make a speech and calm things down?? 🙂

  2. So, again, here is the full list of guesses.

    PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-28
    Actual: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 54.4 to 45.6 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 75

    ALP / LNP
    55 / 45 A different Michael
    60 / 40 adrian
    54 / 46 a r
    57 / 43 ajm
    57 / 43 Akubra 
    55 / 45 Al Pal
    54 / 46 Andrew_Earlwood
    56 / 44 Aqualung
    54 / 46 Asha Leu
    54 / 46 Aunt Mavis
    55 / 45 ausdavo
    55 / 45 autocrat
    53 / 47 Bert
    54 / 46 bilko
    54 / 46 BK
    53 / 47 Boerwar
    56 / 44 briefly
    55 / 45 Burgey
    53 / 47 C@tmomma
    55 / 45 chinda63
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    54 / 46 Confessions
    54 / 46 Cud Chewer
    57 / 43 Dan Gulberry
    55 / 45 DaretoTread
    53 / 47 Douglas and Milko
    53 / 47 Felix
    56 / 44 Fulvio Sammut
    54 / 46 Gareth
    57 / 43 Gecko
    56 / 44 Golly
    55 / 45 grimace
    54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    54 / 46 Henry
    54 / 46 imacca
    53 / 47 It’s Time
    54 / 46 jeffemu
    54 / 46 jenauthor
    54 / 46 John R
    60 / 40 KayJay
    54 / 46 Late Riser
    55 / 45 lefty e
    55 / 45 LongMemory82
    54 / 46 Lynchpin
    52 / 48 Matt
    54 / 46 Matt31
    53 / 47 max
    54 / 46 meher baba
    55 / 45 Michael A
    53 / 47 mikehilliard
    53 / 47 Paddy O
    54 / 46 pica
    54 / 46 Player One
    54 / 46 poroti
    57 / 43 Puffytmd
    57 / 43 Quasar
    54 / 46 Question
    53 / 47 Robert Ball
    53 / 47 SCOUT
    52 / 48 Simon² Katich®
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    54 / 46 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    57 / 43 sonar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    54 / 46 Steve777
    54 / 46 The Silver Bodgie
    54 / 46 Tricot
    53 / 47 Tristo
    54 / 46 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Victoria
    54 / 46 Whisper
    55 / 45 Work To Rule
    54 / 46 Yabba
    53 / 47 Zoidlord

  3. Late Riser

    The wisdom of the crowd is very accurate. The PB mean is just about spot on using Newspoll primaries and the 2016 prefs. 54.4 – 45.6.

  4. William, “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor” comes up just fine for me using Chrome, which still refuses to bring up “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”.

  5. Great result.

    I haven’t been able to log into the last universal thread all afternoon, and still can’t. I have missed some of the gloating!

    Anyone else had this problem?

  6. Mr Morrison’s tendency to make snap decisions without appropriate consultation, including with his ministers, seems to be becoming a bit of a pattern. In his previous ministerial positions he was probably able to get away with it, but it’s different when you are the PM; you still aren’t a dictator, and there’s more attention on you. If there’s one thing politicians and public servants hate, it’s being expected to clean up other people’s messes. It’s bad enough when you have a government that is basically running smoothly. It’s ten times worse when you have a government composed of antipathetic individuals who and factions which don’t trust each other: think China after the death of Chairman Mao.

  7. Fulvio Sammut, apparently there’s been a problem for anyone on a “desktop” using chrome or firefox. FWIW Opera, which I was using, worked fine.

  8. I too was with the “Let’s hope things get worse for LNP” without being too far-fetched. I will be surprised if the LNP sinks much further but I am happy to be proved incorrect.

  9. Had problems logging in before. Great result for Labor. Three in a row for Upnorth. Think the punters are waking up that Scomo is a no go and a Snake Oik Salesman. The longer he goes now. The more he will fall. As has been said before – a beautiful set of numbers.


  10. Andrew says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 9:40 pm

    A beautiful set of numbers. LNP down on everything, nothing for MSM to spin for them

    You underestimate their skill set.

  11. People can see a lot of Tony Abbott in Scotty – BrainFarts, no consultation, tin ear, oblivious to consequences, poor judgement, bad policies

  12. My PB is steadfastly refusing to load the previous BludgerTrack thread.

    Computer says no, we have to move on. I like this number better in any event.

  13. Mumble from the other day. I really do hope there is a genuine, sensible conservative-leaning independent who can take on Abbott in Warringah and pose a real threat to his re-election. It would appear the only way the Liberals are going to move on from the Howard era is by those Howard-era MPs losing their seats, and unfortunately they are in safe Liberal seats which Labor has no hope of winning. So it’s down to indies.

    Under normal circumstances we might expect One Nation to contribute to that crossbench, and the Greens to contribute more, but the major parties are making this hard. Since 2013, the Liberals have been preferencing Labor ahead of the Greens. If, for example, 2016 Liberal how-to-vote cards had resembled those of 2010 (when Bandt was elected), the Greens would have won Batman (certainly) and Wills (probably).

    On the other side, Labor always preferences against One Nation, and while that party wasn’t competitive in any electorate in 2016, it probably will be in some places next year, and there’s a good chance Labor’s cards will cruel its chances in one or several seats.

    The Greens remain an outside chance in electorates like Higgins, where Liberal preferences won’t be distributed. One Nation could prevail in seats where Coalition preferences are distributed between One Nation and Labor.

    But with the Centre Alliance looking like going nowhere (Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo aside), and in the absence of a Palmer United Party–style last-minute appearance from nowhere, independents look like being the most likely scene of possible action in 2019.

    If you had to choose where one might pop up, you’d look for either a local MP who’s on the nose (hello Tony Abbott in Warringah) or a retiring MP. Cowper (where Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker is pulling up stumps) could be interesting if Rob Oakeshott runs again.

    Cowper is a very outside chance for Labor as well, especially if there’s a three-cornered contest, which can leak preferences.

    https://insidestory.org.au/when-safe-means-vulnerable/

  14. Will be interesting to see how Morrison reacts to this.

    I expect he will turn the volume up to 12 with myriad photo ops and announcements.

    And of course it will be all Labor’s fault and Shorten will have questions to answer.

    Julie Bishop, meanwhile, is looking forward to a couple of days at the races in Melbourne.

  15. The trick is to make sure this trend stays much as it is for the coming few months…………..Like others I will be interested just what sliver of silver the Oz and the rest of the Murdoch press can find.
    Our local Paul Murray of the West newspapers spent a whole article pointing out the decline in the Labor vote in Wentworth as something that Labor should be really worried about. For one who is supposedly so astute, his rant did not include any concept of tactical voting on behalf of Labor voter. On top of this, he was really snarky about Turnbull not turning a trick for Sharma. Or, as someone else has put it, expect him come back and clean up his own blood from the knife in the back.
    To think people like out local Murray still get a gig.

  16. Any supposed political “journalist” or expert who did not pick up on the tactical ALP voting in Wentworth does not deserve to have that job. Looking at you Hartcher and Murray for a start.

  17. confessions @ 9.55 pm

    I am struggling to understand why the ALP would want to see Mr Abbott beaten in Warringah. He’s a cancer in the Liberal party room and organisation, and will be for years to come if given half a chance. He’s an asset to the ALP, and they should direct preferences to him. (He may have been an effective Opposition Leader up to the 2013 election, but that was in the context of the hung Parliament, and before people at large had really figured him out.)

  18. Gecko – unemployment low, tax cuts and boats stopped count for something.

    Also those over 60 with investments will for Libs to protect their imputation credits and negative gearing.

  19. HH

    Also those over 60 with investments will for Libs to protect their imputation credits and negative gearing.
    _____________________________________

    Not me. I’ll take it while it’s there because it’s currently legal, but neither are right policy and in the national interest.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *