Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. What’s everyone’s feeling about an election soon-ish.
    Like sooner than May.
    I keep seeing people say ‘May’ like it’s a done deal, but think that the risk of having a lot of lost votes in the house will be pushing the government to consider the option to jump rather than be pushed.

  2. Pedant:

    Abbott and those Liberal MPs like him are a cancer on our democracy, shilling for the vested interests at the expense of the national interest. He offers nothing to our parliament or our govt and therefore there is no reason for him and his ilk to be hanging around wasting time, space and money.

  3. And some idiots want 4 year terms. Bloody stupid.

    You have to be able to get rid of the bastards ASAP, i reckon.

    The chartists wanted annual parliaments!!

  4. KayJay @ #45 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 10:04 pm

    Henry @ #36 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 9:59 pm

    It was pretty boring swamprat.
    And that’s my other beef, why cant we post smilies on this blog.
    They say so much with less words.

    Smilies work just fine.
    I will post site in a few minutes. 😇


    Both provide oodles (technical word) of Emoji.
    Including the most important ones
    ☕ coffee
    ☮ peace

    Back to bed 🛌and V era.

  5. Tricot

    A bit of history. When Murray was editor of The West Australian in the 1990s he took on Richard Court over native title and the movers and shakers in Perth had him branded as a Labor stooge and wanted him out.

    He survived that and ad you know a few years later moved to radio where he became a poor mans shock jock.

    I think his brief these days is to write what The West’s fast diminishing readership wants to read.

    Pays the bills.

  6. HH
    The countries rooted … underemployed, systems rorted, no energy policy, no carbon policy, ABC shit, NBN crap, services depleated, wages stagnating, inequality rife, world finance heading for a clusterfuck… no amount of imputation credit or incarcerated children can negate that. Oz 36% moronic.

  7. Our Paul Murray in WA (I wish he was yours) is a pathetic one eyed bigot with no insight, no perspicacity, no self awareness and no bloody idea.

    I defy anyone to refer me to one single article, written by him in the last 20-30 years that he has been polluting the media in WA with his venomous and incoherent ramblings, which has contained a single sentence approving of Labor.

    He makes Glenn Milne seem sober and measured by comparison.

  8. “Abbott and those Liberal MPs like him are a cancer on our democracy,”

    Yup, but its going to take a serious electoral thrashing of the Libs, AND some rational analysis of the whys and wherefores of such a result by the Libs, to get rid of them.

    The problem with that is that some of these nutjobbies are in the safe seats that the Libs wont lose even in a thrashing. 🙁

  9. The grinding upwards of Shorten’s net approval level continues, with the current -13% (+37%-50%) the highest since May 2016

    for mine, I take this improvement as being an indicator that people are increasingly seeing him as the PM in waiting and are getting on the bandwagon (comparably to Abbott as LOTO net approval ratings improved as the election neared)

  10. Confessions @ 10.09pm

    Agreed. However, the ongoing presence of Mr Abbott may well help to keep the creepy crawlies you describe away from the Treasury benches for several terms. Should the coalition lose the next election, it will be due in no small measure to Mr Abbott’s efforts since, really, 2013. From that perspective, having him in the limelight and living off the public purse for a bit longer may be a small price to pay.

  11. Happy to see a worse result for the government than I expected. Still think they’ll hang on till next year. So much graft for the mates to be organised and land mines for Labor to be laid and set.

  12. south @ #50 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 9:06 pm

    What’s everyone’s feeling about an election soon-ish.
    Like sooner than May.
    I keep seeing people say ‘May’ like it’s a done deal, but think that the risk of having a lot of lost votes in the house will be pushing the government to consider the option to jump rather than be pushed.

    I know nothing. But I feel this current mob is full of its own promises. At one level they understand their doom is approaching, but like any mortal they want it delayed. And they enjoy the aphrodisiac of power. It’s tactics first and nothing second.

  13. “What’s everyone’s feeling about an election soon-ish.”

    If the election were called by next Tuesday, it could be Held December 1. That’s a week after the Victorian election, so the campaigns will overlap. Dec 1 is the earliest possibility. The 8th is likely the last practical date this year. December 15 at a stretch, but counting and declarations would extend into the holiday period.

    There’s a window in early March, but then the NSW election, Easter (April 21) and School holidays intervene.

    Basically, the windows are early December, early March and early-mid May, with May 18 the last date.

  14. imacca @ #59 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 9:16 pm

    “Abbott and those Liberal MPs like him are a cancer on our democracy,”

    Yup, but its going to take a serious electoral thrashing of the Libs, AND some rational analysis of the whys and wherefores of such a result by the Libs, to get rid of them.

    The problem with that is that some of these nutjobbies are in the safe seats that the Libs wont lose even in a thrashing. 🙁

    That reminds me of a short discussion on vaccinations and immunity and how that relates to the body politic. Perhaps it is a good thing to keep a small number around?

  15. Gecko

    I agree. I have never seen the country so rooted.

    The whole political class should be sent home for retraining.

    It’s all self-interest, corruption and stupidity.

    No values, no standards, unaccounatable, no transparency…..

    Absolutely no idea of “public service”

    Sadly, No institution can be trusted.

  16. Thanks Lateriser for collating the list. Nice set of numbers.
    I can’t see how the media can spin it.
    The SunHerald (Sydney Fairfax) editorial today (praying for a Morrison recovery) was sad.

    I will be interested to see who they editorialize for at the next federal election.

  17. “The Liar from the Shire”

    I can see that catching on Sprocket – did you coin it?

    I’d love to be a fly on the wall at their Monday meeting tomorrow, and to be in on the scheming Dutton, Abbott and Co are likely to resort to as they tell themselves they would have turned things around.

    Labor’s key message tomorrow/this week – “Most Australians are pretty good at seeing through bullshit, and they’ve seen through Scott Morrison and his disunited, dysfunctional and delusional government. Please Mr Morrison, call an election and let the Australian people and not the right wing of the liberal party decide who is PM”

  18. See now, the problem is, Scomo isn’t reaching out to the base. Before Wentworth, since the last Newspoll, he proposed that we should stop torturing the children on Nauru, and that we shouldn’t let grown adults bully young children at schools. Since Wentworth, they’ve sent that traitor Malcolm on a special holiday to Bali to try to organise a trade deal that might help those rich left-wing establishment people in Wentworth get even richer.

    The proof of this analysis is the One Nation vote hasn’t decreased. If he was reaching out to the base, the One Nation vote would be reducing.

    (NB. I observe that I was wrong with my prediction, which was 47. I thought Newspoll would be stickier and last week was merely bad, not horrid like the week before. However collectively we seemed to be about right.)

  19. There will be no election this year, due to the Summit season – where the vision of Scotty hob nobbing with the global elite will surely swing the mood in his favour.

    APEC in PNG on 12 November
    G20 in Argentina on 30 November

    And don’t be surprised if we get a half Senate election in May, with Scotty hanging on as PM till October/November 2019

  20. The Liberals have lots of money to splash around to favoured constituencies, lots of time bombs and poison pills to plant and, with the help of Rupert, lots of lies, disinformation and smears to spread to see if they can get poll numbers more the their liking. I can’t see them going early.

  21. Number of Newspoll surveys for Liberal PMs to move into negative net approval rating:

    Abbott – 3
    Turnbull – 9
    Morrison – 3

    Neither of his predecessors, once they went negative, ever recovered to a positive net approval rating

  22. The electoral rhythm will suit Labor. Voters will be increasingly aware that an election will be held in the first half next year and they will turn their minds to the question of change-or-not. The way things are going, the mood for change will become pervasive and the numbers for Labor will solidify. If – as is devoutly to be hoped – independents challenge some of the LNP RW in their safest seats, voters will begin to sense that widespread change is both possible and necessary.

    We’re almost into the Christmas/NY holiday zone when voters usually switch off almost completely and the news cycle also tones right down. By the time Australia Day rolls around, voters will be anticipating the election and preparing to discard this absolutely useless government. From here, it really looks like they’re goners. Irretrievably gone!

  23. And the Orange Buffoon is not going to PNG, sending Pence in his place

    But Dotard is due in Buenos Aries, where he will cause outrage by insulting his hosts and global colleagues. Scotty will be ignored as the provincial pissant he is.

  24. I really think those people expecting labor to win 90-100 seats are being quite unrealistic. Labor would be lucky to even get the 83 seats they received in 2007.

  25. I’m a bit surprised labor hasn’t been using the term “Captain’s call” about some of ScuMo’s brain farts such as: moving the embassy to Jerusalem; making abbott special envoy to indigenous people (could have been labelled ScuMo’s “Knighting Prince Phillip moment”); chopping and changing on Nauru, etc etc.

    I hope to hear the term used and linked to abbott’s chaotic reign.

    How long before ScuMo bites an onion or has a catatonic quivering fit when asked questions (a la abbott and “shit happens” question)?

  26. If this result is close to being replicated at the election, it will give me much pleasure in seeing Dutton’s career coming to an end. At this point in the electoral cycle, an 8 point lead is a significant buffer given that historically the gap usually narrows once an election is called.

  27. The main benefit of having viable independents running in “safe” coalition seats is that it will force them to spread their campaign resources more thinly.

  28. And in Victoria, ahead of an election in 4 weeks time, the Liberal Party launch their campaign to take back control

    At a SECRET location, the audience of 400 being Party members, candidates and their families

    The prime minister an absentee

    Oh, and replicating Trump, Andrews is going to be jailed

    Because of a compliant made by guess who – yes, the Liberal Party and to the very same organisation the Liberal Party sources its candidates from


    The Police State

  29. Labor hasn’t scored 54 in a real election since 1946.


    The traditional ‘killing season’ is approaching, with Thursday December 6, the last sitting day, being key. I was expecting Malcolm to be replaced in that week, but things moved much quicker. I don’t expect that the Liberals would be stupid enough to switch again.

  30. sustainable future @ 10.34 pm

    I was struck during the Wentworth campaign when Mr Morrison at one point addressed someone, either a journalist or a member of the public, as “Mr Speaker”. It reminded me of the time when Kim Beazley mixed up Rove McManus and Karl Rove.

  31. Morrison’s brain fart about maybe relocating the embassy has come at a price. Only a goose would have suggested such a thing in such a politically transparent fashion. Then to top it off grinning when supporting a Trump initiative is simply adding more shit to the shit sandwich that Morrison himself has rustled up.

  32. KB
    Sure…I was more taken with the short times with which they have turned negative.

    Gillard had 14 Newspoll surveys before her net approval rating turned negative; Rudd, the first, 53 (FWIW) and indeed even Rudd II was 3 surveys.

  33. Just watching an old TV series off YouTube, called War and Remembrance (original novel by Herman Wouk).

    Anyway, it’s interesting to see that Uncle Otto Abetz (then Nazi Ambassador to France) is a character.

  34. William Bowe @ #86 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 9:44 pm

    Has the PB median ever come in too low for Labor?

    Good question. Is this crowd a little bunch of ALP optimists? This is what the crowd were hoping for over the last 4 Newspolls.

    Newspoll-Poll PB Median
    2018-09-07 ALP 55.0 to 45.0 LNP
    2018-09-23 ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    2018-10-14 ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    2018-10-28 ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP

    Maybe I will look up the actuals.

  35. As with Trump in America and with Americans, Abbott in Australia has support and represents a demographic, a demographic which may very well include a majority of those are the rusted on Liberal Party so called base

    Just because Abbott was ousted by Turnbull and the parliamentary Party is not to assume that that ousting was supported by the very great number of Liberal Party supporters – hence Turnbull’s polling when every one automatically assumed he would wipe the floor with Shorten – then the election result where the loss of Wentworth now sees the government in minority

    There is a connection between Howard, seen as the great warrior by rusted on, elderly Liberal supporters still blind to the carnage of Howard which continues to impact today, and Abbott who Howard saw as his natural successor – hence there being no relationship between Howard and Costello who did not even speak over years

    Abbott harms the Liberal Party because he represents the hard core Liberal Party supporter – not Nelson, not Turnbull and not Morrison

  36. Looks like Stephen Fry has been doing more good for the Irish..

    In 2015, the British comedian Stephen Fry appeared on an Irish television program. When quizzed by the show’s host about what he would say to God in the afterlife, Fry responded, “Why should I respect a capricious, mean-minded, stupid God who creates a world so full of injustice and pain?” He was accused of running afoul of Ireland’s blasphemy laws, and Irish police opened an inquiry.

  37. “What’s everyone’s feeling about an election soon-ish.”

    They’ll have to be dragged out kicking and screaming. Libs will pull as many tricks as they can to hold on for as long as possible and then some.

  38. The PB aggregate is 54-46 for a similar period to when the Newspoll aggregate was 55-45. I can only assume PBers underestimate their party’s popularity. 😀

  39. However, the ongoing presence of Mr Abbott may well help to keep the creepy crawlies you describe away from the Treasury benches for several terms.

    Yes we all said the same thing when he was elected LOTO. The reality is that Abbott and his coteries’ ongoing presence in the partyroom is having a destructive influence on the nation.

    No carbon price or effective mechanism to deal with GHGEs. The Ruddock review. The very likely outcome this govt won’t ensure that religious institutions take on the RC recommendations pertaining to child sex abuse. Constitutional recognition for Indigenous Australians. There are likely other issues where the Liberal nutjob faction with Abbott and Andrews as leaders are unduly influencing the govt.

    I no longer care that Abbott’s whiteanting benefits Labor. His presence in the parliament gives him a voice and a platform to agitate against the national interest, and that means our country would be better off with him retiring.

  40. Has anyone noticed that every couple of weeks Hunt is in the media adding another or a couple of prescription medicines to the PSB?

    With all the fanfare

    I would have thought the medical needs of citizens would have been the driver – not being used as a publicity tool

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