Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  3. “People can see a lot of Tony Abbott in Scotty – BrainFarts, no consultation, tin ear, oblivious to consequences, poor judgement, bad policies”
    I think Tony was the least incompetent of Turnbull, Morrrison and Abbott. That’s not to say that Abbott was in any way competent.

  6. It is an irony, no doubt lost on liberals, that in the same week when the Irish people vote to rescind the crime of “blasphemy”, the European Court of Human Rights upholds a conviction of an Austrian woman for the crime of “disparaging religion” for likening “Muhammad’s marriage to six-year-old Aisha to paedophilia”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/28/none-of-us-should-enjoy-the-right-to-have-our-beliefs-shielded-from-abuse

  8. @Late Riser
    FWIW Opera nowadays is just Chrome (chromium) with a different skin.
    I’d say it was a cache issue servers idle which then polluted user’s caches.
    Ctrl+F5 is your friend

  9. The Coalitions time in opposition starts now. They may be sitting on the government benches for the next six months, but they have no plan, no pressing legislative agenda and no reason to be there other than they are not Labor.
    The coalitions predictions of chaos if/when Phelps won were spot on, not because minority government can’t work, but because the coalition can’t work minority government. They have had enough trouble trying to make majority government work.

  10. I’m apparently a valued reader of the Daily Telegrath, and as such I receive a copy of the next day’s front and back page by email.

    Funny, but I no reference to this newspoll on tomorrow’s front page ….

  13. This really is a government without a purpose. Considering how many things there are that cry out for attention, for commitment, it’s just extraordinary that the LNP are so content with doing so little for so long.

    If they have a reason for being it must be to prevent any action of any kind, matching their reactionary instincts to a T.

  14. Thanks Zeh, I will try that tomorrow. Puzzled though since Opera worked fine but Chrome did not and I had not used Chrome in weeks until late tonight to confirm reports of problems. I will remember ctrlF5. (on my phone atm)

  15. PM has the Lib tribe behind him.

    Tony Abbott

    It’s a clash of personalities, more than any philosophical divide, that has hurt the Liberals

    Kiss of death for Morrison courtesy of Tony Abbott.

  16. “As with Trump in America and with Americans, Abbott in Australia has support and represents a demographic”

    Composed of not very smart people and spivs. 🙂

  19. Cats running in all directions. The chooks in disarray. The rout already in place with many a detailed exit strategy well organised before this latest poll. They’ll hang around picking up the spoils for a while longer, the possibility of a half Senate mid-year very real, any sense of propriety almost non existent.
    A nation so poorly served by Costello’s lack of ticker and quest for sinecure, unworldly wannabe Abbott, the brilliant careerist Turnbull and this awful cove from somewhere. Preceded by the accidentally disposed Howard, blessed by the economic Gods of mining and housing and an assortment of ‘hanger-on-ers’. The name of Howard’s deputy if you please?
    We are all just in need of honesty and openness, an ear for the people and an eye for the future. Now it’s just corruption, self aggrandizing and the pursuit of the highly volatile measure of everything, money.
    The possibilities within Australia, an endless feast of choice with the only limits being imagination and will.
    We have a LNP fantasizing about the possibilities of coal and the non-existance of man-made climate change. We have an LNP pining for a docile poorly paid lower class of workers and the decimation of a union controlled, well represented workforce.
    The LNP have been dragged, kicking, screaming and protesting since the 1960’s. The next electoral rout whenever it happens will actually give the LNP a future.
    We are in desperate need of an anti-corruption commission with a mandate. We need to demand honesty from the press. We need to expose greed and self-interest of multinationals and regain some control of the future. We need clean and bountiful oceans, seas and rivers. We need an atmosphere free of pollutants and an ocean without plastic.
    A poll of voters, from Newspoll, with these numbers does great things.

  20. …I freely concede that I was wrong. Apparently, even the Australian public have a tolerable-bullshit level they’re not prepared to exceed!

  21. A primary vote of 36% and a two party preferred vote of 46% for the Coalition, actually is something of a miracle considering how bad this government is going to be regarded as one of the worst in Australian history.

  22. We now know 46% of Australians will not vote for Labor, and Wentworth has shown Australia what needs to be done to put the Liberal party out of it’s misery.

  27. “I no longer care that Abbott’s whiteanting benefits Labor. His presence in the parliament gives him a voice and a platform to agitate against the national interest, and that means our country would be better off with him retiring.”

    +1 +1 +1 +1 +1

  28. Good morning

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Prime Minister taking a significant personal hit in the wake of the Wentworth by-election with his satisfaction rating falling four points over the past fortnight to 41 per cent.
    https://outline.com/3e8aVs
    In a speech built around the campaign’s central theme of “control”, Matthew Guy also promised car registration discounts of nearly $300 for some probationary drivers and blasted Premier Daniel Andrews for having lost control of Victoria’s population, cost-of-living, law-and-order and in various other policy areas.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/payroll-tax-cuts-car-rego-discounts-as-liberals-aim-to-take-control-20181028-p50chc.html
    Fringe parties can play an important role in determining which major party will govern and what legislation passes.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/fringe-factor-your-guide-to-the-minor-parties-20181027-p50cbj.html
    The promise to employ 1100 more nurses and midwives is expected to cost about $460 million, and would lead to the presence of an extra nurse on night shift at every public hospital in Victoria, Mr Andrews said.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-launches-victorian-election-campaign-with-1-38b-health-pledge-20181028-p50cgu.html
    The ABC reported that there was no branding to suggest this massive publicity campaign was funded by the gun lobby. It reportedly used an anti-major party agenda to bring in independents who would loosen the gun laws in Australia. Major armament dealers allegedly helped fund the campaign as members of SIFA.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/campaign-to-relax-gun-laws-increases-threat-of-family-violence-20181025-p50bxz.html
    “We jumped in and swam out to him, by the time we got there blood and froth were coming out of his nose and mouth, so the kangaroo was definitely in the middle of a drowning event,” he said.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/police-save-drowning-kangaroo-in-water-rescue-20181028-p50cgn.html
    Germany, which has pledged to suspend arms exports to Saudi Arabia over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, says it expects the European Union to adopt a common position on potential limits to weapons sales.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/middle-east/european-response-on-saudi-arms-sales-20181028-p50cht.html
    Pope Francis had called the summit of church leaders to debate ways to better minister to young people. But the synod was quickly taken over by debate about issues that are particularly dear to the young: the clergy sex abuse scandal, respect for gays, and women’s rights.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/vatican-meeting-endorses-women-at-decision-making-table-20181028-p50ci1.html
    The Economist’s rosy profile of Australia is in some ways an oddly timed piece given the insecurities many in this country are feeling
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/oct/28/is-it-time-to-end-the-stories-about-the-australian-economic-miracle
    “It means that we’ve got rid of a medieval crime from our constitution that should never have been there,” said Michael Nugent, chairperson of Atheist Ireland, which had campaigned for years to have blasphemy taken out of the constitution.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/27/ireland-votes-to-oust-blasphemy-ban-from-constitution
    It is hoped that MI5’s approach, techniques and greater powers will allow it to discover more about the violent intentions of the extreme right than the police can.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/28/mi5-lead-battle-against-uk-rightwing-extremists-police-action
    Germany’s ruling parties are reeling from their second electoral upset in a fortnight, after voters in a key state abandoned them in droves. The result in the central state of Hesse could plunge both parties of Angela Merkel’s coalition government into renewed crises.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/28/merkel-suffers-another-election-setback-key-german-state-of-hesse
    There are pipe bombs in the mail, racist invective is flying, a synagogue has been attacked. The president feeds the fire
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/28/donald-trump-midterms-elections-pipe-bombs-democrats-republicans
    The United States is reeling from a week of violence allegedly perpetrated by white-male terrorists. And the President seems more worried about his hair.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/10/28/trump-us-violence/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%2020181029
    There are stories of stretching prescriptions by taking half-doses, facing bankruptcy to pay for drugs to save a child’s life, skipping other medications, fighting insurance companies, taking out loans, going without food, going to Canada where drugs are cheaper, or simply living with fear.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/27/big-pharma-midterms-republicans-democrats
    The most comprehensive study to date of wage theft and working conditions among international students, backpackers and other temporary migrants in Australia has found almost a third earned $12 per hour or less, approximately half the casual minimum wage.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/29/a-third-of-australias-foreign-workers-paid-less-than-half-minimum-wage-study
    At some point this week the Nauru issue broke through a barrier.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/27/how-australia-finally-started-to-care-about-asylum-seekers-and-refugees-on-nauru
    The Grattan Institute has urged Labor to abandon its key re-election pledge to subsidise rooftop solar installation for an estimated 650,000 Victorian homes, arguing that the bold scheme could force up power prices for those not fortunate enough to buy into it.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/competing-solar-and-fast-rail-schemes-economically-wasteful-report-20181028-p50chy.html
    Kerryn Phelps has accused the Morrison government of breaking commitments to voters during the Wentworth byelection campaign, in an outbreak of tensions between the Coalition and Australia’s newest federal MP.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/they-were-offering-false-hope-kerryn-phelps-accuses-government-of-breaking-byelection-vows-20181028-p50cfp.html
    Thinktank the Grattan Institute has released a new report on the performance of Australia’s state and territory governments, providing a “scorecard” of their economies and policies from the past five years.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/28/home-ownership-plummeting-among-australias-young-and-poor-report-finds
    Many writers still think they don’t have a choice. Just as its stablemate Powerpoint came to define – even dominate – professional presentations, Word came to be synonymous with writing.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/oct/29/were-winning-the-war-on-word-fellow-writers-enjoy-the-freedom

  29. In addition to travel, Mr Turnbull also gets up to three ongoing staff, and one temporary senior adviser for the next 12 months.

    He can charge taxpayers for a fully equipped office, unlimited postage, a smart phone, newspaper subscriptions, a home phone line, private vehicle, and chauffeured ‘Com Car’ trips for travel outside of Sydney.

    His employees can travel within Australia at a total cost of up to $15,000 a year.

    And he is not alone. Tony Abbott, Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, John Howard, Paul Keating and Bob Hawke continue to make use of similar benefits, according to the Independent Parliamentary Expenses Authority

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/10/28/former-prime-ministers-cost/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%2020181029

  31. The headline A third of Australia’s foreign workers paid less than half minimum wage – study Should be a blazing banner on the front pages. Remember it whenever you hear the Ridouts and her ilk wailing about ‘skills shortages’ and the desperate need for foreign workers. Thieving bastards robbing both the ‘457s’ and local workers + unemployed. Theft as a business model. Grrrrrrrr.

  32. Stuart Robert is one of the government’s top money-men. The Liberal Party looks after him as he is a gun fund-raiser who bankrolls campaigns in marginal seats. He is also quite the Teflon Man, sailing from one scandal to the next: Rolex watches from the Chinese, outrageous home internet bills and unusually high office rents; water off a duck’s back.
    …
    Having quit the front bench in 2016, after an internal investigation found he had shares in a trust linked to the mining company of a Liberal donor, Stuart Robert has proven a political Lazarus, resurrected to the ministry to take stewardship of the corporate regulator, the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, despite his other business interests being investigated by ASIC.
    …
    Robert is the LNP’s best fundraiser in Queensland. He is a valuable money-man for the Liberal Party. One MP said the Fadden Forum was Stuart Robert’s main source of power in the party. He is also a roommate of Prime Minister and fellow Pentacostalist Scott Morrison. Robert was a key supporter and numbers man for Morrison in the recent leadership spill.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/close-to-the-wind-the-trials-of-liberal-money-man-stuart-robert/

  34. I admit I’m not very familiar with the intricacies of the present Victorian political situation, but I feel like Guy is onto a bit of a loser with focusing so heavily on crime being “out of control.” That approach only works when a decent amount of voters have actually experienced that for themselves, and I can’t imagine the a huge amount of people will have suffered at the hands of these African gangs apparently running wild on the streets of Melbourne.

    These sorts of scare campaigns can be very effective federally when playing on fears of things like terrorism, but I’m not sure it really translates to garden variety domestic crime at a state level – unless people have genuine cause to feel like this is a problem (where, even if they haven’t experienced or witnessed it personally, there are at least has a number of legitimate cases being reported on the news), it just reeks of opportunism on the part of those raising the alarm. Just how many actual incidents of violence have their been? (Genuine question, I’m not really up on the details here.)

  37. You don’t want ex PMs, with all the insider knowledge they necessarily possess, sitting on street corners with their hats out. And, of course, some of them do good work out of Parliament (still waiting for Howard to work for that charity he used to say he would in retirement…)

  38. lizzie @ #132 Monday, October 29th, 2018 – 7:18 am

    Stuart Robert is one of the government’s top money-men. The Liberal Party looks after him as he is a gun fund-raiser who bankrolls campaigns in marginal seats. He is also quite the Teflon Man, sailing from one scandal to the next: Rolex watches from the Chinese, outrageous home internet bills and unusually high office rents; water off a duck’s back.
    …
    Having quit the front bench in 2016, after an internal investigation found he had shares in a trust linked to the mining company of a Liberal donor, Stuart Robert has proven a political Lazarus, resurrected to the ministry to take stewardship of the corporate regulator, the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, despite his other business interests being investigated by ASIC.
    …
    Robert is the LNP’s best fundraiser in Queensland. He is a valuable money-man for the Liberal Party. One MP said the Fadden Forum was Stuart Robert’s main source of power in the party. He is also a roommate of Prime Minister and fellow Pentacostalist Scott Morrison. Robert was a key supporter and numbers man for Morrison in the recent leadership spill.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/close-to-the-wind-the-trials-of-liberal-money-man-stuart-robert/

    Thanks for all this Lizzie.

    What charming people these Pentecostals are.

  39. Roger Miller @ #109 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 11:57 pm

    The Coalitions time in opposition starts now. They may be sitting on the government benches for the next six months, but they have no plan, no pressing legislative agenda and no reason to be there other than they are not Labor.
    The coalitions predictions of chaos if/when Phelps won were spot on, not because minority government can’t work, but because the coalition can’t work minority government. They have had enough trouble trying to make majority government work.

    This. Perfect summation. Cup of tea and this.

  40. ItzaDream

    “He is also a roommate of Prime Minister and fellow Pentecostalist”.

    ——————-

    Is something going on here? Or are they so tight they share a bedroom to save money? Very weird?

  41. Although I agree that hearing less of Morrison would improve his ratings, it’s for very different reasons to those set out in this article!

    ‘that experience characterised his first months as Treasurer. He treated a complex portfolio like a simple one, attempting to bludgeon his way through with slogans and clumsy political attacks. But, after a time, he realised his new job was more complex than his old one. His language became more nuanced, he attacked less, and he began to earn respect.’

    …and he was one of the most invisible Treasurers in modern times.

    Earlier in the article, Sean Kelly refers to Morrison as ‘a little known leader’. Very few previous Treasurers, had they assumed the PM ship, would have merited that description.

    ‘With a maximum of six months until the start of an election campaign, you can forgive Morrison for feeling a sense of urgency. His approach is to fill every waking hour – ours and his – with soundbites. But a more valuable way to spend his time would be out of sight, talking to his colleagues and developing policy, popping up only when it is essential to do so. ‘

    No mention that – as the Wentworth election numbers clearly demonstrate – the more voters saw of Morrison, the less they liked him.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/if-scott-morrison-wants-to-get-re-elected-he-needs-to-learn-to-shut-up-20181026-p50c7w.html

    I agree with Kelly – Morrison would do better if he shut up. But my arguments are completely different – the evidence is that the more voters see him, the less they like him.

    Not a suggestion of that in the article, however…

  43. Upnorth @ #22 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 8:53 pm

    Had problems logging in before. Great result for Labor. Three in a row for Upnorth. Think the punters are waking up that Scomo is a no go and a Snake Oik Salesman. The longer he goes now. The more he will fall. As has been said before – a beautiful set of numbers.

    I think Snake Oik Salesman fits this week’s Prime Muppet perfectly.

  44. I think you find that a lot of MPs share houses in Canberra. Remember Nelson used to live in the garage of Joe Hockey’s place?

  46. FORMER AFL star Colin Sylvia has died aged 32.

    The ex-Melbourne and Fremantle player was killed in a car accident near Mildura, Victoria, on Sunday. Demons legend Garry Lyon spoke about the tragedy on radio on Monday morning.

    “Colin Sylvia has tragically been killed in a car accident near Mildura, just out of Mildura last night,” Lyon told SEN.

    “Colin was taken really early in the draft, I think pick number three, was a really talented footballer at the Melbourne footy club.

    “Our condolences and sympathies are extended to Colin Sylvia and his family and friends.”

    Former Melbourne teammate Brent Moloney and St Kilda’s Sam Fisher were among those to pay tribute to Sylvia on social media.

    “I still can’t believe it. Words can’t describe how I’m feeling!!! We were always side by side no matter where we were,” Moloney wrote on Instagram.

    “My thoughts go out to his beautiful family, I’m gonna miss you brother x Gone to soon R.I.P Col xx.”

  49. Zoomster, how’s thing? Puppy a wild adolescent? First snake yesterday, not too keen on having its sleep in them mulch pile disturbed.

    I don’t disagree with providing for retired PMs, though the largesse seems excess (up to three staff?) and the returns on investment questionable, FPMJG the great exception. What a woman. History will be good to her.

  50. Germany, which has pledged to suspend arms exports to Saudi Arabia over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, says it expects the European Union to adopt a common position on potential limits to weapons sales.

    On the other hand former bankster Macron lets his inner bankster show through.

    Macron slams calls to halt arms sales to Saudi as populist

    “What’s the link between arms sales and Mr Khashoggi’s murder? ………………..“That’s pure demagoguery to say ‘we must stop arms sales’. It’s got nothing to do with Mr Khashoggi,” he added.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-khashoggi-france/macron-slams-calls-to-halt-arms-sales-to-saudi-as-populist-idUSKCN1N01XV

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