Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 62
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  1. B S Fairman

    “I think you find a lot of MPs share houses in Canberra”.
    —————

    Yes, but how many share bedrooms?

  2. Wonder what happened to the dramatic narrowing 🙂

    nath says:
    Sunday, October 14, 2018 at 10:24 pm
    There has been a dramatic narrowing in only a few weeks. If Morrison can get to 51-49 by Christmas then Bill Shorten’s terrible personal numbers become more critical.

  3. Itza

    Puppy is fine, except when confronted by rake/broom/wheelbarrow, which all need to be destroyed for the good of the world (she has chewed the prongs off my leaf rake). Also has an ongoing and escalating war with the geese.

    I’ve seen more snakes this year than ever before, mostly blacks but a nice stripey tiger the other day. Fortunately the dogs don’t appear to see them (numerous times when they’ve already passed the snake, I give an involuntary call on seeing it, and they run back to me…)

  4. Thanks LIzzie for this mornings news roundup and good morning.

    Just a note regarding MPs sleeping in garages – perfectly reasonable.

    Letting them out – not so reasonable. 😇

  5. Briefly
    “This really is a government without a purpose…”
    Oh contraire mon ami… it exists to destroy everything that stands in the way profits. The only variation being the electoral expenditure required to remain in power.

  8. “A primary vote of 36% and a two party preferred vote of 46% for the Coalition, actually is something of a miracle considering how bad this government is going to be regarded as one of the worst in Australian history.”

    I wonder if Newspoll are still doing their One Nation fandango with the distribution of preferences? I seriously doubt that this omnishambles could garner another 10 points on preferences. Especially with ON stuck on 6% primaries.

  12. Will the Guardian mention the latest Newspoll? The answer would probably be ‘no’ if Katharine had her way, but Lenore will have the final word, thankfully.

  13. zoomster @ #153 Monday, October 29th, 2018 – 8:15 am

    Itza

    Puppy is fine, except when confronted by rake/broom/wheelbarrow, which all need to be destroyed for the good of the world (she has chewed the prongs off my leaf rake). Also has an ongoing and escalating war with the geese.

    I’ve seen more snakes this year than ever before, mostly blacks but a nice stripey tiger the other day. Fortunately the dogs don’t appear to see them (numerous times when they’ve already passed the snake, I give an involuntary call on seeing it, and they run back to me…)

    The best ‘snake dog’ we’ve ever had was a black and tan female, Sissy, who at about 5m would freeze and stare, and there it was, up ahead, or already slinked off. Wonderful dog. What sense was that? Instinct; sight; smell? Do snakes (have a) smell?

  16. Itza

    The local farmers say they can smell them, but some say that might be the mice the snakes are there to hunt.

    I can always tell when a dog has seen a snake – they react totally differently to any other creature. If I see a dog not moving a muscle and fixedly staring at one spot, I know there’s a snake.

  17. Tony Burke
    ‏@Tony_Burke
    31m

    For all the talk about this oceans conference I haven’t seen much about the ocean. Australia has removed more area from ocean conservation than any other gov ever, gov failed to act on climate change, and privatised responsibility for Great Barrier Reef.

  18. zoomster

    If I see a dog not moving a muscle and fixedly staring at one spot

    My Golden reacted just the same when he first saw a large deer in the garden. I fear he’s blind to snakes, though.

  22. ”
    Andrew says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 9:40 pm
    A beautiful set of numbers. LNP down on everything, nothing for MSM to spin for them
    ”
    Andrew
    MSM is spinning that Morrison is still leading Shorten in PPM stakes although you & I might think that does not win elections

  23. “I know youse all will find this hard to believe, but no mention of Newspoll on ABC news or AM.”

    It got a run on Radio National around 7:30.

  25. Gittins

    When something shouldn’t have been allowed to happen in the first place, it’s no crime to belatedly reverse it. Talk of “sovereign risk” is self-interested bulldust. You can’t have a democracy in which governments are forbidden to change course.

    But none of this seems to describe Morrison’s motivations. He want price cuts, he wants them now, and he doesn’t much care what stick he waves to get them.

    A word of free advice, Scott: claiming to have achieved bigger price cuts than the punters see in their quarterly bills will only make them angrier.

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/sensible-electricity-rules-await-the-next-government-20181028-p50cfq.html?btis

  26. ”
    Roger says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 9:42 pm
    What a shock.

    The worst honeymoon ever is over

    And now it begins
    ”
    What honeymoon? LNP always railed 47-53 or worse since Morrison took over as PM

  28. ”
    Fulvio Sammut says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 9:48 pm
    Great result.

    I haven’t been able to log into the last universal thread all afternoon, and still can’t. I have missed some of the gloating!

    Anyone else had this problem
    ”
    Me too

  30. ”
    Aunt Mavis says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 9:49 pm
    Great and deserving result, indicative of Morrison’s ineptness in the week preceding Wentworth.
    ”
    I like to modify that. Ineptness since he took over as PM

  32. Good morning all.

    Can anyone please tell me if they are still having difficulty when posting. Namely, being asked to fill in name and email address each time? I am getting that message every time.

  34. Guytaur @8:35.

    “Miranda Devine has taken aim at the Greens”

    Does Miranda have a shred of self awareness in what she says? Another example of the far right accusing their enemies of what they themselves are doing.

  36. ”
    sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 9:54 pm
    People can see a lot of Tony Abbott in Scotty – BrainFarts, no consultation, tin ear, oblivious to consequences, poor judgement, bad policies
    ”
    Keep going Sprocket

  37. lizzie @ #167 Monday, October 29th, 2018 – 8:41 am

    For all the talk about this oceans conference I haven’t seen much about the ocean. Australia has removed more area from ocean conservation than any other gov ever, gov failed to act on climate change, and privatised responsibility for Great Barrier Reef.

    And then there’s the dismantling of the Climate Change Authority.

    Phelps is onto this.

    “It’s the first thing that we could actually do – to reinstate the funding and the scientific credibility of the Climate Change Authority,” Dr Phelps told Fairfax Media. “It’s very important that we do have an independent authority looking at the evidence and providing advice to governments.”

    During Senate estimates last week, authority members admitted Josh Frydenberg, then environment and energy minister, had not sought their input for the Turnbull government’s signature climate and energy policy.

    A spokeswoman for the authority confirmed to Fairfax Media that, as outlined in the current budget, the Morrison government’s policy is for the agency “to be wound up within the life of the current Parliament”. Such a move would require legislation to pass.

    https://outline.com/uq6CXm
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/first-thing-phelps-set-sights-on-reviving-fortunes-of-climate-body-20181027-p50cd3.html

    And her engagement with the ex-chief of slowly submerging Kiribati is in stark contrast to the ill mannered, uninvited and insulting intrusion by Melissa Price.

  39. Morning all, and thanks lizzie for today’s wrap.

    Via PvO, unsurprisingly trust in banks is at an all time low.

    :large

  40. “It’s the first thing that we could actually do – to reinstate the funding and the scientific credibility of the Climate Change Authority,” Dr Phelps told Fairfax Media. “It’s very important that we do have an independent authority looking at the evidence and providing advice to governments.”

    I really do hope she pushes the govt for action on global warming. She would have support from Bandt, Wilkie, Sharkie and Labor in the House, and could actually get a motion up. Why not start with reinstating the Climate Change Authority?

  41. Fess

    Labor is going to be able to some really good regulatory reform of the financial sector thanks to the Bank Royal Commission. The timing is working out well for the election too 🙂

  42. Scomo, the man with a ready answer for everything was asked how he felt about the latest Newspoll result. He responded with wtte that he wasn’t going to be distracted by it. He didn’t ask for the job in the first place and he was just getting on with it in the best way that he can.

    Poor Scomo. It must be so hard being drafted into a job that you didn’t even want.

  43. Ven @ #178 Monday, October 29th, 2018 – 8:50 am

    ”
    Fulvio Sammut says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 9:48 pm
    Great result.

    I haven’t been able to log into the last universal thread all afternoon, and still can’t. I have missed some of the gloating!

    Anyone else had this problem
    ”
    Me too

    I spent a lot of time yesterday with this problem. I eventually Googled and picked up an earlier thread – which ran OK.—–

    Start by clearing cache CTRL F5.

    Then – Click on Dashboard you should then be able to goto whatever thread you want.

    See how you go. Good luck.

  44. ”
    Gecko says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 10:12 pm
    HH
    The countries rooted … underemployed, systems rorted, no energy policy, no carbon policy, ABC shit, NBN crap, services depleated, wages stagnating, inequality rife, world finance heading for a clusterfuck… no amount of imputation credit or incarcerated children can negate that. Oz 36% moronic.
    ”
    Anything else?

  45. Hmmm ,what is going on ? The US secret squirrels were also aware and likewise did not warn him.
    .
    .
    UK ‘knew of Khashoggi plot’

    British intelligence was reportedly aware of a Saudi plot to kidnap Jamal Khashoggi three weeks before he was murdered.

    ………………But the British security source claimed that the British knew the movement of the hit squad the day before the murder, even warning Saudi Arabia. The paper said: ”Crucially, the highly-placed source confirms that MI6 had warned his Saudi Arabian counterparts to cancel the mission – though this request as ignored.

    https://outline.com/w3EYHK

  46. Does anyone know what Cathy McGowan’s views on global warming are? Is she in favour of Australia implementing effective measures to reduce our GHGEs, or is she all about lowering electricity prices and giving lip service to climate change?

    For an independent she really does fly off radar. I can’t remember seeing or hearing one interview with her outside of election night the whole time she’s been in parliament.

  49. McGowan latest interview was this morning:

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/tide-of-public-opinion-has-turned-on-offshore-detention/10440348

    The intransigent issue of asylum seeker children on Nauru may have reached a tipping point in this country.

    The Morrison Government is now facing unprecedented calls to evacuate the remaining refugee kids and their families from the Pacific Island.

    The latest pressure point is a weekend opinion poll in the News Corp papers which found that 80 per cent of voters want the children transferred to New Zealand.

    While the Prime Minister says he wont “horse trade” on border protection it’s one of the critical issues for the crossbenchers who are keeping the government in power.

  50. He didn’t ask for the job in the first place and he was just getting on with it in the best way that he can.

    Bloody cheek!!!

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