Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria (and introducing the PB state election guide)

With the election less than a month away, a new Victorian poll suggests the Coalition’s troubles weigh heavier in the balance than Labor’s.

With the official campaign period set to begin tomorrow evening, Newspoll has a freshly minted state poll from Victoria, conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1092. It shows a blowout in Labor’s hitherto narrow lead, from 51-49 at the previous poll in April to 54-46. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 41%, with the Coalition down two to 39% and the Greens steady on 11%. On personal ratings, Daniel Andrews is up two on approval to 45% and down seven on disapproval to 40%, While Matthew Guy is down one to 31% and up one to 46%. Andrews holds a 45-29 lead as preferred premier, out from 41-34. A question on the impact of Malcolm Turnbull’s dumping found 16% saying it made them more likely to vote Liberal, 30% less likely and 45% no difference.

The results are consistent with other evidence recently, namely a 53-47 result from YouGov Galaxy in a privately conducted poll and reports of internal polling from both major parties in The Australian. There also a ReachTEL poll for Bike Australian of Prahran, which shows Labor set to win the seat from the Greens.

I am also proud to unveil, just in time for this evening’s issue of the writs to officially launch campaign proceedings, the comprehensive Poll Bludger state election guide. Its features:

• A poll tracker facility that currently credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53.3-46.7, or a 1.8% swing in their favour (NB: the two-party numbers in the table at the bottom aren’t exactly the ones I want there, but it will do for now).

• A meticulous overview of the general electoral and political situation.

• Painstakingly detailed and consumer friendly guides to all eighty-eight lower house seats.

• Ditto for the eight regions that constitute the Legislative Council.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

111 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria (and introducing the PB state election guide)”

  1. So does anyone think the Libs can win? If law and order scares are their only “fresh” campaign idea then there is not much hope of a change in trend. Guy is not exactly a cleanskin to be running such a line anyway. And its hard to see a visit from ScumMo winning any votes other than the religious right that will not vote Labor anyway. So wherer do the Libs get vites from? Unless Andrews makes a major blunder during the campaign this looks over.
    On Sportsbet Labor are paying $1.45, Coalition $2.70

  2. The problem the Liberals had when they won in 2010 is it was total unexpected. They had a whole heap of empty promises they were suddenly trying to meet and no plan for how to govern. By the time they had worked out they were governing, Shaw had screwed things up badly.

  3. In Carrum, one of Victoria’s most marginal seats, the Lib candidate Donna Bauer admitted at a public meeting yesterday that the Liberal Party were planning to renege on one of their local transport promises – specifically that the extension of suburban trains to Baxter will actually only go to Langwarrin. She then tried to defend that by saying “that’s the nature of political promises”.

    Astoundingly bad move when you’re trying to wrest power from a government who’ve actually spent 4 years building stuff.

  4. B.S. Fairman

    Yes probably the case – they made promises thinking they would never have to fulfil them. It reminds me of Abbott in 2010 – he had all these dubious costings that I think were going to come out in the days after the election. He figured if he lost no-one would care or even ask about them, and if he won he could just do the old “I inherited a budget black hole” trick. The trouble was it was a hung parliament and the few crossbenchers who would decide the government were interested in his dubious numbers!

    In the same vein I suppose the major parties sometimes preselect people who they think can’t win safe seats from their opponents. Then there is a landslide and they have members they didn’t really want or possibly even vet very well. Sometimes comes back to bite them.

  5. So unlucky for government that there is always a few high profile criminal incidents a week to keep Guy’s crime narrative alive. It hasnt worked for him yet and hopefully wont till the election day.

  6. And who is of the opinion that any election of Guy is going to impact on the level of such incidents?

    Unfortunately there is an element in society who conduct themselves in such a manner – and for raft of reasons starting with drugs and going to social exclusion

    Mind you, under any Liberal administration media may change their reporting regime

    “Matthew Guy is the premier so now I am too scared to break the law”

    The statistics show crime rates are down, police numbers have been increased and there continue to be arrests, convictions and penalties

    Plus economic activity in Victoria is being driven by government spending on infrastructure creating employment opportunities

    In fact, it could be argued that Victoria is holding the Nation up with Retail Sales the latest indicator

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