Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria (and introducing the PB state election guide)

With the election less than a month away, a new Victorian poll suggests the Coalition’s troubles weigh heavier in the balance than Labor’s.

With the official campaign period set to begin tomorrow evening, Newspoll has a freshly minted state poll from Victoria, conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1092. It shows a blowout in Labor’s hitherto narrow lead, from 51-49 at the previous poll in April to 54-46. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 41%, with the Coalition down two to 39% and the Greens steady on 11%. On personal ratings, Daniel Andrews is up two on approval to 45% and down seven on disapproval to 40%, While Matthew Guy is down one to 31% and up one to 46%. Andrews holds a 45-29 lead as preferred premier, out from 41-34. A question on the impact of Malcolm Turnbull’s dumping found 16% saying it made them more likely to vote Liberal, 30% less likely and 45% no difference.

The results are consistent with other evidence recently, namely a 53-47 result from YouGov Galaxy in a privately conducted poll and reports of internal polling from both major parties in The Australian. There also a ReachTEL poll for Bike Australian of Prahran, which shows Labor set to win the seat from the Greens.

I am also proud to unveil, just in time for this evening’s issue of the writs to officially launch campaign proceedings, the comprehensive Poll Bludger state election guide. Its features:

• A poll tracker facility that currently credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53.3-46.7, or a 1.8% swing in their favour (NB: the two-party numbers in the table at the bottom aren’t exactly the ones I want there, but it will do for now).

• A meticulous overview of the general electoral and political situation.

• Painstakingly detailed and consumer friendly guides to all eighty-eight lower house seats.

• Ditto for the eight regions that constitute the Legislative Council.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

111 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria (and introducing the PB state election guide)”

  1. Someone above saying their priority is getting rid of Rachel Carling-Jenkins (formerly DLP, formerly Conservatives):

    Good news!! She quit the Bernardi-Pardi back in August, and is not recontesting for the upper house.

    Instead, she has announced that she is standing as an independent for Werribee in the lower house, where she hasn’t got any shot whatsoever.

    Can’t work out if this means she’s basically decided to retire, or if she actually has dreams of winning a seat at some point again.

  2. The reason why a person like Rachel Carling-Jenkins stands again even if their chances are next to zero is because they get paid the losing politicians payments (3 months of pay) if they stand and lose. If they finish their terms but don’t stand, they get zilch.

  3. The official election period has now started.

    https://www.dpc.vic.gov.au/index.php/policies/caretaker-conventions-2018

    Caretaker Conventions 2018

    The Government will enter caretaker period in the lead up to the 2018 Victorian State election. Unless called earlier, the election is scheduled to be held on 24 November 2018. The caretaker period begins with the expiry of the Legislative Assembly at 6:00 pm on Tuesday, 30 October 2018 (or an earlier date if the Legislative Assembly is dissolved earlier).

  4. B.S. Fairman

    I had no idea about that. Explains a lot – I have often wondered at why disendorsed or expelled party members bother running as an “independent” in their seat when they have zero chance of winning, but that is obviously why.

  5. William – any thoughts on the independent Darryn Lyons’ chances in Geelong?

    William Bowe @at 5:35 pm

    Zero, if the people of Geelong have the faintest whit of good sense. Wasn’t actually aware of his running though.

    Lyons is running in Geelong as an independent. There are two aspects to his candidacy. One is that he hates the sitting member Christine Couzens (the feeling is mutual) who he chiefly blames for his being sacked a mayor by the state government.

    The other is that he’s a proxy for the Liberals, who otherwise wouldn’t stand a chance of winning the seat. His campaign is being managed by a former treasurer of the fundraising arm of the Geelong region’s Liberal Party branches, and a number of Liberals and fellow travellers are backing him. They hope he’ll pry votes from Couzens which will be returned to the Liberal candidate, whom he will undoubtedly preference.

    He was elected as mayor, but a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then, and what appeal he had has undoubtedly waned – how much so remains to be seen.

  6. B.S. Fairman.

    Makes sense, thanks for the info. Wasn’t aware of that.

    Does it alter anything though, that the seat she’s standing for isn’t the same one she’s vacated?

  7. I’d be taking these poll figures at face value. Andrews and his government have got on with the job of Governing. They’ve spent bucket loads on infrastructure and there is a lot more visionary projects. They have also, cleverly spent the money right across the State.

    Posters should remember that Greens traditionally poll better than they actually receive votes and given they have become almost invisible here in Victoria, I’d say that tradition will continue.

    Labor are sitting very well for an increased vote and an increase in representation.

  8. PM Scott Morrison says he definitely will be joining Matthew Guy in the Victorian campaign. #7NewsMelb.

    Morrison will Stop the Votes for the Libs!

  9. It’s possible to construct scenarios where Labor gets a 54-46 result and still doesn’t get a majority (say, if they lose Richmond and Brunswick to the Greens, fail to regain Northcote, and lose Pascoe Vale to an independent, whilst only gaining Ripon).

    In practice, though, I would expect that an overall result like that would see Labor picking off at least one or two of the six Liberal eastern suburbs seats on margins between 3% and 6%. If the experience of the last Labor government is anything to go by, this is a region which is reluctant to vote for Labor from opposition but prepared to support it in government – swings in the area were below par in both 1999 and 2014, but massive in 2002.

    Also, if the poll published for Prahran is even close to accurate, the Liberals have little chance of winning the seat and it will go to whoever out of the Greens and Labor makes the final pair. (The poll quoted an ALP-Greens 2PP but that would only happen if the Liberals come third, which seems unlikely).

  10. The craziness in the USA before these midterms continues unabated
    Now even Kayne West who unfortunately is mentally unstable, no longer wants to be part of the Trump shit show.
    What gives?

  11. It’s good to see the ALP announcing more level crossing removals. However, they aren’t commited to going the full hog and providing the best possible facilities at these locations. At Mooroolbark, there is going to be an additional 450 car spaces provided at the station. That amounts to about 3 carriages worth of people.

    What they haven’t commited to is to upgrade the cycling infrastructure around the station or provide a trail along the railway line. There are many legacy bike paths in the area that date back from the 1980s, they are patchy and not well defined but for a much smaller spend than the cost of the ugly multi-story car-park, you can get hundreds of people to the station easily and be able to “park at the door.” You can also then tag into the wider network with the Carrum to Warburton trail going past within 800m of the station.

    There is an opportunity here to improve the live-ability of the area for minimal spend. Will they take full advantage of the opportunity?

    https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-37.7941235,145.3196983,3a,75y,318.35h,84.15t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sHlaeQKPupCoAkux7euriqQ!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo0.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DHlaeQKPupCoAkux7euriqQ%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D66.22244%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656!5m1!1e3

  12. Alpha Zero

    That is interesting, when you click back out of your link to the map (on my computer at least). Yes there is a real hodge-podge of trails and paths. The ones along the Eastern Freeway, the Ring Road and Eastlink have at least been planned to join up along those routes but for the most part the rest don’t really encourage cycling as there are dangerous stretches to be done on roads in between.

    https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-37.9138442,144.9582122,10z/data=!5m1!1e3

    The Warburton trail is on the old train line from Lilydale isn’t it? Have you cycled it? Google maps is telling me it’s 40km, about the same as the driving distance.

  13. Rocket Rocket,

    I have ridden on all of the trails in the area and some of the ones that are proposed but don’t yet exist 😉

    The Warburton trail follows to old railway line from Lilydale to Warburton. It’s a grindy climb to Mt Evelyn but by and large flat thereafter. It is a gravel surface for the majority of it’s length between Lilydale and Warburton so it is faster to ride on the main road if you are heading for Warburton or Mt Donna Buang.

    As for Croydon, Mooroolbark, Kilsyth and Montrose, there is a fair amount of cycling infrastructure there, but I doubt that many people locally would know that it exists or where the trails go.

  14. Matthew Guy promising cheaper parking at hospitals to holders of health care cards, veterans, pensioners and disability pensioners as well as people who need frequent treatment for chronic conditions.

    A $10M price tag – very low hanging fruit.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/guy-promises-cheaper-hospital-parking-20181031-p50d31.html
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/state-election/opposition-leader-matthew-guy-promises-cheaper-hospital-parking/news-story/9d9ea58a1195e69facdbf7cb2b1368e3

    I note that the linked articles don’t mention the conditions to obtain cheaper parking, they just say “Will make parking cheaper!”

  15. From the Murdoch Herald Sun

    “Liberals at loggerheads”

    The treasurer of the Victorian Liberals called Kroger “self serving, autocratic behaviour and rantings”, wasting $1.1 Million in legal fees v Cormack in a failed application and being “a transactional politician whose behaviour had blown up the party”

    And they seek to govern the State!!!

    This is just confirmation of what I have been putting on these sites in regards the Liberal Party Victorian Division – and now it is in the public domain courtesy of Murdoch (of all people!!)

    And, hiding in the background there are Mr and Mrs Bastiaan waiting until after the election to resume public ownership of the Party

    Then they had a CEO, transferred from Tasmania who defrauded them!!

  16. Alpha Zero @ #65 Wednesday, October 31st, 2018 – 1:33 pm

    Matthew Guy promising cheaper parking at hospitals to holders of health care cards, veterans, pensioners and disability pensioners as well as people who need frequent treatment for chronic conditions.

    A $10M price tag – very low hanging fruit.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/guy-promises-cheaper-hospital-parking-20181031-p50d31.html
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/state-election/opposition-leader-matthew-guy-promises-cheaper-hospital-parking/news-story/9d9ea58a1195e69facdbf7cb2b1368e3

    I note that the linked articles don’t mention the conditions to obtain cheaper parking, they just say “Will make parking cheaper!”

    The irony in this announcement is that Guy made it at the Austin Hospital which every local knows Kennett wanted to sell off as a prime residential development when in office.

    This fact resonates out this way. So, every time the Libs make an announcement near the Austin Hospital it only reminds us what they actually think about this area.

  17. I can’t see the independent getting up in Pascoe Vale. It is a lot harder for urban independents in General elections than rural ones. For one thing, the media market in rural areas is only focused on local seats (One or two) versus the 50 odd urban seats. Also the price of TV and radio advertising is non-prohibitive in rural markets (Sheed in Shepparton had TV ads).

  18. Second part of the Victorian state Newspoll

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/newspoll-victorian-voters-cool-on-liberals-tough-line-on-crime/news-story/36fd50d844f2df406805554709dd0ed8 paywalled

    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/03a060175332a7200f994cba157811ea table here, no paywall

    Newspoll: Victorian voters cool on Liberals’ tough line on crime
    Samantha Hutchinson Victorian State Political Writer
    Rachel Baxendale Victorian Political Reporter
    12:00AM October 31, 2018

    Matthew Guy’s tough line on crime and youth gangs appears to be falling flat with voters, who are split on which party is best at handling law-and-order issues.

    Despite a slogan promising to “Get back in control” and a platform pledging sentencing reforms ensuring “jail means jail”, a Newspoll survey for The Australian found voters less convinced of the Liberal Party’s ability to handle crime than they were April.

    Thirty-nine per cent of respondents said they believed the Liberals would be best at managing law and order, while 38 per cent thought Labor would be better.

    This is a fall of seven percentage points for the Liberals since April, while Labor gained a point.

    Voters’ views on which party is best able to handle energy and the economy will also be of concern to the Coalition. When asked which of the two major parties was best at maintaining Victoria’s energy supply and keeping power prices lower, 43 per cent of voters backed Labor and 32 per cent picked Liberal, while 25 per cent were undecided.

    That is a fall of eight points for the Liberals from April, when 40 per cent of responders said they were better placed to handle the energy supply and 42 per cent chose Labor.

    Of the undecided group, 20 per cent were Coalition voters.

    When asked which of the two major parties would be best at managing Victoria’s economy, 45 per cent backed Labor and 37 per cent backed Liberal, while 18 per cent were uncommitted.

  19. B.S. Fairman

    Normally I’d agree with that, except the Libs haven’t announced a candidate yet, and if they don’t then the 25% who normally vote for the Liberals have to go somewhere (or there’ll just be a big informal vote).

    Blandthorn will take a hit, although probably not a 17% hit. In a “reverse Maltzahn” manoeuvre, the Greens may siphon off some of her vote, bringing her down to 40% primary, the Greens up over 20% primary, then depends where all the preferences of people who’d otherwise vote Liberal go.

  20. One assumes that the hospitals use parking machines. So how will they process a discount. Modify them to swipe a discount card? Get people to send in reciepts for a refund. Basically they will need to convert them all to number plate scanning sites and enable a link to plates registered for discounts. So $10m for the discount and $10m for the system to enable it.

  21. Not so sure this is the election for the Greens, particularly after the news this morning that one of their candidates resigned for bragging about shoplifting online. She claims the comments were a joke but nevertheless she has stood down from one of the Upper House tickets.

    I’m not willing to make too many predictions just yet. In Tasmania, voters seemed to wait until the polls suggested there was a winner and then people fell in line behind the Libs, perhaps not wanting a hung parliament. The same could yet happen in Victoria with a landslide to Labor.

  22. Possibly the least useful poll of this campaign was published in today’s Geelong Advertiser, based on a sample of less than 100 taken on a Geelong street. (For the record, they think Lyons is looking good).

  23. The big problems for the liberals are that their main theme to campaign on “Getting tough on crime” when crime numbers have been falling is a very difficult thing to do. It doesn’t sway the swinging voters. Same story for the re-introduction of Religious Instruction – won’t sway votes towards them.

    As for infrastructure and projects – the Andrews government have got a lot of stuff done. The program of work has either been delivered or has been reminding people that it has been going on because Melbourne has been a construction site for the past 4 years! The main plank of the projects, the level crossing removals – seemed to be rather ambitious at the time, now they are seen as routine and achievable. If the government says they will remove 25 over the next 4 years, you know they will be gone. These are biggish projects that are deliverable, even the longer term of metro tunnel is going ahead and for the big vision of the outer circle line and line to the airport, people are more inclined to believe that the ALP actually believe in it, will start the works and will try to deliver it.

    It is very interesting to read the 2 major newspapers letters to the editor sections to see what the feedback within the echo chambers is all about. For now, it is hard to see the incumbent being dislodged whilst they are delivering and have a vision for the future.

  24. Alpha Zero

    Yes the level crossing removals when first proposed seemed an ambitious goal, but they have made a real difference on the line to Ringwood – especially the infamous shocker just next to the intersection of Maroondah Highway and Springvale Rd.

    And the Skyrail projects similarly are something obvious to see – and the reduction in congestion around Carnegie and Murrumbeena is already noticeable.

    I cannot see the Coalition getting a majority. If the Greens do keep their three seats (I actually think they will retain Prahran) and win two more it could make it hard for Labor to get to 45 but I am for the moment fairly confident Labor will get 45 somehow. And I think a few rural independents may get up (Mildura, Shepparton re-elected)

    Went past Michael Sukkar’s office again today – not one sign of involvement in the Victorian election. You may be right, he may be in witness protection, and being conveyed to a safe location (for them) by the Victorian Liberals as I write!

  25. If the Liberals don’t run in the middle Melbourne seats, the Liberal Democrats should. They are registered as party. Their candidates would be almost certain to exceed the 4% cut off for public funding as at least some of the Liberal voters will mistake the LDP for the Liberals if there is no candidate. Then the party will get a cash win fall for next to nothing.

  26. Rocket Rocket,

    Sukkar had his eyes on Menzies when Abbott was a mile behind in the polls. He is just so toxic and inept that I doubt that even the base will want him anymore.

    As for the removals – Springy road was a botched job – no direct pedestrian/cycling underpass and no space for an extra line created. Middleborough Rd has a non DDA compliant underpass and it closed off access around it, Buckley St in Essendon also wasn’t a great outcome, but by and large the authorities are getting better at putting in the bells and whistles with these projects that make the areas more accessible.

  27. I still think it is crazy Liberals considering giving up on whole electorates. Loss of money, donations, disillusioned supporters, lower upper house vote + many young people that won’t even see Liberals on the ballot but will vote for a lifetime. Seems like a pretty dumb move.

  28. The Springvale level crossing removal was the subject of Baressi’s election campaigns campaign after campaign – except

    Until Symon’s took Deakin from the Liberals – when it was actually done

    So the Springvale Road level crossing removal pre dated the Andrews government and the 50 further removals

  29. Gorks

    Yes looking at the Northern Metropolitan Upper House region on William’s excellent summary – Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote are four of the eleven Lower House seats it encompasses. The Liberals got 1.3 quotas last time and ended up going from two seats to one with Fiona Patten winning the fifth seat.

    If the Liberals don’t run Lower House candidates in any of those four seats I think they will get about 1.0-1.1 quotas – and have zero chance of getting two elected. In fact I think it would be more likely to revert to the 2006 result – 3 Labor, 1 Green, 1 Liberal. So “clever” politicking to try and get more Greens elected in the Lower House at the expense of Labor could well gift Labor one extra Upper House seat.

    One of the problems for the Liberals on this issue is they want to keep portraying the Greens as the worst outcome, and a “Labor-Green” government as the incarnation of evil. Which then makes it hard if they preference the Greens above Labor in various seats or regions – their argument falls a bit flat. So maybe it is easier to just not run in those crucial seats, and not have to deal with that problem.

    The former Victorian Nationals leader Peter Ryan had the right idea tactically – in 2010 he persuaded the Liberals to join him in always putting the Greens below Labor. That message helped the Coalition because it was seen as consistent with their values rather than being driven by cheap political gain, and I think it was a key in gaining them their upset win – the only Coalition win in Victoria in the last 22 years.

  30. The biggest problem for the Liberals if they don’t run in the inner city is how transparently cynical it will look — especially given that at the same time they’ll be yelling about the possibility of a Labor-Greens coalition in a hung parliament. It’s liable to drive wavering, usually disengaged voters straight into Labor’s arms.
    I mean, it’ll give Andrews a ready — and (gulp) very ‘cut through’ — answer to the “Will you do a deal with The Greens?” “No, which is why we’re the only party taking them on!”
    It’s a too clever by half wheeze that’ll backfire badly.

  31. @Toby Esterhase

    I dont agree. I think the liberals are only doing what is in their own best interests by simply not running candidates in melbourne, brunswick, richmond and northcote. This way, they can simply put all their best efforts into labor seats held on margins of less than 4% in the rest of melbourne. The mantra “labor-greens alliance after the election” in alluding to a hung parliament will not be all that commonly referred to from their end throughout the campaign anyway. They will simply put on the facade that they are in it to win it (whether they genuinely believe that is possible or not, I cant comment).

  32. Exactly, it will really it to accuse the Liberals of trying to cause a Hung Parliament and creating chaos, exactly the opposite of the “Get back in control” slogan.
    But the Liberals are being lead by not the brightest mob. Guy is a hack and the State director is a loose cannon, he is a “brawler” and not a strategist. So it is highly likely they will not run in the inner Melbourne seats.

    Also the ALP is well aware that this may happen and are probably prepared in some way.

  33. How hard is it to put someone on the ballot paper and run dead? How much resources can you save by not running in 5 state seats?

    Plus Labor is obviously going to try to win all 5 seats so how much extra it would cost Labor when they are already running to win.

    At 6 dollars a vote lower house and 3 dollars a vote in upper house this can cost Libs 200K+ in missed public funding. Money that will go to their opponents.

  34. The estimate going around was about $10K for a bare-bones campaign per seat. The likely return is about $50k per seat. Looks like a sound investment.

    As I said before, a minor right party should run just for the return (wouldn’t be as much but as long as they get over 4% they get paid).

  35. Yes there has been a lot of talk of the Liberals not running in the inner-city seats, but I highly doubt it will actually happen. The only chance would be if they had completely given up on a second seat in North Metro LegCo, which I doubt they have. They will nominate four nobodies (probably without even an announcement, they’ll just show up on the lists), barely campaign, and if they’re feeling particularly adventurous issue open HTVs.

    It’s a weird election for the left generally. Labor could win really quite well and still have a pretty unimpressive seat total due to the lack of really vulnerable Coalition seats. Apart from Ripon (a possibility) and Morwell (a gigantic mess, so who knows), they need a 3% swing to pick up anything at all (South Barwon). I suspect they’ll take one or two beyond the overall swing, but it won’t be really reflective of a strong result if things stay the way they are. (Of course, nudge that swing up just slightly, and a whole host of seats start to fall – but that would be a truly outstanding result for Labor.)

    As for the Greens, I doubt their overall vote will go anywhere, but they are also in the weird position where anything less than 4 seats will be a serious disappointment. Obviously they’re holding Melbourne, failure to win Brunswick would be an embarrassment, Richmond they would have won last time with a better candidate and I suspect even Maltzahn won’t counteract electoral gravity this time, and they should be able to hold Northcote. Who knows what’ll happen in Prahran, but even 5 seats will just be an expected result for them. The real interest there will be whether other seats come into contention – obviously they’re not winning any other seats this time, but it’ll be interesting to see whether they can come second in seats like Preston, Williamstown and Hawthorn. (Their LegCo situation is pretty dire and I suspect their gains in the lower house will be balanced by losses in the upper, which is a novel situation for a minor party to be in.)

    As for the LegCo crossbench, who knows what that will look like, and if Labor doesn’t legislate to get rid of group ticket voting next term they deserve whatever hell they’ll have to deal with. (Even if they have a monstrous crossbench, they should still be able to get the Greens and Coalition to support this legislation and get it through.)

  36. Unitary State,
    I don’t agree. My point was that whatever the Liberals might think and say (or not say), it gives Labor a pretty good stick to beat them with.

  37. The 2010 move by the Liberals to put the Greens last was hailed as a masterstroke at the time, but turned out to be an unmitigated catastrophe – four years of hell at the mercy of a single rogue backbencher with no crossbench to turn to, followed by getting chucked straight back to the wilderness. It’s no wonder they’ve been trying to backpedal ever since. The only problem is that they were so strident in portraying the Greens as the worst kind of evil, they painted themselves into a corner.

  38. The 2010 Liberal decision to preference the Greens last and make a point of doing it was perfect politics for that type of election, where there was an aging ALP government and a minority ALP Commonwealth Government (with RGR issues) with Green support. Had they won another seat and thus not been hostage to Geoff Shaw, they probably would have won a second term, although they would struggling now. Had they been able to call a new election just after Napthine go in, they would likely have got a second term.

  39. Tom,

    And had the Greens won a seat or two at Labor’s expense, the Liberals wouldn’t have been hostage to Geoff Shaw (not as much, anyway) and would probably have got a second term.

    Actually, check that. I’m not convinced their chances of a second term were all that great under any circumstances, given the wafer-thin majority and the fact that swings towards first-term governments are fairly rare. But they would have stood a damn sight better chance with a couple of crossbenchers weakening Labor’s position.

  40. I see the murdoch media and credlin are really turning their guns onto the andrews government.

    they keep damning them as ‘Australia’s most left-wing/socialist government’

    I’d make the points:
    1. that’s a plus not a minus
    2. it’s not a high bar – andrews is still centre-right
    3. why does credlin get such high profile and ‘cred’ from the Oz – she was/is the toxic minder of the most toxic and dysfunctional politician of his generation (even beats Rudd there).

  41. Rocket Rocket @ #76 Thursday, November 1st, 2018 – 1:39 pm

    Alpha Zero

    And the Skyrail projects similarly are something obvious to see – and the reduction in congestion around Carnegie and Murrumbeena is already noticeable.

    I traveled on some of the SkyRail yesterday down to Clayton and the dreadful intersection near Monash Medical Centre.
    I was quite impressed with both the ride and the layout of the new Clayton Station.
    The intersection is a huge improvement.
    My only question would be along the lines of is there enough space to duplicate the track(s) in the future.

  42. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/10/30/newspoll-54-46-labor-victoria/comment-page-2/#comment-2992546

    Non-Green crossbenchers would have been far more useful for the Coalition than Green crossbenchers as under a Coalition Government they are not so much crossbenchers as the smaller opposition party as the Greens would never vote with the Coalition on confidence and supply.

    Good first term governments that win power from opposition narrowly have a higher rate of swings to them as they get votes from people who are happy with them but were also happy with the incumbent at the previous election. The most prominent example of this is the first two victories o the Bracks Government. The poll were on track for this to happen to the Baillieu Government before the Tristan Weston/Simon Overland matter became public.

    The Red Shits matter may well have cost the current government a 2002 style big second term swing.

    The previous two changes of government in Victoria were large swings against long term governments.

  43. Just off the top of my head (because I’m too lazy to do any research) recent examples of first-term governments getting swings their way have all been Labor – Bracks, Carr, Goss, Palathingumajig, that South Australian one, the one from WA, and I’m pretty sure there was one from Tassie going back six or seven elections. The one-term wonders, on the other hand, have all been Liberal/Coalition – Newman, Borbidge, Baillieu/Napthine, the one in the NT.

    Could be coincidence. Or maybe just my memory letting me down by blocking out counter-examples.

    And yes, obviously a coalition government would prefer non-Greens crossbenchers, but to Baillieu and Napthine any crossbench would have been miles better than none.

  44. Bolte gained 4 seats in 1958 (although they did do a redistribution and their vote fell slightly).

    The Cain Senior Government of 1952-5 was a single term government, although that was almost certainly only due to the split. They had a landslide victory (with heavy rural bias in the electoral boundaries) in 1952, had passed a much fairer redistribution in 1954 and were likely to get the Legislative Council (They had 15 of 34, with only 4 elected in in 1949 (the last Legislative Council election before the property franchise was scrapped in the Victorian Legislative Council)) in June or May (the Legislative Council elections were separate until they were combined for the 1961 election and had been held in May or June since 1904).

  45. I agree the Skyrail projects have been well done. And warnings they would drive real estate prices down have proven unfounded. The scare campaign turned out to be false. The locals realise they are getting parks and walking trails underneath them.

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