Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 62
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  1. “Does Miranda have a shred of self awareness in what she says? ”

    No. Devine is really a mindless bottom of the pond feeder.

  3. That nice Mr Benson from Mordor Media ‘cheering’ up the Liberal supporters with this litany of gloom 🙂
    .
    .
    Electorate turns on Morrison
    OCTOBER 28, 2018
    Scott Morrison’s electoral honeymoon appears to be over.

    Not only has the Coalition slipped back after signs of momentum, public opinion of Morrison’s leadership has turned sharply for the worse.

    And the Liberal Party vote is beginning to tank again…………..Morrison’s dive into negative territory has been relatively rapid and is on par with Tony Abbott and Rudd the second time around.
    https://outline.com/hfCRVj

  4. McGowan on CC:

    http://www.cathymcgowan.com.au/positions_on_other_issues

    Australia has a variable climate with a cycle of droughts, fires and ‘flooding rains’. I accept the overwhelming scientific evidence that the climate is changing. As a farmer and agricultural consultant, I have seen the change in the environment and worked with people who are continuing to be affected by these changes. Our region is heavily dependent on farming and tourism, both of which are impacted by a changing climate. Action on climate change is critical to ensuring our local economy, industry and way of life is preserved for future generations.

    I support market mechanisms as the most efficient and effective way to price carbon and reduce emissions. This policy should be coupled with continued research into energy efficient technologies, renewable energy sources and carbon sequestration.

    My priority will be to represent the long term interests of the Indi community in sustaining our environment and natural resources and I support adaptation measures where needed.

    Cathy’s commitment on climate change

    I will work with government to take active steps to reduce atmospheric carbon, safeguard industry in regional Australia, and pursue an equitable approach to climate policy, which takes into account cost of living pressures passed on to vulnerable people in our community.

  5. This may well be a 55 – 45 result without the newspoll Onanist preference fix. Anyone who thinks they’ve seen LNP infighting ain’t seen nothing yet. This is going to become a knife-fight in a closet. This poll certainly doesn’t give MPs like Julia Banks, Fat George etc any incentive to stay on the reservation.

  7. “Libs must think that town Hall meetings are not needed, they know it all!”

    Funnily enough, i think the town hall stuff that Shorten has been doing has been remarkably important. He has gotten out and connected at ground level with people..fine. But the biggest effect has probably been that Shorten has had enough experience of this by now to be able to relax and project as credible when doing the public speaking thing. He still has a few issues, takes a little while to settle in when speaking, but handles the questions pretty well and talks WITH people, not AT them like ScoMo, or down to them like Malcolm.

    Honestly, on demonstrated performance to date i dont think that Shorten need fear fronting the public, live, in pretty much any format. For the Libs….they have to be careful about the kind of exposure that ScoMo, who tends to go shouty and aggressive if challenged, is subject to once the election campaign proper starts.

    Will ScoMo do “leaders debates” or appear on something like QANDA to front up to live questioning?
    I have my doubts as to that.:)

    And FFS…Shorten has a TEAM behind him. If he went under a bus tomorrow there are viable leadership candidates on the ALP front bench. The Libs….not so much. 🙂 ALP go into this offering the electorate the best chance of STABLE Government that could actually DO the policy and governance thing for a couple of terms.

  8. ”
    Don says:
    Monday, October 29, 2018 at 8:53 am
    Good morning all.

    Can anyone please tell me if they are still having difficulty when posting. Namely, being asked to fill in name and email address each time? I am getting that message every time.
    ”
    Yes I do get that

  11. “#BREAKING: Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro appears to have won Brazil’s divisive presidential run-off election”

    Shit……unequivocally bad news for the world. 🙁

  12. “What honeymoon? LNP always railed 47-53 or worse since Morrison took over as PM”

    That’s right Ven, and that was the honeymoon!

    Don’t you remember the press gallery getting all worked up about Morrison’s relative approval ratings?

  13. “Can anyone please tell me if they are still having difficulty when posting. Namely, being asked to fill in name and email address each time?”

    Win7 / Chrome…….all good here.

  14. ”
    poroti says:
    Monday, October 29, 2018 at 9:05 am
    ”
    So UK (MI6) allegedly knew that Khashoggi is in grave danger and did not do anything about it. Contrast that with Skripal. At least regarding Russia they did not know Russian double agent will be poisoned in UK till it happened.

  15. In 2015, the British comedian Stephen Fry appeared on an Irish television program. When quizzed by the show’s host about what he would say to God in the afterlife, Fry responded, “Why should I respect a capricious, mean-minded, stupid God who creates a world so full of injustice and pain?” He was accused of running afoul of Ireland’s blasphemy laws, and Irish police opened an inquiry.

    Sounds like a very good question to me. But I would ask it a lot more tactfully than that. After all, the guy has enormous power and is prone to becoming mighty pissed off when something annoys him. The bible records that he had his chosen people wipe out whole populations – men, women and children – when they stepped out of line. That’ll teach the bastards some respect.

    I would opt for the John Cleese approach in ‘The Meaning of Life’.
    Start with a bit of flattery like ‘We think you’re super down here’ and go from there.

  16. Turnbull’s twitter account could be fun to watch for a few weeks, especially if something blows up to make him less subtle. For now liking the slide of his one-time colleagues is good enough.

  17. “as voters punish the government for the disastrous Wentworth result”

    Cart before horse?

    From the Medibank campaign to the result in Wentworth – there is always an excuse which overlooks the obvious

    And, looking at the headline only, the young and the poor are experiencing difficulty in entering the home ownership demographic

    Well, blow me down

    I would never have thought that

    Then there is the apparently unchallenged positions on energy prices of Daly at the Grattan Institute

    Well, we all see the Tax Invioces when they arrive and the increases have maintained at double digit rates annually for 5 years now

    So how relevant is the Grattan Institute?

    Simply, they do not have the answer and never will have

    Time to take advice from elsewhere

  18. Normally the Guardian is quick at reporting the Newspoll results, but not this time for some reason. Doesn’t fit the narrative?

  21. Adrian, no ABC Newspoll reporting, bullshit.

    I turned on at 8 and they were in the middle of reporting about it.

    I often wonder how reliable your ABC musings are.

    Not very!!!

  22. PvO on Newspoll.

    Today’s Newspoll reveals that even Morrison’s personal numbers are already slipping. His net satisfaction rating has dipped into negative territory, and his better PM lead over Bill Shorten has narrowed. Even those who were spruiking some sort of false honeymoon a few weeks ago (which made no sense to me when reading the polling numbers) now have to admit things are in fact dire.

    In other words the more voters see and hear from Morrison the less they like him. That is a huge problem when added to the dysfunction which will surely be punished come election time.

    It’s nigh impossible for a PM who has no experience, leads a divided party and is unpopular to lift a depressed primary vote (the Coalition is on just 36 per cent). Turnbull was all that this rabble had going for them. He was the one thing that stood between the reactionary hard right and the rest of us. Morrison sups with them as he gyrates around trying to work out what he really believes in.

    https://outline.com/4sMuHe

  23. Douglas and Milko (AnonBlock)
    Monday, October 29th, 2018 – 9:53 am
    Comment #219

    Thanks for the cartoons.

    I have finished The Rosie Project and am about to start on the sequel The Rosie Effect.

    Au revoir. 😵

  24. He was the one thing that stood between the reactionary hard right and the rest of us.

    That’s a very generous assessment of Turnbull’s performance IMO. Usually to be credited with standing between the hard right and the rest of us, you’d have to do something other than basically cave in to the right’s every demand.

  25. As a democratic process, crowd-mapping can lead to action that helps solve real-world issues. To design “inclusively” is more than a matter of providing community buildings, public transport and amenity. It’s about the determination to seek out the tricky stories of social justice – those of access, equity and diversity – and to actively shape our cities with these goals as our priority.

    https://theconversation.com/crowd-mapping-gender-equality-a-powerful-tool-for-shaping-a-better-city-launches-in-melbourne-105648

  26. I notice the story in the Oz on the Newspoll is straight stats – no attempt at spin in any direction – that tells us how bad things are for the Coalition … the Oz isn’t even going to try,

  28. Good morning Bludgers 🙂

    Back from Melbourne town to a wave of relief at the Newspoll. It seems as though, when the Coalition asked the question, ‘what do we do after losing so many Newspolls under Malcolm Turnbull, Scott Morrison was not the answer.

    Neither, it seems, has outsourcing your work and inserting former divisive leaders of the Coalition, Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce, into the public space bean a raging success. Malign miserable ghosts and reminders of seasons past when all you got for a present from these people was a lump of Coal.

  29. Thank you lizzie for this morning’s news.

    Many writers still think they don’t have a choice. … Word came to be synonymous with writing.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/oct/29/were-winning-the-war-on-word-fellow-writers-enjoy-the-freedom

    Interesting. I’ve used Notepad for years to get my thoughts down fast and easy. If I want them looking nice or need to check spelling then I copy them to an old version of Word that we’ve owned since 2007.

  30. Don, sorry, things are working fine for me. (Win 10, either Opera or Chrome) But I log in using a password. Also if it helps you figure it out, your avatar has not appeared in your recent posts.

  31. Ven:

    Aunt Mavis says:

    [‘Great and deserving result, indicative of Morrison’s ineptness in the week preceding Wentworth.’]

    Ven says:

    [‘I like to modify that. Ineptness since he took over as PM.’]

    Yes, but especially inept with his talk of relocating our embassy to Jerusalem, evidenced by early postals favouring Sharma, later ones going to Phelps – Wentworth constituents appearing to have been spooked by Morrison’s implied message of supporting Trump. Further, he must take ultimate responsibility for the dumb move to initially support Hanson’s dumb motion.

  32. Adrian…………..as posted by others, RN did mention the poll this morning but mainly in its round of up what’s in the headlines. When it came to the Oz the emphasis was on the fact that Morrison, although slipping back in the personal ratings still “dominated” his opponent…………In the segment no actual numbers were given at all.
    As somebody else suggested, news organisations tend not to tout the polls of others, and perhaps more significantly for the LNP, the lag in the polls and its poor position, do not rate as news anymore.
    After all, we are not talking about the Labor party…………………….that is, when it was in dire trouble………
    Just call me cynical………………………………

  33. imacca @ #60 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 7:16 pm

    “Abbott and those Liberal MPs like him are a cancer on our democracy,”

    Yup, but its going to take a serious electoral thrashing of the Libs, AND some rational analysis of the whys and wherefores of such a result by the Libs, to get rid of them.

    The problem with that is that some of these nutjobbies are in the safe seats that the Libs wont lose even in a thrashing. 🙁

    That’s what the WA Liberals thought in the leadup to the last election. Then they lost seats with margins in the high teens and came within a few hundred votes of losing a seat with a margin of 22.8%.

  34. I wonder if people are reacting instinctively to Morrison. He isn’t a leader, he’s a boss. And without a team behind him I can’t see him doing well.

  36. The 6 Types of Trump Trolls as Told by Rick Wilson

    He started criticizing the President. Here’s what his inbox looks like now.

    As a prominent Never Trump Republican and the author of a book on the President that is, shall we say, unsparing of his delicate ego, I’m often a target. It started in 2015 when I wrote one of the earliest objections to his candidacy for Politico. My friends in the consulting world—who now, for some mysterious reason, constantly sing the praises of Donald Trump—showered it with accolades. Then the trolling started and I met the new world that increasingly shapes Washington’s political culture.

    When I filter out a few particularly scary types—the e-mails and DMs with my home address, details about my wife and kids —what’s left are six categories. As an accidental expert on the Trump-right and their social-media lunacy, I present a field guide:

    MORE : https://www.washingtonian.com/2018/10/26/the-6-types-of-trump-trolls-as-told-by-rick-wilson/

  37. Ah, Mr Shouty Morrison. The more the voters see of him, the less they like him.

    In an era when the electorate is clearly desperate for candidates with credibility and authenticity, the Libs couldn’t have picked a worse leader than this endlessly spinning ex-marketing hack. The sooner we vote him out, the better.

  44. I can safely say 2 things about my visit to Melbourne.
    1. There were no incidents at PAX2018 where I was at the Melbourne Conference Centre. 3 days of cheek by jowl contact with every different shape, size,colour and religion and nationality of human being, all integrating and ‘Inclusiving’ themselves and taking out any aggressions they may have had, by playing games. It affirmed my faith in Aussies.

  50. Xoanon:

    [‘Ah, Mr Shouty Morrison. The more the voters see of him, the less they like him.’]

    I don’t think it’s within him to STFU for long, even over the summer break, where traditionally we are saved from being harangued by the political elite, and where a government’s stocks sometimes
    improve. Abbott’s personal metrics, for example, improved when he was neither seen nor heard.

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