Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Bushfire Bill says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 9:18 pm

    Pretty disgusting accusations there Nick.

    But I’m sure William Bowe, who appears to enjoy the presence of malignant blow-ins like yourself, and delights in defending, even encouraging them, will approve.
    _________________________________
    The cabal really do think they own this place. I guess BB donates some dollars and thinks he can dictate who should and shouldn’t be here.

  2. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 9:26 pm

    William Bowe @ #2944 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 9:15 pm

    I think a shade more civility is in order.

    I think a shade less nath is in order. I hope you noted what he said to dear lizzie yesterday.
    _____________________
    You are going to have to remind me. I can’t recall. But you do make things up to get people banned so excuse me while I am a bit skeptical.

  3. Lots of heat and smoke today. A bit like fire starting that didn’t quite work? So in this spirit, the Guardian has an opinion piece re the DT.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/02/once-again-the-daily-telegraph-prefers-a-culture-war-to-facts

    I was quietly hoping this important project would fly under the radar of the ongoing culture wars that exist within Australia, but it seems that was wishful thinking.

    It began with a piece on the Daily Telegraph website titled “Fire starting and spear throwing make national science curriculum”. Not quite unfortunately, it would be great if they were though.

  4. “But you do make things up to get people banned so excuse me while I am a bit skeptical.”

    You do write the biggest load of crap. You know very well that you made yet another of your insulting comments regarding older people yesterday. However you have a special relationship with William (at least in your own mind) and was invited by him to return to posting after your recent absence so that’s ok then.

    I may not agree with everything C@t says but I’ve never known her to “make things up” in relation to other bludgers.

  5. In order to serve a macroeconomic stabilizer function a JG has to employ people at the minimum wage. The JG’s purpose is to establish a floor for wages and working conditions in the economy.

    Yes Nicholas, but this doesn’t help me or a lot of other people who would fall through the cracks under JG as you suggest

    But in addition to the JG, the federal government should make active use of discretionary fiscal policy to hire more engineers, architects, project managers, construction workers, scientists, scholars, teachers, doctors, statisticians, and so on, to the maximum possible extent permitted by the available real resources in the economy.

    While I agree that the government can and should be doing more of this, all of this is necessary but not sufficient. It should be done, but it doesn’t mean that people don’t fall through the cracks.

    Only a UBI backing a JG can be fair to all. There should be no such thing as a disability pension.

  6. I may not agree with everything C@t says but I’ve never known her to “make things up” in relation to other bludgers.
    ______________
    C@t alleged I said something terrible about Chloe Shorten that was a damned lie.

    Also, I don’t believe I’ve ever said anything nasty to Lizzie, who is after all a rather inoffensive lady. I am going back through yesterday’s post but have found nothing so far.

  7. Please desist Nicholas. There are depths to your nastiness that the rest of the world has no interest in plumbing. I really cannot imagine how you became so confident in your staggering pig ignorance at such a young age.

  8. The only interaction yesterday i had with Lizzie was her saying to me I am ageist or something.

    To which I never responded as I don’t have any animus towards her.

    So I’d be interested in finding this atrocity.

  9. William, clearly these people come here to stir things up.

    That can be done by arguing contrarian points, and is fair enough.

    But when they start accusing other posters of plainly criminal activities without any ebidence, mocking them for their age, gender, appearance and then claiming your protection in doing these things, you’ve got a problem with your blog. A big one.

    They’re making a patsy of you, mate.

  10. William Bowe @ #2954 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 9:27 pm

    Can’t say that I did, C@t.

    Sorry, WB, I was watching Phillip Lasker’s report on Labor’s NG/CGT policy. I will go back to yesterday afternoon’s posts by nath and put it up for you. It was a disgusting slur by him to make in a public forum. It had nothing to do with politics, just like the majority of his contributions I’m afraid.

    I’ll go look for it now.


  11. Aunt Mavis says:

    Oh to be young again.


    The great pity is you can’t do it all again. I wouldn’t even ask to know what I know now.

  12. William Bowe says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 9:34 pm
    …Note that I’m now treating Wentworth as independent.

    Do you have an expectation that Phelps will retain Wentworth? Or is that just an “assumption” of treatment for your model?

  13. Regarding William Bowe’s post:

    “I’ve updated BludgerTrack, which has Labor up half a point and two seats. Note that I’m now treating Wentworth as independent.”

    Does this mean that the current BludgerTrack should say “Latest update: 02/11/2018” instead of “Latest update: 24/10/2018”?

    Just checking and a bit confused.

  14. How good is it that Newspoll and Essential are back out of sync. We only have to wait another 72 hours or so until we get another poll. It will be nearly unbearable, but so much better than having to fill in 10 days with non poll ‘discussion’.

  15. Also I did lie about having a special relationship with William. Sorry if that offended anyone, he reminds me of my once great teacher, another psephologist Professor Brian Costar whom I studied under. We spent hours talking about politics and I miss him.

  16. Unless a poster uses his/her name, not a alias, I don’t comprehend how one can take issue with what’s posted on an essentially anomynous blog such as this. And it also works both ways; that is say, a number of those complaining about other posters are not without sin themselves. Banning people because they’re provocative, or don’t follow the majority line is anethema to free speech, which is obviously something not lost on the owner of this site.

  17. nath @ #2074 Thursday, November 1st, 2018 – 1:16 pm

    Vogon Poet
    says:
    Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 1:05 pm
    don @ #2065 Thursday, November 1st, 2018 – 12:02 pm
    I thought nath had left PB?
    The celebrations were premature, obviously.
    Pretty funny that the bloke questioning Bill’s character can’t keep his own word
    _______________________________
    William asked me to return so I did.

    Is this true?

  18. ratsak @ #2984 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 7:07 pm

    How good is it that Newspoll and Essential are back out of sync. We only have to wait another 72 hours or so until we get another poll. It will be nearly unbearable, but so much better than having to fill in 10 days with non poll ‘discussion’.

    I’m at work during the day and never read back when logging in again, but from comments tonight it sounds as if the daytime comments are akin to the old Graveyard Shift of old.

  19. C@tmomma
    says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 10:13 pm
    nath @ #2074 Thursday, November 1st, 2018 – 1:16 pm
    Vogon Poet
    says:
    Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 1:05 pm
    don @ #2065 Thursday, November 1st, 2018 – 12:02 pm
    I thought nath had left PB?
    The celebrations were premature, obviously.
    Pretty funny that the bloke questioning Bill’s character can’t keep his own word
    _______________________________
    William asked me to return so I did.
    Is this true?
    _____________________
    It’s true in the sense that I felt a cosmic appeal for me to return, but no, William did not appeal for my presence.

    I’m still waiting to see any evidence of an atrocity against Lizzie, or about Chloe Shorten you claimed I said a week or so ago.

  20. Confessions @9:12PM. Have a look at the date, which is barely legible. That is a photoshopped parody of the infamous front page of Sydney’s Sunday Telegraph on the Sunday before the 2013 election: “Australia Needs Tony”. They were being given out free at my local newsagent but I declined. I had enough toilet paper.

  21. C@tmomma
    says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 10:15 pm
    nath @ #2041 Thursday, November 1st, 2018 – 12:20 pm
    The last time BB or BW got any action it was probably the Whitlam era. You guys might as well use that appendage for extra help with the keyboard.
    This is not about lizzie but it’s not funny and is tasteless.
    ______________________
    AHHH it comes out. not funny and is tasteless.
    William, any chance of recounting your horse cock joke?

  22. “I’ve updated BludgerTrack, which has Labor up half a point and two seats. Note that I’m now treating Wentworth as independent.”

    Thank god, some psephology instead of this other drivel.

    Labor up 2 seats, discuss.

  23. Aunt Mavis @ #2991 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 10:12 pm

    Unless a poster uses his/her name, not a alias, I don’t comprehend how one can take issue with what’s posted on an essentially anomynous blog such as this. And it also works both ways; that is say, a number of those complaining about other posters are not without sin themselves. Banning people because they’re provocative, or don’t follow the majority line is anethema to free speech, which is obviously something not lost on the owner of this site.

    I don’t see how “free speech” comes into it. This is William’s blog, and we are all here on his sufferance. William has a perfect right to say “enough is enough” and ban posters if he doesn’t like the way the blog is going.

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