Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 41 of 62
1 40 41 42 62
  1. ‘poroti says:
    Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 11:40 am

    Boerwar

    Some seem to want to change an old quote to- ‘It’s better that 10 innocent men be wrongly convicted than one guilty man go free’
    .’

    Yep. I was fortunate because I HAD seen it coming. Otherwise all the usual little human slips would have been there and I would have been hung on process. I have seen THAT happen.

    That said, our system is inadequate to address issues relating to sex crimes and domestic violence. Women bear the brunt (but not all) of this.

    There ARE reforms that can redress this imbalance. These include being able to give evidence in camera or in a separate room. These include more judge intervention in cross examination styles. These include forbidding the alleged domestic violence perpetrator from cross examining the accuser.
    I would also like to see ankle band technology applied with ALL AVOs.

  2. So, Michael’s teachers were kiddie fiddlers, so Rush must be a dirty old man.

    Another compelling argument from perhaps PB’s simultaneously most naive and yet bigoted poster (if you don’t count Nicholas).

  3. Urban Wronski
    ‏17 minutes ago

    ScoMo milking AWM renovation – calls it the “soul of the nation. Sacred to us all. ”
    Yep. That’s why we permit multinational arms manufacturers to donate massively to it, Mr Morrison.

  4. Some seem to want to change an old quote to- ‘It’s better that 10 innocent men be wrongly convicted than one guilty man go free’

    No, it’s just some older males who believe that it’s better for older guys to have their sexual misconduct trivialized as horseplay or artistic expression than to have a safe society based on respect and consent.

  5. Michael A

    BW, it is clear we’re living in different worlds here. I cannot comprehend anyone equating the suffering undergone by someone falsely accused, with the tragedy of an entire life wrecked by an abuser.

    ________________________________________

    Well, I can. Humans are individual. Every human has a different response to trauma. Some people are born with the fortitude and mental health to overcome the impact of childhood abuse – they are not and should not be the norm. Equally, there are people who have been falsely accused and even convicted of crimes or conduct who can rise above their experience.

    The problem with your world view is that you have a hierarchy of badness relating to what one human can do to another. I don’t – I just look at the impact and whether the act of abuse (whether gratuitous false accusation or child molestation) was a serious one. PTSD in all its manifestations is a fact, not a reflection on the type of trauma experienced.

  6. The Coalition has gutted the National Gallery.
    It has gutted the National Library.
    It has gutted the National Museum.
    It has gutted BOM.
    Ir has gutted CSIRO.
    It has gutted the ABS.
    It has gutted the ATO.
    It has gutted our climate.
    It has gutted our biodiversity.
    It has gutted our water resources.
    It has gutted our forests.
    It has gutted the Reef.

    But the militarist war mongers can find half a billion for the AWM.

    Says it all, really.

  7. What is clear to me is that Rush had all the power in this situation and therefore had all the responsibility to make sure she was comfortable and felt secure. At the very least he failed to do that.

  8. bw

    I had become so inured to the environmental looting and destruction under the Coalition that the Labor initiatives are like rain breaking a drought.

    I hope the Liberals denounce the initiatives loudly. Over and over. There are many rusted on Liberals who love the natural environment and disgusted by what is happening. Mayo is full of them.

    Add that to the Murray Darling RC (due for reporting on 1 Feb 2019) and the Libs will are pushing it up hill in SA.

  9. Michael A:

    Without particularising them, you do have tendency to make specious claims. I’ve aways found that a little research is helpful, failing which maybe it’s time for you to pull out while you’re so far behind.

  10. ‘all the power’ ?

    Didn’t she have the ability to say, “I’m feeling a bit uncomfortable about this”?

    I’ve been sexually harassed, so I’m not underestimating the seriousness of it. But I am beginning to feel that some of the men who are standing up for the poor little women who can’t possibly do anything about the situation themselves are being a little patronising….

  11. Once again, Nicholas, the entire basis of your position is that Rush did something wrong, based, presumably, on the conflicted testimony of one single witness, and denied by all others.

    Your argument appears to be “We all know Rush is guilty, simply because someone I believe has accused him of something. Courts are just devices that the old, successful and rich use to make even more money, and to oppress the already downtrodden. So anyone who defends Rush is just another dirty old man defending sexual predation.”

    Very neat, that.

    Add in Michael’s “There are bad people around, so Rush is guilty,” and we have the perfect lynch mob.

  12. SK
    Yep. What sort of shocked me was how thoroughly inured I was to this endless background white noise of enviromental destruction.
    I had forgotten that things can be reversed.
    Mr Shorten has his faults.
    But failing to lead on the environment is not one of them.
    Here’s to Hope – something that has been drained out of me for five, long years.

  13. “”You, on the other hand, have decided that because Rush is famous he must be guilty.?””

    The fact he is a red blooded male with the opportunity to fondle a female body does ring a bell!.

  14. TPOF says:
    Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 11:50 am

    Humans are individual. Every human has a different response to trauma. Some people are born with the fortitude and mental health to overcome the impact of childhood abuse – they are not and should not be the norm. Equally, there are people who have been falsely accused and even convicted of crimes or conduct who can rise above their experience.

    The problem with your world view is that you have a hierarchy of badness relating to what one human can do to another. I don’t – I just look at the impact and whether the act of abuse (whether gratuitous false accusation or child molestation) was a serious one. PTSD in all its manifestations is a fact, not a reflection on the type of trauma experienced.
    —————————————

    THANK YOU! You have given me the perspective I needed to be able to reframe this discussion in a way that recognised the justice of everyone’s complaints about how the Tele treated Geoffrey Rush, while not losing my nut at the suspicion people care more about an accused’s reputation than about the experience of a victim. You broke that mental Gordian knot for me. Thank you.

  15. 1934pc
    The fact he is a red blooded male with the opportunity to fondle a female body does ring a bell!.
    _________________________________
    Especially when you are old and probably haven’t got any since the Hawke government, like a few on here I suspect.

  16. Ah. So Rush is guilty because he is rich, guilty because he is a male, and guilty because we know that people do bad things.

    Lock everyone up now. It seems to be the only way to avoid these problems.

  17. The other week I had the privilege of rewatching the classic movie On The Waterfront.

    In it there’s a scene where the character played by Marlon Brando forces himself upon Eve Marie Saint’s character to obtain a kiss.

    I remember thinking to myself that if that movie was made today, the public outcry that would’ve erupted over that scene would’ve prompted an immediate edit to cut that scene out.

    That prompted me to think of other “classic” movies that featured similar scenes.

    Off the top of my head I came up with every James Bond film with the possible exceptions of those starring Pierce Brosnan and Daniel Craig. Without going back to watch all of them, I have a memory of scenes within each where Bond grans the leading lady and forces a kiss on them. The ladies resist at firs, but such is the sexual power of Bond that has that each of them surrender after an initial struggle and eventually end up being bedded by Bond.

    These scenes too would never see the light of day if they were made recently.

    Can anyone else think of other movies which featured scenes such as these, where what is now considered inappropriate behaviour was portrayed as being acceptable?

  18. ‘Malcolm Turnbull

    Verified account

    @TurnbullMalcolm
    4m4 minutes ago
    More
    A few facts. @ScottMorrisonMP asked me to discuss trade and the embassy issue in Bali and we had a call before I left to confirm his messages which I duly relayed to @jokowi There was a detailed paper on the issue in my official brief as well.’

    This does not sound like a happy Malcolm.

  19. Aunt Mavis:
    Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 11:57 am
    —————————————

    Look, thanks for your concern. TPOF @11:50am actually provided the ‘eureka’ moment for me on this issue, for which I am grateful. It is quite clear I was triggered by the rush to be solicitous of Rush’s interests, and jumped in when it would have been better to stick with spectating on this one.

  20. I recall the mood in the last days of the Labor government in 2013. There was a palpable sense of inevitability, of fierce righteous energy and sense of impending victory. For me it felt unreal. I had been back in Australia for a little under 2 years. It was hard to understand the rush to Abbott. After the election when he crowed about adults finally being back in charge I turned my back on Australian politics. I couldn’t understand it. (And lucky for me I discovered this blog.)

    There is a similar feeling now. The focus is turning to the Labor opposition. Except for ridicule people are turning away from the coalition. Last night’s Mad As Hell was relentlessly harsh on the coalition. The news outlets are starting to inform us of Labor policies. What is different is that Shorten is no Abbott. Only the immature boast of being adult. To some degree I’ll accept my sense of things is biased, but there also seems no righteousness, just a sense of relief. Boerwar described it as a drought breaking. That feels about right.

  21. The people who are making excuses for sexual misconduct are saying:

    Young pretty females are inherently ditzy / star-struck / imagining things / pursuing a master plan to advance a career by upsetting people who control their career advancement (not sure how that works) / not to be believed

    Women’s bodies are public property

    Women’s bodies are canvasses upon which the great male artistes of the world pour their prodigious creative gifts

    It didn’t happen (because there is only a young woman saying that it happened) but even if it did happen it was harmless and part of the culture and she should have gotten with the program

  22. Boerwar (AnonBlock)
    Thursday, November 1st, 2018 – 11:52 am
    Comment #2008

    It has gutted ……………………………..

    But there are still a few Koalas, Platypus and them other whatsisnames* to go.

    *echidna.

    I’m off now to practice safe crossing of busy roads. 😎

  23. Dan Gulberry
    Can anyone else think of other movies which featured scenes such as these, where what is now considered inappropriate behaviour was portrayed as being acceptable?
    ____________________________
    Watching Mad Men I had a similar reaction. It is set in the Advertising business in NYC earlier 60s. Ass slapping, all sorts of innuendo. The secretaries were basically a herd whom the senior men attempted to prey upon.

  24. Here’s to Hope – something that has been drained out of me for five, long years.

    Not misplaced hope. I expect the ALP have learned how to insulate good policy like this from the ransacking of the Coalition – with assistance from sympathetic senate and house xbenchers.

  25. KJ

    While there are swings and roundabouts, Australia is providing a disproportionate contribution to the Anthropocene Extinction Event.

    Talking about roundabouts, the best way to avoid being run over is to drive a car.

  26. Nicholas

    No one is making excuses for sexual misconduct, so no one is saying any of that.

    If you can’t deal with the actual argument, don’t resort to verballing.

  27. Nicholas
    says:
    Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 12:11 pm
    The people who are making excuses for sexual misconduct are saying:
    Young pretty females are inherently ditzy / star-struck / imagining things / pursuing a master plan to advance a career by upsetting people who control their career advancement (not sure how that works) / not to be believed
    _________________________________
    BB was actually on here yesterday asserting that the woman made this stuff up so that her name could be ‘out there’. That was until he realised the details of the case and then altered his tune a little.

  28. I am not sure about the latest norms in movies, if any.
    There are many more instances of female characters who take the lead, one way or another.
    In terms of physical scenes, the most recent I saw was in ‘Custody’ where the domestic violence perp forces a hug on his estranged wife.
    I was close to walking out of that movie because I could hardly bear the intensity of emotions surrounding domestic violence.

  29. ‘lizzie says:
    Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 12:17 pm

    nath

    Very prejudiced against the mature aged, are you?’

    *laughs*
    You landed that one right between the hypocritical eyes.

  30. Dan,
    Well, I can readily point to decades of Hollywood movies, in its supposedly golden era, when the African Americans were restricted to step-and-fetch-it servant roles and other minorities were all but invisible.

  31. zoomster says:
    Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 12:14 pm
    Nicholas

    No one is making excuses for sexual misconduct, so no one is saying any of that.

    If you can’t deal with the actual argument, don’t resort to verballing.

    Hear! Hear!

  32. The last time BB or BW got any action it was probably the Whitlam era. You guys might as well use that appendage for extra help with the keyboard. 🙂

  33. DG,

    Early in Gold Finger there is a scene where Bond says to a female character WTTE “Run along now dear. Man talk.” and then slaps her on the arse. I wouldn’t be surprised if that gets cut from TV airings.

  34. nath:

    [‘Especially when you are old and probably haven’t got any since the Hawke government, like a few on here I suspect.’]

    I find your comment to be a tad ageist.


  35. zoomster says:
    Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 12:08 pm
    ‘Malcolm Turnbull

    Verified account

    @TurnbullMalcolm
    4m4 minutes ago
    More
    A few facts. @ScottMorrisonMP asked me to discuss trade and the embassy issue in Bali and we had a call before I left to confirm his messages which I duly relayed to @jokowi There was a detailed paper on the issue in my official brief as well.’

    This does not sound like a happy Malcolm.

    So MT is saying publicly that Morrison lied on Alan Jones show

  36. “This does not sound like a happy Malcolm.”

    Lol! Its turning into an example of ScoMo just not knowing when to STFU, keep his head down, and let things blow over. Hr really does not seem to have anything in the way of “diplomatic” skills.

    And Malcolm coming out with the assertion that :

    “There was a detailed paper on the issue in my official brief as well.’”

    Should ring some serious alarm bells for ScoMo. With that statement now in the wild, how long before that “official brief” gets leaked or is subject to an FOI request by a journo digging??

    Hmmmmm…….in fact, its the sort of thing that may get asked about as a question from the floor on mondays QANDA.

    There is just NO joy at all for the Libs in going at Malcolm, but their RWFW’s Light Brigade just cant seem to resist charging the gunline and grapeshot over an open field.

  37. Ray Sanderson, Ex Royal Australian Air Force officer
    ‏37 minutes ago

    Nelson has turned AWM into a corporation. I’ve been there many times since 1980s, last there about a year ago. It’s losing its sacredness.

  38. “So MT is saying publicly that Morrison lied on Alan Jones show”

    oohhh……isn’t offending Alan Jones one of the deadly sins in the RWFW lexicon?? 🙂

    Said it before, you couldn’t script this stuff if you we making a comedy about politically inept behavior. 🙂 And, more seriously, it all feeds in to just how poor the current PM’s judgement is and keeps the rolling omnishambles that is the Libs trucking along.

Comments Page 41 of 62
1 40 41 42 62

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *