Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Making shit up and levelling accusations without the slightest evidence or argument, even a hint of it, just a desire to be hurtful or to upset, is not “Free Speech”.

    It turns the blog into a very nasty place, with no upside either for the management or members.

    A lot of people have put up with a lot of shit from a certain small, malignant cadre, out simply to make life unpleasant for others.

    I personally don’t mind a little argey bargey, but there’s a line that should not be crossed, which WAS crossed earlier this evening.

  2. nath @ #2021 Thursday, November 1st, 2018 – 12:06 pm

    1934pc
    The fact he is a red blooded male with the opportunity to fondle a female body does ring a bell!.
    _________________________________
    Especially when you are old and probably haven’t got any since the Hawke government, like a few on here I suspect.

    Okay, this seems to be the offending comment. It’s clearly offensive but I also believe we should probably be able to just ignore obviously poor attempts at baiting such as this.

    The rest is up to you.

  3. Aunt Mavis says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 8:46 pm
    nath:

    You can’t knock the ’60s unless you lived through it; it was really groovy – the clothes, the music, the…?

    I was born at the end of the 60’s . Can just remember the end of the Vietnam War and parents outrage when Gough was sacked.

    Just watched a great doco on LBJ. If not for Vietnam would be truly one of the US Greatest Presidents. Surprising given the way he got there and his earlier racial convictions.

  4. So is that the comment where I am viciously attacking ‘dear lizzie’? Or is that you using her to try to get me banned when I directed nothing towards her.

    This was in the context of the Rush saga where I was taking Nicholas’ side against BB and the others.

  5. It’s true in the sense that I felt a cosmic appeal for me to return, but no, William did not appeal for my presence.

    Or, iow, just some more bs you made up and expected us to take as fact. You are a truly pathetic figure.

  6. C@tmomma
    says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 10:34 pm
    It’s true in the sense that I felt a cosmic appeal for me to return, but no, William did not appeal for my presence.
    Or, iow, just some more bs you made up and expected us to take as fact. You are a truly pathetic figure.
    __________________________
    I think you just proved you created a pile of bullshit but couldn’t back it up.

  7. Still looking at bludgertrack. I know it is super early, but QLD seems to be where the action is. 10 seats changing hands? The probabilities of the Coalition retaining these 10 seats, according to numbermancy, are:

    Prob% Division
    49% Brisbane
    16% Leichhardt
    12% Bonner
    12% Dawson
    4% Dickson
    3% Petrie
    2% Flynn
    1% Capricornia
    1% Forde

    The seat of Brisbane might be the one to watch. Also Dickson (Dutton) for anyone into schadenfreude.

  8. Thanks for the update, WB.

    Hola, bludgers. I’ve taken some time off posting as I’ve been recovering from a persistent illness and heart scare. Still kinda unresolved, which is… unsatisfying.

    Anyway, wtf has happened to this place over the last few days? Lots of virtue signaling, not a lot of reason. It looks just as bad as the Tumpians. Heads should be pulled in.

  9. Player One:

    [‘I don’t see how “free speech” comes into it. This is William’s blog, and we are all here on his sufferance. William has a perfect right to say “enough is enough” and ban posters if he doesn’t like the way the blog is going.’]

    If I were William I would want to see a variety of opinion, even if it goes against the prevailing view. Granted, some are more provocative than others, but calling for them to be banned on somewhat specious grounds, and moreover by those who often go over the top themselves, is not something that should be countenanced, free speech, within certain parameters, being the paramount concern.

    The Rush defamation action has hit a raw nerve with a number of posters, and some have reacted very aggressively, with both sides of the debate having been guilty of overplaying their hands. Regrettably, this will no doubt go on for some time given it’s likely to result in a fresh trial. One can only hope that the debate becomes a little more civil.

  10. And while I’m on this train, Ryan at 59.1% minus 6.7% (= 52.4%) does not, or can not, take into account Prentice running as an independent against the younger male replacement. Ryan might be a ‘little’ Wentworth.

    I hope she runs.

    I am itching…

  11. Also, this is what I said about Shorten’s first meeting with Murdoch as PM

    nath
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 7:31 pm
    At their first meeting Shorten will drop to his knees, kiss the ring. He will offer whatever Murdoch wants, including Chloe’s phone number, and then be dismissed like a starving waiter.

    This is what C@tmomma alleged I said

    C@tmomma
    Tuesday, October 23, 2018 at 7:21 pm

    So you think it’s funny to make a joke out of offering Chloe Shorten to Rupert Murdoch to suck his dick, in exchange for favourable treatment in his papers for Bill, do you?

  12. Late Riser:

    I’d love to see Julia Banks run as an independent too, but take her at her word when she says she is retiring from politics. Can totally understand her wanting to get out of the shit show that is the federal Liberal-National party.

  13. Thanks, Fess.

    One unforeseeable outcome is that I’ve had all the hair removed from my chest. Mrs U has complained about the thickening and greying forest there – “I didn’t sign up for that” – but the alternative is a bit stark!

  14. TPOF
    says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 11:00 pm
    Nath
    So what did you mean re Chloe’s phone number being offered?
    ____________________________
    Not offered, asked for by Rupert, because of his eye for the ladies, and that Bill would oblige because he seeks favour from Rupert.

    Look. I actually regret mentioning her name. But not because I said anything of the rubbish that C@tmomma alleges I said.

  15. One unforeseeable outcome is that I’ve had all the hair removed from my chest. Mrs U has complained about the thickening and greying forest there – “I didn’t sign up for that” – but the alternative is a bit stark!

    Well. I’m not sure what to say! 😆

  16. Late Riser:

    Yep. By all accounts Banks had a successful career in the corporate sector prior to entering politics. If I were her I’d be looking at the outdated Abbottobods in my party trying to gain power, as well as the unbelievably ridiculous alt right, white supremacist breeding ground apparently happening in the NSW Nats and going ‘Yeah, no. You mob can clean this shit up yourselves, I’m out.’

  17. Upnorth:

    [Just watched a great doco on LBJ. If not for Vietnam would be truly one of the US Greatest Presidents. Surprising given the way he got there and his earlier racial convictions.’]

    I was born in the ’40s and unfortunately did go to Vietnam four times, but didn’t see any real action as I was in the RAN at the time, but it did nevererless take its toll, bringing those poor diggers back to Oz on HMAS Sydney, broken young men.

    Funny you should mention the doco on LBJ. I’ve just watched it too on YouTube. I agree with your opinion that he could’ve been one of the great presidents, given his agenda of civil rights. Vietnam was his downfall and the stress from it most likely the reason for his premature death.

  18. aunt mavis

    no the rush issue was only one temporarily inflamed by nath – but its clear he is only interested in sexual sensitivities on one person in country who happens to be in court so no more baiting – happy to give out offense to anyone else which is bit odd seeing the issue is offense – then he compares rush and polanski – a comparison not to be dignified with further reply

    this trial wont drag on

  19. Peter is working hard but could use your help. If you can spare an hour or two to help Peter in Dickson, please join the team.

    I believe GetUp is planning a targetted campaign in Dutton’s seat next election. Bludgers can certainly do their bit to help on that front, as I intend doing if it comes off. 😀

  20. Aunt Mavis
    Funny you should mention the doco on LBJ. I’ve just watched it too on YouTube. I agree with your opinion that he could’ve been one of the great presidents, given his agenda of civil rights. Vietnam was his downfall and the stress from it most likely the reason for his premature death.
    _____________________________
    Mavis, get Robert Caro’s incredible biographies on LBJ. It’s a political education in itself.

  21. Aunt Mavis says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 11:08 pm
    Upnorth:

    [Just watched a great doco on LBJ. If not for Vietnam would be truly one of the US Greatest Presidents. Surprising given the way he got there and his earlier racial convictions.’]

    I was born in the ’40s and unfortunately did go to Vietnam four times, but didn’t see any real action as I was in the RAN at the time, but it did nevererless take its toll, bringing those poor diggers back to Oz on HMAS Sydney, broken young men.

    Funny you should mention the doco on LBJ. I’ve just watched it too on YouTube. I agree with your opinion that he could’ve been one of the great presidents, given his agenda of civil rights. Vietnam was his downfall and the stress from it most likely the reason for his premature death.

    If you have Netflix Ken Burns Vietnam War – Ken Burns as usual masterful self.

  22. briefly:

    FWIW a couple of anti-Trump Republican strategists have indicated the Republicans shifting to immigration is a boon for them. One even said if he didn’t know any better he’d be inclined to think Trump orchestrated the caravan thing himself precisely because it animates Republican voters.

  23. Nath is not merely a troll. He does fantasy-pimping, on replay, no less. This is one of the more misogynistic gestures I can recall seeing here. The troll may be trying to sledge Shorten. In fact, he’s objectified and traduced Chloe; turned her into the imagined prize in a sleazy game of pass the parcel.

    Very poor….very very poor.

  24. hungry jack:

    [‘no the rush issue was only one temporarily inflamed by nath…’]

    No, if you scroll back you’ll find a number of others giving their two bob’s worth, in no uncertain terms.

    [‘this trial wont drag on’]

    If the application by the defendant re. “Witness X’s” evidence is granted, it is likely to result in a fresh trial, as was reported on the ABC tonight. And here’s a link:

    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2018/nov/02/geoffrey-rush-trial-faces-long-delay-if-daily-telegraph-is-allowed-new-witness

  25. Upnorth:

    [‘If you have Netflix Ken Burns Vietnam War – Ken Burns as usual masterful self.’]

    I have Netflix and thanks for directing me to it.

  26. Fess…we’ll very soon see. The Republicans can only succeed if their turnout can be lifted. If it backfires, the Democrats will sweep the House and may yet pull off a surprise in the Senate.

    It’s very unusual to see a POTUS try to succeed by escalating division. Experience says it will fail…eventually.

  27. I have met Chloe Shorten a couple of times. She’s gracious, warm, articulate, funny and poised….unlike Nath, who is clearly a pail of sludge.

  28. UpNorth
    Verbally LBJ was probably no more racist than most of his colleagues. His actions from when he was young were pro-minority.
    You could line up Lincoln vs LBJ racist quotes and Lincoln would probably win.

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