Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Peg
    You missed a couple of great cut and paste opportunities.
    One was about some Greens candidate who seemed to have no real conceptual difficulty with being simultaneously a law maker and a law breaker.
    The other one was about a bunch of Greens who wanted to sack a Greens candidate because she missed her period. Or had a heart attack. Something like that.
    Anyway, it is never too late.
    Use BK’s links and you can educate us to your heart’s content .
    Don’t forget, big slabs of cut and paste will set you free.

  2. Guess who is on the turps Friday afternoon…..

    Barnaby Joyce says he was wrong to dismiss concerns of Nazism within the National Party just hours after likening an investigation into the matter to a McCarthyist witch hunt.

    “I take it all back,” Mr Joyce said.

    The former deputy prime minister earlier on Friday said he was skeptical of whether a neo-Nazi infiltration of the NSW Nationals had occurred. “Who is the Nazi? Who is it? … Sorry for my aggression but I am cynical of this shit,” Mr Joyce told AAP.

    “I’ve seen Prince Harry in a Nazi uniform, I’m pretty certain he’s not a Nazi. “I have an inherent cynicism because of a knowledge of how politics goes, right back to the McCarthyist witch hunts for the reds under the bed.” But within two hours, Mr Joyce said he’d made a call and agreed there was a problem.

    “These guys are crazy,” he said.

    “(They should) have no role in our party whatsoever.” Almost 20 NSW Nationals members have quit the party amid an investigation into their alleged connection to alt-right and white supremacist organisations. The NSW Nationals on Friday vowed to “not rest” until all suspected neo-Nazis were weeded out and passed a motion ruling membership with a host of alt-right organisations was incompatible with the party.

    Earlier in the day Mr Joyce said there had been a rise in factionalism within his party in recent years and the allegations of Nazism could just be a factional war.

    “Factions are a very poor replacement for policy,” he said.

    “The person on the left is apparently a communist or a socialist … and everyone on the right is a fascist.” However, MrJoyce said if it were proven any Nazi sympathisers were working within the party, he wanted them out.

    “If you know of a Nazi, give me the name and give me substantial evidence,” he said.

    “If someone has done something wrong, if they’ve broken the law, sure, if they were fair dinkum a member of the bloody NaziParty then you won’t have to wait for anyone else to get to them. I’m a former serving member of the defence force.” Mr Joyce said the scandal would almost certainly damage the Nationals in the looming state and federal elections.

    “This ain’t helping our electoral prospects.” “Any decision I make will be premised on real evidence and real names.” He later said no Nazis had ever made themselves known to him. “For the life of me, I’ve never met someone who presented them selves to me as a Nazi but maybe they thought it was a wise thing not to.” A dossier, seen by AAP, contains information about several party members and their links to the white supremacist or neo-Nazi movement, including screenshots of the alleged ring leader organising their memberships.

  3. G Sheridan is such a Trump groupy. You know he’s just saying it to get a rise cause anyone with half a brain cell would know better. Or maybe…..

  4. ‘Upnorth says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:55 pm

    Guess who is on the turps Friday afternoon…..

    Barnaby Joyce says he was wrong to dismiss concerns of Nazism within the National Party just hours after likening an investigation into the matter to a McCarthyist witch hunt.

    “I take it all back,” Mr Joyce said.’

    Well, that fixes that.

  5. Nicholas

    Just NO

    If erin had not wanted her day in the limelight she could have told the DT lawyers that she would not testify of would do so only as a hostile witness.

    The DT would have settled very, very very quickly.

    She must have reasoned that going through the public process would be in her best interests.

    I cannot think WHY since you can be certain that she will not get much theatre work in the future.

    This is for the obvious reason that most theatre work involves touching and embracing of some kind and I would think that most male stars would be inclined to say they will not work with her on any scenes where touching/kissing is involved. this will limit the scope of her roles at least while young.

    She will also be seen as two faced, because while she may well have resented Rush’s behaviour, she still used him as a referee AFTER the incident. Most male (and female actors) will want to keep their distance lest she turn on them at some later stage.

  6. ‘mikehilliard says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:57 pm

    G Sheridan is such a Trump groupy. You know he’s just saying it to get a rise cause anyone with half a brain cell would know better. Or maybe…..’

    I try to read all of what Sheridan writes in ‘The Australian’.

    IMO, there has been a somewhat uneven but nevertheless marked deterioration in the quality of his writing.

    IMO the person to whom he is now closest conceptually is Bolton and Bolton is what I call the genuine article: he would start a war with Iran tomorrow without hesitation and without compunction if he could figure out how to do it.

  7. Pegasus:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:21 pm
    —————————————

    Thanks for that! Whether or not anything personal was meant by my “detractors”, all this is just grist for my observational mill.

  8. ‘Michael A says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 7:01 pm

    Pegasus:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:21 pm
    —————————————

    Thanks for that! Whether or not anything personal was meant by my “detractors”, all this is just grist for my observational mill.’

    Narcissus eat your heart out.

  9. Pegasus says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:30 pm
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/more-nauru-children-moved-to-australia-as-fresh-bid-for-new-zealand-solution-rejected-20181102-p50dnr.html

    The Morrison government has dismissed a fresh bid by a Senate crossbencher to resettle refugees in New Zealand, but continues to transfer children from Nauru to Australia, with two more families leaving on Friday.

    There are now only 35 refugee children on Nauru, with more expected to leave in coming days. Fifty minors have come to Australia since October 15 – partly as a result of Federal Court orders – and the government has signalled a desire to “quietly” get all children off the island by Christmas.

    Except that Dutton has said he will subsequently toss them out of Australia.

  10. I have hesitated to comment on the Geoffrey Rush matter given the massive intellectual horsepower deployed by both sides of the debate on this blog.

    However, I must say the most persuasive fact to me is that Rush decided to sue for defamation in the first place. I’m sure he would have been advised of the likely drama (which has duly come to pass) but he chose to go ahead instead.

    To me that is the action of a person VERY sure of their position.

    If he thought there was any ambiguity about the end point of the process, he could have hired a publicist to help him dismiss it all as professional jealousies and the depraved nature of the Daily Telegraph (not hard to do) and it would all have been over in a few news cycles.

    I admire his determination to use the situation as a way of ripping a chunk out of the Murdoch cesspool.

  11. Pegasus @ #2824 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 6:21 pm

    Michael A

    I see you are getting ‘the treatment’ from the entrenched PB cabal.

    Welcome to PB.

    I hope you persist posting and pushing back in the measured way you have shown up til now.

    The agenda from your detractors is to continue hammering away at you until you either just give up and depart, and/or frustrate you to the point where you ‘blow up’.

    Don’t give them the satisfaction.

    I see Miss Prissy has swung by.

  12. Boerwar says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:43 pm
    ‘Michael A says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:27 pm

    Boerwar:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:14 pm
    ————————————-

    I appreciate the benevolence of your intentions. Really, I do. But I really have found this an enlightening exercise, observing how a “circling of the wagons” effect works when someone rattles a cage so many have felt entitled to feel so comfortable in for so long.’

    You are an ageist, sexist, and racist lynch mob and you have deluded yourself into thinking that you are rattling cages.

    —————————————

    Do you really want to make my own point for me so easily?

  13. mikehilliard

    Sheridan is a Neocon fanboi. If whatever some idiot does is OK for the PNACs and AIPACs of the world then Greg will declare it marvelous. Come to think of it pretty much anything Rupes would approve of Greg would approve.

  14. ajm
    Should a settlement happen, would it include considerations such as fear and suffering as a direct result of any rabid, ageist, racist and sexist social media lynch mob attacks?

  15. Except that Dutton has said he will subsequently toss them out of Australia.

    Yep, Pegasus always leaves out the bits of the story that don’t suit her narrative.

  16. If we keep up a diverse range of views on here we can finish the cabal’s days in power and bring about an end to the C@tocracy and the nasty attacks of her spear carriers!

    One day at a time.

  17. Trump must be wishing these people could move faster to arrive before the election:

    The President even said that the US troops he plans to dispatch to the border to address what he claims is a national crisis could turn their guns on members of a migrant group — currently hundreds of miles away in Mexico — if they threw rocks at the troops.

    “Democrats want open borders and want to invite caravan after caravan into our country,” Trump told the euphoric, fired-up crowd, which lapped up his fiery rhetoric on immigration and chanted “Build that wall! Build that wall!” in a display of the potency of the issue among the President’s base.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/02/politics/donald-trump-immigration-midterms-missouri/index.html

  18. Boerwar
    says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 7:10 pm
    MA
    Ah, so you ARE aware that calling some one an old white man in a pejorative context is ageist, racist and sexist.
    __________________________
    Poor Boerwar sounds like he would vote for Hanson’s motion

  19. c
    Let’s hope that there are some books to burn and some windows to break when the Trumpshirts and the TrumpWaffen reach the Rio Grande.
    Perhaps the caravanserai members could be given gold stars or something like that so that everyone knows who they are?

  20. The most amusing thing about the Daily Telegraph Vs Rush court case is that after decades of raging against “political correctness gone mad”, the Daily Terror’s defence is that Rush “crimes” are so shocking that he deserved their treatment of him.
    Yes, he probably did what his accuser said but is it a hanging offense? Surely there degrees of offenses; Is there not?

  21. Sprocket is one of C@tmomma’s chief lieutenants. His specialty, short ripostes endlessly repeated. He is always loyal to his C@tmomma and she rewards him with chew toys occasionally.

  22. Reading a few hours worth of comments on the way home from work and three themes come to mind.

    Is it possible that both the following are consistent/true: Geoffrey Rush is a sleazoid but the Telegraph article is nonetheless defamatory for suggesting he is a predator/pervert?

    With which leader will the ALP achieve an actual 54 2PP in the next federal election (a) Shorten, (b) Albanese, (c) Whitlam, (d) Obama, (e) Bradman, (f) Jesus or (g) none of the above? [Hint – the answer is g]

    I went to school with one S.Ho and one day we speculated around good names for his children… most popular were Tally, Ivan and Westward… this earmarks my age as if we were milennials then suggestions such as Jai and Skanky would no doubt have been up there

  23. To me that is the action of a person VERY sure of their position.

    It is the action of a wealthy person for whom the cost of a defamation action is pocket change. He decided that he may as well take a punt, given that defamation laws in Australia are absurdly pro-plaintiff.

    His miscalculation is his failure to recognize that his reputation will suffer more harm as a result of the increased detail and exposure that have been added to the initially very vague report about his misconduct.

    He has overreached and he will pay a heavy price, even if gets a few hundred thousand dollars out of this defamation action under our badly designed defamation laws.

  24. ajm @ 7.04pm,
    I absolutely agree that Geoffrey Rush would have clearly realised what he would be up against by choosing to sue an organ of the Murdoch Empire in Australia for Defamation and that he would have had the conversation with his friends and family about the possibility of success with the case. Also with a solicitor, initially, and then his barrister. From legal cases I’ve been involved in, which thankfully aren’t many, I know that the barrister quizzes you as hard as they quiz the witnesses in court, before you even get there. So I’m sure Rush went through this as well.

    Plus, I know he’s an actor but every day on his way into court he hasn’t seemed to have a care in the world as he went to face his Armageddon.

    Of course, I must add an *

    * what would I know!?! 🙂

  25. I’ve not studied the evidence of the Rush trial at all, let alone closely, but based on what I have seen there is a growing appearance of the Oscar Wildes about it.


  26. ajm says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 7:04 pm
    …..

    To me that is the action of a person VERY sure of their position.
    …..
    I admire his determination to use the situation as a way of ripping a chunk out of the Murdoch cesspool.

    I await with interest the judge’s view. For the rest the scroll wheel is pretty handy.
    What I can’t understand is why they bother, positions are known, no-ones view is going to be changed.

  27. Major infrastructure projects require the hiring of highly skilled people. This involves the federal government potentially competing with the private sector at market prices. This can be inflationary.

    I am talking about a Job Guarantee that hires off the bottom. That pays people a minimum wage to do jobs that their local community considers socially useful and environmentally sustainable. There is no shortage of such jobs in the domains of social and community services, environmental services, artistic and cultural services, and small-small infrastructure works (such as installing playground equipment).

    A Job Guarantee would not compete with the private sector or the regular public sector. It would do socially useful and environmentally useful tasks that those other sectors are currently not doing.

    If a community decides that a JG job deserves to be made part of the regular public sector, the federal government can fund the creation of this regular public sector job.

    A JG can widen our society’s imagination of what counts as a paid job. The focus of a JG would be social value and environmental sustainability, not commercial profitability.

    Commercially profitable jobs can be provided by the private sector.

    There is a massive amount of work that is socially useful but will never be commercially profitable. A currency-issuing government that floats its currency in foreign exchange markets can always employ unused resources (including labour) to do such things.

    The Australian Government is not constrained financially when it buys things that are for sale in Australian dollars. It is constrained only by the availability of real things that are for sale in Australian dollars. By definition, unemployed people are a resource that is available for sale in Australian dollars. The private sector doesn’t want them. Therefore it is not inflationary for the federal government to employ them at the minimum wage.

    A JG sets a floor of wages and conditions below which no job-seeker can fall.

    This would result in all employers in the private, not for profit, and regular public sectors having to lift their game in order to attract workers. Employers would have to create meaningful and interesting jobs and provide supportive workplaces and healthy work / life balance in order to attract workers. This would be an excellent development.

    A labour market works best when employers are falling over themselves to get workers.

    An economy in which there is more than one suitable job vacancy for every job-seeker is the most productive and healthy economy.

  28. WWP
    “I’ve not studied the evidence of the Rush trial at all, let alone closely, but based on what I have seen there is a growing appearance of the Oscar Wildes about it.”
    Or Alger Hiss.
    And now there is a witness X who might give evidence against Rush. An 85 page statement the DT are trying to get into evidence. What a mess.

  29. Nicholas @ #2810 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 6:01 pm

    The evidence led from Eryn Jean Norvill during the hearing alleges that he once carried out a silly movement of his hands above her, while she was ‘dead’ in front of him, with her eyes shut, during rehearsal.

    Mark Winter, a colleague who was there, has testified in court that he saw this happen.

    Your eagerness to dismiss Eryn’s account and to whitewash the disgraceful behaviour of a much more powerful person is disgraceful.

    You really don’t get it, do you, Nicholas. I have not expressed any opinion whatsoever about the truth or otherwise of what Eryn Jean Norvill or Geoffrey Rush have said. I simply reported that six of the cast, plus the director and the stage manager have said that that particular scenario did not happen. I did not know that Winter said it did. Who to believe? How in hell would I know. What I am pointing out is that there is no such thing as absolute ‘truth’ in any person’s memories or recollections, ever, and that your didactic nasty statements that Geoffrey Rush exhibited ‘disgraceful behaviour’ have no basis at all that you could possibly know about. As I said, you need to get a life.

    It is nice, of course, that you and Eryn are on first name terms, although I understand that all of her friends call her EJ.

    IMHO it is also patently obvious that The Daily Telegraph published vile unsourced defamatory material.

  30. ‘B.S. Fairman says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 7:20 pm

    The most amusing thing about the Daily Telegraph Vs Rush court case is that after decades of raging against “political correctness gone mad”, the Daily Terror’s defence is that Rush “crimes” are so shocking that he deserved their treatment of him.
    Yes, he probably did what his accuser said but is it a hanging offense? Surely there degrees of offenses; Is there not?’

    Which ‘accuser’ are you talking about? There are at least four official ones, not counting sundry self-appointed righteous lynch mobs. These, of course, include ageist, sexist and racist people who know that when it involves old white men then no process is necessary. If Rush sinks he is guilty. If he floats he is guilty and needs some rocks tied to him before he gets chucked back into the pond.
    Slam dunk.
    Rush’s career destroyed. Costs to to the Tele. Murdoch the darling of the #metoo mob. Meh.

    Perhaps the Tele’s eleventh hour mystery witness will deliver a Young Endeavour-like demonstration of rational consistency so far somewhat lacking among the finger pointers.

    But then again, we are only getting a smidge of the Court’s doings and doubtless it is best to leave it to the Judge.

  31. it is also patently obvious that The Daily Telegraph published vile unsourced defamatory material.

    The material isn’t unsourced. Eryn has testified under oath and so has Mark.

    Geoffrey thought he could bluff his way through this. Under our insane defamation laws he could still win a few hundred thousand dollars, but he has done much more damage to his reputation than if he had apologized at the outset and acknowledged how out of touch he was with contemporary social norms.

  32. ‘Diogenes says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 7:42 pm

    WWP
    “I’ve not studied the evidence of the Rush trial at all, let alone closely, but based on what I have seen there is a growing appearance of the Oscar Wildes about it.”
    Or Alger Hiss.
    And now there is a witness X who might give evidence against Rush. An 85 page statement the DT are trying to get into evidence. What a mess.’

    ‘What a mess’ is about right, IMO. Everyone (except the legal profession) is a loser, whatever happens from here on in.

  33. Nicholas everyone knows you view; it might come as a shock to you but the court probable doesn’t, probable never will and definitely does not care.

  34. ‘Nicholas

    Gladys thought she could bluff her way through this. Under our insane defamation laws she could still win a few hundred thousand dollars, but she has done much more damage to her reputation than if she had apologized at the outset and acknowledged how out of touch she was with contemporary social norms.’

    Slam dunk. Glady is a guilty goner either way in your lynch mob world even if nothing happened. But really, Gladys should have reduced her righteous punishment by apologizing for something that she says never happened.

    Perhaps your social norms that generate automatic pre-judged guilt need a touch up?

  35. Good grief, why are people still banging on about Rush vs. the Telecrap rubbish?
    Why no discussion on the forthcoming Vic. State election? Implications for the Fed. election

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