Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Bushfire

    I have noticed over the years that whenever you’re legendary wisdom is questioned, you become quiteresentful.

    Today those with opposing views are puritans and idiots.

    You write some fine pieces, but you are just as capable of misconstruing circumstances and producing bullshit.

    FYI, grooming has nothing to do with age. It has to do with power. A 60 year old life experienced, important, hail-fellow-well-met man can certainly be seen to groom a 25 year old young lady.

    Your argument reeks of “she shoulda known better”.

    If you are so bold as to say that it is not eminently easy for a world famous actor dors not have power and influence over an aspiring young actor, then you should stay out of commentary about sexual assault matters.

    Your old white man prejudices are well on display in every post you have submitted about this matter.

    Who knows what the result will be, but one thing I am sure of is that if Rush beats the Telly it will be for none of the reasons you have put up.

  2. W
    Does that mean that the STC might be sued in either of two circumstances:
    1. It was negligent in not guarding Norvill’s privacy.
    2. It, or its agent, released the information deliberately.

  3. There’s no way Labor can give him their preferences now!

    Yep, burn him.

    Then let Robbie know that if he wants to move to the Fed sphere there’s prefs available, but they come at a price.

  4. Nicholas, repeating your own post does not make it any more true.

    Geffrey Rush did not know anything about Eryn Jean Norvill’s discomfiture until the Daily Telegraph published an extended diatribe against him. The articles contained numerous allegations, including his allegedly following her into a toilet, making nasty remarks, and refusing to leave, plus the stuff about putting his hands in places which she found uncomfortable. She has vehemently denied ever saying that many of the Tele’s alleged situations ever occurred.

    The evidence led from Eryn Jean Norvill during the hearing alleges that he once carried out a silly movement of his hands above her, while she was ‘dead’ in front of him, with her eyes shut, during rehearsal. The director, and all of the other members of the cast who have been called have no recollection of this. She also stated that on two occasions he had put his hand where she felt he shouldn’t, and that he had pulled funny faces, and poked his tongue out, but that she didn’t say anything to him about any of it. I have left it to the ladies who comment here to decide whether these actions comprise sexual harrassment.

    The man who wrote the stories has not been called. He is The Tele’s lead gossip columnist. As I reported here earlier, in the last few weeks he has bravely described his problems with mental illness, a suicide attempt, ongoing depression and borderline personality disorder in an extended article in the Telegraph during Mental Health week.

    There are many intertwined strands to this unhappy sequence of events. If you, Nicholas, believe that Geoffrey Rush should have left an accusation (that he is the sort of ‘dirty old man’ who follows young women into toilets, and refuses to leave), just sitting there, quietly apologised for he knew not what, and just left Murdoch’s minions to gloat over his utterly shattered career, then I am truly sorry for you.

    Human interactions are complex, and literally impossible to generalise about. You spend too much time staring at a computer screen, and typing away displaying your naivety and lack of experience of the real, complicated world. Get out more, please. Talk to people, and ease back on the facile, know-all prejudice.

  5. BW:

    It hits him in the didactic lobe of his brain.

    Or:

    takes [him] disappearin’ through the smoke rings of [his] mind, as the Nobel Laureate might put it.

  6. @Boer

    “Everything will be fixed by the MMT, the UBI, the UJG, the Pipple’s Bank, Getting Rid of Our Armed Forces altogether, stopping use of GMOs altogether, and closing down all mining, transportation and export of uranium, including Olympic Dam which constitutes somewhere between 5-10% of SA’s GDP. Coal ditto.
    The resultant capital strike and flight void will be filled by click money.
    There will always be zero per cent interest rates and zero per cent inflation rates.
    You know this makes sense.
    Vote 1 Greens.”

    I think I’ve found the campaign anthem:
    https://youtu.be/rhVCH0UO9cg

  7. [Boerwar says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 5:50 pm
    W
    Does that mean that the STC might be sued in either of two circumstances:
    1. It was negligent in not guarding Norvill’s privacy.
    2. It, or its agent, released the information deliberately.]

    Yes. The operative words are “might be sued”. I would not put so high as to say “can be sued”. Though if it could be proved the STC deliberately leaked it would be a compelling case.

  8. The evidence led from Eryn Jean Norvill during the hearing alleges that he once carried out a silly movement of his hands above her, while she was ‘dead’ in front of him, with her eyes shut, during rehearsal.

    Mark Winter, a colleague who was there, has testified in court that he saw this happen.

    Your eagerness to dismiss Eryn’s account and to whitewash the disgraceful behaviour of a much more powerful person is disgraceful.

  9. Boerwar says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 5:33 pm
    Michael A
    Of course you have every right to make a fool of yourself.
    You have exercised that right for hundreds of tedious posts day after day after day.
    Every attempt by numerous posters to get you to wake up to yourself has, to date, failed miserably.
    —————————————

    What I find curious is why, if my posts are so tedious, they have inspired such a frenzied reaction? I was unaware that this blog was here to provide therapeutic interventions to those going astray in their thoughts. If people here thought I was just off in la-la land, they would surely have just quietly scrolled past my drivel to focus on what was useful to them. I am now very curious as to why so many people here have been so anxious to set me straight in my presumptuous condemnations of defamation law and the treatment of sexual abuse victims.

  10. I am now very curious as to why so many people here have been so anxious to set me straight in my presumptuous condemnations of defamation law and the treatment of sexual abuse victims.

    They live in a tribally based bubble and they hate to have their illusions burst.

  11. ‘Windhover says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 5:55 pm

    BW:

    It hits him in the didactic lobe of his brain.

    Or:

    takes [him] disappearin’ through the smoke rings of [his] mind, as the Nobel Laureate might put it.’

    *hurts self laughing*

  12. I watch The Drum and saw Father Rod (the potential senator) for the first time in the flesh, so to speak.
    He’s genuine. I hope he survives politics.

  13. ‘Michael A says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:06 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 5:33 pm
    Michael A
    Of course you have every right to make a fool of yourself.
    You have exercised that right for hundreds of tedious posts day after day after day.
    Every attempt by numerous posters to get you to wake up to yourself has, to date, failed miserably.
    —————————————

    What I find curious is why, if my posts are so tedious, they have inspired such a frenzied reaction?’

    Think of yourself as a dog drowning after you fell down a crack in the frozen lake.
    We did our best.

  14. fulvio sammut:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:13 pm
    ————————————-

    Well, a lot of the established gentlemen of this august blog have expended a lot of effort desperately hyperventilating that view!

  15. Ah, now I get it.
    Nicholas is projecting from his tribal bubble.
    He just knows that in his bubble it is OK to insult all old men, all white men and worse, still, all old white men.
    The fact that exactly the same ‘intellectual’ big-word behaviour towards insulting all young women or all white women, or even all young white women would be anathma.

  16. Mike:
    [Michael A says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:06 pm

    What I find curious is why, if my posts are so tedious, they have inspired such a frenzied reaction?]

    I doubt it.

    [If people here thought I was just off in la-la land, they would surely have just quietly scrolled past my drivel to focus on what was useful to them.]

    How do you know how many ‘people here” do quietly scroll past your drivel for the stated reason?

    How can those of us who have replied negatively to your posts give you affirmation?

    [I am now very curious as to why so many people here have been so anxious to set me straight in my presumptuous condemnations of defamation law and the treatment of sexual abuse victims.]

    You are not curious as to that matter and I, for one, have scrolled straight past any part of your posts that might be described as “presumptuous condemnations of defamation law and the treatment of sexual abuse victims.

    But I can give you credit for some insight. I do scroll past that aspect of your posts for the reason you suppose.

  17. ‘Nicholas says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:01 pm

    The evidence led from Eryn Jean Norvill during the hearing alleges that he once carried out a silly movement of his hands above her, while she was ‘dead’ in front of him, with her eyes shut, during rehearsal.

    Mark Winter, a colleague who was there, has testified in court that he saw this happen.

    Your eagerness to dismiss Eryn’s account and to whitewash the disgraceful behaviour of a much more powerful person is disgraceful.’

    Sorry, pal. Stick to your knitting. You lynch mobs don’t do evidence.

  18. Nicholas

    Quite right.

    Power is the sine qua non of sexual assault.

    Anyone who fails to understand the Rush V Norvill power differential and writes as if it did not exist is wilfully blind to it.

    Rush might well win but there is one thing for sure, regardless of the outcome, Rush is and was the heavyweight and the young lady is and was the lightweight regarding the alleged actual event.

    As to the actual case, both parties are heavyweights and I couldn’t care less if the tabloid loses.

  19. Tim Soutphommasane

    Verified account
    @timsout
    2h

    While on racism, let’s remember we have two hate preachers of the far-right — Gavin McInnes and Tommy Robinson — with planned tours of Australia. These agitators of racism are of dubious character and pose a danger to the community. Violent extremists should be declined visas

    Peter Dutton thinks that refugees are far more dangerous.

  20. Michael A

    I see you are getting ‘the treatment’ from the entrenched PB cabal.

    Welcome to PB.

    I hope you persist posting and pushing back in the measured way you have shown up til now.

    The agenda from your detractors is to continue hammering away at you until you either just give up and depart, and/or frustrate you to the point where you ‘blow up’.

    Don’t give them the satisfaction.

  21. Or, you and Nicholas could be full of it.

    I doubt that. Michael and I have a degree of intellectual rigour and breadth of perspective that you can only dream of.

    You are deeply ensconced in a narrow partisan view of this dispute between Geoffrey Rush and the Daily Telegraph.

    Your antipathy towards the Daily Telegraph (which I share) blinds you to the larger questions at stake.

    Namely, why would a relatively obscure actress lie under oath in a manner that will upset people who can control her future career options? Particularly given that she asked her employer to address the issue in a low key manner with a view to the FUTURE (not with a view to getting compensation for her own mistreatment), and that it is Geoffrey Rush who has amplified the publicity by bringing this bogus defamation action?

    Geoffrey Rush has a much greater incentive to lie.

    He is also, by virtue of his advanced age and high level of prestige, at a much higher risk of being delusional and out of touch about socially acceptable behaviour.

    The most reasonable view to take on this matter is that Eryn Norvill is telling the truth and Geoffrey Rush is:

    1. lying through his teeth; or
    2. too delusional to understand that what he did is socially unacceptable; or
    4. a zealous method actor who blacked out and does not remember groping and stroking his way into character

  22. Boerwar @ #2819 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 6:18 pm

    ‘Nicholas says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:01 pm

    The evidence led from Eryn Jean Norvill during the hearing alleges that he once carried out a silly movement of his hands above her, while she was ‘dead’ in front of him, with her eyes shut, during rehearsal.

    Mark Winter, a colleague who was there, has testified in court that he saw this happen.

    Your eagerness to dismiss Eryn’s account and to whitewash the disgraceful behaviour of a much more powerful person is disgraceful.’

    Sorry, pal. Stick to your knitting. You lynch mobs don’t do evidence.

    A very nasty post. A sign of defeat.

  23. Well, Michael, as an otherwise contemplative poster, you might wish to consider the possibility, remote as it may be, that your legion of detractors on this issue might be right, and you and Nicholas are wrong.

    However that may be, consider any criticism to be extended in the Pickwickian sense, with no personal malice intended.

  24. More Popcorn 😀

    Rob Oakeshott
    ‏ @RobOakeshott1
    33s33 seconds ago

    Rob Oakeshott Retweeted Tom Rabe

    The National Party now keen to fight an election on themselves, and whether Nazism is in the party or not. Apparently.

  25. Boerwar:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:14 pm
    ————————————-

    I appreciate the benevolence of your intentions. Really, I do. But I really have found this an enlightening exercise, observing how a “circling of the wagons” effect works when someone rattles a cage so many have felt entitled to feel so comfortable in for so long.

  26. The agenda from your detractors is to continue hammering away at you until you either just give up and depart, and/or frustrate you to the point where you ‘blow up’. Don’t give them the satisfaction.

    Indeed Peg. The key is to have your say, maybe have your say a few times. But then walk away and dont look back in anger.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8OipmKFDeM

  27. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/more-nauru-children-moved-to-australia-as-fresh-bid-for-new-zealand-solution-rejected-20181102-p50dnr.html

    The Morrison government has dismissed a fresh bid by a Senate crossbencher to resettle refugees in New Zealand, but continues to transfer children from Nauru to Australia, with two more families leaving on Friday.

    There are now only 35 refugee children on Nauru, with more expected to leave in coming days. Fifty minors have come to Australia since October 15 – partly as a result of Federal Court orders – and the government has signalled a desire to “quietly” get all children off the island by Christmas.

  28. Nicholas @ #2824 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    Or, you and Nicholas could be full of it.

    I doubt that. Michael and I have a degree of intellectual rigour and breadth of perspective that you can only dream of.

    You are deeply ensconced in a narrow partisan view of this dispute between Geoffrey Rush and the Daily Telegraph.

    Your antipathy towards the Daily Telegraph (which I share) blinds you to the larger questions at stake.

    Namely, why would a relatively obscure actress lie under oath in a manner that will upset people who can control her future career options? Particularly given that she asked her employer to address the issue in a low key manner with a view to the FUTURE (not with a view to getting compensation for her own mistreatment), and that it is Geoffrey Rush who has amplified the publicity by bringing this bogus defamation action?

    Geoffrey Rush has a much greater incentive to lie.

    He is also, by virtue of his advanced age and high level of prestige, at a much higher risk of being delusional and out of touch about socially acceptable behaviour.

    The most reasonable view to take on this matter is that Eryn Norvill is telling the truth and Geoffrey Rush is:

    1. lying through his teeth; or
    2. too delusional to understand that what he did is socially unacceptable; or
    4. a zealous method actor who blacked out and does not remember groping and stroking his way into character

    Reasonable and logical.

  29. Pegasus @ #2834 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 6:30 pm

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/more-nauru-children-moved-to-australia-as-fresh-bid-for-new-zealand-solution-rejected-20181102-p50dnr.html

    The Morrison government has dismissed a fresh bid by a Senate crossbencher to resettle refugees in New Zealand, but continues to transfer children from Nauru to Australia, with two more families leaving on Friday.

    There are now only 35 refugee children on Nauru, with more expected to leave in coming days. Fifty minors have come to Australia since October 15 – partly as a result of Federal Court orders – and the government has signalled a desire to “quietly” get all children off the island by Christmas.

    Only an increase in like-minded Independent mp’s will restore humanity to our polity.

  30. Simon² Katich® @ #2833 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    The agenda from your detractors is to continue hammering away at you until you either just give up and depart, and/or frustrate you to the point where you ‘blow up’. Don’t give them the satisfaction.

    Indeed Peg. The key is to have your say, maybe have your say a few times. But then walk away and dont look back in anger.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8OipmKFDeM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVw7fzIP6cQ

  31. Reasonable and logical.

    Thanks Rex!

    I really believe that Eryn Norville’s detractors are far too focused on the Daily Telegraph. They are determined to stick it to the Daily Telegraph. I get that. I don’t like the Daily Telegraph either. But these folks aren’t thinking reasonably about who, out of Eryn and Geoffrey, is more likely to lie or make delusional statements under oath.

    To me, it is a slam dunk. Geoffrey is far more likely to be lying or to be making delusional statements.

    Eryn didn’t want to make a big deal out of it. She wasn’t punitive. She just wanted the Sydney Theatre Company to improve its workplace processes so that other actors would not face the same harassment that she did.

    She only detailed her experience in court because the egotistical Rush brought a defamation action against the Daily Telegraph.

    Mark Winter has corroborated part of her account.

    Some of her account had no third party witnesses (but she has no incentive to lie about those experiences).

    If the publication had been New Matilda, Crikey, or The Saturday Paper, I guarantee you that no Labor partisan at Poll Bludger would be taking Geoffrey Rush’s side on this.

    This is all about Labor partisans wanting to stick it to the Daily Telegraph. To them, Eryn Norvill is mere collateral damage.

    This is sad.

  32. Former prime minister Tony Abbott was greeted with a traditional welcome by the Anangu people when he arrived in Pukatja, one of South Australia’s most remote Aboriginal communities.
    It was the last stop on a three-day visit to the state as part of his new role as special envoy for Indigenous affairs.

    He shook hands, stopped by classroom and spoke with students then made a tactless remark.

    “Thank you for putting up with the invasion,” he said.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/nitv-news/article/2018/11/02/tony-abbott-says-thank-you-putting-invasion

  33. ‘Michael A says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:27 pm

    Boerwar:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:14 pm
    ————————————-

    I appreciate the benevolence of your intentions. Really, I do. But I really have found this an enlightening exercise, observing how a “circling of the wagons” effect works when someone rattles a cage so many have felt entitled to feel so comfortable in for so long.’

    You are an ageist, sexist, and racist lynch mob and you have deluded yourself into thinking that you are rattling cages.

  34. Alex Bainbridge, national co-convenor of Socialist Alliance on the myth of the ‘sensible centre’:

    https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/myth-sensible-centre

    In the wake of the Wentworth byelection and the debate about its meaning a lot of commentary has focused on the desire for a return to the “sensible centre”.
    ::::
    First, the “centre” is meaningless when choices have to be made. Where is the centre between supporting and opposing the Adani mega coalmine? What is a “moderate” position on abortion rights? What “compromise” can be made between supporting and opposing the right to strike?

    Secondly, today we live in a world in crisis, which is increasingly polarised between the haves and have-nots.
    ::::
    Only a resolute and uncompromising left wing that champions human rights and the environment over profiteering at all costs can hope to find lasting solutions.

    There is absolutely nothing “sensible” about being in the centre. Today’s world demands we take sides.

  35. Re preferencing Katter, since Katter booted Anning, Labor should make a pragmatic decision. He’s keeping a National out of Parliament, which can only be good.

  36. Apparently nobody wants to post more dog photos.
    So:-
    Courtesy of my favourite daughter who tells me that the dogs love being dressed, no matter what I say, so —-

  37. lizzie
    “Thank you for putting up with the invasion,” he said.
    The only real difference between the two rotten apples is that Rudd is intelligent.
    One of my would-be killers was speared not all that far from Pukatja.
    Leg job. He broke the Law.
    Same mob, actually.

  38. ‘Nicholas says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 6:41 p

    To me, it is a slam dunk. ‘

    It always is for lynch mobs. They lynched thousands of blacks in the south after the turn of the century. There was absolutely no need for court processes because the lynch mobs knew from the get go that the blacks were guilty.

    Think of it as a slam dunk.

  39. Boerwar @ #2845 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 6:48 pm

    lizzie
    “Thank you for putting up with the invasion,” he said.
    The only real difference between the two rotten apples is that Rudd is intelligent.
    One of my would-be killers was speared not all that far from Pukatja.
    Leg job. He broke the Law.
    Same mob, actually.

    Rudd was so intelligent he tore down a progressive Govt and escorted Abbott into the Lodge.

  40. Tom Osborn FRSA
    ↙️
    ‏@call_me_tomasso

    Holy Shit! Nikki Haley’s replacement: “State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert citing the Allied landings in Normandy as an example of close US ties with Germany.”

  41. Jack the Insider on writers and actors.
    .
    .
    Writers are a horrendous bunch
    NOVEMBER 02, 2018

    ………………When introduced to actors — “She/he is in the theatre, don’t you know?”— and if sufficiently oiled, I clasp their hands and tell them, “The Theatre? Is that still around? Wonderful. I would have thought colour television would have seen it off. Good on you. That’s the spirit. Never give up.”

    It seems to keep them at bay.

    https://outline.com/gFudFt

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