No Newspoll this week, which is holding back for the resumption of parliament next week. However, we do have a new Victorian state poll out from ReachTEL, which you can read about in the post directly below this one, along with an update of my poll aggregation from the state. The Guardian should bring us results from Essential Research’s regular fortnightly federal poll overnight tomorrow. Also on the polling front:
• The Fairfax papers have reported state breakdowns aggregated from the last three monthly Ipsos polls, which mix one poll from before the leadership coup, one from the immediate lead-up to it, and one from a month after. This shows Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 in the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged), 52-48 in Queensland (unchanged) and 51-49 in Western Australia (an unusual 53-47 to the Coalition last time), while the Coalition leads 51-48 in South Australia (52-48 to Labor last time).
• The Guardian reports on another poll in Wentworth, conducted for the Refugee Council of Australia, which I’m going to assume was a ReachTEL although the report doesn’t say. This one is particularly interesting in providing two-party results for Liberal-versus-Phelps as well as Liberal-versus-Labor. This suggests Phelps will win 53-47 if only she can get ahead of Labor. However, the primary votes suggest she has a hurdle to clear, with Dave Sharma (Liberal) on 38.1%, Tim Murray (Labor) on 24.5%, Kerryn Phelps (independent) on 15.9% and others in single digits (there may be an undecided component in the mix of perhaps around 5% or 6% as well). The Liberal-versus-Labor result is consistent with earlier polling in showing it to be extemely close: 50-50 in this case. However, as with the previous polls, this is based on Labor receiving around two-third of preferences from mostly conservative independent candidates, which seems a bit much. The sample for the poll was 870; no field work date is provided. UPDATE: Ben Raue has provided the full numbers. After inclusion of a forced response follow-up for the 4.8% undecided, the primary votes are Sharma 39.9%, Murray 25.0%, Phelps 17.3%, Greens 9.1%, Heath 3.6%. Respondents were also asked how they had voted in 2016, and the responses are fairly well in line with the actual result.
Also on Wentworth, my guide to the by-election has been expanded and updated. Antony Green’s guide offers a particularly useful survey of the how-to-vote card situation that makes use of the term “virtue signalling”. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph has taken aim at the Greens for putting Labor ahead of Kerryn Phelps – which, he correctly notes, reduces her chances of overtaking Labor and making the final count, at which she would receive a stronger flow of preferences than Labor and thus stand a better chance of defeating the Liberals. But as Antony Green also rightly notes, “Green voters are a tough flock to herd”.
“WeWantPaul @ #364 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 2:35 pm
Boerwar you didn’t get close to mimicking from the right the post you objected to, you made my point not yours. The post you abused had a list of Republican’s clearly and objectively reinforced the point, your retort was absolutely empty of evidence, examples or well anything of value.
Much more importantly my roses are watered and fertilized I had a good run and making a couple of garden beds less embarrassing if not exactly great again and I got to sit under the shade of a vine and listen to water gargle. All I needed was a naked goddess bathing on a roof in my field of vision and I’d have been living a Leonard Cohen song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NW7oNpzBSGc”
thanks Adrian, I had honestly never seen the video before, there are probably lots of videos of his I haven’t seen … and it is a lovely song but it is so easy to get lost on that Album:
“In My Secret Life” – 4:55
“A Thousand Kisses Deep” – 6:29
“That Don’t Make It Junk” – 4:28
“Here It Is” – 4:18
“Love Itself” – 5:26
“By the Rivers Dark” – 5:20
“Alexandra Leaving” (based on “The God Abandons Antony”, a poem by Constantine P. Cavafy) – 5:25
“You Have Loved Enough” – 5:41
“Boogie Street” – 6:04
“The Land of Plenty” – 4:35
So easy to get lost between the words, let alone the songs:
“Even though she sleeps upon your satin
Even though she wakes you with a kiss
Do not say the moment was imagined
Do not stoop to strategies like this
As someone long prepared for the occasion
In full command of every plan you wrecked
Do not choose a coward’s explanation
that hides behind the cause and the effect
And you who were bewildered by a meaning
Whose code was broken, crucifix uncrossed
Say goodbye to Alexandra leaving
Then say goodbye to Alexandra lost
Say goodbye to Alexandra leaving
Then say goodbye to Alexandra lost”
Laocoon
‘The polling to date suggests a fair degree of erosion of the GRN primary to independents, which would be expected as an “alternative to the majors”’
Which would be expected because:
1. Di Natale is average, at best.
2. Greens infighting between environmentalists et al and the Trots et al.
3. Ugly personality politics.
4. A less than satisfactory and quite systemic inability to address bullying and sexual harrassment issues properly.
5. Cloud Cuckoo policies like the UBI.
6. Various legal processes involving Greens v Greens.
7. A growing realization that Der Tag is not just around the corner, and is not over the horizon, either.
8. A slowly dawning comprehension that a Labor Government will deliver many of the Greens’ objectives.
9. A growing realization that, to the extent that the Greens drain Labor, to that extent the Greens foster extreme right wing governments.
Casting a vote or recommending that others cast their vote based on guesses about the primary vote shares and preference flows of 16 candidates in an unusual election makes no sense.
The seat level polls are close to worthless at the best of times. In this Wentworth by-election the circumstances make it even more difficult than normal to predict who will win because even the matter of who the final two candidates will be is an open question.
It’s smart to be guided by the word “preferences” and vote according to the order in which you prefer the candidates.
Trying to guess how a hundred thousand other voters will vote and what the margins will be between the candidates and what the precise preference flows will be and who will get into the final round of counting is a fool’s game. There are too many unknown variables for tactical voting to make any sense in this Wentworth by-election.
Nicholas @ #406 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 11:38 am
I agree.
Just ask Mathias Cormann how well his guess of Dutton’s numbers worked out. 🙂
WeWantPaul @ #401 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 3:35 pm
My favourite song from that album. An almost perfect marrying of words and music.
People right across Sydney and across Australia everywhere are saying no to bullying, saying no to gambling interests, saying no to the idea that our beloved Opera House is just another big billboard for sale. Last night we blasted past 100,000 supporters, and we’ll be at 150,000 sometime before midday – who knows where by the end of the day. Thank you! KEEP IT GOING! (change.org)
Its now over 172500.
This could be fun.
https://www.facebook.com/events/278451909658334/
A light-based protest. A counter-projection event.
Bring things that create light in order to disrupt the use of the Sails for advertising purposes – they are reserved for art…
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE EVENT HAS BEEN MOVED TO TUESDAY 9 OCT
This thing rapidly acquired a life of its own, didn’t it? Originally this was a simple idea – that light is light – you can’t be done for obstruction, illegal assembly etc. by using the flash on your mobile phone, for instance, to take a picture of the Opera House.
So the entire premise of this protest is that it is passive – ambient, even. So here are a few initial guidelines:
– NO DRONES. This entire area of Sydney is heavily regulated in this regard. It’s dangerous, and can result in jail time. So just forget about that idea.
– NO LASER POINTERS. Because of the aircraft restrictions, I believe that you will similarly find yourself on the wrong end of the law (because the Law doesn’t take sides). This is the type of thing that will single you out to the authorities and disrupt the action as a whole.
– Torches are the type of thing that you can bring but you may be given a direction to cease and desist, or to move along. You should comply if you are given a direction. I wouldn’t suggest lugging a dolphin torch, maybe a pocket mag lite or a decent head torch. This type of direction typically has to be addressed to you personally, not over a megaphone.
– Portable projectors, such as those found on some mobile phones, would probably fall into the same category. However, if you project anything considered offensive or obscene, you will fall foul of certain sections of the Crimes Act. Stick to colours, textures, landscapes… Art. Presumably projecting an image or text onto the Sails is against the law anyway – hence the action.
– Finally, you’ve all been to a stadium concert in the last five years. It’s impressive what a few thousand phones can do. The original idea of this action was about collective, critical mass – if enough people shine their phones at the Opera House, set them to strobe or even shine them back at the TV cameras, then it’s inoffensive but ultimately disruptive. That’s a lot of lumens, and you can claim that you’re just taking a photo or whatever – you merge with the crowd.
So don’t forget to charge your phone! But do not, under any circumstances, point them at helicopters or ferries.
This was originally just an idea I just wanted to put out there to see if anyone responded and could come up with clever ideas, and having scheduled it for Friday I figured I had enough time to read the relevant regulations and legislation to answer these questions properly. However several people have insisted that this be moved to Tuesday to coincide with the date and time being promoted by the event, so it now has been. And I am not a lawyer.
Please don’t argue with the police, try to interfere with projection infrastructure, illegally climb the bridge (have certainly seen that done before) and above all don’t fly drones!
If you’re driving a tug boat, who can blame you for passing your lamps over the Sails? You’re navigating. If you’re filming a video, why shouldn’t your flash be stuck to the on position? It’s set to automatic, after all. If you can’t see very well in the dark, then why shouldn’t you be carrying a torch? It’s dangerous out there!
But the idea of this event is not to cause trouble, the idea is to express displeasure, and let that displeasure be known. And for it to be seen. Collectively.
Bevan Shields
Verified account @BevanShields
7h7 hours ago
Can’t wait for the next Summernats to be promoted on Canberra’s biggest billboard….
#auspol
Boerwar says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 3:32 pm
Whether it leaves yo cold or otherwise, in Wentworth the preferencing proposition is quite straight forward – provided you think it is important to roll Sharma.
————————————-
I think there is not much to commend a Phelps presence in the Parliament in place of Sharma or whatever other Liberal runs in future elections, from my own strong “left-libertarian” perspective. On matters economic, she is your fairly typical small-business-friendly Liberal. If her vote was decisive in removing or retaining a Morrison Coalition Government, she would vote to maintain it. She said she would do so, because she accepts that wealthy retirees in Wentworth deserve what they have and so should maintain their life of comfort, in preference to prioritising action to protect the planet, spread educational opportunities fairly or enable workers to act together to improve their lot at a time they are busting a gut while those above them skate away with ever-exploding riches.
So I for one think Sharma and Phelps are tweedledum and tweedledee where it matters, and would much rather that those who are uncomfortable with the direction this Government is taking us all vote to maximise Tim Murray’s change of winning Wentworth, not to minimise Sharma’s.
As much as I would love to believe that governments will do the right thing re. global warming & climate change I do not believe they will.
Far too much in the thrall of the fossil fuel industry for a start, and how are NSW & Qld going to reverse all that land clearing with the ‘graziers’ & ‘farmers’ & ‘irrigators’ all breathing down their political necks?
No way in hell – which is sadly where the planet will end up IMHO.
I’m assuming a lot of the speculation re Wentworth is based on this piece by Hilderbrand.
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/joe-hildebrand-the-incredibly-dumb-blunder-that-could-decide-expm-malcolm-turnbulls-seat/news-story/8c41672a121356bcef4edfa1e6a3122a
He makes a few good points but the Greens are a waning force and are unlikely to shape the final outcome. They might finish 5th in primaries.
I reckon it’s pretty much the Libs get 40%primary and they win. Below that and it’s likely to be Phelps. 40% only represents a 22% swing against the Government which is about what is happening everywhere atm.
I noted the Chair at Bank of Queensland Ltd made reference to that Company not taking advantage of the removal of 6 Pillars by Costello and buying into Insurance and Fund Manager businesses has seen it spared attention at the Hayne RC
I noted also that the lead in an organisation attempting to draw attention to the relationship between banks and legal and accounting houses and the disadvantage of those under pressure from their banks before the Courts self represented before the Court – having been taken there by Bank of Queensland
The organisation consists of 1,200 – but I did not note the name
I represented on a pro bono basis someone to whom’s estranged brother Bank of Queensland lent – immediately upon his release from 7 years in jail on multiple charges as a mortgage originator
And where the judgement noted he was a serial offender – hence the sentence
Sutton needs to be called to account because Bank of Queensland is amongst the worst of our banks – including by its recovery actions which whilst not illegal are unethical at best
Their business model, relying on brokers receiving commissions and franchise operators was not and is not sustainable
How many franchises have been shut down because of the quality of their lending book?
shellbell @ #127 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 8:51 am
Congratulations to Mrs Shelbell.
A repost of my earlier post for those not around at the time..
Hey guys, you may not have noticed, but that article in BK’s links about Sydney Town Hall station is actually quite significant.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/town-hall-station-overcrowding-to-force-staff-to-slow-access-at-peak-20180921-p5056j.html
There is a bigger picture here that I want to explain carefully.
First of all, Town Hall station has limited space on its platforms. Remember when it was designed, it was designed for a city of about 2 million people and its done a good job. But its not designed for the volumes of people using it now.
Secondly, the single biggest factor that causes congestion on Town Hall’s platforms is the fact that every train goes somewhere different or has different stops. This means that people will often be standing on the platforms waiting for the next train, or even the one after. Instead of each train clearing the platform, having people waiting for the train after further adds to congestion.
This is rather unusual in the world that a major CBD station has to serve trains with constantly changing stopping patterns. The norm is that each platform sees trains that go to the exactly the seam stations every time. And this effect – not having every train clear the platform – is choking Town Hall.
So what’s really wrong? Well, its Sydney’s complex branched and looped train network. Its also having train lines that are far too long relative to the speed of the trains, forcing timetablers to run a multitude of stopping patterns to try to please everyone (and as a result running a crap, slow network).
If we are going to have a modern, efficient train network, we need to further disconnect branches and not force multiple logical sectors onto the same physical tracks (and platforms).
The most obvious example of this is the Bankstown line. Trains from here run onto the city circle, and thus share platforms at Town Hall. This means that other trains that run towards the inner west or the airport must be scheduled around the Bankstown trains. Causing not only more congestion at Town Hall but also causing these other timetables to be irregular and less predictable. One of the worst things that can happen in a busy rail network is uneven times between trains. That’s also part of why Town Hall is suffering.
Sydney Metro offers to give the Bankstown line its own tracks and platforms in the CBD, thus simplifying operation at Town Hall. This will help congestion. Yet we have opposition to this process from the usual suspects (this includes certain retirees from ShittyRail).
Of course it isn’t just the Bankstown line. The entire network needs de-convolution. For example we have the inner west and south line (T2) where some trains go to Parramatta and some trains go to Leppington. Now because T5 (Leppington to Schofield) shares tracks with T2 up to Merrylands we have a timetable that is deliberately padded which means it takes 25 minutes to get from Liverpool to Parramatta, when it should take more like 17 minutes.
In any case, because we have long distance trains mixing with local trains on T2, we end up with complex timetable that gives us hour long commutes from Leppington and poor frequency service in the inner west. The fault here lies with the branching of the network itself.
The solution is to give T5 an exclusive pair of tracks. Run all trains from Leppington through Parramatta and out to Blacktown/Schofields/Richmond. This forces a change of trains at Parramatta. But! In so doing it speeds up the line north of Liverpool and with a fast train from Parramatta to the CBD, this means a lot faster trips from the south. Its made even faster if there is a train from Leppington to Western Sydney Airport and then a fast train from there to Parramatta and the CBD.
Now go back to Town Hall. What you see is a simple all stops train on T2 through the inner west to Parramatta and St Marys. Those that join these trains at Town Hall know exactly where their train will go (they all do exactly the same thing). The function of a fast train to Parramatta is taken over by a new, fast rail line. So T2 can provide a “turn up and go” service to the inner west. Now giving the inner west a high frequency service at every station means you can re-route local bus services to inner west stations, rather than forcing them down Parramatta Road. End result is shorter journeys.
Now I have more to say on this subject, but the point is we are now at capacity as far as Town Hall goes. We need to not just build Metro West, but also a separate fast rail line from the CBD to Parramatta to the west. And we need to take the existing surface network and continue to simplify it. Make trains more frequent, more predictable, more usable. The hangers on that don’t want things to change are not doing us a favour.
Bishop is NOT a dragon. A bespangled axylotl that fell into a bucket of glitter, maybe.
Greensborough Growler @ #142 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 9:17 am
What if the Libs do really badly and actually get 35% primary in Wentworth?
What if Phelps gets 25% (mostly bled from Liberal) and Labor get 22%?
And then the Greens second preferences plus a couple of other minor parties kick Labor into 2nd?
And then you get a stronger than expected 2nd preference flow from Phelps back to Labor?
Can happen.
boolean forget the corruption just consider the sheer lack of intellect and the ignorance and stupidty of the Federal Liberals. They really are dangerously stupid.
The age breakdown of polling in Victoria is of interest with an age demographic divide
So the older age group, no doubt Queen and Country, are the Liberal fortress
Conversely the younger age group break the opposite way
This younger age bracket are those impacted by flat to recessionary wages growth, insecure Terms and Conditions of employment, rising interest rates on their home loans (but not their savings) courtesy of Wholesale cost of funds on Global Capital Markets (and then we have the depreciation of the AUD and the risk to the Risk Weighting of our banks) and COL increases from utilities (and no, these costs are not falling – they continue to increase including on outlook) to Private Health Cover to Home Insurance to Council Rates and now the cooling in house prices and surging petroleum prices
So the pressure is on – well and truly
This will be the demographic which only casually look at their Annual Fund Manager Statements for their superannuation returns and where tawdry returns are not their focus – yet
This is where elections will be won
And infrastructure spending witness the Victorian government which is keeping the Victorian economy afloat and providing employment which is its 4 year history – not just in the shadows of an election like its predecessor
And on another issue the decline of Japan continues with population anticipated to fall from 120,000 Million to just over 80,000 Million over 20 years due to an ageing population and no immigration
The Japanese Government is now trying to reverse this trend to stabilise at 100,000 Million
Meanwhile in the economic powerhouses of China and India
The summary is that youth has it!!!
Maybe, but she’s the Lib Leader Labor would find hardest to beat.
BW
Trickle down economics is cloud cukoo.
A UBI is not only sane but inevitable.
ABC website down altogether.
Where’s the new GM?
I’d recommend that home buyers put any savings in to their re-draw account. Sure, there is no interest. But, reducing your home loan drawings means you obtain around 4% return. And, you can always take it out again at a later time.
Most of the Banks don’t charge for this facility these days.
ItzaDream @ #407 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 2:53 pm
Over the distances that would be involved in this case, no, there may be a lot of lumens but there will also be insufficient lux delivered to the target. It’s simple inverse-square law stuff.
Torches are a better idea, if they’re of the ‘tactical’, adjustable-focus variety. Anything lower end will be as ineffective as the cell-phones.
Although a fleet of laser-pointer equipped drones would be by far the most fun. Damn fascists making all the cool things illegal.
Michael
‘So I for one think Sharma and Phelps are tweedledum and tweedledee where it matters…’
I do get sick of the old Greens same same mantra.
Sharma in, and Morrison and the Government gets a boost.
Phelps in, and Morrison gets a kick in the political ghoolies and real trouble holding it all together.
I know, I know: based on 30 years of observing the Greens, that is far too nuanced.
‘Pseudo Cud Chewer says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 4:31 pm
BW
Trickle down economics is cloud cukoo.
A UBI is not only sane but inevitable.’
The costings, the costings!
BW its already been explained to you by several posters (including me) how a UBI is plausible.
The details of a UBI require a lot of work. Only a party in government can do that.
There was an article saying beware of “redraw” facilities because in the current climate redraw may not be allowed
It appears “Offset” accounts are the way to go
But check the small print
ANZ and NAB have both broken to below $27- today with Westpac just holding that level
CBA have broken to below $70-
The AUD remains under pressure
And Borrison is (fittingly) in the passenger seat – and passing comment on the Opera House
Who fiddled whilst Rome burned?
It is time for some economic direction in Australia – not just leaving it to the State governments who are giving economic stimulus – which is not all State governments because some are adopting austerity measures to restore confidence based on idealogy
‘Pseudo Cud Chewer says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 4:42 pm
BW its already been explained to you by several posters (including me) how a UBI is plausible.
The details of a UBI require a lot of work. Only a party in government can do that.’
Just the broad brush costings, so we know what we are voting for should we vote for the Greens.
This protest nonsense misses the point. The organisers of the Everest will be overjoyed at the enormous publicity and grateful for the national and international awareness their little horse race has generated. Sure there are people exercising their outrage. But , not that many in the greater scheme of things. The organisers have already won and a mass protest to stop lights being shone on to a building as a meaningful protest is another example of bizarre virtue signalling and people with too much time on their hands.
I suppose Sydney will be the winner.
Quake in your boots, ajm, you’re butting your head up against the pinnacle of 19th Century critical biblical scholarship.
phoenixRED @ #361 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 2:32 pm
How annoying that I have had to be out all day when what is possibly the most important IPCC report yet published is released. I haven’t had time to read the report itself yet – maybe tonight. But your article does not make me very optimistic …
The reality (which I am sure is buried deep in the actual report) is that in practice we are soon going to sail past the total of greenhouse gas emissions that will ensure 1.5 degrees warming, barely even slowing as we do so – and there is not much anyone can do about it. We are very likely to exceed the total emissions that will ensure 2 degrees of warming shortly thereafter. Only then are we likely to be able to bring our rate of emissions down, maybe enough to avert 3 or 4 degrees warming. Maybe.
Of course, this will also rely on “negative emissions” technologies that are not yet even at the experimental stages.
Offsets can work for some people. But, it’s an operational account and my observation is that savings tend to be eroded over time through slack personal financial management. Most Banks charge an annual fee of approximately $400 for this type of facility. Re-draw works because you put a lump sum in to the actual loan and if you maintain your payments at the same level, it will enable people to pay off their loan more quickly. Being able to re-draw up to the amount that the loan should be at is a good facility. However, most Banks don’t allow re-draw on fixed rate loans during the fixed period.
Why lie when you can tell the truth? The good news about Australia’s fight against global warming from Minister Taylor:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/scott-morrison-defends-australia-remaining-in-paris-agreement/news-story/6b38cbadf032d3ee4df8bcd6fd61154c
Morrison has reached peak idiot. He reckons that building nuclear reactors might REDUCE energy prices. this is a nice little distractor, but. The only real game in Morrison’s town is using tax monies to subsidise more coal burning.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/whatever-it-takes-scomo-prepared-to-go-nuclear-if-it-cuts-power-prices/news-story/1193fd298fb3ff1d57b4e48accea3ee1
A UBI would likely be highly inflationary because it has no counter-cyclical component. The government’s spending on a UBI would be constant instead of rising and falling in response to private sector spending. A UBI (if set at a high enough level) would likely induce a significant number of people to leave the workforce (indeed for many UBI advocates this is an explicit goal of a UBI). If the workforce shrinks, output falls. If total spending stays the same because the government is spending a constant sum on a UBI, inflation ensues.
Containing the inflationary pressure of a UBI would require heavy taxation that would be extremely unpopular.
For instance, the Greens are promising a UBI of over $20,000 per Australian adult per year. This would require $440 billion of extra spending per year: an immense amount of spending when you consider that the federal government currently spends about $480 billion per year in total. Even if the Greens’ proposed UBI replaced all existing social security and welfare spending, total federal government spending would rise by 50 percent. Containing the inflationary pressure created by all that extra spending would require increasing marginal income tax rates by 10 or 15 percent, doubling the GST, and eliminating all tax concessions (including those for superannuation). What is the probability of the public accepting that scale of tax increase? The numbers come from Steven Hail’s article here:
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/a-job-guarantee-a-better-cheaper-alternative-to-the-greens-ubi,11486
If a UBI is set at a level that is too low to live on, it merely becomes a wage subsidy for employers and workers don’t end up better off in net terms.
A UBI would still entail a large amount of labour wastage because the spending would not be targeted at direct job creation for the unemployed.
The unemployed who receive their UBI would be just as stigmatised as Newstart allowance recipients are today.
A UBI would violate the cultural norm of reciprocity. People are willing to share resources with others who are perceived as contributing in accordance with their capacities to contribute. People don’t like freeloaders. A UBI would be highly vulnerable to being eroded over time because of public resentment of “undeserving recipients”.
A UBI only provides income. A Job Guarantee provides income plus all of the psychosocial benefits of paid work: contribution, belonging, mastery experiences, positive social interactions, strong social networks, being respected and valued by the community.
A UBI conceptualises people as consumption entities. A Job Guarantee conceptualises people as citizens, contributors, valued colleagues, active participants in society.
There are bad jobs today – jobs that are exploitative, jobs that are unfulfilling. I understand why many people are disillusioned with paid work. But the problems with paid work mostly stem from an economy far short of full employment. When the labour market is tight, employers find it much harder to get away with being exploitative, complacent, and inattentive to their workers’ needs. Achieve and maintain full employment and most of those problems recede.
The solution to bad jobs is to make paid work better, not to give up on the goal of providing fulfilling paid work to all who seek it.
The federal government has immense power to set a good quality floor for wages and conditions so that everyone, including minimum wage workers, gets a fair share of productivity growth.
The federal government can use a federally funded, community administered Job Guarantee to widen our society’s imagination of what a good paid job can be. Many socially valuable activities that are currently defined by culture as hobbies, leisure, or unpaid work can and should be converted into minimum wage jobs on demand.
The “robots are coming for our jobs” narrative is unsupported by evidence. If that were really happening, productivity would be skyrocketing and so would job churn (a measure of the ratio of increases and declines in particular occupations to changes in the total number of employed people). Instead, productivity growth is low and job churn has never been lower.
Automation does have labour displacement effects but this is countered by two other important effects:
1. Worker augmentation effects. The new technology makes the worker more precise and accurate in how they do their job and enables the worker to focus on higher skilled tasks.
2. Increased household spending power via growth in the productive capacity of society overall. This increases total demand. Firms respond to increased demand by producing more output. Firms therefore need to employ more people. Of course this requires appropriate use of labour policy, industry policy, corporate law, financial sector regulation, and fiscal policy to ensure that the productivity gains are broadly shared.
There is a need for generous transition support for workers whose jobs are displaced because of technology or government policy. Education and training at all levels should be free for everyone. All forms of health care should be free for everyone. A federal Job Guarantee that funds good quality minimum wage jobs for all who want one is essential. The federal government can maintain displaced workers’ most recent annual income for a transition period (perhaps five years). The federal government can make strategic investments in new industries that are environmentally sustainable and socially useful. Public services can be expanded if needed. The federal government has many policy levers that it can use to help displaced workers.
Automation reshuffles the tasks between machines and humans. It doesn’t reduce the total need for socially valuable activity by people. That need is limited by our imagination and cultural norms more than anything else.
We should be optimistic about the future of paid work. There is no shortage of fulfilling, interesting, and socially valuable things for people to do.
For the past 200 years automation has been the world’s dominant economic trend. Automation has not reduced the value or importance of human effort, contribution, and ingenuity.
Artificial intelligence and robotics are still at a very rudimentary stage. We have no reason to give up on the concept of good quality paid work for all who seek it. Even if AI and robotics become very advanced 20 years from now, that development will reshuffle tasks between machines and humans like the previous five waves of industrial revolution. Human societies get to decide what activities are valuable and we are very imaginative and creative in this area. Predictions of a post-work society are unfounded. Work will change (for the better, if we distribute the productivity gains broadly). Work won’t go away.
The idea that there is a finite amount of work to be parcelled out is known as the lump of labour fallacy. It’s been disproved time and time again. When machines take on certain tasks, it frees up people to imagine and do other tasks.
A Job Guarantee combined with a targeted Basic Income (for retirees and for people who cannot or should not be working) would be vastly superior to a Universal Basic Income.
We can make paid work better today and we should be optimistic about the future of paid work.
What the IPCC is saying is that we’re fucked.
‘Nicholas says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 4:55 pm
A UBI would likely be highly inflationary because it has no counter-cyclical component.’
Di Natale’s UBI is lunatic stuff. A rough back of the envelope costing shows that he would have to double the tax take to pay for it.
Hello?
I took issue by responding to Wilson Asset Management Co re dividend imputation.
To their credit they have actually responded viz:-
“Thank you for sharing your thoughts on the issue.
However, we are campaigning for the best interests of our Shareholders which means no changes to the current dividend imputation system.
As an individual I understand you can have other considerations such as political and social issues, but as a Company our objective is protecting shareholder value”
So there you go.
“Bishop is NOT a dragon. A bespangled axylotl that fell into a bucket of glitter, maybe.”
Gold!
You win the internet today Puffy! 🙂
I just heard Morrison say that the IPCC warning refers to the global situation and does’nt affect the Australian situation.
Well, of course he didn’t say that, because it would mean that he is deliberately misunderstanding the situation, doesn’t it…
Maybe it’s time to change the legislation/regulations so that corporations have a duty not just to shareholders & their values, but to society as a whole.
‘lizzie says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 5:04 pm
I just heard Morrison say that the IPCC warning refers to the global situation and does’nt affect the Australian situation.
Well, of course he didn’t say that, because it would mean that he is deliberately misunderstanding the situation, doesn’t it…’
WE WILL DECIDE WHAT CLIMATE CHANGE CROSSES OUR BORDERS!
Boerwar
Sooooo Scrott is telling us that the most expensive form of electricity will make electricity cheaper ? He needs to leave the glossolalia in The Shire.
Boer
We have our own maths, so we can have our own climate.
BW,
Morrison is like my dog that barks and charges the front fence whenever a neighbour passes by with another dog. Of course the passing dog was moving outside the territory anyways. But our dog returns to the front porch and mat very full of itself for it’s ability to see off the invader.
GG
A mix of barking mad, hoppo bumpo, and smirking?
NB: I could request that they define “shareholder value”, but ……….
And, no doubt there is the protection of the fee generation of WAM to consider.
ANZ were down 2.63% today (after write downs), CBA down 0.93%, NAB down 1.25% and Westpac down 1.31% – with Telstra, that other franked dividend icon, down 1.85%
These continuing declines see ANZ and NAB breaking below $27-, Westpac just above $27- and CBA breaking below $70-
What were their peaks again, and when?
And what were the Tranch IPO prices on Telstra?
And when?
Meanwhile, after 2 successive DJIA falls of around 200 Points on the advancement of Bond Yields signalling interest rate increases, from historical Indices highs, the DJIA Futures are flat ahead of tonight’s session.
“Maybe it’s time to change the legislation/regulations so that corporations have a duty not just to shareholders & their values, but to society as a whole.”
I think it is more important to recognised companies are just tools to advance economic ends, they aren’t some god that demands all the deference they receive. Accept that they are going to nasty greedy sods, and have vigorously enforced regulation, and stiff, very stiff penalties.
‘zoomster says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 5:10 pm
Boer
We have our own maths, so we can have our own climate.’
Cracker.
Yep, looks like the climate stops at the border. Phew ! We are safe
@ScottMorrisonMP: on the climate report: This report deals with the global situation, it does not provide recommendations to Australia or Australia’s program.