No Newspoll this week, which is holding back for the resumption of parliament next week. However, we do have a new Victorian state poll out from ReachTEL, which you can read about in the post directly below this one, along with an update of my poll aggregation from the state. The Guardian should bring us results from Essential Research’s regular fortnightly federal poll overnight tomorrow. Also on the polling front:
• The Fairfax papers have reported state breakdowns aggregated from the last three monthly Ipsos polls, which mix one poll from before the leadership coup, one from the immediate lead-up to it, and one from a month after. This shows Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 in the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged), 52-48 in Queensland (unchanged) and 51-49 in Western Australia (an unusual 53-47 to the Coalition last time), while the Coalition leads 51-48 in South Australia (52-48 to Labor last time).
• The Guardian reports on another poll in Wentworth, conducted for the Refugee Council of Australia, which I’m going to assume was a ReachTEL although the report doesn’t say. This one is particularly interesting in providing two-party results for Liberal-versus-Phelps as well as Liberal-versus-Labor. This suggests Phelps will win 53-47 if only she can get ahead of Labor. However, the primary votes suggest she has a hurdle to clear, with Dave Sharma (Liberal) on 38.1%, Tim Murray (Labor) on 24.5%, Kerryn Phelps (independent) on 15.9% and others in single digits (there may be an undecided component in the mix of perhaps around 5% or 6% as well). The Liberal-versus-Labor result is consistent with earlier polling in showing it to be extemely close: 50-50 in this case. However, as with the previous polls, this is based on Labor receiving around two-third of preferences from mostly conservative independent candidates, which seems a bit much. The sample for the poll was 870; no field work date is provided. UPDATE: Ben Raue has provided the full numbers. After inclusion of a forced response follow-up for the 4.8% undecided, the primary votes are Sharma 39.9%, Murray 25.0%, Phelps 17.3%, Greens 9.1%, Heath 3.6%. Respondents were also asked how they had voted in 2016, and the responses are fairly well in line with the actual result.
Also on Wentworth, my guide to the by-election has been expanded and updated. Antony Green’s guide offers a particularly useful survey of the how-to-vote card situation that makes use of the term “virtue signalling”. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph has taken aim at the Greens for putting Labor ahead of Kerryn Phelps – which, he correctly notes, reduces her chances of overtaking Labor and making the final count, at which she would receive a stronger flow of preferences than Labor and thus stand a better chance of defeating the Liberals. But as Antony Green also rightly notes, “Green voters are a tough flock to herd”.
Vic,
I hope your dad is recovering well from his surgery. Was he a manual labourer?
‘At risk of stating the obvious, this is shaping as the most consequential byelection in Australian political history.’
Why?
Oh…
‘Loss of Wentworth would not simply rob the government of its majority, it would presage an intensification of a wider battle for the “heart and soul’’ of the Liberal Party…’
So just as important as the New England and Bennelong by elections, then?
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/wentworth-this-is-no-ordinary-byelection-20181005-p507w5.html
Victoria:
I hope so. Unfortunately, the 538 aggregate shows a pretty rapid improvement in Trump’s approval ratings, suggesting that the Kavanaugh situation is playing out a little differently in general voterland than with us lefties.
‘In a useful Parliamentary Library analysis of House of Representatives byelections 1901-2017, no byelection has brought about the fall of a government.’
And this one wouldn’t, either.
‘Labor’s unexpected victory in the north Queensland seat of Dawson in 1966, presaged a Gough Whitlam ascendancy. Conversely, Labor’s loss of Bass in Tasmania in 1975 preceded his demise.’
So again, losing this one would merely be an ominous sign, not the most consequential byelection evah.
So an article which starts off with a hyperbolic contention and then just goes on to state the obvious.
(but it does mention William, so that’s a plus!)
zoomster @ #102 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 8:12 am
Bennelong and New England returned Government Members under the PMship of Turnbull. They were the S44 by-elections all of which have returned the same Party.
This one is different because of the circumstances of a locally popular MP who was also the PM resigning following the leadership coup. The other issue that emerged post coup was the treatment of women in the Liberal party and the allegations of bullying.
The Libs seem to have pre-selected another man with a campaign employing questionable tactics.
Polling seems to show Labor and Phelps in with realistic chances of winning.
Were the Libs to lose Wentworth, the internal recriminations within the Party will be devastating to their electoral prospects.
Good morning all,
The government can huff and puff all it likes about how great the NBN and NDIS are.
The lived experience is far far different. Just as Morrison and co continue to pat themselves on the back about jobs and the economy. The lived experience of flat wages and rising costs is far far different.
Anyway, the politics will turn to climate and energy today. Shorten reinforced the labor comitement to renewerables yesterday so this week will be interesting.
Scott ” what energy / climate policy ” Morrison will be interesting to watch as well especially as Craig Kelly, Abbott and the ferals in the media let fly.
Cheers and a great day to all
C@t:
Sending positive vibes for your son!
Who do the Libs represent now? Is the Wentworth by-election a chance to gives us a clue? Has Alan Jones done the libs chances in Wentworth a massive disservice?
What a dreadful name for a a horse racing concept! It will become a another Doomben 10,000. A USA style marketing ploy to create wealth for a few. The desperates in horse racing stretch right to the top. I would have thought the Slipper was the race in Sydney.
Berejiklian has not done herself or the libs any favours by such a prostrate position with this horsey matter.
A very divided and disillusioned Australia may raise its head as a result of ths Morrison/Berejiklian/Jones/Foley imbroglio and horse racing the loser.
One person has notably kept his head down. Again.
Oh I hope this comes back to bite them!
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1048951220222812160
C@t
My father worked in the construction industry mainly as a crane operator. He also did rigging etc.
GG
So Wright should have said these things, rather than writing fluff.
(I’m not denying that IF the Liberals lose Wentworth, it will be consequential. But, on the evidence, no more consequential than Labor losing Bass or Howard losing Ryan…)
Ive been engaging in a little bit of a Facebook feud with Dr Kerryn Phillips and her supporters over her decision to issue a How to Vote Card that preferences the Liberals over Labor: not necessarily because of her decision per se, but her crab walking away from the consequences of this action and her dishonesty: It seems clear that she thought at the time that she could be squeezed between a Liberal sneer campaign and the fact that Wentworth may well have a disproportionately high number of property investors with negative geared portfolios and Self managed retirees with share portfolios – to whom Labor’s policies on both are poison. Fine: she should admit to those reasons and own up to the consequences.
Then I’d have no problem in still preferring her to the Liberals and would secretly hope she finished in second place before the final distribution of preferences and hence probably win the seat on the back of Labor’s final preferences.
That said, while I’d love to see Labor win, and despite my misgivings about her I still think Phelps has the best chance of winning the byelection from the tories AND then establishing herself as a long term MP, thereby denying the Tories a seat that would otherwise be theirs for the long term. I just wish she wasn’t so glib, transparent and frankly dishonest.
As a final aside, I don’t know why Phelps has dug herself into this hole: the Libs are targeting her with a scare campaign anyway and she could have easy printed an alternative How to Vote Card – with one side headline ‘How to Vote 1 Dr Kerryn Phelps and preference Labor” and the other side “How to vote 1 Dr Kerryn Phelps and preference Liberals”. Ive seen that before and its a pretty standard approach. … I’m surprised that as “an independent” candidate she didn’t do exactly that. …
zoomster @ #111 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 8:35 am
“Walker’ is the journo if you bother to read the article.
He makes a pretty good case based on WB’s observation that the electorate is diverse and has a number of sub-groupings. The glue that kept them together for the Libs was pretty much the moderate Liberal values represented by Turnbull.
You may not want to believe that a Liberal loss in Wentworth would be significantly consequential. But, many people including myself will beg to differ.
A_E,
If what you say is true about the reasons why Phelps didn’t preference Labor, it shows that she is just another politician and not an independent thinker who will decide what is the best policy for the Budget and the nation at all!
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/homeless-man-believed-deportee-australia-dies-auckland-s-streets
zoomster, I think the timing of Wentworth is a big factor in its ‘importance’. It’s the last big electoral test before the Federal election and momentum is just that, momentum.
“A_E,
If what you say is true about the reasons why Phelps didn’t preference Labor, it shows that she is just another politician and not an independent thinker who will decide what is the best policy for the Budget and the nation at all!”
Even independents have to “dance with the one who brung them” so I can forgive her for reflecting some heartfelt positions of her electors: who knows she may also believe in those positions herself.
Well the consequences of an ALP or in independent win might but probably would notbring down the government
The numbers would be 69 ALP, 6 cross benchers and 75 LNP. if the Libs keep the speaker role then all 6 of the cross benchers would need to vote for no confidence. I cannot see Katter doing this. So the LNP have a very secure 75 votes plus the speaker. However Katter’s attendance is patchy so the possibility of a snap vote of no confidence exists. However while Bandt, Phelps, Wikie and Sharkie might go along, I doubt McGowan would. So the best would be 73 75.
There is of course the possibility of renegades eg Banks and maybe Laundy. That would tip the balance and bring down the government even assuming Katter turned up ie 75 /74
We in Australia seem to have a pale shadow (thankfully) of the US society:
Yeah. I think that many of us see this in our lives. Where there are these entities now and they’re on a spectrum, right? You mentioned Infowars, Breitbart’s there, Fox News is there. You can try to point to corresponding entities on the left and, I don’t know, some might argue they’re just not as good at it yet or something. But I don’t think that if they exist, that they have that same impact.
In particular we do not have the truly evil Mitch McConnell.
This is a very interesting read.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/trump-russia-smoking-gun-explains-subservience-putin/
I wonder how Morrison would react to Labor putting electoral advertising on the Opera House.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #113 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 8:41 am
A_E, good on you. Talking around, it’s her about face on preferences that has voters flummoxed. Much of the electorate is more than capable of sorting out their preferences; they’re nothing if not informed and opinionated.
Segueing into the SMH, the most relevant out-take from the Walker piece, which nicely references Mr Bowe, is how heterogeneous is the electorate, but I would disagree with the idea of Phelps getting the gay vote because she’s gay, though that said I think there is some lesbian loyalty at play. The general gay vote is as economically and socially thoughtful as any other, but if they were just going to vote ‘gay’, they’d more likely follow Alex Greenwich and Clover Moore’s preferred candidate and vote Licia Heath.
GG
Um, I SAID losing Wentworth would be consequential….it was Wright’s arguments I had issues with.
Yours were better.
The Rum Rebellion is alive and well in Sydneytown. The irony of Turnbull’s demise and flight to New York. Governor Bligh may well have felt as aggrieved. And the mordern day Rum Corp stirred on by that brigand agitator on the radio has allowed the corp to put a hole right through the sails of the Opera House and displayed their frenzied cry with the help of the acting 2nd lieutenant Morrison and Corporal Berejiklian.
‘horse racing and stadiums we will have’
It’s a pity about transport and health and water security and climate change! Nah just privatize the lot, an Everest to be climbed and the bloody race does even have an Australian name.
A challenge to the good citizens of Wentworth, you’ve been ‘rolled’ by a sharpy from the shire with the help of the other ‘would be’ denizen from Queensland. Are you going to adopt Gladys’ position and take it lying down.
Only less than two weeks!
Thinking of you C@t. Hope you are well considered and cared for, as Mum’s should be, and the boy has come through OK.
GG
‘“Walker’ is the journo if you bother to read the article.’
I obviously read the article. I made a minor mistake about the journo.
Surprised at how hot under the collar you seem to be about this.
Best lawyer in the family, Mrs Shellbell, up for the gong of leading pro bono lawyer at Australian Women in Law Awards.
Also nominated for awards is Liberty Sanger and Sharn Coombes – is she the Survivor participant?
If Wentworth is lost, I think the Coalition would still be a good bet to maintain confidence for the rest of the parliamentary term. McGowan can most likely be relied upon to support the government, as would any renegade Libs or Nats who join Hogan on the crossbench. Katter would probably play hardball for a bit and exact a steep price, but ultimately is far more predisposed to support the Coalition then Labor – just look at how he voted on the various motioned relating to Dutton. Bandt would be voting with Labor, and I imagine Wilkie would be too, which leaves Sharkie as the wildcard.
Nonetheless, going from majority to minority government would be an enormous blow for Morrison and the government, and both the knives and the “embattled” descriptors would be well and truly out once again.
Congrats to Mrs Shellbell!
DaretoTread @ #119 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 9:06 am
Your analysis assumes things stay the same. If Labor secure a significant swing then a lot of Libs on tight margins may go feral (independent) in order to perhaps give themselves a chance in the up coming election.
I doubt Phelps would be up for bringing sown the Government as she just spent bucket loads on getting there and the chances of surviving a General Election are unknown. She’ll be there to promote a couple of issues of importance to her and establish herself.
So the action is all about what the Libs do post Wentworth.
Katter may require, in return for his support, that parliament be conducted in the Chairman’s lounge at Canberra Airport
Wry chuckle.
zoomster @ #126 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 9:20 am
I’m surprised about how you, as the house pedant could make such a basic mistake.
shellbell @ #127 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 9:21 am
You will henceforth be known as Mr. Mrs. 😍Shellbell. 😍
If the Coalition loses Wentworth, the situation would be similar to that which applied in the 2010-13 Federal Parliament. The Government would be pretty secure but it would no longer have total control of the parliamentary agenda. So they could no longer shut down debate at will, topics they don’t want to talk about will get an airing, they might lose the odd non-critical vote. The Opposition would on occasion be able to successfully raise points of order and suspensions of standing orders to influence the ebb and flow of proceedings.
One big difference is that the bulk of the media will be campaigning against regime change, not for it.
“Call me naive, but I certainly didn’t expect there would be such a reaction to us using the Opera House sails for 10 minutes to promote The Everest event internationally so as to procure visitors coming to Sydney”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/promotion-was-always-going-to-be-good-for-sydney-20181007-p508a1.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1538945949
Greenwich hosting meet and greet Licia Heath this Tuesday.
Sharma had a meet and greet at the RPE Yacht Club (in-laws connection).
I haven’t heard a peep from Labor; maybe I’m just not in the loop, but I do have a letter box, well a slot in the front door.
Another (relatively) high profile Republican ditches his party.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/tom-nichols-why-im-leaving-republican-party/572419/?utm_source=twb
Shell bell
Super congratulations to Mrs Shellbell
Lizzy
Most unfair to bring me to tears on a fine Monday morning
Cat
Good health to your son
GG
I agree about the renegades but not quite sure just who. Banks yes Laudy possibly. Have you any idea about others? I guess Prentice here has nothing to lose.
And Rick Wilson’s response, maybe an indication he too is thinking of ditching them.
Gladys might as well hand the keys to the Premier’s office door to the parrot:
SMH headline this morning.
DaretoTread @ #139 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 9:43 am
Enter the Dragon!
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-will-change-the-world-julie-bishop-20181007-p5089s.html
Steve777:
Yep, that’s how I see it too.
While one should never underestimate how unpredictable a panicking marginal seat-holder can be, I think GG’s suggestion that some Libs or Nats might take the career-ending move of voting the bring down their own government is probably pretty unlikely. A lost seat can be won back at the next election. Party expulsion is more permanent.
Now, those who have lost preselection might feel they have less to lose, to be fair, but even then I’d think it a long shot – if nothing else, someone quitting their party to run as an indepent would need time to raise funds, form a proper campaign for the next election, and build a bigger profile in the electorate than “obscure party hack who everyone just voted for as a proxy for the party leader”, and it would be in their best interest that the election was delayed for as long as possible.
If there’s a large enough swing in Wentworth, there will certainly be consequences within the government, including the sorts of self-destructive idiocy that only impending electoral doom can bring about, but I think it’ll mainly be of the internal kind – leaking, sniping, public recriminations, attempted (or successful) leadership spills – rather than anything that would actually force an early election.
Well done to Mrs Shellbell .
Mega congrats to Mrs Shellbell!
If Tim Murray wins Wentworth, the numbers on the floor of the House (excluding the Speaker) will be
Coalition 74
ALP 70
Grn 1
CA 1
KAP 1
Ind 2
If Katter is absent, and McGowan votes for a no confidence motion (ie, with Labor), the numbers are:
Aye (bring down govt): 74
Noe (keep govt): 74
Speaker breaks tie to save govt.
Voters in Wentworth can vote Labor to kick the Morrison Government in the pants, while not risking actually tipping the govt out and triggering a general election straight away.
Asha Leu @ #143 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 9:47 am
The Libs are broke. So, anyone outside a “furniture saving” seat is going to struggle for HO support. Their only chance might be to go Independent. As for expulsion, a number of MHRs may be pleased to be rid of the yoke of Party discipline in a Party that no longer represents their values.
Meanwhile back at the Labor ranch,,,,,,,,,
https://outline.com/37hYe2
What I am saying is, anyone who is raising the spectre of any result in Wentworth actually bringing down the Government in a no confidence motion on the floor of the House, either has not counted the numbers properly, or is stirring up mischievous fear in the minds of Liberal voters in Wentworth, to scare them into running back to their usual sheepfold.
For C@tmomma’s son and Victoria’s Dad.