No Newspoll this week, which is holding back for the resumption of parliament next week. However, we do have a new Victorian state poll out from ReachTEL, which you can read about in the post directly below this one, along with an update of my poll aggregation from the state. The Guardian should bring us results from Essential Research’s regular fortnightly federal poll overnight tomorrow. Also on the polling front:
• The Fairfax papers have reported state breakdowns aggregated from the last three monthly Ipsos polls, which mix one poll from before the leadership coup, one from the immediate lead-up to it, and one from a month after. This shows Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 in the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged), 52-48 in Queensland (unchanged) and 51-49 in Western Australia (an unusual 53-47 to the Coalition last time), while the Coalition leads 51-48 in South Australia (52-48 to Labor last time).
• The Guardian reports on another poll in Wentworth, conducted for the Refugee Council of Australia, which I’m going to assume was a ReachTEL although the report doesn’t say. This one is particularly interesting in providing two-party results for Liberal-versus-Phelps as well as Liberal-versus-Labor. This suggests Phelps will win 53-47 if only she can get ahead of Labor. However, the primary votes suggest she has a hurdle to clear, with Dave Sharma (Liberal) on 38.1%, Tim Murray (Labor) on 24.5%, Kerryn Phelps (independent) on 15.9% and others in single digits (there may be an undecided component in the mix of perhaps around 5% or 6% as well). The Liberal-versus-Labor result is consistent with earlier polling in showing it to be extemely close: 50-50 in this case. However, as with the previous polls, this is based on Labor receiving around two-third of preferences from mostly conservative independent candidates, which seems a bit much. The sample for the poll was 870; no field work date is provided. UPDATE: Ben Raue has provided the full numbers. After inclusion of a forced response follow-up for the 4.8% undecided, the primary votes are Sharma 39.9%, Murray 25.0%, Phelps 17.3%, Greens 9.1%, Heath 3.6%. Respondents were also asked how they had voted in 2016, and the responses are fairly well in line with the actual result.
Also on Wentworth, my guide to the by-election has been expanded and updated. Antony Green’s guide offers a particularly useful survey of the how-to-vote card situation that makes use of the term “virtue signalling”. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph has taken aim at the Greens for putting Labor ahead of Kerryn Phelps – which, he correctly notes, reduces her chances of overtaking Labor and making the final count, at which she would receive a stronger flow of preferences than Labor and thus stand a better chance of defeating the Liberals. But as Antony Green also rightly notes, “Green voters are a tough flock to herd”.
GG:
Oh, I could see a few going independent. However, I think the likelihood of any who choose to do that not supporting the government in confidence and supply is pretty damn slim. Most likely, they would go the Kevin Hogan route.
The other factor about a loss of another MHR is management of Government business. The pressure to not slip up will be immense and Labor is bound to weaponise their Parliamentary tactics.
Either that, or they are basing their stokinng that fear of a Liberal loss threatening to bring down the Government on the anticipation some Coalition MP’s will either abstain or vote “Aye” to no confidence in their own Government.
It is an odd and ironic pitch: “You must rally behind your Liberal Government, because the members of that very Government cannot be trusted to rally behind themselves”!!!
Losing Wentworth won’t bring about a vote of no confidence. Not a chance.
What it might do is make governing look less palatable to scomo than losing an election.
If they aren’t passing any legislation, and they are just being made to look like idiots every day in parliament, then they might go for an earlier election to limit the damage.
Thanks KayJay, ‘fess, Itza and dtt! 🙂
Go Medicare! A blessing upon Australia.
‘vote1julia says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 7:02 am
William reports, above, that in Wentworth “Greens [are] putting Labor ahead of Kerryn Phelps.”
Where is the outrage from the Greens haters on this blog? Surely this must a be a Greens ruse? But wait, Phelps is preferencing the Liberals. This may have something to do with it. A united progressive left, hard to beat.’
This is the Greens being totally politically stupid and totally self-righteous, at both of which they excel. Phelps has to get ahead of Labor in order to beat Sharma. The correct choice for the Greens to defeat Sharma and weaken the Morrison Government was to preference Phelps above Labor.
But, no.
Shellbell,
Congratulations to Mrs Shellbell! It sounds like she deserves it. However, Sharn from Survivor is a very tough adversary! 😀
Good Morning
I see the vote compass results have not stopped the right wing posters from pretending they are left wing.
If you listen to them the Greens putting Labor first is wrong. If you listen to them the Greens putting the LNP before the Labor party is wrong.
These are the same posters that condemn Phelps for maximising her political chances after being attacked for being Labor saying she would preference the LNP before Labor.
The truth is if Labor does get the front position then Labor needs those Green preferences to help defeat the LNP and stay in front.
shellbell
Great news. A highly under-reported part of work in the legal profession. Good luck to her.
KayJay @ #134 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 5:33 am
Or Mrs Shellbell’s less significant other half. 🙂
With all the hysteria about Kavanaughs confirmation, and its possible effect on abortion, things in the US might even get as bad as in Australia where abortion is still illegal in one state and not available in another.
“Abortions are practised at a handful of private clinics but the practice remains illegal under Queensland’s criminal code.”
Victoria
I think you should follow this guy if you don’t already. He examines the Brexit debacle with a an eye on the Russians and its links to the US elections. I started following him due to his comments on the Leveson inquiry into UK media
@peterjukes tweets
Some poltical cartoons compact a dozen editorials into one unforgettable image. This by Bruce McKinnon. https://twitter.com/peterjukes/status/1048879369538744320/photo/1
BK
‘Nicole Hemmer explains how the anger building up in women in America is palpable.’
It may well be building up in many women. However, many tens of millions of women are going to vote for GOP candidates.
Is their lack of anger palpable?
Boerwar @ #156 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 9:20 am
Or is it just Di Natale being Di Natale? He seems to have form when it comes to doing things that benefit the Liberals at the expense of Labor, particularly if/when anything important is actually in play.
I think the Greens just need a new leader.
Dio
Yep. It will get back to the bad old days: rich women fly to wherever; poor women head to the backyarders.
Gillard was prescient about this, but was howled down at the time.
‘a r says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 10:31 am
Boerwar @ #156 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 9:20 am
This is the Greens being totally politically stupid and totally self-righteous
Or is it just Di Natale being Di Natale? He seems to have form when it comes to doing things that benefit the Liberals at the expense of Labor, particularly if/when anything important is actually in play.
I think the Greens just need a new leader.’
The Greens need to understand that they are part of the problem: Morrison loves the Greens.
GG
‘…as the house pedant ‘
Sorry, what? I’m very very far from that.
Why the snark? I critiqued an article. You put forward better arguments than the journo did. I said your arguments were better than the journos, and if the journo had put forward similar arguments he would have a better case.
But hey, if you want to ignore compliments and attack someone who’s basically agreeing with you, go ahead.
You seem to be a little hot under the collar!
NSW LNP having a train wreck of a presser now.
Opera House then trains
One example of NSW train problem
Alex Dennis tweets
Town Hall station overcrowding to force staff to slow access at peak https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/town-hall-station-overcrowding-to-force-staff-to-slow-access-at-peak-20180921-p5056j.html via @smh
I have a sort of feeling that the ad on the Opera House is a bit like Newman’s shutting down the Premier’s Book Prize and giving the savings to a goat race.
It hurts the amour propre of the Doctors’ Wives.
And losing Wentworth would (I think!) mean that the government still had more reps in the House than Gillard had.
@guardian tweets
Treasury weighs up tax break for landlords who sell to generation rent https://trib.al/1P8jgLt
GG
No, puzzled by your aggro, which seems entirely misplaced.
BW
Alabama, Texas and Mississippi have legally available abortions making them more progressive than the redneck Queenslanders and yokel Tasmanians.
Tanya Plibersek reading the electorate better than GG
Highlighting sexual harassment in the workplace. This case being cabin crew on airlines.
Boerwar @ #163 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 9:30 am
That’s statistically implausible, if not strictly impossible.
Voter turnout for a U.S. midterm election tends to be around 40% of eligible voters. If we assume approximately half those voters are women, and generously assume that about half of women voters will vote Republican, that puts about 23 million women voters in play on the GOP side.
So “a couple tens of million”, perhaps. But certainly not “many tens of million”. There just plain aren’t that many!
No, but their lack of intelligent, objective self-interest certainly is.
These are people who fit right in with Sarah “I can see Russia from my house, and that’s my foreign policy experience!” Palin.
Diogenes @ #175 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 9:43 am
I thought the QLD Labor government fixed that, recently?
ar
They are looking at it and the vote is expected to be close.
“This month the Queensland parliament is due to debate a bill that will remove abortion from the criminal code. It would allow for termination of pregnancy up to 22 weeks, and thereafter with the approval of medical professionals.”
Dio:
[‘…redneck Queenslanders…’]
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/abortion-laws-coming-to-qld-parliament
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/08/queensland-doctors-accused-of-deep-disrespect-for-women-seeking-abortion?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I would add, Dio, that we don’t have a legislative council up here, so the passage of the bill is almost guaranteed, save for any Labor members who are agin abortion.
ItzaDream @ #122 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 9:18 am
It would be easy to mistakenly infer from that that Licia Heath is gay. That is not the case. My intention was to say that thinking gays would likely follow thinking gays (Alex Greenwich) and Clover Moore’s (huge gay support base) preferred candidate.
Aunt Mavis
I think Queensland would have had this law reform earlier if an upper house existed in Queensland.
I think Queensland would then be closer to NSW in its politics. The whole “redneck” thing would not be as prevalent as more diverse voices would be heard. That includes things like having the same voting system as NSW.
This is why I think Queensland gets that redneck label. A leftover from the bad old days. I think an upper house would have prevented the gerrymander of the Joh era and thus the white shoe brigade resembling a US state including on social policies would not have happened.
A lot of what if of course. Fantasy but thats my opinion on an upper house. Thats why I think Queensland has paid a heavy price for abolishing it.
‘Diogenes says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 10:43 am
BW
Alabama, Texas and Mississippi have legally available abortions making them more progressive than the redneck Queenslanders and yokel Tasmanians.’
Sort of agree.
The situation in Queensland and Tasmania is a disgrace, IMO, but there is some sort of prospect for an improvement in both states.
The general difference between Australia and the US is that, if there are trends, then the trend in access in Australia are either static or improving, whereas in the US the trend in access is in retreat with every prospect that it will get considerably worse over the coming decades.
Itza,
I would say that Tim Murray is concentrating his campaign resources in the less salubrious end of the electorate, not where you are. ; )
ar
OK. I resile from ‘many tens of millions’ to over 20,000,000 women voters who are not palpably more angry and are so palpably happy with what the GOP are doing and with Kavanaugh that they are going to vote GOP in the coming elections.
Many more tens of millions are so palpably unangry about all this that they will not vote at all.
Are verbal lynch mobs and verbal echo chambers the enemies of democracy?
Is it time to burn some books, somewhere/
Break some glass?
BW
I see you are fully on board Trump’s train now. Opposition means anarchy. Same strategy Putin uses.
Boerwar
Not just any old goat race.It was the Barcaldine Goat Races. Oh what a memorable headline that made .
Those American States might look more progressive at first blush but my understanding is that it is both very difficult to get an abortion due to overt restrictions, plus, as there may be only one clinic in the State, also very difficult and costly for the indigent to get to.
ABC fail again.
Iview has crashed as so many people (including me) trying to watch the new series of Dr .Who.
Get rid of the useless and low rating radio national etc. and put some money into bandwidth.
Grrr…..
Aunt Mavis
I think it’s a conscience vote for Labor. It’s not a done deal.
Thanks for the heads-up HH. I’ll hold off until this arvo, and catch Dr Who on the ol’ idiot box.
“– essentially a reserve power for emergencies.”
NSW politician going into an election. Alan Jones going all nasty, shouty, hot bothered and sweaty??
If that doesn’t constitute and emergency..what does!!!! 🙂
HH
ABC cuts might not be to blame. Could be NBN issues. Of course a bigger server farm for the ABC would be good to access.
@channelten tweets
Scott Morrison has laughed off critics of racing ads to be displayed on the Sydney Opera House as public anger grows.
https://tendaily.com.au/news/australia/a181007gsb/pm-laughs-off-opera-house-anger-its-not-as-though-theyre-painting-it-20181007
Story by @alexbrucesmith
C@t
They certainly put hurdles in the way like a cooling off period, parental consent, mandatory ultrasound etc.
GG
I am not disputing that there could be panic in the LNP but can you help by puting names to these
I can think of two nationals, plus Banks, Laundy and maybe Prentice. I guess Wyatt
IF there was a formal split, say led by Julie Bishop then of the MPs I could see Chisolm (Banks), Robertson (wicks), Hasluck (Wyatt), Corangamite (Henderson), Leichardt (Entch), Bribane (Evans), Reid (Laundy), Mcmillan (Broadbent) and Stirling (Keenan) among the more marginals. Just not sure about Capricornia, Forde, Flynn, Casey,Swan. Of those in safer seats I guess O’Dwyer, Alexander might switch.
Anyone have comments – I am not the least certain of this.
Obviously the US Supreme Court is very proud of its members where there are now more accused of sexual misconduct than there are women, 3:2, great work United States.
A few of things people have being throwing around:
1. Chipping away at the edges of Roe v Wade, just making it harder for poor and rural women to access the service, and obviously advantaging those in Dem States and hurting those in Republican states.
2. Roe v Wade goes, and there are already laws in some states to make them as bad as Queensland.
3. There is talk of a legal challenge to the nature of the Country and State, such that it would be double jeopardy to be prosecuted under State law for a similar Federal law, where say you have been pardoned of the Federal crime. Some have suggested this is really what got Kavanagh to the head of the pack.
4. Talk of actually making ‘being born once you are conceived’ a constitutional right and effectively making it impossible for States to not criminalise abortion.
All these things and more are possible with a partisan activist republican Supreme Court.
I’m not a huge fan of the nature or quality of our High Court, nor is Queensland’s position on abortion acceptable, nor is Tasmanias, nor are the prostitution laws in WA (and I assume in other places). But we are so far ahead it is ridiculous.